Carolina Panthers (+6) at Minnesota Vikings

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
1
QB
Daunte Culpepper
Min
13
QB
Rodney Peete
Car
17
RB
Lamar Smith
Car
29
RB
Moe Williams
Min
1
WR
Randy Moss
Min
30
RB
Michael Bennett
Min
9
WR
Muhsin Muhammad
Car
34
WR
Steve Smith
Car
11
TE
Byron Chamberlain (Q)
Min
13
TE
Wesley Walls
Car

Lots of good plays in this game with the surprising Panthers providing some good possibilities as well. Even Peete is a plausible starter this week as the Vikings haven't stopped much in the air this year. On the other hand, Carolina has put up some stellar defensive stats this season, but their schedule (Baltimore and Detroit) has been extra kind. Minnesota will be their first actual test. On the ground, Lamar Smith has been better than anyone (even Head Coach Jon Fox) expected. But again, the competition has been lacking for Carolina. The Vikings running game has looked improved this season, but their RBBC approach is agonizing for fantasy players. So far, Williams has looked better than Bennett, but each makes the other a lesser fantasy back. An interesting note: both team will have new kickers as John Hilbert takes over for the injured John Kasay and Gary Anderson returns from the rest home to replace the ineffective Doug Brien.

The pick: Minnesota 28-20.

Buffalo Bills (+9) at Denver Broncos

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
10
QB
Drew Bledsoe
Buf
15
QB
Brian Griese
Den
21
RB
Travis Henry
Buf
26
RB
Mike Anderson
Den
22
RB
Olandis Gary
Den
27
WR
Ed McCaffrey
Den
8
WR
Eric Moulds
Buf
16
TE
Jay Riemersma
Buf
12
WR
Rod Smith
Den
   
17
WR
Peerless Price
Buf
   
4
TE
Shannon Sharpe
Den
   
1
PK
Jason Elam
Den
   
8
DT
Denver Broncos
Den
   

This Broncos defense has my vote for biggest surprise of the season. The jobs they did on both Kurt Warner and Jeff Garcia were downright impressive. Bledsoe has been a big surprise in Buffalo, but the NFL's leading passer will not perform at that level this week. He's still worth a start, but don't expect the same amazing numbers as last week. Denver will not allow it. It seems Gary and Anderson have stepped away from Clinton Portis a bit in the Denver ground game. Against the Bills, either would be a decent option. Overall, there are quite a few good plays in this game.

The pick: Denver 19-14.

Cleveland Browns (+4) at Tennessee Titans

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
12
RB
Eddie George (Q)
Ten
14
QB
Steve McNair (Q)
Ten
6
WR
Derrick Mason
Ten
16
QB
Tim Couch
Cle
19
WR
Kevin Johnson
Cle
31
RB
Jamel White
Cle
6
TE
Frank Wycheck
Ten
32
RB
William Green
Cle
10
PK
Joe Nedney
Ten
28
WR
Quincy Morgan
Cle
12
PK
Phil Dawson
Cle
35
WR
Kevin Dyson
Ten

This game really hinges on those two Qs you see next to George and McNair. McNair will almost certainly play, but George really is a question mark. He's never missed a start so odds are good that you'll see him on the field. His effectiveness could be lacking though. At the same time, the Browns have been very soft against opposing running backs so an Eddie George at 80% is still a good play this week. Couch has been upgraded to Probable for Cleveland and should hit the field, but (as of this writing) he hasn't officially been named the starter. Those of you looking for bye-week replacements could find a gem in this contest as it should be offensively slanted.

The pick: Tennessee 27-24.

San Diego Chargers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
4
RB
LaDainian Tomlinson
SD
18
QB
Drew Brees
SD
19
RB
Thomas Jones
Ari
17
TE
Freddie Jones
Ari
3
WR
David Boston
Ari
       
11
WR
Curtis Conway
SD
       
4
DT
San Diego Chargers
SD
       

The key to this game is the San Diego defense. After games against Cincinnati and Houston, they look fantastic and rank 1st in fantasy points allowed at QB, RB, WR, and TE. However, they've played a couple of cupcakes so the jury is still out. Granted, Arizona is no powerhouse, but (as strange as it seems to say it) they have some quality offensive weapons.

The pick: San Diego 17-10.

Dallas Cowboys (+9) at Philadelphia Eagles

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
5
QB
Donovan McNabb
Phi
35
RB
Dorsey Levens
Phi
20
RB
Duce Staley
Phi
31
WR
Joey Galloway
Dal
23
RB
Emmitt Smith
Dal
       
24
WR
James Thrash
Phi
       
10
TE
Chad Lewis
Phi
       
2
PK
David Akers
Phi
       
2
DT
Philadelphia Eagles
Phi
       

Well, both of these teams looked much improved last week as they each evened their record at 1-1. However, the last time Dallas went on the road was the humiliation at Houston. If the Cowboys' defense isn't ready to go, this game will get ugly fast. Need proof? Check out how many Eagles are sure starters.

The pick: Philadelphia 20-6.

Green Bay Packers (-8) at Detroit Lions

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
2
QB
Brett Favre
GB
27
RB
James Stewart
Det
14
RB
Rondell Mealey
GB
14
TE
Mikhael Ricks
Det
10
WR
Terry Glenn
GB
       
21
WR
Donald Driver
GB
       
9
TE
Bubba Franks
GB
       
3
PK
Ryan Longwell
GB
       
1
DT
Green Bay Packers
GB
       

OK, what did Lions fans do to deserve this treatment? It's not enough that one of the all-time best running backs abruptly retired on them, but now they have to root for the worst team in the league. Yes, after being dominated by Carolina, Detroit is in the NFL cellar. The lack an resemblance of offense or defense. Look at the list of Sure Starters. Ahman Green probably won't play, and the Packers still have at least one Sure Starter at every single position. That's an amazing feat.

The pick: Green Bay 30-3.

Indianapolis Colts (-12) at Houston Texans

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
3
QB
Peyton Manning
Ind
29
WR
Qadry Ismail
Ind
1
RB
Edgerrin James
Ind
32
WR
Corey Bradford
Hou
24
RB
James Allen
Hou
 
2
WR
Marvin Harrison
Ind
 
8
TE
Marcus Pollard (Q)
Ind
 
6
PK
Mike Vanderjagt
Ind
 
6
DT
Indianapolis Colts
Ind
 

Believe it or not, Houston is sitting atop the AFC South. Of course so are the Colts, the Titans, and the Jaguars as every team in the division is a sparkling 1-1. Look for the two week ride to end as the Texans finally face a real offense. Manning, James, Harrison, Pollard, and Vanderjagt are every week starters, but they should be even better than usual this week. Be careful with Pollard though. He should play as the only thing holding him back will be his ability to handle pain. If the pain is too great, he'll sit another week. I like his chances though. Last week, Houston made the Chargers defense look outstanding. If you're sitting on the Colts defense, let 'em rip and look like a genius.

The pick: Indianapolis 38-10.

Seattle Seahawks (+6) at New York Giants

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
11
QB
Kerry Collins
NYG
36
RB
Ron Dayne
NYG
5
RB
Tiki Barber
NYG
25
WR
Ike Hilliard
NYG
11
RB
Shaun Alexander
Sea
       
14
WR
Amani Toomer
NYG
       
23
WR
Darrell Jackson
Sea
       
2
TE
Jeremy Shockey
NYG
       
9
DT
New York Giants
NYG
       

Losing big at home last week to the Cardinals places a huge question mark on Seattle. That was just a pitiful effort. Coming on the heels of the blowout loss to Oakland, and things look far from rosy for the Seahawks. Further, Alexander has failed to show any of the flashes of his 2001 form. On the other hand, the Giants have impressed greatly by pulling a split from San Francisco and St. Louis. Many (including myself) had buried New York and were ready to nail the coffin shut. They have looked very good against very good competition.

The pick: New York 21-9.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9) at New England Patriots

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
4
QB
Tom Brady
NE
36
WR
Johnnie Morton
KC
7
RB
Priest Holmes
KC
18
TE
Cam Cleeland
NE
16
RB
Antowain Smith
NE
       
13
WR
Troy Brown
NE
       
1
TE
Tony Gonzalez
KC
       
8
PK
Adam Vinatieri
NE
       
3
DT
New England Patriots
NE
       

The pick last week did go to the Patriots over the Jets, but my God, 44-7? Unreal. Brady has been amazing, the defense has gotten even better, and I'm on the bandwagon. Does that mean it's about to derail? With my luck, probably so. But probably not this week as Kansas City has struggled mightily, and teams don't make a habit of getting well against New England.

The pick: New England 27-10.

Washington Redskins (+9) at San Francisco 49ers

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
7
QB
Jeff Garcia
SF
25
RB
Garrison Hearst
SF
8
RB
Stephen Davis
Was
28
RB
Kevan Barlow
SF
5
WR
Terrell Owens
SF
   
16
WR
Rod Gardner
Was
   
3
TE
Eric Johnson
SF
   
11
PK
Jose Cortez
SF
   

Last week against the Eagles, Spurrier found out that the NFL wasn't going to just roll over and submit to the fun-and-gun. Well the 49ers will provide a second dose of that medicine as the Washington passing game will likely struggle again. The big shock in D.C. is the horrible performances by the defense. This unit was excellent last season and looked to be an improved lot this year. Uh, that would be no. Look for the San Francisco offense to 'get right' this Sunday. If Eric Johnson is sitting on your bench, dust him off this week.

The pick: San Francisco 31-14.

New Orleans Saints (+1) at Chicago Bears

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
9
QB
Aaron Brooks
NO
33
WR
Donte Stallworth
NO
9
RB
Deuce McAllister
NO
       
10
RB
Anthony Thomas
Chi
       
4
WR
Joe Horn
NO
       
7
WR
Marty Booker
Chi
       
11
DT
Chicago Bears
Chi
       

After wins against Minnesota and Green Bay, the Saints are half way to securing their NFC North title. If they can eke out a victory this Sunday, it's all academic as their week four win against Detroit is little more than a rubber stamp. The Bears, however, will not be an easy task. Chicago is one of those teams that seems to have nothing but good karma. They seem to get a few good bounces and just squeak by. Granted, they are a good squad, but there are good squads all over the league. The Bears just get more than their share of the victories.

The pick: Chicago 19-17.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Atlanta Falcons

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
8
QB
Michael Vick
Atl
34
RB
TJ Duckett
Atl
6
RB
Corey Dillon
Cin
30
WR
Brian Finneran
Atl
13
RB
Warrick Dunn
Atl
   
7
TE
Alge Crumpler
Atl
   
5
PK
Jay Feely
Atl
   
12
DT
Atlanta Falcons
Atl
   

How disappointing have the Bengals been this season. Gus Frerotte is particular has been a big downer. He can't seem to do anything right, and once again Cincinnati is little more than a Dillon or bust type of team. On the other hand, the Atlanta offense has been better than expected (Dunn has been much better than anticipated). Look for several Falcons to continue their hot streak this weekend.

The pick: Atlanta 23-10.

New York Jets (+6) at Miami Dolphins

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
12
QB
Jay Fiedler
Mia
 
2
RB
Ricky Williams
Mia
       
15
RB
Curtis Martin
NYJ
       
20
WR
Chris Chambers
Mia
       
5
TE
Randy McMichael
Mia
       
12
TE
Anthony Becht
NYJ
       
9
PK
Olindo Mare
Mia
       
5
DT
Miami Dolphins
Mia
       

As you probably know, the Jets have owned this series lately (winning eight straight). Victory number nine will be a very big upset as the Dolphins are playing as good as any team in the league. The addition of Ricky Williams has been everything Miami could have hoped for. The ground game is definitely working, and Fiedler looks excellent as a result. Meanwhile, the Jets were humiliated by New England last week. New York's only hope is the pride factor. A real team will bounce back strong from a beating like that. Are the Jets a real team? Yes. Are they good enough to continue their winning streak in this series?

The pick: Miami 19-14.

St. Louis Rams (-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sure Starters
Possible Starters
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
Rk
Pos
Player
Team
6
QB
Kurt Warner
StL
17
QB
Brad Johnson
TB
3
RB
Marshall Faulk
StL
33
RB
Mike Alstott
TB
18
RB
Michael Pittman
TB
26
WR
Keenan McCardell
TB
15
WR
Torry Holt
StL
15
TE
Ernie Conwell
StL
18
WR
Keyshawn Johnson
TB
   
22
WR
Isaac Bruce
StL
   
4
PK
Martin Gramatica
TB
   
7
PK
Jeff Wilkins
StL
   
7
DT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB
   
10
DT
St. Louis Rams
StL
   

If you're a Kurt Warner owner, I feel for you. Truth be known, I'm hurting right along with you in two leagues. If you have Warner, he's absolutely killing your team right now. And it's even more painful to see guys like Kelly Holcomb and Rodney Peete bettering your first round pick. Oh, the agony of thinking you've wasted your first round pick. Oh, go ahead and shoot me now. But wait ... this is still Kurt Warner. He still throws to Faulk, Holt, and Bruce. Things aren't all bad, and things will improve. Regarding this game specifically, grab the Mountain Dew and Doritos and get ready for a outstanding ball game. There are so many good plays in this game that you could field a couple of competitive fantasy lineups. From an NFL standpoint, consider that either the Rams will leave this game 0-3 or both St. Louis and Tampa Bay will leave it sitting at 1-2.

The pick: St. Louis 27-23.

Well, I kept my head above water for another week:

Results
Straight up
ATS
Last Week
9-7
9-7
Season
18-14
17-15