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Determining Players' Worth in Auction Leagues

Auction fantasy football leagues are becoming more popular every year but the quantity and quality of information available still isn't even close to the amount of information available for regular draft fantasy leagues. One of the biggest question marks in an Auction League is determining how much you should be willing to pay for each player in your league. Over the last three seasons, I have come up with a dependable way of assigning dollar values to the players using my own system. The system uses projections and player tiers to come up with accurate dollar values. I will share this system with you in this article.

Smith's Auction Draft System

  • Based on a 12-team auction league
  • Based on 16 player rosters
  • Each team must work within the $200.00 salary cap
  • Starting lineup requirements include: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Def
  • Scoring Rules are as follows:
    • Individual Scoring
      1 pt. every 25 passing yards
      4 pts. per touchdown
      1 pt. every 10 rushing/receiving yards
      6 pts. Per touchdown
      1 pt. per reception
      3 pts. Per field goal
      1 pt. per convert
    • Team Defense Scoring
      1 pt. per sack
      2 pts. Per interception, fumble recovery, safety
      6 pts. Per shutout

In an auction league, it is important to know ahead of time how much money you should delegate to each fantasy position. However before an owner calculates this figure, he needs to calculate money values for each individual player. Here are the steps I use to assign dollar values that mirror my tier rankings of each player.

Step 1: Projecting 2003 statistics

Projecting fantasy numbers is an important step in any fantasy league and it is no different in an auction draft. There are tons of good articles and tools available to owners that will help them create the best projection possible so I won't spend a lot of time on this subject.

Step 2: Creating tiers for each position

In any fantasy league, it is important to separate players' fantasy worth into tiers. This really helps display which players should be targeted and which players should be avoided. I set up the tiers by marking each drop-off in terms of fantasy production. Color-coding this in your spreadsheet program helps to cement the difference between the different tiers.

First Name Last Name
Team
RY
TD
Re
ReY
TD
FP
Marshall Faulk
StL
1323
11
85
808
5
394.1
LaDainian Tomlinson
SD
1656
15
65
514
3
390.0
Clinton Portis
Den
1568
15
50
475
3
362.3
Ricky Williams
Mia
1706
15
45
401
1
351.7
Priest Holmes
KC
1426
10
60
552
3
335.8
Fred Taylor
Jac
1452
12
55
484
22
332.6
Deuce McAllister
NO
1496
11
50
440
3
327.6
Charlie Garner
Oak
1200
7
75
653
3
320.3
Jamal Lewis
Bal
1452
9
55
495
2
315.7
Tiki Barber
NYG
1376
8
60
546
2
312.2
Edgerrin James
Ind
1353
10
60
438
2
311.1
Corey Dillon
Cin
1450
10
50
440
1
305.0
Shaun Alexander
Sea
1320
12
47
414
2
304.4
Ahman Green
GB
1288
8
55
468
3
296.6
Travis Henry
Buf
1419
9
50
405
1
292.4
Curtis Martin
NYJ
1260
8
50
370
1
267.0
Stephen Davis
Car
1280
10
30
240
1
248.0
Eddie George
Ten
1160
9
40
284
1
244.4
William Green
Cle
1131
8
30
243
1
221.4

Step 3: Giving each player an ADV% (Auction Dollar Value %)

This step is very similar to the VBD (Value Based Drafting) number used in redraft leagues. However this number isn't used to compare two players from different positions but rather to help the fantasy owner come up with reasonable dollar values for every available player. This system uses a dynamic baseline that changes with the different tiers. This number is derived in the following manner.

  • Create a new column within the spreadsheet entitled ADV %
  • Start with the top rated player within the position you are working on (i.e. - Marshall Faulk)
  • Determine a beginning baseline within your ratings (for me it is the 36th RB, 36th WR, 24th QB, etc.) I use the starting requirements at each position plus one backup per roster. There are 24 starting running backs needed and I add 12 backup running backs to the baseline.
  • Create a formula that divides the top players projected fantasy points by the last starters projected fantasy points
    i.e. (formula used in EXCEL) =(I2/155.0) becomes (394.1/155.0) which equals 2.54 ADV %
  • Runs the formula for all the players at the position

Now I tweak the formula on the different tiers to give a higher ADV % for the top tiers. This is accomplished with the following steps:

  • Starting with the next tier (tier two - Clinton Portis, Ricky Williams), change the formula to the following =(I4/156.5). This takes Portis' projected FP and divides it by the top running back in the tier with the former baseline-last starter (tier seven)
  • Do the same thing for the remaining tiers until everyone has an ADV% assigned.
First Name Last Name
Team
RY
TD
Re
ReY
TD
FP
ADV%
Marshall Faulk
StL
1323
11
85
808
5
394.1
2.88
LaDainian Tomlinson
SD
1656
15
65
514
3
390.0
2.85
Clinton Portis
Den
1568
15
50
475
3
362.3
2.32
Ricky Williams
Mia
1706
15
45
401
1
351.7
2.25
Priest Holmes
KC
1426
10
60
552
3
335.8
1.87
Fred Taylor
Jac
1452
12
55
484
22
332.6
1.86
Deuce McAllister
NO
1496
11
50
440
3
327.6
1.83
Charlie Garner
Oak
1200
7
75
653
3
320.3
1.79
Jamal Lewis
Bal
1452
9
55
495
2
315.7
1.76
Tiki Barber
NYG
1376
8
60
546
2
312.2
1.74
Edgerrin James
Ind
1353
10
60
438
2
311.1
1.74
Corey Dillon
Cin
1450
10
50
440
1
305.0
1.70
Shaun Alexander
Sea
1320
12
47
414
2
304.4
1.70
Ahman Green
GB
1288
8
55
468
3
296.6
1.50
Travis Henry
Buf
1419
9
50
405
1
292.4
1.48
Curtis Martin
NYJ
1260
8
50
370
1
267.0
1.21
Stephen Davis
Car
1280
10
30
240
1
248.0
1.12
Eddie George
Ten
1160
9
40
284
1
244.4
1.10
William Green
Cle
1131
8
30
243
1
221.4
0.83

Step 4: Determining the Auction Dollar value for each player

This step is really basic. Simply multiply the ADV% by a number to come up with the players' auction value in dollars. I use the number 30 for running backs because it appears to be the average amount needed to bring in a decent running back during an Auction Draft. For quarterbacks, I use the number 20, for receivers I use the number 25 and for tight ends I use the number 10. If you feel any of those numbers should be tweaked that is up to you. That is simply how I measure the worth of each position in fantasy football.

First Name Last Name
Team
RY
TD
Re
ReY
TD
FP
ADV%
$$$
Marshall Faulk
StL
1323
11
85
808
5
394.1
2.88
86
LaDainian Tomlinson
SD
1656
15
65
514
3
390.0
2.85
85
Clinton Portis
Den
1568
15
50
475
3
362.3
2.32
69
Ricky Williams
Mia
1706
15
45
401
1
351.7
2.25
67
Priest Holmes
KC
1426
10
60
552
3
335.8
1.87
56
Fred Taylor
Jac
1452
12
55
484
22
332.6
1.86
56
Deuce McAllister
NO
1496
11
50
440
3
327.6
1.83
55
Charlie Garner
Oak
1200
7
75
653
3
320.3
1.79
54
Jamal Lewis
Bal
1452
9
55
495
2
315.7
1.76
53
Tiki Barber
NYG
1376
8
60
546
2
312.2
1.74
52
Edgerrin James
Ind
1353
10
60
438
2
311.1
1.74
52
Corey Dillon
Cin
1450
10
50
440
1
305.0
1.70
51
Shaun Alexander
Sea
1320
12
47
414
2
304.4
1.70
51
Ahman Green
GB
1288
8
55
468
3
296.6
1.50
45
Travis Henry
Buf
1419
9
50
405
1
292.4
1.48
44
Curtis Martin
NYJ
1260
8
50
370
1
267.0
1.21
36
Stephen Davis
Car
1280
10
30
240
1
248.0
1.12
34
Eddie George
Ten
1160
9
40
284
1
244.4
1.10
33
William Green
Cle
1131
8
30
243
1
221.4
0.83
25

Step 5: The Auction Draft Cheatsheet

I don't worry about comparing players at different positions in Auction Leagues. Instead I create a Cheat Sheet that keeps each position separate and assign a maximum dollar amount for each position I am drafting that day. Running backs will always have the largest amount of money available followed by receiver and quarterback. The tight end, kicker and defense have much smaller dollar amounts assigned. If you exceed the allotted money for one position, you have to remember to tweak the available money remaining at the other positions.

Quarterback
$$$
Running Back
$$$
Wide Receiver
$$$
McNabb
29
Faulk
86
Moss
42
Culpepper
28
Tomlinson
85
Harrison
41
Vick
28
Portis
69
Owens
37
Manning
25
Williams
67
Ward
34
Garcia
25
Holmes
56
Burress
34
Gannon
25
Taylor
56
Moulds
34
Brooks
24
McAllister
55
Holt
33
Warner
24
Garner
54
Robinson
32
Hasselbeck
24
Lewis
53
Johnson
28
McNair
23
Barber
52
Morgan
27

Final Step: Deciding on Salary Cap for each position

Obviously, looking at the dollar values above, I value running backs a great deal more than receivers and quarterbacks. You may disagree with my thoughts on that and you can tweak your numbers to reflect that. In every auction draft I have participated in though, running backs go for much more than the other positions and you have to be ready to draft in such a manner. Also, don't be afraid to step outside of your projected cap if you feel a player has terrific value. Remember to adjust your salary caps accordingly though. In a league such as the one in this study, my salary cap for each position is as follows.

QB - $28.00
RB - $110.00
WR -$50.00
TE - $6.00
K - $2.00
Def - $4.00

  • If you take one of the big three tight ends (Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap), you will have to sacrifice cap space at one of the other positions.
  • I tend to spend close to the total cap on my starting players (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE) and then wait for value at the end of the draft to pick up my backup players. The most important thing is to pick up studs.
  • Have a goal going into the draft. In a league like this, my goal would be to have a starting lineup resembling this…
    - QB Peyton Manning
    - RB Deuce McAllister
    - RB Jamal Lewis
    - WR Plaxico Burress
  • Highlight certain players you would like to have on your roster and either nominate them immediately or say nothing about them until the end. The best moments to bid on players are either right at the beginning of a draft where owners are still cautious or at the end of the draft when the majority of the owners have spent their money.

Final Thoughts:

Auction drafts take longer, require a lot of planning but can be a lot more competitive than regular drafts. To begin the draft, bid on every player nominated unless you truly feel he is going to be a bust. However do not go over your budgeted dollar amount for that player no matter what. If you don't get that running back you crave because his worth went over your projected amount, don't sweat it. You will find better value later in the draft as a result. It is a lot of work to come up with accurate salary cap numbers on individual players but you will feel much more secure about your draft if you take the time to set up your cheatsheet in the steps I outlined.

Good luck and happy drafting.

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