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A Study on Fantasy Draft Position - 2003 season

How much, if any advantage is it to draft number one overall in a fantasy draft? In addition, how much of a hindrance is it to be stuck at the bottom of your draft? One thing is for sure and that is your draft strategy will vary depending on which slot you draft from. While competing in fantasy football over the years, I have drafted everywhere from first overall down to sixteenth overall in a large fantasy league. I have found that all draft positions can have benefits as well as negatives but some are more beneficial than others. This article will take a look at all twelve positions an owner can draft from in a standard twelve team league with these scoring rules and what there strategy should be for the first six rounds of the draft and will also go through a mock draft until round six and take a look at who an owner should take with each pick. There is no reason for any team, picking from any slot to not have a solid foundation after six rounds.

Notes about this study

  • Based on a 12-team league
  • Must Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Def
  • This study doesn't take into account oddball picks in a draft. In many drafts, one renegade owner makes baffling pick after baffling pick that allows value to drop to the other teams in the league. An idea of an oddball pick would be to take RB Marcel Shipp in the 2nd round or WR Johnnie Morton in the 4th round.
  • This study isn't written in stone. Consider it to be similar to a set of guidelines. There will be times a player drops to your pick you weren't expecting to be there and your entire draft strategy can change. That is healthy as long as you adjust your game plan going forward from that pick.
  • I don't want this study to become a debate on why I picked receiver 'X' over receiver 'Y' or running back 'A' over running back 'B'. That isn't what this exercise is about. To that end, I will be using the Footballguys.com Cheat Sheet for this scoring system to determine which player should go during each slot. I will determine which position makes the most sense for each pick.

Scoring Rules

  • 1 pt per 20 yards passing
  • 4 pts per passing TD
  • 1 pt per 10 yards rushing/receiving
  • 6 pts per rushing/receiving TD
  • -1 per interception

Defensive Scoring

  • 1 pt per tackle
  • 1 pt per assist
  • 5 points per sack
  • 2 pts per interception
  • 1 pt per pass deflection


The Draft Unfolds

Team
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4
Round 5
Round 6
1
L Tomlinson
M Vick
E Moulds
T Hambrick
A Thomas
Q Morgan
2
R Williams
D McNabb
E George
J Smith
T Canidate
Troy Brown
3
C Portis
D Culpepper
J Horn
J Stewart
W Dunn
T Pinkston
4
P Holmes
S Davis
D Boston
C Johnson
A Brooks
G Hearst
5
M Faulk
W Green
P Burress
T Heap
D Staley
M Booker
6
D McAllister
C Martin
T Holt
L Coles
K Johnson
K Warner
7
E James
C Garner
K Robinson
T Gonzalez
C Conway
B Favre
8
S Alexander
T Barber
P Manning
A Toomer
R Gardner
J Rice
9
T Henry
T Owens
A Zereoue
J Shockey
E Smith
R Smith
10
F Taylor
R Moss
K Barlow
J Garcia
P Price
M Alstott
11
J Lewis
M Harrison
R Gannon
S Mack
A Smith
I Bruce
12
C Dillon
A Green
H Ward
D Driver
O Smith
D Mason

Drafting from the # 1 slot - General Thoughts
Unlike the past couple of seasons, there are a numbers of running backs that have the ability and situation to be drafted first overall. Because of that fact, going 1st overall is not as appealing as it was in years past. This first pick overall is pretty simple. You simply take the best running back on the board. If your top running back is Ricky Williams of the Dolphins, he would be the first pick overall. If you believe Marshall Faulk of the Rams is due to regain his past glory, he would certainly be the first pick of the draft.

Getting a top running back on board allows the owner picking 1st overall to be flexible with his strategy throughout the next few picks. Because there is a stud running back already on board, the owners can go many different ways with his next two picks at 24 and 25 overall. He can simply take the best two players left on the board without worrying about filling particular positions. If the best two players are receivers or if one is a receiver and one is a quarterback, this owner has no hesitation in landing those players.

Round 1: RB LaDainian Tomlinson, 1st overall - This pick is easy. Simply take the best running back on your list. In this case, you start off the squad with the talented Tomlinson.

Round 2: QB Michael Vick, 24th overall - The benefit of drafting in the top few spots of the draft is it allows an owner more flexibility on how they tackle the draft. With one of the top few running backs already on board, getting a talented quarterback such as Vick makes a lot of sense. One of the mistakes I see owners make in fantasy football is using an early draft pick on a quarterback and then burning another one on a backup quarterback before round eight. If you take a guy like Vick early on, it is imperative that you look towards the running back and receiver positions over the next several rounds to build depth. Doesn't make much sense to draft a guy like Favre to sit on your bench most of the year.

Round 3: WR Eric Moulds 25th overall - There are two different directions this pick can take. The owner can add one of the top five receivers on his board or he can add a dependable second running back for his team. In this scenario, I like adding Moulds to the mix that gives the owner one of the top players at each of the three main positions. It is a great start to a team.

Round 4: RB Troy Hambrick, 48th overall - Because the owner looked to positions other than running back in rounds two and three, it is crucial that he picks one, if not two running backs with these back to back picks. In almost all scenarios, I will take two running backs here if I ignored the position in rounds two and three. Hambrick has a good shot of starting and is good value with the 48th pick.

Round 5: RB Anthony Thomas, 49th overall - See round four above. Thomas represents good value with the 49th pick.

Round 6: WR Quincy Morgan, 72nd overall - Quincy Morgan is a solid second receiver for this team.

Roster After Six Rounds
QB Michael Vick (24th)
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1st)
RB Troy Hambrick (48th)
RB Anthony Thomas (49th)
WR Eric Moulds (25th)
WR Quincy Morgan (72nd)

Thoughts on roster so far
This foundation of this roster is very strong. Including in this group is a top-3 quarterback in Michael Vick, a top-3 running back in LaDainian Tomlinson and a top-5 receiver in Eric Moulds. The best part of having an early pick is it allows the owner to be more flexible than an owner towards the bottom of a draft. With a 'Stud-RB' already in place, the owner can afford to look elsewhere to land excellent talent at the other main positions. If an owner does only take one running back in the first three rounds though, it is very important that he targets running backs in two of the next three rounds in order to avoid a big hole in the running back stable. There is risk attached to both Troy Hambrick and Anthony Thomas but if they do indeed start, this roster will be one of the favorites to win it all going into the season as it should with the luxury of drafting 1st overall.

Draft Strategy going forward
This team is already well rounded and should continue to simply take the best player each round. With no glaring holes through six rounds, the rest of the draft should prove remarkably easy for this team. When you take a quarterback in the first three rounds, the best strategy is to wait as long as possible before adding the backup quarterback. Usually, if I take a quarterback in round two/three I will hold off on taking my backup until I have at least all of my starters at the other main positions (RB, WR, TE) as well as at least one backup at both the running back and receiver position. That means I would target my backup quarterback no earlier than round nine unless awesome value presented itself earlier. Doesn't help your fantasy team to pick up two quarterbacks early unless you plan on trading one of them going forward.


Drafting from the # 2 slot - General Thoughts
This year, I would much rather draft 2nd to 5th than 1st overall. The talent difference between the top ranked running back and the 5th best running back is marginal and the value will be greater in the 2nd round for the owners drafting after the 1st pick. Much like the 1st overall pick, the owner drafting in this slot has the luxury of drafting the best player on the board early on instead of trying to solidify the running back position in the first two rounds.

Round 1: RB Ricky Williams, 2nd overall - Take the best running back on the board. In this case it is Williams.

Round 2: QB Donovan McNabb, 23rd overall - The best talent on the board is McNabb. Taking him here allows the owner to focus on other positions until later in the draft.

Round 3: RB Eddie George, 26th overall - Eddie George will make a solid # 2 running back in fantasy football.

Round 4: WR Jimmy Smith, 47th overall - With a quarterback and two running backs in place, it is time to look for a receiver. Jimmy Smith isn't flashy but he has been dependable throughout the years.

Round 5: RB Trung Canidate, 50th overall - Canidate is a Risk/Reward player. If he can win the starting job with the Redskins, he will put up solid numbers. There is no guarantee he will win the job though.

Round 6: WR Troy Brown, 71st overall - Brown isn't flashy but he catches a ton of passes and plugs in as a solid 2nd receiver.

Roster After Six Rounds
QB Donovan McNabb (23rd)
RB Ricky Williams (2nd)
RB Eddie George (26th)
RB Trung Canidate (50th)
WR Jimmy Smith (47th)
WR Troy Brown (71st)

Thoughts on roster so far
Having a running back tandem of Williams/George is a great start to a squad. Both are guaranteed lots of carries if healthy and will have solid production. Also, McNabb gives the offense a great cornerstone at the quarterback position and gives the owner a player to plug in every week without much thought. The weak part of this team so far is at receiver but Jimmy Smith and Troy Brown, while not glamorous will give the fantasy owner decent production each week. The only worry with them is the lack of touchdowns. Trung Canidate may be a great 3rd option in the backfield is he wins the starting job.

Draft Strategy going forward
The strategy going forward is very similar to the 1st draft slot. This owner needs to draft a couple of receivers in the next few picks and another running back would be a good idea. Having three running backs on board will make the decision process much easier throughout the rest of the draft.


Drafting from the # 3 slot - General Thoughts
Drafting 3rd overall put the fantasy owner in a great position this year. There is little to no difference in potential fantasy numbers between the top pick this year and the third player and Portis could easily end up the fantasy MVP this season. Again as in every slot, it is really effective to come out of the sixth round in a draft with three solid running backs. If an owner only ends up with one running back after six rounds, he will be fighting his way through the rest of the draft, praying for miracles. Again, as in the earlier slots, don't be afraid here to target positions other than running back. Just remember to pick up two running backs in the next three rounds.

Round 1: RB Clinton Portis, 3rd overall - Being able to select Portis 3rd overall is almost unfair. He has as good of a chance to be the top fantasy running back than either of the two guys taking ahead of him.

Round 2: QB Daunte Culpepper, 22nd overall - Culpepper simply represents the best talent with this pick and allows this owner to ignore the quarterback position until later, building depth at the other positions.

Round 3: WR Joe Horn 27th overall - Horn is the best remaining receiver on the list and becomes a good 1st receiver.

Round 4: RB James Stewart, 46th overall - Picking up a guy like Stewart in the 4th round is a nice luxury. He has a lot of young competition for the job in Detroit but it appears that it is still his job for the taking.

Round 5: RB Warrick Dunn, 51st overall - Another solid veteran that will produce fantasy numbers.

Round 6: WR Todd Pinkston, 70th overall - A player I am really high on and should be a solid 2nd receiver.

Roster After Six Rounds
QB Daunte Culpepper (22nd)
RB Clinton Portis (3rd)
RB James Stewart (46th)
RB Warrick Dunn (51st)
WR Joe Horn (27th)
WR Todd Pinkston (70th)

Thoughts on roster so far
Quarterback strength with the top guy on the cheat sheet, running back strength with three starting running backs and a solid receiver duo in place.

Draft Strategy going forward
The first few slots have almost identical strategies. This owner can afford to simply pick the best available player when his turn comes up because he has solid talent at the three main positions already. He should try to add a backup quarterback, a fourth running back, another two receivers and a tight end with the next five selections.


Drafting from the # 4 slot - General Thoughts
Once again, you'll notice that this owner finished up the sixth round with three running backs on roster. The first pick is easy because you get a potential top running back with the first pick. Round two can see the owner go in any one of three directions. In this scenario, the best pick was a running back but don't be afraid to go with a receiver or quarterback with this pick. The important thing to remember is that your draft strategy must change along with the position selected. If you only have one running back after round three, it is important to target the position over the next few rounds. Because of the scarcity of running backs in fantasy football, an owner who ignores the position in the early rounds will be forced to reach for 'potential' and 'projects' throughout the rest of the draft.

Round 1: RB Priest Holmes, 4th overall - As with Portis, it is unfair that an owner drafting fourth can end up with a stud like Holmes. If he wasn't hurt at the end of last year and fighting through a bitter contract struggle at this time, he would easily be the consensus top running back in fantasy football.

Round 2: RB Stephen Davis, 21st overall - Davis should be a dependable 2nd running back in fantasy football.

Round 3: WR David Boston 28th overall - David Boston is becoming a high risk/high reward player. He weighs in at a staggering 255 lbs now and he will bury smaller defensive backs on the field. The only question mark is can he stay healthy at that weight this season.

Round 4: WR Chad Johnson, 45th overall - Johnson is a top receiver for fantasy football this year and he becomes a great 2nd guy on this roster. Both Boston and Johnson have the potential to finish in the top ten.

Round 5: QB Aaron Brooks, 52nd overall - Brooks is a top fantasy producer.

Round 6: RB Garrison Hearst, 69th overall - Hearst is a really nice fit on a fantasy roster as the 3rd running back.

Roster After Six Rounds
QB Aaron Brooks (52nd)
RB Priest Holmes (4th)
RB Stephen Davis (21st)
RB Garrison Hearst (69th)
WR David Boston (28th)
WR Chad Johnson (45th)

Thoughts on roster so far
The running back situation is in great shape with three strong players already in the fold. Hearst should be a great luxury as the 3rd running back. The receiving position has awesome potential this year with both Boston and Johnson having almost unlimited upsides. The quarterback situation is also in great shape with a potential top-four quarterback falling to this team.

Draft Strategy going forward
Another well-balanced squad at this point in the draft makes the following rounds easy. Again, this owner should target picking up another running back for depth, a couple of receivers, a tight end and a backup quarterback with the next picks.


Drafting from the # 5 slot - General Thoughts
Drafting from the 2nd to 6th slots this year is an excellent place to build a solid roster. Talent such as Marshall Faulk will fall to an owner with this pick and they'll get a strong player coming back in round two. If I could choose one slot to draft from in 2003, it would be 5th overall.

Round 1: RB Marshall Faulk, 5th overall - Once again, it is amazing the value that is dropping to owners in the 2nd to 6th slots. Faulk could easily rebound to lead the league in fantasy points this season.

Round 2: RB William Green, 20th overall - Will Green continue his improvement or was the final half of 2002 a smokescreen? That is still a legitimate question but he makes sense with the 20th pick.

Round 3: WR Plaxico Burress, 29th overall - Burress is hovering near the elite fantasy level. Don't be surprised to see him crack the top three in 2003.

Round 4: TE Todd Heap, 44th overall - Heap is one of the top tight ends in the game. The separation between the top three (Heap, Shockey and Gonzalez) and the rest of the tight ends is huge.

Round 5: RB Duce Staley, 53rd overall - Great 3rd back for a roster if he gets his butt into camp.

Round 6: WR Marty Booker, 68th overall - Very dependable # 2 receiver who has considerable upside if quarterback Kordell Stewart can find his confidence.

Roster After Six Rounds
RB Marshall Faulk (5th)
RB William Green (20th)
RB Duce Staley (53rd)
TE Todd Heap (44th)
WR Plaxico Burress (29th)
WR Marty Booker (68th)

Thoughts on roster so far
This roster is different than the others so far. Running back again is strong with three players taken. If Green can continue his development and Staley signs a deal and gets to camp, the position will be a strong one for this team. The receiver position is also in great shape with two great, young receivers leading the way. Add to this group a consensus top-3 tight end and this roster is in fine shape. Obviously this squad needs to add a quarterback soon.

Draft Strategy going forward
Having no quarterback aboard yet, this squad should target two quarterbacks in the next three picks to make up for not taking one in the first three rounds. I almost always take quarterbacks later in the draft, but the strategy in regards to the quarterback situation changes. When I wait until round seven to take my first quarterback, I will almost always follow that with my second quarterback a round later. It is a good strategy to use in fantasy football as you can wait and still pick up players such as Steve McNair and Drew Bledsoe. One thing I have learned though it don't wait too long to pick up your quarterbacks. I tried to be cute in one league, bypass taking my first quarterback in round seven and eight because I had six guys with almost identical statistics and believed one should fall to my next pick. However by round nine, each of those guys went off the board and it left me scrambling for the position. Target a quarterback no later than round seven.


Drafting from the # 6 slot - General Thoughts
With the sixth pick, it almost always will be RB/RB in the first two rounds. Unless a player such as Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison or Terrell Owens happens to fall to your round two slot, the best thing to do is to select two running backs. It is too early in the second round to take a quarterback and no other receiver is worthy of the mid round-two pick. Again, these mid slots in drafts this year are golden. If you can choose your draft slots this year, target being in the five to six range.

Round 1: RB Deuce McAllister, 6th overall - The last of the 'obvious' stud running backs.

Round 2: RB Curtis Martin, 19th overall - Martin still has a couple of solid years left. Adding him gives this owner a great one-two punch from the backfield.

Round 3: WR Torry Holt 30th overall - Holt is another player that could crack the top three in 2003 if he finds a way to score more touchdowns.

Round 4: WR Laveranues Coles, 43rd overall - Great player going into a new situation. If Ramsey develops into a legitimate NFL quarterback this year, Coles could be money.

Round 5: WR Keyshawn Johnson, 54th overall - Johnson is in a great system with a confident quarterback.

Round 6: QB Kurt Warner, 67th overall - Warner can be the best once again if he can stay healthy. Big 'If' though.

Roster After Six Rounds
QB Kurt Warner (67th)
RB Deuce McAllister (6th)
RB Curtis Martin (19th)
WR Torry Holt (30th)
WR Laveranues Coles (43rd)
WR Keyshawn Johnson (54th)

Thoughts on roster so far
This team may have the best starting group after six rounds. The starting quarterback, running back and receiver positions are set with excellent talent throughout. The only thing really missing is the backup running back that is so crucial.

Draft Strategy going forward
This squad will need to add a couple of running backs with the next four picks, along with another quarterback and receiver. If decent running back talent falls to this owner in his next few picks, watch out for Squad #6.


Drafting from the # 7 slot - General Thoughts
This draft slot is not an easy one this season. Unless one of the top running backs sneak through to this slot (which is unlikely as the top six appear to be almost written in stone), this owner will have a tough decision as to which running back to select in round one. Still though, the running back situation through the first round is very even this year and this owner can potentially add a top three fantasy producer if he selects the right one. James definitely appears back on track and could have a special season.

Round 1: RB Edgerrin James, 7th overall - The first running back outside of the big '6'. That isn't to say he can't be great this year though. He has looked awesome in camp and appears to be back to the level he played at in 2000.

Round 2: RB Charlie Garner, 18th overall - Lot of receptions, lots of explosiveness and a good second back on a fantasy roster.

Round 3: WR Koren Robinson 31st overall - Robinson broke out in a huge way last year. He should continue to evolve this season.

Round 4: TE Tony Gonzalez, 42nd overall - Has been the top tight end over the last three years and is looking better than preseason last year.

Round 5: WR Curtis Conway, 55th overall - Conway has a lot of talent and has been a great producer over the last couple of seasons when healthy. His problem is stay healthy.

Round 6: QB Brett Favre, 66th overall - The "Iron-Man" of the NFL comes back more motivated than ever.

Roster After Six Rounds
QB Brett Favre (66th)
RB Edgerrin James (7th)
RB Charlie Garner (18th)
TE Tony Gonzalez (42nd)
WR Koren Robinson (31st)
WR Curtis Conway (55th)

Thoughts on roster so far
The make or break pick for this squad was rolling the dice on a tight end in round four. Having a top-three tight end can really help a fantasy owner but it has left both the running back and receiver positions a little thinner than is ideal. Because of the early tight end selection, this owner should completely ignore the tight end position until the final quarter of the draft. The benefit of selecting a top tight end early is you can simply plug him into the starting lineup each week and not worry about the position. This owner should not burn another pick on a tight end until at least round 14. The running back duo has got a lot of potential but it could be boom or bust in 2003. James could be a top fantasy producer if he is 100% healthy again.

Draft Strategy going forward
Strategy going forward should include taking two running backs in the next few rounds, a couple of more receivers and a backup quarterback. When a tight end is added early on, do not burn another pick on the position until very late in the draft.


Drafting from the # 8 slot - General Thoughts
It's funny. There are certain slots that I enjoy a lot more than others this year. I love the 5th and 6th slots as outlined earlier and also like the 8th to 10th positions because of the value still on the board in round one in addition to the earlier round two pick. This owner could easily end up with a RB/RB duo in the first two rounds or a RB/WR duo depending on who selected. Either way, this owner will be in good shape after the first two rounds.

Round 1: RB Shaun Alexander, 8th overall - Alexander has the talent to be a top three fantasy producer and has a real nose for the endzone. If the Seahawks offensive line gets rolling and Alexander stays focused, he could be money.

Round 2: RB Tiki Barber, 17th overall - Barber has been a first round pick in many drafts this year. He has the ability to finish as a top three fantasy back.

Round 3: QB Peyton Manning 32nd overall - Manning is a great fantasy player.

Round 4: WR Amani Toomer, 41st overall - Really broke through with an excellent fantasy campaign last year. Can he match his success in 2003?

Round 5: WR Rod Gardner, 56th overall - He is 1(a) in the Redskins attack with Laveranues Coles being 1(b). Both should see lots of targets.

Round 6: WR Jerry Rice, 65th overall -The ageless wonder back for another kick at the can. Will his records ever be approached?

Roster After Six Rounds
QB Peyton Manning (32nd)
RB Shaun Alexander (8th)
RB Tiki Barber (17th)
WR Amani Toomer (41st)
WR Rod Gardner (56th)
WR Jerry Rice (65th)

Thoughts on roster so far
The cornerstone of this unit is easily at running back. Both Alexander and Barber have outstanding potential this year and could end up top five players. Not having a backup running back yet is a concern but the quarterback position is set with Manning and the starting receivers are filled with Toomer, Gardner and Rice being a decent trio.

Draft Strategy going forward
The starting positions at the three main positions are set and this owner should concentrate on adding depth for the next few rounds. I would target two running backs, one quarterback, one tight end and one receiver with the next five picks.


Drafting from the # 9 slot - General Thoughts
This is a draft slot that can take an owner in two different directions. This owner can either go RB/RB in the first two rounds or RB/WR. Just remember to adjust your draft strategy going forward if you do take the receiver in round two. It becomes very important to have three running backs on board after round five if you take a receiver in round two.

Round 1: RB Travis Henry, 9th overall - Henry is a good back in a great system and he is very motivated with Willis McGahee breathing down his neck. Don't be surprised to see Henry in the top five.

Round 2: WR Terrell Owens, 16th overall - Owens has been almost unstoppable at times on the football field.

Round 3: RB Amos Zereoue 33rd overall - He is challenging Bettis for playing time this year but has hurt his ankle and likely wouldn't be this high in drafts right now. Since I am using the Footballguys.com cheat sheet though, he can slot in here for now. Has more explosiveness than Bettis and is better out of the backfield.

Round 4: TE Jeremy Shockey, 40th overall - Simply a 'Stud' in every way possible on a football field.

Round 5: RB Emmitt Smith, 57th overall - The warrior believes he can still play this game. Don't be surprised to see one last burst of glory from Mr. Smith.

Round 6: WR Rod Smith, 64th overall - Rod Smith is aging but he isn't ready to be put out to pasture yet.

Roster After Six Rounds
RB Travis Henry (9th)
RB Amos Zereoue (33rd)
RB Emmitt Smith (57th)
TE Jeremy Shockey (40th)
WR Terrell Owens (16th)
WR Rod Smith (64th)

Thoughts on roster so far
This is an interesting roster so far and it could be a great one. The strengths of this unit are at tight end with the dominant Giants tight end, at receiver with two potential studs in Owens and Smith and the running back situation could be great if Zereoue emerges in Pittsburgh and Smith can find the fountain of youth.

Draft Strategy going forward
This squad will need to add a couple of quarterbacks and a couple of receivers in the next four picks. Again, in regards to the tight end position, it makes no sense to select a second tight end until very late in the draft. Shockey is going to be your guy at tight end every week so stockpile talent at the other positions and ignore tight end until the end of the draft.


Drafting from the # 10 slot - General Thoughts
This owner will almost always be best served to go RB/WR in the first two rounds. In round one, he should take the best running back on his board and in round two he should take one of the top three receivers. That will put him in the best position to do well.

Round 1: RB Fred Taylor, 10th overall - You want 'high-risk/high-reward'. Taylor personifies that statement.

Round 2: WR Randy Moss, 15th overall - 'High-risk/high-reward' part two. Moss may be the most talented receiver ever in the NFL and finally has the work ethic to match his talent. You can almost hear defensive backs knees knocking together in fear.

Round 3: RB Kevan Barlow 34th overall - Barlow will likely share time with Hearst again in 2003. If he gets the opportunity to be the full-time back though, watch out.

Round 4: QB Jeff Garcia, 39th overall - Excellent fantasy quarterback but he is fighting back problems.

Round 5: WR Peerless Price, 58th overall - Good receiver but will the Falcons throw enough down the field to make him a great fantasy option?

Round 6: RB Mike Alstott, 63rd overall - Alstott will get his touches.

Roster After Six Rounds
QB Jeff Garcia (39th)
RB Fred Taylor (10th)
RB Kevan Barlow (34th)
RB Mike Alstott (63rd)
WR Randy Moss (15th)
WR Peerless Price (58th)

Thoughts on roster so far
This draft after six rounds yielded a good quarterback, a potentially explosive running back stable (although one of the riskiest in this study) and also a potentially explosive receiver duo. This may be the riskiest squad after six rounds but the potential is there to do very well.

Draft Strategy going forward
This squad needs to thing about adding a couple of receivers, a tight end, another running back and a quarterback with the next five picks.


Drafting from the # 11 slot - General Thoughts

This slot is almost identical to the 10th slot.

Round 1: RB Jamal Lewis, 11th overall - Lewis trains hard, practices hard and wants to be the best. The one thing about this year is that the top fourteen running backs all have the ability to be top fantasy producers this year.

Round 2: WR Marvin Harrison, 14th overall - Catches a ton of passes and is a perennial top-tier fantasy receiver.

Round 3: QB Rich Gannon, 35th overall - The leader of the Geriatric Gang is back for another attack on Marino's record.

Round 4: RB Stacey Mack, 38th overall - The Texans offensive line is likely too poor for Mack to have a good season.

Round 5: RB Antowain Smith, 59th overall - Smith is in a dogfight to keep his job in New England. Kevin Faulk is pushing him for the starting position. Regardless both will receive playing time but Smith's value plummets if he only gets 10-12 carries per game.

Round 6: WR Isaac Bruce, 62nd overall - Bruce is dependable year in and year out. If Warner regains his past glory, Bruce becomes a draft day bargain.

Roster After Six Rounds
QB Rich Gannon (35th)
RB Jamal Lewis (11th)
RB Stacey Mack (38th)
RB Antowain Smith (59th)
WR Marvin Harrison (14th)
WR Isaac Bruce (62nd)

Thoughts on roster so far
This roster features good strength throughout the roster. The quarterback position is in good hands with Gannon, the receiving duo of Harrison and Bruce is fantastic and the one starting running back; Lewis may be great in 2003. The one big concern is in regards to the 2nd running back slot with has two players with question marks battling for playing time. If Mack and/or Smith put up good numbers, this unit will be strong.

Draft Strategy going forward
Almost identical strategy to the 10th slot.


Drafting from the # 12 slot - General Thoughts

Without a doubt, the one slot that requires the best use of strategic planning is the final slot in a draft. It can be both a huge liability and a huge positive depending on how the owner uses his selections. The biggest problem with this slot is the long wait between picks. It is similar to the first slot in that but the first owner has the luxury of taking the best running back on board in addition to three of the top twenty-five players. There are a number of ways this owner can go.

  • He could roll the dice and take the top two receivers (i.e. - Moss and Harrison) and try to fill the running back starters in the next several rounds. That would be risky but would give the owner the best receiving core in the league. I don't recommend that though because by the 36th pick, the available running backs have big question marks and the owner would have to get lucky.
  • He can take one running back and one receiver. This works well for the fantasy owner but again the long wait between picks takes away a lot of the running back talent before this owner gets to pick again. This strategy will work but if I do go this route, my first four picks almost certainly would be RB, WR, RB, RB to make sure the running back stable isn't empty.
  • I have had the enjoyment of drafting last in many fantasy drafts over the several years (enjoyment because it usually means you won your league) and I believe the best strategy with this slot is as follows. With the first two picks, simply take the top two running backs on your board. Because you cannot pick one of the 'Stud' running backs it really helps to get two of the top-13 running backs for your squad. It really helps to even out the playing field against the owners at the top who were able to select the top backs on their sheet. With the next two picks, I almost always select the top two receivers left on my board unless one of the big quarterbacks (Culpepper, McNabb, Vick or Manning fall to my fourth round pick. I feel this beginning gives the 12th slot squad the best chance to win.

Round 1: RB Corey Dillon, 12th overall - The Bengals have finally surrounded him with talent. Is this the year he breaks out with top fantasy numbers?

Round 2: RB Ahman Green, 13th overall - Green was a top three pick in fantasy drafts last year. He has the ability to greatly outperform this draft slot.

Round 3: WR Hines Ward 36th overall - Ward is a gamer. Catches a lot of passes and is in a great situation.

Round 4: WR Donald Driver, 37th overall - The Packers go-to receiver. When the quarterback who throws you the ball is named 'Favre' that means you will produce on the field.

Round 5: RB Onterrio Smith, 60th overall - Still an unknown but he is favored to win the starting job in Minnesota.

Round 6: WR Derrick Mason, 61st overall - Mason is dependable every year and is a sensational 3rd receiver on a fantasy squad.

Roster After Six Rounds
RB Corey Dillon (12th)
RB Ahman Green (13th)
RB Onterrio Smith (60th)
WR Hines Ward (36th)
WR Donald Driver (37th)
WR Derrick Mason (61st)

Thoughts on roster so far
This squad ended up with excellent running back and receiver talent. The receiving trio of Ward, Driver and Mason is likely the best group of three in the league and the running back position is also strong with two solid starters and one potentially explosive rookie. Obviously this squad needs a quarterback.

Draft Strategy going forward
The one thing I learned this year is you shouldn't wait any longer than the 7th round to target your quarterback. That means with the next pick, this owner should take a quarterback and should grab another by round nine. Other than that, it is simply a matter of adding more depth to the running back and receiver positions as well as a starting tight end.

Important Draft strategies

  • Your draft strategy must alter depending on whom you take in the first two rounds.
  • Don't worry about bye weeks until you have your starting players in place. Bye weeks matter for backups not starters.
  • Never draft more than one quarterback in the first seven rounds. Too hard to trade them due to the fact there are so many starting quarterbacks and only 12 starting slots in the league.
  • Be willing to adjust your strategy on the fly. Often a draft doesn't go as you planned. If a bargain falls into your lap such as Donovan McNabb at the end of the second round, make sure you take him and then adjust your strategy for the next several rounds. Be flexible!
  • Never take a kicker or defense until you have your starting roster at other positions fill out at the very least and a backup at running back and receiver is highly recommended. Personally I would take both kickers and defense in the bottom quarter of the draft. That's where the value is.
  • The only non-running backs that should be considered in the first two rounds are Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens at receiver and Michael Vick, Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb at quarterback. The rest of the picks should be running backs.

Final Conclusions
While there is some variance between the different draft slots, an owner can draft a competitive team at any of them if he is willing to adjust his strategy as the draft goes on. If an owner is patience, prepared and willing to follow his own path the draft will open up to him and he will find himself with a competitive team at the end of the day. Don't be afraid to buck the trend but allow your strategy to change with your choices. If you take a quarterback or receiver in the first two rounds, the focus for your team should switch to running back. Never take more than one quarterback until at least round seven at the very least. If you do take one of the top three tight ends (Shockey, Gonzalez and Heap) in the first few rounds, ignore the tight end position until near the end of the draft. There is absolutely no reason to take a backup tight end until at least round 14 unless you can start more than one.

There are no guarantees in fantasy drafts due to injuries and unforeseen occurrences. However having a solid strategy in place that can be flexible can help an owner drafting from any slot be successful in his/her league.

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