 
A Study on Fantasy Draft Position by Chris Smith August 27th, 2002 How much, if any advantage is it to draft number one overall in a fantasy draft. In addition, you much of a hindrance is it to be stuck at the bottom of your draft. One thing is for sure and that is your draft strategy should change greatly depending on what number you draft from Over my years playing fantasy football, I have drafted everywhere from first overall down to sixteenth overall in a large fantasy league. I have found that all draft positions can have benefits as well as pratfalls but some are more advantageous than others. . This article will take a look at all twelve positions an owner can draft from in a standard twelve team league with these scoring rules and what there strategy should be for the first five rounds of the draft and will also go through a mock draft until round five and take a look at who an owner should take with each pick. 1 pt every 25 passing yards 1 pt every 10 rushing yards 1 pt every 10 receiving yards 4 pts every passing touchdown 6 pts every rushing/receiving
touchdown -1 pt every pass interception 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per
convert 2 pts per safety, 2 pts per
interception, 2 pts for FF, 1 pt per sack, 6 pts per touchdown Defensive shutout worth 5 pts. Must start… 1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR /
1 TE / 1 K / 1 DEF Drafting from
the # 1 slot
General ThoughtsDrafting first overall is a very nice luxury. You start off by taking the best fantasy football player by the name of Marshall Faulk at first overall. Faulk has one leagues almost by himself the past couple of seasons and the owners drafting in this slot is almost guaranteed unless he really drops the ball with the rest of his picks. Faulk gives the running back position great strength and allows the fantasy owner a lot of options through the next several rounds. Because there is a stud running back already on board, the
owners can go many different ways with his next two picks at 24 and 25
overall. He can simply take the best
two players left on the board without worrying about filling particular
positions. If the best two players are
both receivers or if one is a receiver and one is a quarterback, this owner has
no hesitation in landing those players. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: RB Marshall Faulk, 1st overall – As much of a no-brainer as an owner can have on draft day. Faulk is easily the best player on the board and the only thing that can derail him is injury. He will keep a fantasy team competitive all by himself and allows an owner to easily pick the best player available in the first five rounds regardless of position. Round 2: WR Rod Smith, 24th overall – There is
no quarterback left worth taking this early and the running backs remaining are
all risky with a capital “R” or simply not good enough to warrant taking this
low. However with Marshall Faulk on the
roster, the team can afford to leave the running back position alone until
round 4/5 and simply take the best two players on his list right now. Adding two receivers’ gives this owner
awesome talent with his first three picks. Round 3: WR Eric Moulds 25th overall – The
receivers taken here may change depending on your own cheat sheet but
regardless it is the best play in this draft position. Faulk + Smith + Moulds = the cornerstone of
a potential championship. Round 4: RB Jamal Lewis, 48th overall – If
Lewis comes back healthy, this team is the clear favorite to win the
league. Lewis is working out hard and
wants to return to the 20 + carry per game back he once was. He is a risk but this team has three
dependable players already on board and can take a risk at running back. Not that there is much options left at this
point anyways because the pickings are very slim. Round 5: TE Tony Gonzalez, 49th overall – Adding Gonzalez here is golden. He is unhappy with his contract but he is still the top tight end in the league and he should be a top four tight end at the very least. If he plays up to the level of years past, this team is simply dominant. No quarterback yet but they can get one in round seven. Roster After Five Rounds: RB Marshall Faulk RB Jamal Lewis WR Rod Smith WR Eric Moulds TE Tony Gonzalez Drafting from the # 2 slot General ThoughtsDrafting from the # 2 slot has a
much more difficult decision than the owner who landed Faulk. This owner has to look running back here
because of the long wait until their next pick. Chances are the running backs left available at # 23 overall
would not allow this owner to field a stud running back in his backfield. It is simply too early to look at
quarterback or receiver no matter who well they are projected to do in
2002. The owner in this slot needs to
take the highest rated running back on his sheet and that gives him the freedom
to pickup a quarterback and receiver later in the draft without panicking to
find a running back. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: RB Ahman Green, 2nd overall – As said under general thoughts, it is a much tougher decision here at 1.2 and is probably the reason some owners choose to go quarterback with this pick. However selecting a quarterback this early can be disastrous if the draft is a running back friendly one because the top 15 running backs can all be off the board by your next pick. The best move here is to take the highest running back available on your cheat sheet. In this case it is talented back Ahman Green from the Packers. Round 2: QB Donovan McNabb, 23rd overall – What
starts off easy for this owner in round one gets pretty difficult in round
two. There is risky running backs left,
many receivers who are in the same basic tier in terms of fantasy potential and
the top four quarterbacks are off of the board. There is a few different ways the owner can go here but the safest
bet is to take McNabb who will cement the quarterback position for the entire
season. He is a top quarterback and
could end up in the top three at seasons end because of his rushing talents. Round 3: WR Joe Horn, 26th overall - This team
has a really nice beginning with one excellent starter at each main
position. Having Green, McNabb and now
Horn is a solid foundation to start the squad and has them heading in the right
direction. Round 4: RB Travis Henry, 47th overall – Henry has a lot of upside and could be the player that helps propel this team into the playoffs. However Henry has let to prove he can run for a good average per carry and has a ton of competition for the job in Buffalo with Shawn Bryson and Richard Huntley breathing down his neck. Not many running backs left though and he is good value here. Round 5: TE Marcus Pollard, 50th overall – This
team is already solid in all positions.
They could go receiver here but to land Pollard in round five who could
be the top tight end this season is a nice pickup. Gives them strength in all positions. Roster After Five Rounds: QB Donovan McNabb RB Ahman Green RB Travis Henry WR Joe Horn TE Marcus Pollard Drafting from
the #3 slot
General ThoughtsMuch like as the owner who drafts second, it has to be a
running back that goes in this position.
Supply and demand is simple when you start two running backs. If you draft early in round one and don’t go
running back the available running backs at the end of round two will not be
considered top-level starting players.
Simply take the best running back available and run with him. Unless your league only starts one running
back or starts two quarterbacks instead of one, it is so important to get the
running back stable squared away early on.
It is not the scoring the makes running backs so important but rather
supply and demand. In most 12-team
leagues, there will be 24 running backs starting each week as opposed to only
12 quarterbacks. It is much easier to
discover a diamond at quarterback later on in the draft than it is to find a
capable running back after the first few rounds. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: RB Shaun Alexander, 3rd overall – Alexander and Green are just about even when it comes to potential in fantasy football this year. The Seahawks offensive line has big question marks though and that drops Alexander down to third. Getting that stud running back is critical so early in the draft. Round 2: WR Torry Holt, 22nd overall – The
uncertainty at running back at this point makes the Torry Holt selection very
easy. The fantasy team here already has
an excellent running back on board so they don’t need to be in a hurry to add
another one to the mix. Holt and
Alexander is a potent combination. Round 3: WR Keyshawn Johnson 27th overall – I
would almost consider Fred Taylor here as an high upside pick but when you have
a sure producer such as Johnson (last year’s lack of touchdowns withstanding)
it is best to ignore potential for consistency. Sure Taylor may go off with a big season but adding Johnson gives
this team a tremendous base to work from.
I tend to try and avoid potential busts as much as possible in the first
three rounds unless you simply cannot pass on the potential in your slot. Taylor is tempting but not enough to warrant
picking him. Round 4: RB Garrison Hearst, 46th overall – Hearst
is an injury risk but is the best option left available in the depleted running
back stock. He should put up good
numbers if healthy but will certainly share time with Barlow and Hearst
probably won’t score a lot of touchdowns.
It is important for this owner to grab a running back ahead of the teams
in front of him so he has to take one in this position. Round 5: QB Rich Gannon, 51st overall – Gannon
is very dependable. He is getting up
there in age but will continue to put up nice numbers for the Raiders this
year. With two running backs and two
receivers already on board, getting Gannon is a no-brainer for this team. Roster After Five Rounds: QB Rich Gannon RB Shaun Alexander RB Garrison Hearst WR Torry Holt WR Keyshawn Johnson Drafting from
the #4 slot
General Thoughts The # 4 slot is the first draft position where the owner
can begin thinking of taking another position and still get a decent back on
the downswing. Running back is still
the best play in this slot though as there are still two of them who can be top
fantasy players this season. Passing
Kurt Warner is hard at # 4 but you will find better value at quarterback later
and it is too hard to ignore the running backs that can be had in this spot. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: RB Ricky Williams, 4th overall – There is a drop in talent at running back after 3 but not enough to avoid selecting one here. It is a very long time before your next pick at # 21 overall and if you take a quarterback or receiver here it just means there will be even less running backs to choose from by the time your next pick comes up. Most owners do not mind taking two running backs to start the draft and in fact many owners strive to do that in every draft they participate in. That means the chance of landing solid starting running backs is tough if you look elsewhere this early. Ricky Williams should touch the ball 25 times per game and will get the goal line looks for the team. That translates into a lot of fantasy points and the best pick in this position. Round 2: WR David Boston, 21st overall – The
owners who drafted early on looked very good in round one but the draft
balances out if owners draft wisely because most of the top tier talent is gone
at the end of round two. The running
backs remaining are risky (Fred Taylor) and that is why it is so important to
go running back early in the draft.
This owner is fortunate because he gets to add David Boston to his squad
who could sneak his way into the top three this year. Round 3: RB Antowain Smith, 28th overall – This
owner is likely thanking all the other owners when a potential 300-carry
running back falls into his lap. Smith
doesn’t have a big upside and likely won’t put up as many touchdowns as last
season but he will have 1150 + yards rushing and is excellent value in round
three. Round 4: WR Chris Chambers, 45th overall - This team is sitting in a great draft position and it is clear to see why with there team. They can get value with all of their picks and the four chosen so far (Williams, Boston, Smith and Chambers) should take this team far. Round 5: QB Steve McNair, 52nd overall – McNair
has become a true force in fantasy football.
With two good receivers, two gifted tight ends and a healthy Eddie
George, he may be the steal of the draft this year. Going quarterback here is an easy choice with two solid running
backs and receivers already on the roster. Roster After Five Rounds: QB Steve McNair, Titans RB Ricky Williams, Dolphins RB Antowain Smith, Patriots WR Chris Chambers, Dolphins Drafting from
the #5 slot
General ThoughtsIt is very tempting in this slot to select quarterback Kurt
Warner of the Rams with this pick. He
is awesome and will always help a fantasy squad. However there is a big drop-off between the last potential Stud
running back left and the next available backs (especially those remaining
at # 20 where this owner drafts next).
The best play is to take Priest Holmes in round one and pickup a
quarterback later. Going quarterback
will force the owner to reach for a running back somewhere in the next four
rounds, which could cause a chain of reach picks for his team. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: RB Priest Holmes, 5th overall – Much like Ricky Williams above, it is tough to pass on gifted quarterback and fantasy stud Kurt Warner in this slot and I can’t blame an owner for picking him here. However the same can be said with this pick as it was with Ricky Williams below. It is hard to find good running backs if you go quarterback or running back this early in the draft. The safe pick and in the long run, the best pick is to take Priest Holmes here and take a quarterback later on in the draft. Round 2: QB Peyton Manning, 20th overall – The
owner drafting here is going to come out smelling like a rose no matter how the
draft shakes out. Either he gets a
running back such as Stephen Davis or Deuce McAllister falling to him or he
gets to draft a great quarterback like Peyton manning. In this scenario, Manning fell to him and he
gets a top quarterback teaming up with his excellent running back. Round 3: RB Fred Taylor, 29th overall – This is
a hard position to be in. Looking at
the draft board, there are quarterbacks who shouldn’t go in round three,
receivers who have some issues and concerns and running backs who are in RBBC
or are risky picks. Because there are
no sure things left at this point, this owner should swing for the fences and
add Taylor to his roster. High risk,
high reward. If Taylor stays healthy,
this team becomes one of the favorites coming out of this draft. This owner must make sure he adds Stacey
Mack in round seven though. Round 4: RB James Stewart, 44th overall – A
team that drafts Fred Taylor must follow that up with good running back depth
or they could be in serious trouble all season. This team can get quality receivers later on but for now it is
important to build up strength at running back to offset the risk in Taylor. Plus it puts pressure on the teams at the
top of the order who only have one back.
Those running backs are quickly disappearing. Stewart isn’t flashy but is productive when healthy. Round 5: WR Terry Glenn, 53rd overall - Glenn
is a risky 1st receiver for a fantasy team but he has a very high
upside. Having Brett Favre throwing to
you is a major plus and Glenn has the talent to be a huge value pick in round
5. Roster After Five Rounds: QB Peyton Manning RB Priest Holmes RB James Stewart WR Terry Glenn Drafting from
the #6 slot
General Thoughts It gets hard for an owner in the next few picks. There is so many ways an owner can go with
this pick and who he takes here will determine who he takes in the next several
rounds. This is the best spot to land
Kurt Warner of the Rams. Heed this
advice though as it is critical to your draft day success. Drafting a quarterback in round one is fine
but it is imperative to your fantasy chances that you ignore the position after
this pick until you have at the very least three running backs, all three of
your starting receivers and a tight end.
Too often I see an owner draft a quarterback in round one only to draft
another one in rounds three or four who will sit on your bench collecting
dust. The reason you take a quarterback
this early is so you can plug him into the starting lineup and forget about
him. Don’t even consider another
quarterback until at least round eight no matter what your sheet tells
you. That is a big key in this slot. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: QB Kurt Warner, 6th overall – By far and away the best value left for the owner who drafts # 6. He will put up his characteristic huge numbers and will cement the starting quarterback position for the fantasy team all season long. With the top running backs now off the board, this is a very easy decision for the owner. Round 2: RB Deuce McAllister, 19th overall – Warner
was a nice pickup in round one and the owner who drafted him still got value at
running back in round two with McAllister.
Adding a running back here will free up the owner and allow him to look
either running back or receiver the next few picks. Round 3: WR Isaac Bruce, 30th overall– Bruce
really stands out as the player to have here.
A lot of folks are down on him this year but he has the potential to be
a top receiver and who’s to say it won’t be him and not Torry Holt catching the
most passes this year. Adding him gives
the owners talent at all three positions and getting double points from Warner
/ Bruce is a deadly fantasy tool. Round 4: RB Jerome Bettis, 43rd overall – Adding
a running back here is crucial to this teams success and Bettis would fit the
bill nicely. He doesn’t have much
upside for this season but will be consistent week to week and that is very
important to a fantasy team that didn’t draft a running back in round one. Round 5: WR Derrick Mason, 54th overall – Mason
is a good # 2 receiver in fantasy football.
He will team up nicely with Isaac Bruce and give this team solid
strength all around. Roster After Five Rounds: QB Kurt Warner, Rams WR Derrick Mason, Titans Drafting from
the #7 slot
General ThoughtsStarting here in the seventh slot,
the best strategy in round one is to simply take the best player left on your
list regardless of position. The 2nd
round pick comes early enough where there will still be value at the running
back position so taking the top receiver in this slot is the best strategy by a
wide margin. Going receiver in this
position really makes it important to target running backs as much as possible
in the next several rounds. The
pickings get harder as the draft goes on so only take a quarterback or receiver
in the next two rounds if the value is excellent. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: WR Randy Moss, 7th overall – The best quarterback is off of the board and the top running backs have also been selected. There is really only one play here and that is to get one of the three studs residing at the receiver position this year. The owner who picks seven is late enough in the draft to land a very nice running back coming back in round two which will give him an excellent beginning to the team. Round 2: RB Stephen Davis, 18th overall – Running
back is the obvious play here and luckily for the owner drafting at # 7 there
is a potential top five running back just waiting to be plucked. All three of the owners who went receiver in
the middle of the draft ended up with good running back strength and that will
help them be competitive this season. Round 3: RB Michael Pittman, 31st overall – With
Moss already on board and no receiver really standing out on the list now, the
owner may as well begin to stockpile running back talent to put the pressure on
the teams above him with only one back.
Pittman has lots of potential and is a good fit with the dependable
Davis as fantasy running back # 1 on this squad. Round 4: QB Brett Favre, 42nd overall – Getting
Favre in round four is always a good thing.
Adding him at this point in the draft gives the team a solid group of
guys to start the team off. Favre would
represent good value here. Round 5: RB Charlie Garner, 55th overall – This
team has a question mark as their second running back. Garner is the best left on the board and
more importantly has a bye week that is different from both of the projected
starters. He is a great fit into this
team. Roster After Five Rounds: QB Brett Favre WR Randy Moss
General Thoughts The 8th position overall is an interesting
position to be in. You missed out on
the top tier talents already taken before your pick and yet have to wait a
number of picks until your second choice.
The best running backs are already off of the board and there is a
noticeable drop between Priest Holmes and the next available back on the list. However there are two very good receivers
left in the draft and the best bet here is to take one of those players and
catch a running back in round two. Just
like the seventh overall choice though, going receiver in round one should
alter your draft strategy for the next several rounds. It is so important to
get two solid running backs that you can plug into your offense each week. Running backs become your priority in the
next few rounds unless there is a diamond that drops to you at another
position. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: WR Marvin Harrison, 8th overall – The same comments as Randy Moss above. The value at receiver here greatly outweighs the other positions and it is still possible to get a very good starting running back in round two. Round 2: RB Anthony Thomas, 17th overall – With
a receiver already on board and good running back talent available, simply take
the best one remaining on your cheat sheet.
Anthony Thomas is a good starting back in fantasy football and him
teaming up with Harrison is a very nice start. Round 3: RB Tiki Barber, 32nd overall – Barber
is one of those guys who sneaks into the top 15 running backs each year without
owners realizing it. He will catch a
ton of passes this season again and will likely get even more carries than last
year. Round 4: WR Kevin Johnson, 41st overall – Johnson
will team up with Harrison to give this squad an excellent one-two punch at
receiver. There was the consideration
of a quarterback here but this team should be able to land a good one in round
five. Round 5: RB Deshaun Foster, 56th overall – Getting
backup running depth is a nice way to cement the potential of your team. Foster is looking better and better all the
time and he has a different bye week than both projected starters. He may end up the starter over Barber though
if he wins the job and that spells V.A.L.U.E. Roster After Five Rounds: RB Anthony Thomas, Bears RB Deshaun Foster, Panthers WR Marvin Harrison, Colts WR Kevin Johnson, Browns Drafting from
the #9 slot
General Thoughts It is pretty much
the same strategy as the 8th slot.
The value of running backs here is not terrific so select a top receiver
and worry about taking a running back later.
Terrell Owens offers a lot more bang for your buck here than running
back or quarterback. Three receivers in
round one is not all that common but there is a wide gap between the top
receivers in fantasy football and the ones who come behind them. Any of the three receivers are a good pick
at this point in the draft but the advice given at # 7 and # 8 overall also
fits with this pick. Running backs
value should jump up on your draft board after taking a non-running back in
round one. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: WR Terrell Owens, 9th overall – See Moss and Harrison above. This owner actually has the best of both worlds in comparison to the Moss and Harrison owners above because he’ll get one of the stud receivers and get to choose which running back he likes best in the down swing of round two. Drafting ninth this year is a very nice place to be in. Round 2: RB Edgerrin James, 16th overall – It
is tempting to add a Peyton Manning to the roster but that will really leave
this owner in dire straights when he looks to add running backs who can start
later on. Edgerrin James has top
running back ability and is supposedly all the way back from his knee
injury. If he is, this owner puts
himself into a great position to be a contender. Make sure to target picking up Dominic Rhodes in round seven. Round 3: WR Tim Brown, 33rd overall – It is a
tough call but Brown is consistent and will team nicely with Terrell
Owens. This team will be able to get
their second running back in round four.
Round 4: QB Aaron Brooks, 40th overall – The
team could go in a couple of different directions but the best value here is to
take Aaron Brooks. He should put up
nice numbers in 2002 and gives this team strength at all three positions. Round 5: RB Warrick Dunn, 57th overall – Dunn
will catch a lot of passes, get some rushes in and be an effective second
running back for this team. He maybe
should have gone running back in round four but Brooks was a nice pick
there. Dunn should do the job for this team Roster After Five Rounds: QB Aaron Brooks, Saints RB Warrick Dunn, Falcons Drafting from
the #10 slot
General ThoughtsThe draft slot I least like to be in this season sits here at # 10 overall. However with smart and effective drafting, this draft position can quickly become a strength. The top talent at running back and receiver is usually gone and you can count yourself lucky if one of the players already listed has fallen to you here. The choice here is to take one of the top quarterbacks or a stud running back to anchor your stable. Not an easy call here, but I would take the best running back on the board. The reason for that is there are three quarterbacks who are all interchangeable as the best behind Kurt Warner and one will fall to you with your 2nd round pick. It also will give the team a running back who can be depended on each week and that is often crucial to success. Going running back here will give this owner more options later and that is important in a poor draft position. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: RB Ladain Tomlinson, 10th overall – This is a very tough call for an owner in round one. The top talent is gone at all three positions and it means he is likely already behind the eight ball a bit in comparison to the other owners. The good news is he can take a very nice running back here and still get one of the top quarterbacks if he chooses on the downswing in round two. It will be very important for this owner to take the best talent available each round to balance out the poor value he gets in round one compared to the top nine owners. Taking a running back in round one will help this owner to do just that. Round 2: QB Daunte Culpepper, 15th overall – The
owner taking the running back in round one would have made the correct call as
he got a top quarterback on the downswing in round two. An owner following this strategy has turned
a tough draft position into a great one as he has a very good beginning to his
team. Culpepper’s rushing ability gives
his excellent fantasy numbers and he could easily be as high as # 2 at the
position this year. Round 3: WR Jimmy Smith, 34th overall – This
team didn’t have a receiver yet and Jimmy Smith stands out like a sore
thumb. He is a perennial top receiver
and fits in nicely with this team. Round 4: RB Duce Staley, 39th overall – With
only one starting running back on the roster and the pickings growing slim, the
best call for this owner is to take one here.
Continuing to put the squeeze on the owners at the top of order is
crucial and it is also very important to have two running backs after four
rounds in fantasy drafts. This owner
needs to target Dorsey Levens in round 8 to make sure they have the backup for
Staley. Round 5: WR Amani Toomer, 58th overall – Toomer
will slide in nicely as the second receiver.
He is a thousand yard receiver every year and the Giants will have more
room down the field thanks to excellent rookie tight end, Jeremy Shockey who
will open up the middle of the field.
Picking a receiver here gives the team their starting roster at all the
main positions. Roster After Five Rounds: QB Daunte Culpepper, Vikings
Drafting from
the # 11 slot
General Thoughts on Drafting # 1 With the top players at all three main positions off the
board, it simply becomes taking the best player who is left on your board with
this pick. Taking one of the top
quarterbacks here is a good call but only if you follow the advice offered in
the five slot and not look at quarterback again until the rest of your starting
roster at the main positions (RB, WR, TE) is set. It isn’t a bad idea to get the quarterback position squared away
early if there is good talent to be had but you MUST draft smart from
that point on to secure good talent at the other positions. A
Mock Rundown of a Fantasy Draft Round 1: QB Jeff Garcia, 11th overall– As far as quarterbacks go, Jeff Garcia has a great shot at being the second best behind Kurt Warner this year. He is a nice addition to a fantasy team and will give this owner a decent start to his team. Round 2: RB Eddie George, 14th overall- After taking a quarterback in round one, now it is time to take the best running back left on the board. Eddie George will have a rebound year and is a nice pickup in round two. Round 3: RB Michael Bennett, 35th overall – This team already has a quarterback and no real value at receiver stands out so they may as well go for a running back with this pick. Bennett hasn’t looked great in the NFL so far but is in a good offense and should get his touches this year. He could be a very good pick or a bust but he is worth the shot at this point. Round 4: WR Darrell Jackson, 38th overall – this
team has no receivers so taking one here is an easy decision. Jackson will put up numbers this year and
will be a serviceable # 1 for the team. Round 5: RB Emmitt Smith – This team needs a receiver but
there is a ton of available talent still to be had. However starting running backs are almost gone so this team would
benefit from picking one up here. Smith
is consistent in the twilight of his career and has a different bye week than
the two running backs already selected.
Also puts pressure on the teams with only two backs to add some
depth. They can add another receiver in
round 6. Roster After Five Rounds: QB Jeff Garcia |