So you love projections do you? You think that by projecting this years stats based on previous years that you would have a foolproof plan to go into battle with? I do not blame anyone for wanting hard numbers but I think a much easier and better way is to grade on a system that allows for 5 categories and than give a letter grade for each category.

Let me say that I am not a hardcore VBD person. I think you draft as many high quality horses for your team within buckets and tiers as possible and than see how the season unfolds. Some folks might feel that there is a whole lotta faith involved here but I would say the same about plugging in numbers that are or can be terribly wrong. And once off course sometimes it is hard to get that ship heading towards its original destination, "Fantasy Bowl Island".

I have altered the weight of the categories slightly. I am starting with Opportunity and Ability, which are worth 30% each. Next is surrounding cast, which will be worth 20%. And the final 2 categories are schedule and intangibles for things like legal problems, fumbles, etc. Each of those is worth a weight of 10% each. So basically it is 30/30/20/10/10.

Look it is about not getting burned. If I take Eddie George's numbers over the past 3 seasons and use that average for projecting this season he will be a top12 pick. Do I really want Eddie George as my number 1 back? Not really based on what I have seen of him over the past couple of seasons. But when I factor in his ability, opportunity, cast, sched, and intangibles I come up with a very average score for Eddie and he winds up being nowhere near the top15 or so. If I have to project hard numbers though based on a wonderful career I might take him too early. Eddie is just one example.

Let's get to my RB rankings. I stress the RB because they are so crucial in most leagues. It is very hard to win without them.

LaDainian Tomlinson:

• Opp: (A): He is option number 1 on the play charts.
• Abi: (A): Deceptive speed and has great hands. Can run between the Tackles too.
• Cast: (B): Jury is still out on Brees. Boston is an upgrade.
• Sch: (B+): Plays in the AFC West plus Cle, Chi, Cin, Minn, and Det.
• Int: (A): Cannot for see any reason why he cannot repeat last season. Defense is still shaky so SD has to score points in bunches to win.

Total: (A): As close to a sure thing as you are going to get. No one behind him right now to vulture TD away from him either.

The next 3 RB are almost as good as LT2 and I would not hesitate to grab any of them. Please remember that we are also bucketing these players so I am not necessarily ranking them straight down in order. You want to have different tiers with multiple players so you can find fairly equal production.

Clinton Portis:

• Opp: (B+): Probably not going to get 25-30 carries a game very often. Is involved in the passing game but we only have 1 season to base that on.
• Abi:(A+): Has an extra gear in the speed dept that most other RB do not have.
• Cast: (C+): How much stock do you put in Jake Plummer? Rod and Ed are not getting younger. Has a good OL in front of him however.
• Sch: (B+): Similar to Tomlinson, plus a lot of the same teams.
• Int: (A): All signs are good for Portis as long as he does not complain about his contract too much. Denver RB always seem to do well.

Total: (A-): Great RB that is explosive and had not reached his full potential yet. Scary thought.

Ricky Williams:

• Opp: (A): Is definitely option 1 for Wanny.
• Abi: (A): Power and speed. Great vision and can catch out of the backfield.
• Cast: (B): Good line in front of him. QB is a bit messy. Chambers plus McMichael strengthen the passing game.
• Sch: (B): Not too easy and not terrible either. He is getting the ball either way though.
• Int: (B): Possible QB situation brewing. Wanny can self-destruct any team. Defense SHOULD give him ample opportunities with a short field. Grass is better for him than turf.

Total: (A-): Should pick up where he left off.

Marshall Faulk:

• Opp: (B+): There are many weapons in StL and he never runs 30 times a game.
• Abi: (A+): Can run, catch and break'em long. Looks like Dickerson when he strides. He also excels in traffic.
• Cast: (A+): Great OL, QB and set of WR. Who works with a better surrounding cast?
• Sch: (C+): Not easy. @NYG, and has a 5 game stretch of Atlanta (much improved), GB, Pitt, SF, Balt. Still the offense is too good to be bottled up.
• Int: (C): He misses games every year. He is entering his 10th season, 31 years old.

Total: (A-): I think Faulk will bounce back very well as will the Rams. Glad to see folks are down on him. They (Rams) will be standing tall in the fantasy world this season.

Now we move to the (B+) category where we find 3 more RB. I am inclined to not even look at other positions till we make it past the next 3 for sure and possibly even a bit further.

Shaun Alexander:

• Opp: (B): Gets a lot of touches but not too many. 320-340 carries. 40-55 catches.
• Abi: (A): We know he has speed. 5 TD game last season. Enough said.
• Cast: (A-): Great OL in front of him. Good trio of WR and Hasselbeck is getting better.
• Sch: (B): NO, AZ, Chi, Cin, Det, Cle, MN, all points to good games.
• Int: (B): Does have MM behind him. Holmgren will not tolerate fumbles or missed hitting the holes.

Total: (B+): A little more consistency game to game is all we ask Shaun.

Priest Holmes:

• Opp: (A): As long as he is healthy, he sees the ball a lot.
• Abi: (B): I know I will take some flack for this but he got injured last season because he really is not as fast as some think. He catches well but my God the holes he has to run through. Also he runs the ball a lot when the Chiefs are already down by 14. Defenses are expecting pass.
• Cast: (B+): Perhaps the best OL in football in front of him. Green can air it out. Gonzo at TE.
• Sch: (B+): AFC West. Does close out with Denver, Detroit, and Minnesota.
• Int: (C+): Sorry but he had a bad hip injury. I want to see it take a pounding this season. Contract disputes with one of the biggest tightwads in the game. I still love Priest and rode him last season up to the Fantasy Bowl.

Total: (B+): Maybe not quite as much as the past 2 seasons but even a 10 or 20% drop is still pretty darn good.

Deuce McAllister:

• Opp: (A): Touches the ball a lot.
• Abi: (A): Power and speed, Lethal Weapon.
• Cast: (B+): Brooks gets shaky. Horn is great. Stallworth needs to play a whole season but looked good. OL lost Turley and Roaf the past couple seasons but replaces it with Gandy. Still the chemistry has to be accounted for.
• Sch: (D+): I realize he plays well against good teams thus far. But check this out. He plays TB(2), Car(2)they are much improved, Atl(2) also much better on D, Houston, @Tenn, INDY, @Philly, @Wash, and the NY Giants This is a brutal schedule. There is a lot of talent on that offense so it should balance out but he is not going up against the AFC West.
• Int: (B-): As great as his power is, it can lead to injuries. Also that dome he plays in is awful for knees and ankles. I hope he makes it unscathed this season.

Total: (B+): Lots of upside.

The next 4 RB are still pretty high on most people's boards. A few have some questions entering the season.
By the way, if you are wondering the difference between say the (B+) and the (A-) let me try and help. No one knows for sure what these guys are going to end up with. But in my mind the RB are listed in pools and tiers that give us the best chance to win. Coaches for example do not know exactly what their QB,RB, WR will produce every week but they try and piece together a starting lineup that gives them the best chance to win. A coach might feel he needs to score 20 points to win this week but he does not know if all 20 are going to be via the QB/WR combo etc. Try and keep an open mind and realize you need a lot of depth to win your leagues so stockpile the guys with the best ability and opportunities to succeed and you yourself will end up with success. Next group.

Ahman Green:

• Opp: (B-): There is a buzz brewing that he will see a few less carries.
• Abi: (B+): Can catch and run. Favre looks for him out of the backfield.
• Cast: (B+): Favre, Driver, Franks, and a solid OL in front of him.
• Sch: (A-):Det, Mn, Chi twice each. Close with Det, Chi, SD, Oak, and Denver.
• Int: (B): Still fumbles a bit. Don't get too worked up over Davenport either.

Total: (B): will have another good season. Also has a decent QB to air it out and take pressure off him.

Travis Henry:

• Opp: (A): Carries the ball a lot. Is supposed to be in the passing game more this season with the departure of Peerless Price. Gary being on the team does not bother me and McGahee is a year away.
• Abi: (C+): And here is where I differ with a lot of folks. I do not think Henry is nearly as gifted as some of the other RB on the board. And neither do the Bills since they spent a 1st rounder on McGahee. Henry might get a lot more balls thrown his way, but that does not mean he will catch them all. His speed is questionable. He fumbles and I think is vision for the holes is average. I know Bills fans will gang up on me but I am just calling what I see here folks.
• Cast: (B-): Good QB in Bledsoe. Has a top line WR with Moulds. OL is good but not great. Price leaving hurts the overall offense.
• Sch: (C+): Miami and NE twice. Philly, Houston, NYG, and Tenn. Closes with Tenn, Miami, and NE...ouch!
• Int: (B): McGahee being drafted did not exactly send a ringing endorsement from upper mgmt. He should do well overall and have a great chance to be top10 again but I am not prepared to think of him in the same category as the first 7 I went through.

Total: (B): Solid production.

Edgerrin James:

• Opp: (B): Backfield now has Mungro added to mix things up. He should carry it 20 times a game if all goes according to plan. He is talented out of the backfield too.
• Abi: (A): No question about his skills assuming he is healthy.
• Cast: (B): Would like to see a better #2 WR to make the offense unstoppable. OL is OK.
• Sch: (C): Some easier and some really tough ones including Houston and Tenn twice plus Miami, TB, Carolina.
• Int: (C+): Is he healthy? That is the real key to him having a great year. If it shows in training camp he is 100% than I might be inclined to bump his intangible score up. Dungy should want to use Edge as much as possible without re-injuring him.

Total: (B): Obvious upside but comes with some danger.

Jamal Lewis:

• Opp: (B+): Should be the best option for Billick and company to go to. Stellar defense should lead to short fields and ample short runs to the end zone that even Redman/Boller could not mess up.
• Abi: (B-): Has good power but not a whole lot of agility. Likes to tuck his nose in behind his Guard and plow forward. Does have decent hands out of the backfield but certainly no Marshall Faulk.
• Cast: (C): Does have a good OL but not a lot at QB and a so so bunch of WR. Does have Todd Heap and he is a weapon defenses have to account for.
• Sch: (B+): They do not have to play themselves twice so that's good. Brownies and Bengals twice, SD, KC, AZ(all early so he will come out of the gate very strong), Denver, Jax. It gets a little tougher with Miami, Seattle, and SF. They open and close the season with the Steelers so essentially you dodge a bullet there unless you play into week 17.
• Int: (B): Has recovered from his knee injury but he gets hurt a lot. Missed an entire season and he missed a rookie camp with a dislocated elbow. Missed some major time in college too.

Total: (B): Solid but not flashy.

Now the question that begs to be asked is would I take Jamal Lewis or some of the other (B) tier RB before say Marvin Harrison. I think it depends on how many teams there are. I would look at Green and Henry very hard. Assuming I was picking at the end of the 1st round, I might combine Edge/Lewis with Harrison/Owens pick, something along those lines. But you will see that the field gets very thin at RB by the end of the 3rd round in a 12-16-team league. Ten team leagues have more flexibility.

Also worth noting as we go is that you are going to disagree with some things which is great. But remember just because a player pops up in a certain pool does not mean you have to draft him in that order. In fact you are looking for players that are projected to do well but are being drafted later. That is called value and you will find very little of it with the top RB in the league. You have to look a lot deeper to find them.

Another thing to keep in mind is that many of the top backs are what I like to refer to as "Double Backs". What is a Double Back? They have the ability to put up enough points on certain weeks to outscore both starting RB you are going up against in your league. How many times did Priest Holmes eclipse 20-25 points last season. Who cared who you started in the other RB slot. Of course if you had Deuce to boot you were kicking some major pigtail most of the season. And on we go.

Charlie Garner:

• Opp: (C): He will never carry it 25 times but he gets a lot of catches to make up for his lack of carries. Almost posted 1,000 rush and rec last season. A career year.
• Abi: (B): Lacks some size but he has great hands and good speed.
• Cast: (A): Great QB and a stable of WR. Good OL in front of him opening holes.
• Sch: (A): AFC West plus Cinci, Chi, Cle, Det, NYJ, MN,. Does close with Pitt, Balt, and GB though. But that is in the playoffs for most FF teams.
• Int: (C): He is getting old. Fargas will spell him and I think see significant playing time.

Total: (B-): As long as he plays for Da Raidahs he will put up points.

Tiki Barber:

• Opp: (B): Is now option 1 running the ball. Catches a lot of passes. Hilliard back might rob him of a few catches.
• Abi: (B): I love it when Tiki gets the ball. He is elusive and sneaks through the line. Quite a bit undersized.
• Cast: (C): Hear me out. Yes I see Shockey, Toomer, and KC(who is really just OK). But I also see where RG Jason Whittle "and" RT Mike Rosenthal were stolen away by the Bucs and Vikes. Who is left? Tam Hopkins, Ian Allen and Jeff Hatch must (ready Joe), step up. AAAAAaarrrgghhhhh. Do not under estimate the value of an OL that stays together.
• Sch: (C): It ain't easy. Miami, NE, and Philly back to back to back. Than it's Atl, Philly, TB,and Buff back to back to back-to-back weeks 10-13.
• Int: (B): Intangibles look good for Tiki. No one will push him for playing time. He is on the field a lot.

Total: (B-): Will do well. Still a good shot at 100 total yds a week.

William Green:

• Opp: (B): Loses some touches to Jamel White who the Browns resigned for several years. I am not expecting big receiving numbers from Green anytime soon.
• Abi: (B): Really made a statement down the stretch last season.
• Cast: (C): QB situation in limbo. Fine stable of WR but that OL is not real good. They picked it up and those big holes Green had to run through at times last season were hopefully a sign of things to come.
• Sch: (C): Pitt and Balt twice, OUCH! Indy, Oak, NE, SF, and Seattle. Some of those are much improved.
• Int: (B): The best is what he closed with down the stretch and avg almost 25 carries a game. Great stuff and we hope it continues.

Total: (B-): Don't get suckered into taking him real high. He will have his big games but they won't be against Pitt and Balt.

Curtis Martin:

• Opp: (B): He still is option number 1 for the Jets running game.
• Abi: (B): Losing a step or 2. Can still catch a lot of balls when asked.
• Cast: (C): Sorry Jets fans but the team has lost a lot. #1WR gone, replaced with an old man. Thomas is gone from the OL.
• Sch: (D): I know they always play Miami and NE tough but he still sees them twice plus a much-improved defense in Buff twice. Houston, Philly, NYG, Indy, Tenn, and Pitt. Really is a hard schedule.
• Int: (C): Getting up there and has wear and tear. Lamont Jordan behind him. If the team falters and I think they will be pressed to win 6 games this season, Curtis may be put out to pasture to see what else is in the backfield.

Total: (B-): He has always been a staple in my backfield. A guy I could count on at the end of the 1st/top of the 2nd round. Not this season I am afraid. Let someone else grab him.

The next 6 RB I feel will put up about the same numbers when all is said. They are not really listed in numerical order but on the same tier.

Corey Dillon:

• Opp: (C+): Does not see the ball late in games because #1 The Bengals are always behind, and #2 He does not catch the ball that well so why throw to him.
• Abi: (B): Good running skills but lacks the receiving skills in my book.
• Cast: (C): Kitna does not excite me but Chad Johnson and a decent OL in front of him helps.
• Sch: (C): Outside of Pitt and Balt twice not too bad. Does get to play the AFC West.
• Int: (B-): Hopefully a new coach will shake things up and lead to great things for Dillon.

Total: (C+): Till we see otherwise he is a big game 1 week disappearance for 2 more weeks kind of RB that should be considered as strictly a #2 RB.

Fred Taylor:

• Opp: (C+): Is Joseph or Toefield now the goal line back?
• Abi: (A): No question he is among the best in the open field. It's getting there that is the problem.
• Cast: (D): Smith is old but still kicking. Brunell is a lame duck. OL is weak. No #2 WR.
• Sch: (C-): BRUTAL! Tenn, Hou, and Indy all twice. Plus Car, Buff, Miami, Balt, and TB. Closes with TB, Hou, and NE.
• Int: (D): Always gets hurt. I have seen enough to know to stay clear.

Total:(C+): Boom or bust. When was his last boom? Last time he had major multiple TD games was back in 2000. It's 2003 now. Wake up folks.

Stephen Davis:

• Opp: (B-): I imagine Carolina will run him quite a bit. Not much of a receiving threat
• Abi: (B-): Pretty much a North South runner.
• Cast: (D+): Dyson is out for the year. Hammy and Smith are OK, QB is a mystery for most. OL is OK.
• Sch: (C-):TB twice. Indy, Tenn, Hou, Philly. Not easy.
• Int: (B): Will be the focus of the power running game in Carolina.

Total: (C+): Should return to at least 1,000 yds on the ground. That is not a projection but a conclusion based on facts.

Onterrio Smith:

• Opp: (D): Bennett went down but still a crowded backfield and Moe Williams gets all the balls inside the 5. Plus a mobile QB that scores running too.
• Abi: (B): Perhaps the steal of the draft. Speed Speed Speed.
• Cast: (B): Great QB and Moss too. OL is vastly improved.
• Sch: (B): Fairly soft outside of the Pack.
• Int: (C): There usually is a rookie from somewhere that does well.

Total: (C+): Keep an eye on Viking camp and see if he does not win that starting job. He will.

Kevan Barlow:

• Opp: (D): Obviously when he becomes the clear #1 this score will change and he moves up. Till than he stays put.
• Abi: (B-): Good hard tough runner. Finds the end zone well.
• Cast (A): Hope Garcia is gonna be OK. Owens has to be accounted for. Great OL blocking in front of him.
• Sch: (B): Not too bad. Should get into some shoot-outs with StL and Seattle. And beat up on Arizona twice.
• Int: (C): Needs to get past Hearst on the depth charts once and for all.

Total: (C+): Watch how camp turns out. If and when he starts games in the backfield instead of coming in during the second quarter like last season and than not again till the 4th, move him up through your Opp score at the least. I see him settling in somewhere in the B tier by the end camp.

Warrick Dunn:

• Opp: (C): Not option 1 on the playbook but he gets his 12-15 carries a game and catches the ball out of the backfield. I think his catches might actually go up this season. Has TJ Duckett he splits time with but Duckett is not as elusive and quite 1 dimensional at this point.
• Abi: (C+): Size hurts him. Has the speed.
• Cast: (B): Vick, Price, Finneran, and a decent OL surround him.
• Sch: (C): Tough division.
• Int: (B): Shows a lot more heart than Duckett right now. Can be counted on to move the ball.

Total: (C+): Under the radar of a lot of owners. Would make a great RB3 in most leagues. Even has starting capability some weeks.

Now we are moving towards RB that are not really top line players. Some might need a little boost and others are like a Star that almost out of hydrogen and turning towards being a Red Dwarf.

Eddie George:

• Opp: (C): Will get spelled by Chris Brown. That has been established from the top.
• Abi: (C): Wear and tear plus lack of speed is taking its toll.
• Cast: (C): Decent OL and McNair but little else excites me.
• Sch: (C): Not easy but it never is for the Titans.
• Int: (D): Wear and tear. Plus a young buck behind him.

Total: (C): Don't be like the turkey in my league last season that wasted a 1st round pick on him.

Trung Candidate:

• Opp: (D): Crowded backfield but he has the skills Spurrier likes.
• Abi: (B): Speed Speed Speed
• Cast: (B): Talent at the WR, good OL, and the QB jury is still out.
• Sch: (C): Philly twice. NE, TB, Car, Buff. Very so so schedule.
• Int: (D): Was acquired for a draft pick to be the Skins RB. He has that going for him but a coach that will yank him quickly if need be plus a crowded backfield.

Total: (C): I expect good things out of Trung but I am not going to waste a high pick on him.

Stacey Mack:

• Opp: (B): Will be given a lot of carries. Wells showed he is no NFL RB last season.
• Abi: (C): Runs hard. Not a great receiver though.
• Cast: (D): There is talent but it is all young. Very young.
• Sch: (C): Tough division.
• Int: (C): Pretty much was assured starter job when he signed.

Total: (C): Very average back. Should put up very average numbers. Good bye week filler for a lot of teams.

Amos Zereoue:

• Opp: (D): Bettis still lurks and will touch the ball.
• Abi: (C+): The real reason he does not start all the time is he is not that great. Just plays for Pitt so people expect greatness. He is not Bettis, or Foster like.
• Cast: (B+): Benefits immensely from a solid OL and great WR.
• Sch: (B): Outside of the Ravens twice, not bad.
• Int: (D): Bettis plays a huge factor here.

Total: (C): Could be higher if anointed the starter. Could sink lower if Bettis wins the job again.

James Stewart:

• Opp: (C): Does have a rookie behind him with some buzz.
• Abi: (C-): Never was much of a receiver. Plows ahead.
• Cast: (D): Young, very young.
• Sch: (B): Not real hard.
• Int: (C-): Getting old and not really making things happen for the Lions.

Total: (C): RB3 material.

Next group

Deuce Staley:

• Opp: (D): Buckhalter is coming up strong
• Abi (D): Should convert to a WR. Not a great runner and not a short yardage back either.
• Cast: (A): Best OL and maybe QB in the game around him.
• Sch: (C): Tough schedule to an extent.
• Int: (D): Reid wants to replace him a lot. Not good.

Total: (C-): Try to get Buckhalter instead.

Anthony Thomas:

• Opp: (C): Lot of rumblings about Adrian Peterson.
• Abi: (C): Basically a North South runner
• Cast: (D): Shaky QB and OL around him
• Sch: (B): Not bad
• Int: (D): Not good to see he was benched at the end of last season even though he felt he could play through the injury.

Total :(C-): I pass this year.

Michael Pittman:

• Opp: (C): Gruden is not going to start running him 25 times a game anytime soon.
• Abi: (D): Better criminal than a runner.
• Cast: (B): Is talent around him
• Sch: (C-): Bucs got a tough schedule this season and they should after they won the SB.
• Int: (F): Has legal problems, Thomas Jones, and a terrible ypc avg from last season working against him.

Total: (C-): I think you know how I feel here.

And finally our "D" category. I tried to take the top back on each team or projected starter at this point in time and rate them accordingly. I might grab other backup RB before I would grab one of the guys previously mentioned as well as these final 3.

Troy Hambrick:

• Opp: (C): I am sure Parcells will call his number
• Abi: (C): Camp to camp fat. Not a good sign.
• Cast: (F): Hutch/Carter, who cares? OL is terrible. WR are somewhat an improvement but no one to really throw the ball to them.
• Sch: (C): Middle of the road.
• Int: (C): Wiley might get a strong look at some point. The Cowgirls are not fooling anyone this season. They are rebuilding.

Total: (D): look elsewhere unless he is there in the double-digit rounds.

Antowain Smith:

• Opp: (C): The Pats like to air it out.
• Abi: (D): Slow slow ssssslllllllooooowwwww.
• Cast: (D): WR are marginal. OL is fair. QB is OK.
• Sch: (C): Not real easy.
• Int: (D): Short leash on this guy. Has hurt the Pats recently after helping them win the SB.

Total: (D): Not much talent or vision. Look elsewhere.

Emmitt Smith:

• Opp: (C-): Will see Shipp carry it some.
• Abi: (C-): Was never a great receiver. Skills have eroded here.
• Cast (F-): Just nothing to hang your hat on.. OK, the OL is improving but QB/WR is awful right now.
• Sch: (C): Everyone the Cards play is a tough game.
• Int: (D-): I just hope he does not get hurt. I would have liked to see him walk out with a star on his helmet not stars circling his head.

Total: (D): Good luck in Arizona.

I hope you enjoyed this exercise. I realize that without the WR and QB grades it is tough to know exactly where to take these guys. Most of you are very intelligent though and can figure out a good place to look for your sleeper RB this season. Again the goal is to have as many top horses in your stable as possible. Depth is key. As far as projections let me say this. The likelihood that a 2,000 yd back with 20 TD will come out of the (A or A-) group is much higher than those found in the (B or B-) group. So you can project an "APPROXIMATE" or a "RANGE" that certain backs will fall into. I think that it is important to know and possibly a wise thing to do. But to take 1 back over another back because he is going to score 8 more points according to your projections and it costs you a top flight WR because you jump the gun in a pool that has a lot of RB is not wise.

Have fun with your drafts and let me know how it goes.