Super Bowl Matchups

Hi Folks,

Here�s how we see the matchup this weekend.�� As always, please refer to the cheatsheets for the final say on where we see a player.�� Just because a great player has a bad matchup doesn�t mean he�s not your starter this weekend.� We just offer the Matchup Analysis here as one more piece of the puzzle as you�re looking at this week�s game.

Let�s jump to it.

Joe Bryant and Mark Wimer

Tampa Bay�s Mike Alstott/Michael Pittman vs. The Oakland Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Last week, Mike Alstott eked out 25 yards on the ground in the course of 17 carries � a whole 1.5 yards per carry! His effort led the Buccaneers rushing attack � Michael Pittman gained 17 yards on 8 carries, while the team finished with 49 yards on 32 carries (that 1/5 yards-per-carry averaged, again) with 1 touchdown (scored by Mike Alstott on the goal line). Two weeks ago, against a very banged up 49�ers squad, the two combined for 101 yards of rushing and 2 Alstott scores, but neither back averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry in that game, either. The Alstott � Pittman tandem has had trouble generating much yardage on a consistent basis during the 2002 regular- and post-season.

These two teams have not met since the new millennium, so recent history is no guide in evaluating the matchup.

Oakland played the rush fairly tough at points this year, and finished the 2002 regular season strong, ranking 3^rd in yards allowed over the final four weeks of the season, giving up only 78 yards per contest. During that span they did allow some scoring, however, and were ranked 13^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that span. Last week, the Raiders were vulnerable to Eddie George (67 yards on only 15 carries) and Steve McNair (5 rushes for 53 yards and 2 scores). The week before that, Curtis Martin led the Jets with 74 yards on 16 carries, and the Jets amassed 120 yards on 24 carries as a team (a 5.0 yards per carry average). The Raiders� defensive front hasn�t dominated either of their opponent�s rushing attacks during the playoffs.

The Raiders come into the game without DE Trace Armstrong (groin injury), and the other starting DE Regan Upshaw has a sore tailbone. Tampa does not list any member of their unit on the injury report, including RG Cosey Coleman, who sprained his right knee last week � Coleman returned to finish the game wearing a brace on the injured joint.

The weather in San Diego during the days leading up to the game is forecast to be very pleasant and mild, with no precipitation. On Sunday the conditions are expected to be mostly sunny, with a high of 70�F and a low of 54�F � perfect football weather.

The Tampa Bay rushing attack is the weakest phase of their game. Oakland isn�t defending the run particularly well in the playoffs. If Alstott, Pittman and the offensive line bring their �A� game on Sunday, they could enjoy modest success running the ball � they have a chance, at least. This matchup looks about even heading into the Super Bowl.

Oakland�s Charlie Garner and Company vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Charlie Garner just gets the job done week in and week out. Last week, against Tennessee, he had 91 yards of total offense (7/36 yards rushing, and 7/55 yards receiving with a touchdown reception). Vs. N.Y. the previous week, he rushed the ball 21 times for 93 yards, and snagged 3 balls for 26 yards receiving. His supporting cast does what they do best � Zack Crockett scores short touchdowns (2 scores, on 3 carries, in the playoffs), and Tyrone Wheatley provides change of pace carries in situations where a big back is called for, or when Garner needs a breather. They comprise one of the most lethal backfields in professional football.

Tampa Bay fields one of the finest defenses in the NFL, and they are tough on opposing backs. In the closing weeks of the 2002 regular season (over the final four games), Tampa allowed 98 yards of rushing per game on average (10^th in the league), but ranked 2^nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that span � it is tough to score rushing touchdowns against these guys. In the playoffs, Duce Staley managed an early score against the Bucs last week, but was basically shut down after the early part of the first quarter (he generated 20 of his 58 yards rushing on that rushing score, and then got 38 yards on his other 12 carries during the game).McNabb, Westbrook and Levens were essentially non-factors in the rushing phase last week, as well. Garrison Hearst put up 55 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago, and added 29 yards on 4 receptions (no scores though).

Tampa�s defensive front is a little banged up � starting DT�s Chartric Darby (calf) and Warren Sapp (shoulder), and backup DE Ellis Wyms (ankle) all appear on the injury report, but they are all listed as probable to play. Oakland�s starting C Barret Robbins is still nursing his sore foot. His backup Adam Treu is very solid and experienced so depth isn�t a problem at the position for the Raiders, if Robbins can�t go or is knocked out of the game (Robbins is questionable to play).

Oakland has a potent rushing attack, and Tampa has a powerful and stingy defensive front. It�s a matchup of roughly equally talented units � in other words, a neutral matchup.

Tampa Bay�s Passing Attack vs. The Oakland Defense (Tough Matchup)

Sometimes, it only takes one play to turn around a game. Tampa�s third receiver, Joe Jurevicius, was the guy who made that play last week against the Eagles. In the early going, Brad Johnson was struggling, and simply was not in sync or confident � his interception came on a horrible pass, and it was looking grim for the Buccaneer�s faithful when Jurevicius turned a short pass into a big, 71 yard gain that set up Mike Alstott�s touchdown. Tampa never trailed in the game again. This week, the Buccaneers face another potent secondary in the Oakland Raiders, and Brad Johnson will need either Jurevicius or Keenan McCardell to provide a few big plays so that Keyshawn Johnson can shake loose from Oakland�s coverage. Brad Johnson shook off his bad start last week and ended up 20/33 for 259 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. He was also adequate against San Francisco, managing 15 completions on 31 attempts for 196 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception two weeks ago.

Oakland�s secondary has been reconstituted since the final weeks of the 2002 regular season, when the team was 21^st in the NFL allowing 224 yards per contest on average (over the final four games of the season). Charles Woodson has come back into the lineup after a surgical repair of his fractured fibula, and has been playing well during the playoffs. They smothered Chad Pennington and the Jets two weeks ago � they shut down the Jets� quarterback and receivers after half-time in that game. They allowed 1 passing touchdown to the Titans last week, in the first quarter, and then denied the receivers any further scores. Pennington threw for 183 yards (2 interceptions) in his try, while McNair managed 194 (0 interceptions). Charles Woodson, Tory James, Rod Woodson and Anthony Dorsett (the Raiders� starting tandem of DB�s) combined for 24 tackles last week vs. Tennessee. They are playing great pass defense right now.

Only CB Charles Woodson (leg) appears on the injury report for either unit, and he�s probable, so injuries aren�t a factor heading into the game.

Oakland�s secondary is playing very well in the playoffs. Tampa Bay�s unit has done well enough to win their games, but Brad Johnson has not been dominant in his appearances. Oakland looks like the better unit heading into the Super Bowl.

Oakland�s Passing Game vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Rich Gannon is the MVP of the NFL on the strength of his 4689 yards passing (418 completions, an NFL record), with 26 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions during the regular season. He has 49 completions on 71 attempts (69%) for 569 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception during the playoffs, and added a rushing touchdown during his 29/41 for 286 yards, 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions effort last week vs. Tennessee. He has the greatest receiver of all time on his team, Jerry Rice, and sure hall-of-famer Tim Brown to complement Rice. He also tosses the rock to up-and-coming star Jerry Porter (10 catches for 175 yards and 2 scores during the playoffs), and when those three WR�s aren�t open he hits TE Doug Jolley or dual-threat RB Charlie Garner. Starting FB Jon Ritchie has also caught one ball in each playoff game, each time gaining 14 yards. They are the best aerial attack in the NFL, without question.

Tampa Bay�s secondary is the best pass defense in the NFL this season, and they have the statistics to prove it. Over the final four weeks of the regular season, they gave up 166 yards per game (1^st in the NFL), and ranked 1^st, 4^th, and 10^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends during that span. In their playoff games so far, they strangled Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens two weeks ago, allowing Garcia only 22 completions on 41 attempts for 193 yards, 0 scores and 3 interceptions. Last week they kept Donovan McNabb and company out of the end-zone (26/49 for 243 yards), and Ronde Barber put the game away with a 92-yard interception return for a touchdown� as the Eagles threatened to score late in the fourth quarter. LB Derrick Brooks (118 tackles, 1 forced fumble and 5 interceptions) was defensive player of the year, and starts in the Pro Bowl. SS John Lynch is also starting in the Pro-Bowl, and Brian Kelly is the star who lines up at the other corner across from Barber. Playing at nickel back vs. 3 receiver sets, backup CB Dwight Smith will be under the gun often in this game. He is a 2^nd year player, with impressive numbers for a part-time player (26 solo tackles, 1 forced fumble and 4 interceptions in 2002). There is no better unit anywhere in the league.

Neither unit lists injuries of note on the report going into the Super Bowl (although former starting TE Roland Williams is out due to torn knee and toe ligaments, Jolley has been outstanding in the TE position since he moved into the starting lineup).

The best aerial assault in the NFL faces the best pass defense in the NFL in this matchup. Neither has the upper hand going into the game.

/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/

Enjoy the Super Bowl, everyone! This matchup will make it a barn-burner of a game to watch � it should be excellent! It�s been a great season. Thanks for reading! � Mark and Joe.