  
 Making Use of Average
Draft Position Data
August 3rd, 2002 What is Average Draft Position (ADP)? It’s the compilation of data from lots of mock drafts. Steve McWhorter has put together some great data over at Antsports.com. It’s my favorite place to find out where players are going in leagues similar to my own. If you play in a 12-team league that includes a mandatory TE, there’s slightly fewer than 500 drafts averaged out to yield some great information. Data exists for other types of leagues as well, but not nearly as much as for this more typical type of league. Okay. I can hear your questions and thoughts already. “My league uses a different scoring system” or “We only start 2 WR’s in our league.” Yeah. I hear ya. But ask yourself this question, doesn’t your draft mirror most others you’ve seen regardless of size, scoring, etc? Fact is that most drafters out there are sheep (particularly in the first 5 rounds). This “sheep” reference refers to the vast majority of fantasy football members who think there is some sort of off-season. They use other guys’ rankings and cheat sheets as a guide to draft with, regardless of league parameters. You know the guy. He shows up each year with a Fantasy Football Index tucked under his arm and drafts who he is told to draft. Even the more notable drafts mirror each other. Compare the Fanex, FBG Survivor, Ekspurtz, etc. I can virtually guarantee that LaDainian Tomlinson is going late 1st round in every draft. Same goes for Duece McAllister in the mid to late 2nd round. Tory Holt? Late 2nd to early 3rd. Bank on it. So how do we use this information? How would it be helpful to know where everyone was going to be drafted ahead of time? It’s all about value, value, and more value (and knowing when to trade). Here’s a handy dandy step-by-step list of instructions:
As a more concrete example I’ll break down my draft strategy from the Ekspurtz draft that was completed in late June. I compared my rankings to the ADP data at Antsports and noticed that I was higher on the following players. QB: Brian Griese RB: Fred Taylor & Eddie George WR: Eric Moulds, Ed McCaffrey & Hines Ward Side note: Dang. More than a few injury questions there. Goes to my belief that injuries happen to all players. Read Doug Drinen’s article, Everyone is an injury risk if you have issues in this regard. The reason I’m using this particular draft as an example is that I got four of the players listed above, but didn’t reach to get them. I made several deals to position myself so I could grab these specific players. At the beginning of this draft, I was looking at Taylor and George early on, but selecting them at 1.12 or 2.01 would have been silly. I knew I could trade down to the late second and still get one of them. In this case, it worked out well for me. George went two picks before mine and Taylor fell to me at 2.11. As an added bonus, I acquired an early 5th round pick in this deal that set me up to take Griese. I knew that drafting at the end of the 5th round I had little chance of Griese falling to me at the end of the round (5.12). He’s going in the 5th round in most all drafts this season.
The thing to notice is my rankings compared to when I actually drafted each player. Am I saying this is a dominant team because of whom I selected? No, the reason I point this out is because I feel it’s the best job drafting I’ve ever done. I don’t want to sound arrogant here. Trust me, I’ve made some pretty bad picks in my time. In this case, the pieces fell together and it worked out well for me. What is good drafting? Getting the players you have ranked high as late as possible, waiting until they become good value. You may disagree with the players and my rankings, but what I’m trying to direct attention towards is where I took them in relation to their individual ADP rankings. Who cares whether or not someone else likes my team? I like it. It’s my team. Isn’t that what counts? Why on earth would you want to draft a team that everyone else likes, but you’re ambivalent towards? Thoughts, Conclusions, Questions and General Stuff to Ponder: Draft your own team. Don’t blindly take players in certain spots because that’s where they were supposed to go. If you catch yourself doing this, odds are you are drafting players that someone else thinks you should have. Get the players you want, but make sure they represent good value. Think for yourself, but be aware of what everyone else is likely to do. I’m wondering what a draft board looks like if you use ADP data and plug it all into an Average Value Theory (AVT) cheat sheet. The ultimate adventure into using historical NFL data and other peoples’ opinions. If you buy into this sort of thing, it means you are completely removing any sense of thought or judgment from the whole drafting process. Can you say baah baah? Speaking of sheep, what does mutton taste like? Chicken? I need to contact Steve McWhorter again and find out some details on where this data is coming from. I know they do lots of mock drafts at his site, but who is doing the drafting? I’m curious to investigate possible problems with the data, like the aforementioned William Green ADP. This said, I still think his site offers some very valid data with a few minor exceptions like Green. Hey Clayton, three word names are good, three word names are good, three word names are good… Happy Drafting. Mail comments to: [email protected] |