Determining Players' Worth in Auction Leagues
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Posted 8/27 by Chris Smith - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Auction fantasy football leagues are becoming more popular every year but the
quantity and quality of information available still isn't even close to the
amount of information available for regular draft fantasy leagues. One of the
biggest question marks in an Auction League is determining how much you should
be willing to pay for each player in your league. Over the last three seasons,
I have come up with a dependable way of assigning dollar values to the players
using my own system. The system uses projections and player tiers to come up
with accurate dollar values. I will share this system with you in this article.
Smith's Auction Draft System
- Based on a 12-team auction league
- Based on 16 player rosters
- Each team must work within the $200.00 salary cap
- Starting lineup requirements include: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Def
- Scoring Rules are as follows:
- Individual Scoring
1 pt. every 25 passing yards
4 pts. per touchdown
1 pt. every 10 rushing/receiving yards
6 pts. Per touchdown
1 pt. per reception
3 pts. Per field goal
1 pt. per convert
- Team Defense Scoring
1 pt. per sack
2 pts. Per interception, fumble recovery, safety
6 pts. Per shutout
In an auction league, it is important to know ahead of time how much money
you should delegate to each fantasy position. However before an owner calculates
this figure, he needs to calculate money values for each individual player.
Here are the steps I use to assign dollar values that mirror my tier rankings
of each player.
Step 1: Projecting 2003 statistics
Projecting fantasy numbers is an important step in any fantasy league and it
is no different in an auction draft. There are tons of good articles and tools
available to owners that will help them create the best projection possible
so I won't spend a lot of time on this subject.
Step 2: Creating tiers for each position
In any fantasy league, it is important to separate players' fantasy worth into
tiers. This really helps display which players should be targeted and which
players should be avoided. I set up the tiers by marking each drop-off in terms
of fantasy production. Color-coding this in your spreadsheet program helps to
cement the difference between the different tiers.
First Name |
Last Name |
Team
|
RY
|
TD
|
Re
|
ReY
|
TD
|
FP
|
Marshall |
Faulk |
StL
|
1323
|
11
|
85
|
808
|
5
|
394.1
|
LaDainian |
Tomlinson |
SD
|
1656
|
15
|
65
|
514
|
3
|
390.0
|
Clinton |
Portis |
Den
|
1568
|
15
|
50
|
475
|
3
|
362.3
|
Ricky |
Williams |
Mia
|
1706
|
15
|
45
|
401
|
1
|
351.7
|
Priest |
Holmes |
KC
|
1426
|
10
|
60
|
552
|
3
|
335.8
|
Fred |
Taylor |
Jac
|
1452
|
12
|
55
|
484
|
22
|
332.6
|
Deuce |
McAllister |
NO
|
1496
|
11
|
50
|
440
|
3
|
327.6
|
Charlie |
Garner |
Oak
|
1200
|
7
|
75
|
653
|
3
|
320.3
|
Jamal |
Lewis |
Bal
|
1452
|
9
|
55
|
495
|
2
|
315.7
|
Tiki |
Barber |
NYG
|
1376
|
8
|
60
|
546
|
2
|
312.2
|
Edgerrin |
James |
Ind
|
1353
|
10
|
60
|
438
|
2
|
311.1
|
Corey |
Dillon |
Cin
|
1450
|
10
|
50
|
440
|
1
|
305.0
|
Shaun |
Alexander |
Sea
|
1320
|
12
|
47
|
414
|
2
|
304.4
|
Ahman |
Green |
GB
|
1288
|
8
|
55
|
468
|
3
|
296.6
|
Travis |
Henry |
Buf
|
1419
|
9
|
50
|
405
|
1
|
292.4
|
Curtis |
Martin |
NYJ
|
1260
|
8
|
50
|
370
|
1
|
267.0
|
Stephen |
Davis |
Car
|
1280
|
10
|
30
|
240
|
1
|
248.0
|
Eddie |
George |
Ten
|
1160
|
9
|
40
|
284
|
1
|
244.4
|
William |
Green |
Cle
|
1131
|
8
|
30
|
243
|
1
|
221.4
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Step 3: Giving each player an ADV% (Auction Dollar Value %)
This step is very similar to the VBD (Value Based Drafting) number used in
redraft leagues. However this number isn't used to compare two players from
different positions but rather to help the fantasy owner come up with reasonable
dollar values for every available player. This system uses a dynamic baseline
that changes with the different tiers. This number is derived in the following
manner.
- Create a new column within the spreadsheet entitled ADV %
- Start with the top rated player within the position you are working on
(i.e. - Marshall Faulk)
- Determine a beginning baseline within your ratings (for me it is the 36th
RB, 36th WR, 24th QB, etc.) I use the starting requirements at each position
plus one backup per roster. There are 24 starting running backs needed and
I add 12 backup running backs to the baseline.
- Create a formula that divides the top players projected fantasy points by
the last starters projected fantasy points
i.e. (formula used in EXCEL) =(I2/155.0) becomes (394.1/155.0) which equals
2.54 ADV %
- Runs the formula for all the players at the position
Now I tweak the formula on the different tiers to give a higher ADV % for the
top tiers. This is accomplished with the following steps:
- Starting with the next tier (tier two - Clinton Portis, Ricky Williams),
change the formula to the following =(I4/156.5). This takes Portis' projected
FP and divides it by the top running back in the tier with the former baseline-last
starter (tier seven)
- Do the same thing for the remaining tiers until everyone has an ADV% assigned.
First Name |
Last Name |
Team
|
RY
|
TD
|
Re
|
ReY
|
TD
|
FP
|
ADV%
|
Marshall |
Faulk |
StL
|
1323
|
11
|
85
|
808
|
5
|
394.1
|
2.88
|
LaDainian |
Tomlinson |
SD
|
1656
|
15
|
65
|
514
|
3
|
390.0
|
2.85
|
Clinton |
Portis |
Den
|
1568
|
15
|
50
|
475
|
3
|
362.3
|
2.32
|
Ricky |
Williams |
Mia
|
1706
|
15
|
45
|
401
|
1
|
351.7
|
2.25
|
Priest |
Holmes |
KC
|
1426
|
10
|
60
|
552
|
3
|
335.8
|
1.87
|
Fred |
Taylor |
Jac
|
1452
|
12
|
55
|
484
|
22
|
332.6
|
1.86
|
Deuce |
McAllister |
NO
|
1496
|
11
|
50
|
440
|
3
|
327.6
|
1.83
|
Charlie |
Garner |
Oak
|
1200
|
7
|
75
|
653
|
3
|
320.3
|
1.79
|
Jamal |
Lewis |
Bal
|
1452
|
9
|
55
|
495
|
2
|
315.7
|
1.76
|
Tiki |
Barber |
NYG
|
1376
|
8
|
60
|
546
|
2
|
312.2
|
1.74
|
Edgerrin |
James |
Ind
|
1353
|
10
|
60
|
438
|
2
|
311.1
|
1.74
|
Corey |
Dillon |
Cin
|
1450
|
10
|
50
|
440
|
1
|
305.0
|
1.70
|
Shaun |
Alexander |
Sea
|
1320
|
12
|
47
|
414
|
2
|
304.4
|
1.70
|
Ahman |
Green |
GB
|
1288
|
8
|
55
|
468
|
3
|
296.6
|
1.50
|
Travis |
Henry |
Buf
|
1419
|
9
|
50
|
405
|
1
|
292.4
|
1.48
|
Curtis |
Martin |
NYJ
|
1260
|
8
|
50
|
370
|
1
|
267.0
|
1.21
|
Stephen |
Davis |
Car
|
1280
|
10
|
30
|
240
|
1
|
248.0
|
1.12
|
Eddie |
George |
Ten
|
1160
|
9
|
40
|
284
|
1
|
244.4
|
1.10
|
William |
Green |
Cle
|
1131
|
8
|
30
|
243
|
1
|
221.4
|
0.83
|
Step 4: Determining the Auction Dollar value for each player
This step is really basic. Simply multiply the ADV% by a number to come up
with the players' auction value in dollars. I use the number 30 for running
backs because it appears to be the average amount needed to bring in a decent
running back during an Auction Draft. For quarterbacks, I use the number 20,
for receivers I use the number 25 and for tight ends I use the number 10. If
you feel any of those numbers should be tweaked that is up to you. That is simply
how I measure the worth of each position in fantasy football.
First Name |
Last Name |
Team
|
RY
|
TD
|
Re
|
ReY
|
TD
|
FP
|
ADV%
|
$$$
|
Marshall |
Faulk |
StL
|
1323
|
11
|
85
|
808
|
5
|
394.1
|
2.88
|
86
|
LaDainian |
Tomlinson |
SD
|
1656
|
15
|
65
|
514
|
3
|
390.0
|
2.85
|
85
|
Clinton |
Portis |
Den
|
1568
|
15
|
50
|
475
|
3
|
362.3
|
2.32
|
69
|
Ricky |
Williams |
Mia
|
1706
|
15
|
45
|
401
|
1
|
351.7
|
2.25
|
67
|
Priest |
Holmes |
KC
|
1426
|
10
|
60
|
552
|
3
|
335.8
|
1.87
|
56
|
Fred |
Taylor |
Jac
|
1452
|
12
|
55
|
484
|
22
|
332.6
|
1.86
|
56
|
Deuce |
McAllister |
NO
|
1496
|
11
|
50
|
440
|
3
|
327.6
|
1.83
|
55
|
Charlie |
Garner |
Oak
|
1200
|
7
|
75
|
653
|
3
|
320.3
|
1.79
|
54
|
Jamal |
Lewis |
Bal
|
1452
|
9
|
55
|
495
|
2
|
315.7
|
1.76
|
53
|
Tiki |
Barber |
NYG
|
1376
|
8
|
60
|
546
|
2
|
312.2
|
1.74
|
52
|
Edgerrin |
James |
Ind
|
1353
|
10
|
60
|
438
|
2
|
311.1
|
1.74
|
52
|
Corey |
Dillon |
Cin
|
1450
|
10
|
50
|
440
|
1
|
305.0
|
1.70
|
51
|
Shaun |
Alexander |
Sea
|
1320
|
12
|
47
|
414
|
2
|
304.4
|
1.70
|
51
|
Ahman |
Green |
GB
|
1288
|
8
|
55
|
468
|
3
|
296.6
|
1.50
|
45
|
Travis |
Henry |
Buf
|
1419
|
9
|
50
|
405
|
1
|
292.4
|
1.48
|
44
|
Curtis |
Martin |
NYJ
|
1260
|
8
|
50
|
370
|
1
|
267.0
|
1.21
|
36
|
Stephen |
Davis |
Car
|
1280
|
10
|
30
|
240
|
1
|
248.0
|
1.12
|
34
|
Eddie |
George |
Ten
|
1160
|
9
|
40
|
284
|
1
|
244.4
|
1.10
|
33
|
William |
Green |
Cle
|
1131
|
8
|
30
|
243
|
1
|
221.4
|
0.83
|
25
|
Step 5: The Auction Draft Cheatsheet
I don't worry about comparing players at different positions in Auction Leagues.
Instead I create a Cheat Sheet that keeps each position separate and assign
a maximum dollar amount for each position I am drafting that day. Running backs
will always have the largest amount of money available followed by receiver
and quarterback. The tight end, kicker and defense have much smaller dollar
amounts assigned. If you exceed the allotted money for one position, you have
to remember to tweak the available money remaining at the other positions.
Quarterback |
$$$
|
Running Back |
$$$
|
Wide Receiver |
$$$
|
McNabb |
29
|
Faulk |
86
|
Moss |
42
|
Culpepper |
28
|
Tomlinson |
85
|
Harrison |
41
|
Vick |
28
|
Portis |
69
|
Owens |
37
|
Manning |
25
|
Williams |
67
|
Ward |
34
|
Garcia |
25
|
Holmes |
56
|
Burress |
34
|
Gannon |
25
|
Taylor |
56
|
Moulds |
34
|
Brooks |
24
|
McAllister |
55
|
Holt |
33
|
Warner |
24
|
Garner |
54
|
Robinson |
32
|
Hasselbeck |
24
|
Lewis |
53
|
Johnson |
28
|
McNair |
23
|
Barber |
52
|
Morgan |
27
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Final Step: Deciding on Salary Cap for each position
Obviously, looking at the dollar values above, I value running backs a great
deal more than receivers and quarterbacks. You may disagree with my thoughts
on that and you can tweak your numbers to reflect that. In every auction draft
I have participated in though, running backs go for much more than the other
positions and you have to be ready to draft in such a manner. Also, don't be
afraid to step outside of your projected cap if you feel a player has terrific
value. Remember to adjust your salary caps accordingly though. In a league such
as the one in this study, my salary cap for each position is as follows.
QB - $28.00
RB - $110.00
WR -$50.00
TE - $6.00
K - $2.00
Def - $4.00
- If you take one of the big three tight ends (Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez,
Todd Heap), you will have to sacrifice cap space at one of the other positions.
- I tend to spend close to the total cap on my starting players (1 QB, 2 RB,
2 WR, 1 TE) and then wait for value at the end of the draft to pick up my
backup players. The most important thing is to pick up studs.
- Have a goal going into the draft. In a league like this, my goal would be
to have a starting lineup resembling this
- QB Peyton Manning
- RB Deuce McAllister
- RB Jamal Lewis
- WR Plaxico Burress
- Highlight certain players you would like to have on your roster and either
nominate them immediately or say nothing about them until the end. The best
moments to bid on players are either right at the beginning of a draft where
owners are still cautious or at the end of the draft when the majority of
the owners have spent their money.
Final Thoughts:
Auction drafts take longer, require a lot of planning but can be a lot more
competitive than regular drafts. To begin the draft, bid on every player nominated
unless you truly feel he is going to be a bust. However do not go over your
budgeted dollar amount for that player no matter what. If you don't get that
running back you crave because his worth went over your projected amount, don't
sweat it. You will find better value later in the draft as a result. It is a
lot of work to come up with accurate salary cap numbers on individual players
but you will feel much more secure about your draft if you take the time to
set up your cheatsheet in the steps I outlined.
Good luck and happy drafting.
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