Should I give up on Plaxico Burress, Chris?

By Chris Smith

 

This week, I have received seven separate emails from owners concerned over the disappearance of Steelers receiver Plaxico Burress who has been a fantasy no-show this season.  Being a Plaxico Burress owner myself in two leagues, I readily admit being worried about both his attitude and lack of looks on the football field this season.  He has had attitude issues all throughout his college and professional career and appears to be getting frustrated with the offensive scheme, the quarterbacking and his lack of production on the field.  Is he ready to self-destruct or will he be able to rebound with a successful final fourteen games of the 2002 season.  In this column, I took a trip back to the 2001 season and found some receivers that were expected to be top tier receivers who started slowly in the first two weeks only to pick it up with a solid year from week three on.

 

2001 Season

In the table below are twelve receivers who were ranked in the top thirty in pre-season last year by many owners who started off with a horrible first two weeks of the season.  There are some huge names in this list such as Randy Moss and Terrell Owens who had owners sweating it out in 2001.

 

First Two Weeks of Season

Final Fourteen Weeks of season

Player Name

Fant. Pts

Pts / Game

Terrell Owens

14.1

7

Derrick Mason

12.6

6.3

Laveranues Coles

12.2

6.1

Cris Carter

11.7

5.9

Randy Moss

10.9

5.5

Antonio Freeman

10.9

5.5

Torry Holt

10.0

5

Joe Horn

9.3

4.7

Jerry Rice

9.4

4.7

Keenan McCardell

5.7

2.8

Eric Moulds

4.8

2.4

Darrell Jackson

2.6

1.3

Player Name

Fant. Pts

Pts / Game

Diff

Darrell Jackson

153.5

11.0

+ 9.7

Terrell Owens

222.8

15.9

+ 8.9

Joe Horn

171.2

12.2

+ 7.5

Keenan McCardell

141.3

10.1

+ 7.3

Randy Moss

173.4

12.5

+ 7.0

Torry Holt

168.1

12.0

+ 7.0

Jerry Rice

158.5

11.3

+ 6.6

Eric Moulds

115.6

8.3

+ 5.9

Derrick Mason

154.2

11.0

+ 5.7

Laveranues Coles

116.6

8.4

+ 2.3

Cris Carter

111.5

8.0

+ 2.1

Antonio Freeman

106.9

7.6

+ 2.1

 

 

Looking at the data above, twelve outstanding receivers who started slowly during the 2001 campaign were able to turn their seasons around in a big way starting in week three.  Remembering back to last season, I remember a great deal of panic setting in to start the season with players like Joe Horn and Darrell Jackson.  I received a number of emails last year asking me whether or not it was time to pull the plug on these guys and either (a) trade them or (b) drop them for the flavor of the week.  The problem with (a) is that you are trading a player such as this from a position of weakness and not strength.  Owners are not likely to give you equal value for a player who has started the season so slowly.  The problem with (b) is that a player available on waivers in your league is more likely to be a Flash in the Pan as he is to be the next great thing.  As I pointed out to those troubled owners last season, these players were drafted high in the fantasy draft for a reason and it would be foolish to let them go after two poor weeks.

 

O.K. Chris.  All this is fine and dandy, but how does it relate to Plaxico Burress who has been the Invisible Man on the Football field so far?

 

Back to Plaxico Burress

 

Reasons to be concerned

 

Burress has a grand total of 2 fantasy points to start this season.  He has looked disinterested at times on the football field and has had a tough time finding separation on the football field.  Kordell Stewart has not been getting him the football and has appeared more comfortable throwing to Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El.  He always has had both character and attitude issues since his collegiate days with Michigan State and the Spoiled Baby in him appears to be jumping back to the forefront.  He has begun lashing out at the system and the coaches for not getting him the ball.  Head Coach, Bill Cowher is not the type of coach that will stand for that kind of statement and it could be an ugly clash in Pittsburgh by the end of the season.

 

Reasons for optimism

 

As the table above shows, gifted receivers will usually end up getting their yards and touchdowns.  So far Burress has had to go against a fierce pass defense in the New England Patriots as well as a great shut down cornerback in Charles Woodson last weekend.  He is complaining about not seeing the football but has had 17 passes thrown his way in the first two weeks.  He won’t continue to catch only 1/8th of those passes and his statistics cannot help but climb.  His statements in the media can be taken as a negative but it reminds me a lot of someone like a Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Cris Carter who always want the ball on every play.  I take his frustration as a positive because it shows he isn’t happy with the way the season has begun.  I would be more worried if he didn’t say anything about his lack of production thus far.  The Steelers schedule gets much easier from this point on and Burress won’t be covered as soundly as he was in the first two weeks.

 

Last season, Burress started off quite slowly as well.   He only had 145 yards receiving in the first five games before becoming the dominant receiver many thought he could be with his tall frame and good hands.  He ended the season with a stellar 863 yards in the final eleven games.  This is important because he has gone through something like this before and it will help him to find his groove this season.

 

Final Conclusions

 

I understand completely why fantasy owners are peeved at Plaxico Burress so far in 2002.  He has already cost me three fantasy wins myself so far in 2002.  However the NFL season is a long one and owners who panic after two weeks will likely grow to regret their haste down the road.  Not only would I not dump Burress in waivers or try and trade him right now, but also I would actually approach Burress owners in your leagues and see if you can steal him off other owner’s rosters for next to nothing.  It is very unlikely he is going to continue being shut out on a week-to-week basis and I expect him to end up with decent numbers by the end of the season.  Don’t give up on Burress.  You will likely regret it.