 
Value Hunting by Chris Smith and other Footballguys August 27th, 2002 Most owners know the players who should go in the first
three rounds.� It almost always goes as
expected and the top players all go off the board.� However, drafts are usually won in the middle to late rounds when
savvy fantasy football owners pluck solid talent to complement their early
picks.� In this article, eight of the
Footballguys (David Dodds, Greg Kellogg, Jason Wood, Chase Stuart, Tom Merrick,
Chris K, Mark Wimer and yours truly, Chris Smith) have taken the time to peruse
the �Draft Tracker� at myfantasyleague.com and determined which players have
the best value in the later stages of the draft (beginning with pick #
85).� Each member had to single out a maximum
of 2 QB�s/ 3 RB�s/ 3 WR�s/ 2 TE�s/ and 1 Defense that represent good
value.� Those players were then compiled
to determine the Fantasy Value consensus of those players along with some
written comments on each player. MFL #� -� �The average draft position the player has
been drafted at � myfantasyleague.com
average draft � last updated 08/25/2002 6 VotesTE Todd Heap, Ravens (Smith,
Dodds, Kellogg, Stuart, Wood, Merrick):�
MFL #: 126th overall -
Smith: Heap is a
special tight end in the right place and time to put up good numbers.� He learned from the best last year when he
backed up Shannon Sharpe and this year will be one of the focal points on the
rebuilding Ravens.� He will have a lot
of passes thrown his way and will end up in the top six at the tight end
position this year.� I have been
targeting him in every draft this year. -
Kellogg:
Heap replaces departed Shannon Sharpe.� This is a position that was looked to often last season.� With a young QB, the loss of top WR Qadry
Ismail and the elevation to first team, Heap has all the pieces lined up for a
great season. -
Wood: I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THIS. Heap, to me, represents the best value
in the entire draft at this point. In two leagues, I�ve seen him go as the 13th
and 14th TE selected, yet I see no reason why Heap shouldn�t compete
for a top 5 fantasy finish at his position. He�s as talented coming out of
college as Jeremy Shockey and Daniel Graham, yet he�s had a season to learn the
NFL game 5 VotesRB Olandis Gary, Broncos
(Smith, Kellogg, Stuart, Chris K, Wood):�
MFL #: 117th overall -
Smith:� While most owners are leaping aboard the
Clinton Portis bandwagon with great relish, Olandis Gary has an excellent shot
at winning the starting running back position with the team.� He looks completely recovered from injury,
is running hard and unlike Portis so far, can actually hang onto the football.� The fact you can get Gary much later in the
draft represents good value. -
Wood:
Here is a guy who, by all accounts, has just as good a chance to be the Denver
starting running back as Clinton Portis, an unproven rookie, yet Portis is
going several rounds ahead of him. Plus, at pick 130, you�re talking about
possibly getting not just a starter, but a 1,200 yard/10 TD rusher when other
teams are drafting backups as protection and taking fliers on 4th
wide receivers. 4 VotesQB Danny Wuerffel, Redskins
(Smith, Dodds, Wood, Merrick):� MFL #: 160th
overall -
Merrick:
#1 QB in Fun-in-Gun
offense -
Wood: Danny W seems like the likely starter in Washington. I�m not
completely sold on this guy but considering he�s falling into the land of other
team�s backups, he could be an unbelievable steal -
Smith:
Rolling the dice on one of the Redskin quarterbacks could pay amazing dividends
later on.� Wuerffel is the favorite to
win the job at this time. RB Jamal White, Browns
(Dodds, Kellogg, Stuart, Merrick):� MFL
#: 147th overall -
Kellogg:
White has outplayed rookie RB William Green this preseason, he
knows the blocking schemes and he is an excellent receiver out of the
backfield.� He truly has earned the
starting position, however, when a first-round pick is involved, you never know
which way the decision will go.� Still
even if he doesn't start, he should get plenty of chances as a backup and third
down specialist. RB Amos Zereoue, Steelers (Smith,
Dodds, Wood, Wimer): MFL #: 128th overall -
Smith:� Zereoue is a special running back simply
waiting for his opportunity to shine.� Jerome
Bettis appears to be on his last legs and it is a matter of time before Zereoue
gets more work on a game-to-game basis.�
He will get lots of touches as a third down/change of pace runner but he
could be much more than that this year. -
Wood: All the hype behind other backups such as Barlow and Canidate may
(or may not) be warranted�but Famous Amos is in position to be a dominant
running back if Bettis gets injured. Bettis is old, has a history of nagging
injuries, and one has to believe that his size puts even more pressure on his
already over-worked body. Amos would be the starting tailback on the top
running team in the NFL, with the best run-blocking line in the NFL WR Dez White, Bears (Smith,
Kellogg, Wimer, Chris K): MFL #: 165th
overall -
Smith:� Everyone has forgotten about Dez White and
how delighted the Bears were when they stole him in round three during the 2000
draft.� He has had some success his
first two seasons and has been the best receiver in Bears camp this year.� He had a problem with his eyesight that has
been corrected and he is catching everything thrown his way.� It is a crowded receiving core in Chicago
but White will be given every opportunity to shine on the football field. -
Kellogg: Everyone
is worried about Marcus Robinson and/or David Terrell.� Terrell, despite rededicating himself this
off-season, still hasn't learned to be where he is supposed to when he is
supposed to.� And Robinson hasn't even
gotten on the field yet.� In the
meantime, White has impressed everyone with his work ethic and the improvements
he has made in catching the ball 3 VotesRB Tyrone Wheatley, Raiders
(Smith, Wimer, Stuart): MFL #: 124th overall -
Smith:� What a difference a season can make.� Last year Wheatley was over-valued and this
season he is under-valued.� He will
certainly get touches and may be the go-to guy inside the ten-yard line.� He represents tremendous value in a fantasy
draft. -
Wimer: He should
be the �big back� in Oakland again this season. Lots of short-yardage TD�s. He
looked very solid running for his score against Tennessee. 2 VotesQB Mark Brunell, Jaguars
(Kellogg, Chris K): MFL #: 116th overall -
Kellogg:
Granted, unless Jimmy Smith gets his rear into camp, Brunell is
a stretch here, but if and when Smith does come in - Brunell's value
skyrockets, especially when one considers that the Jags face 10 weak pass
defenses this season. -
Chris K: True, he is without Jimmy Smith, and Fred Taylor can never
seem to stay healthy, but Brunell always hovers around the Top 15, and his attractive
schedule (including Indy, Houston and the miserable Giants D), make him a good
spot play. QB Brad Johnson, Buc�s
(Wood, Merrick): MFL #: 115th overall -
Merrick: Rich Gannon
like turnaround in his career -
Wood: I
really think Gruden will make this guy a producer. He�s been a quality QB in
three different offenses and now is in a situation that�s probably the most
attractive of his career. He�s been a forgotten man thus far in drafts QB Vinny Testaverde, Jets
(Chris K, Stuart): MFL #: 148th overall -
Chris K:
Sure, this sounds like a Chase
pick, but if he can hold off Pennington, the Jets can put up some numbers. Moss
and Coles are speedy and Chrebet is sure handed.� Martin takes pressure off the slow-footed Vinny.� Not a bad 2nd QB in the late rounds. QB Drew Brees, Chargers
(Smith, Wimer): MFL #: 143rd overall -
Smith:� Now that Brees has won the quarterbacking
battle in San Diego he should be climbing up the draft boards but I haven�t
noticed him doing so yet.� He is a good
talent who will have a production season for the Chargers.� He will make the typical mistakes a young
quarterback does, but will get better as the year goes on and is a decent
fantasy backup. -
Wimer: He is the starter for San Diego, and yet is ranked behind
rookie QB and expansion team starter David Carr. WR Travis Taylor, Ravens
(Smith, Stuart): MFL #: 111th overall -
Smith: Travis
Taylor is now entering his third season as a Raven. While he has had some
moments as a receiving so far in the NFL, his statistics the past two seasons
were nothing special. What was encouraging about last season though was
he looked more comfortable on the field and did have 549 yards receiving
despite being the third option on an offense that had Qadry Ismail and Shannon
Sharpe. With those two now gone from the offense, that is 1800 yards and
9 touchdowns removed from the offense. Those totals will be made up
somewhere and Taylor is easily the top option at receiver this season. WR J.J. Stokes, 49ers
(Dodds, Kellogg): MFL #: 134th overall -
Kellogg:� Stokes had a solid finish last year and has
impressed the coaching staff thus far this preseason.� If he can even approach the hype that he had coming out of
college, he could be the surprise wide receiver of the year.� And it doesn't hurt to have Terrell Owens
taking the Safeties attention every play. WR Brian Finneran, Falcons
(Chris K, Wimer): MFL #: 139th overall -
Chris K:
Tall, fast, and the clear-cut #1
WR for Reeves.� Don�t let Willie Jackson
scare you.� The problems are that Vick
may be looking to dink and dunk to the RBs and TE�s.� However, his upside from this draft slot is amazing. -
Wimer: Definitely
a starting wide receiver for the Falcons. Combining Vick�s strong arm and
Finneran�s speed � he had a huge YPC in 2001 (21.3!) � yields the potential for
a lot of long-bomb TD�s. Especially valuable in leagues that reward long TD
catches. WR D�Wayne Bates, Bears
(Wimer, Merrick): MFL #: 143rd overall -
Merrick:
very solid #2 receiver
in powerful Vikings' offense. -
Wimer: Daunte Culpepper is healthy again
in 2002, and Randy Moss can�t catch every pass in Minnesota. Bates looks like
their new possession receiver, and a good one at that. I see him going over
1000 yards, easy. TE Randy McMichael, Dolphins
(Smith, Wimer): MFL #: 193rd overall -
Smith:� This kid is looking like a star in
camp.� He has made some unbelievable
catches so far and is getting stronger every week of pre-season.� He will be the opening day starter and could
very easily end up in the top twelve for the year.� New offensive coordinator Norv Turner loves to utilize the tight
end position. -
Wimer: Rookie TE in Norv Turner�s
system in Miami looks very impressive in games and practice. He should be the
starting TE by opening day over Jed Weaver, and should produce big (top 10
among TE�s) #�s Def Cowboys (Smith, Chris
K): MFL #: 141st overall -
Smith:� I have the Cowboys as the second-ranked
defense this year.� They typically go
much later than that in fantasy drafts.�
They are loaded top to bottom and play very conservative on offense,
which will keep the scores low.� They
have been going as the eleventh defense taken on average.� That is outstanding value. -
Chris K:
The Cowboys are generating a lot of FF hype.� They added some quality players to their defense.� If they can force some more turnovers, then
they have a chance to put up some defensive scoring.� Of course, it doesn�t hurt to play Houston, Carolina, the Giants
and Detroit. Def 49ers (Stuart, Wimer): MFL
#: 147th overall -
Wimer: The Niners
had three shutouts in final six games 2001! They return virtually the entire
defensive squad intact, and are an awesome combination of youth yet also NFL
experience. Single
Votes: QB Jim Miller, Bears
(Kellogg): MFL #: 172nd overall -
Kellogg: Miller is a
decent QB with outstanding weapons. QB Jake Plummer, Cardinals
(Stuart): MFL #: 104th overall - Smith:� Plummer appeared to come into his own during the 2001 campaign and the Cardinals will need to pass a ton. QB Rob Johnson, Buc�s
(Wimer): MFL #: 212th overall -
Wimer: Johnson
seems to have caught Gruden�s eye in TB. This is a high-risk, potential for
high-reward type pick � make sure you have two solid QB�s ahead of Johnson and
then take a flyer on him in late rounds. He could pay off huge! QB Joey Harrington, Lions
(Dodds): MFL #: 159th overall -
Dodds:� The Detroit Lions do
not look to be a very good football team again this season. Vegas
Odds-makers expect them to win 6 games this year. So what does this have
to do with Harrington you ask? Expect this team to be behind a lot this
year. Add in an old non-explosive runner like James Stewart and it's
obvious what they will doing a lot of this year - passing the football.
Once the losses mount for this team, why wouldn't the Lions go with
Harrington? He has outplayed Mike McMahon this preseason and has a lot
stronger arm. I expect Harrington to be the starter for the Lions from
week 3 on and possibly sooner. RB Troy Hambrick, Cowboys
(Merrick): MFL #: 129th overall -
Smith: He has shown
power and quickness on the field.� All
he may need is a chance to succeed. RB Jonathon Wells, Texans
(Wimer): MFL #: 132nd overall -
Wimer: Wells
looks like the starter in Houston, 16 carries for 63 yards vs. KC (Allen 6-10)
and 10-50 and 1 TD vs. NO (Allen 6-11) . For some strange reason his average
pick is 26 lower than James Allen RB Mike Alstott, Buc�s
(Wimer): MFL #: 91st overall -
Chris K:
�Allegedly in Gruden�s doghouse,
but consistently puts up around 1000 yards and 8-10 TDs a year.� Unless Gruden benches him completely, I see
Pittman faltering and Alstott getting more carries.� At this ADP, a complete steal RB Ricky Watters, UFA
(Dodds): MFL #: 167th overall -
Dodds: People
are so quick to forget how good this player was. Yes he wants the ball
and isn't always the team player. But Ricky Watters can play. Let's
not forget that it took an injury to Ricky Watters for Shaun Alexander to get
on the field full-time. And now Shaun is a top 3 pick this year.
Ricky could have signed with many teams this year, except he refuses to be the
backup. He wants to start. And because of this he is currently
without a team. Each day that goes by, his fantasy value continues to
drop in drafts around the country. This is a boom or bust pick for
sure. Watters won't put up average stats. He will either be picked
up by a team that needs his services (i.e. he will start) or he will not play
football this year. As valuable as the RB position is, Ricky
deserves some consideration real late in your fantasy draft. RB Jamal Anderson, UFA
(Wood): MFL #: 174th overall -
Wood:
There�s obviously risk with drafting a guy who�s got two busted knees and is
currently unsigned. BUT, if he signs with either Indianapolis or New England,
he�s got to be worth a flier this late. Conceptually, he could be the starter
behind two of the better offensive lines in the league. And, if he signs in NE
especially, I�m no believer that A. Smith all of the sudden found a new skill
level at the age of 30. If he�s the fluke I think he is, Anderson could be the
go to guy by mid season WR Quincy Morgan, Browns
(Smith): MFL #: 188th overall -
Smith:� Morgan was very undisciplined as a rookie
last year and did not have the work ethic or the study habits to be very
productive.� However he has been
completely different in camp so far and could be a major steal in the draft
this year.� He is the # 2 receiver in
Cleveland and the entire offense should be better from Tim Couch to the running
attack with year two with the same offensive coordinator.� He is on average the 84th receiver
selected in fantasy drafts.� That is
absurdly low. WR Bobby Shaw, Jaguars
(Kellogg): MFL #: 187th overall -
Kellogg: �Right now Shaw is the best receiver the Jags have.� If Smith comes back, Shaw slides into the
Keenan McCardell role in this offense.�
If not, you have a team's No. 1 WR from your last pick of the
draft.� And you can't forget those 10
weak pass defenses he will be facing this season WR Joey Galloway, Cowboys
(Stuart): MFL #: 110th overall -
Smith:�
With Galloway, the potential is always
there.� He was one of the up and coming
stars a few seasons ago but has completely fallen off most owner�s radar
screens.� He has a big upside if the
Cowboys can get some good play from the quarterbacks. WR Jerome Pathon, Saints
(Stuart): MFL #: 149th overall -
Smith:�
Pathon was almost one of my value picks.� He was beginning to look very good last year
before injury took care of his season.�
With everyone drooling over the potential of Donte Stallworth, perhaps
Pathon will quietly have a very nice year as the real # 2 receiver in New
Orleans. WR Jacquez Green, Redskins
(Merrick): MFL #: 137th overall -
Merrick: #2 receiver in the Fun-in-Gun could
post decent numbers. WR Todd Pinkston, Eagles
(Merrick): MFL #: 183rd overall -
Merrick: could be the #1 in Eagles offense
if he steps up WR Jabar Gaffney, Texans
(Chris K): MFL #: 144th overall -
Chris K: The WR1
on a bad team is still a WR1.� Both he
and Carr are the real deal.� Johnnie
Morton pulled down nearly 1200 yards as the WR1 on the Lions.�� I love him late WR Peerless Price, Bills
(Wood): MFL #: 93rd overall -
Wood:� Here is a guy who caught 55 passes (just 12
less than Moulds), 895 yards (just 9 yards less than Moulds!) and SEVEN TDs
(two MORE than Moulds!!)�Yet he�s going in the mid rounds while Moulds is a top
15 selection at receiver. Price is a guy who shows all the signs of being a big
time breakout star. Plus, Bledsoe has no predisposed tendency to look Moulds�
way. Forget about Josh Reed, at least this year, I�m betting that Price leads the
Bills in yards, receptions and touchdowns this season WR Donald Driver, Packers
(Wood): MFL #: 170th overall -
Wood:
This late in the draft, you�re goal is to pick someone that might, if all the
pieces fall, surprise people and give you some worth as protection against your
earlier picks. Yet, guys like Javon Walker, Robert Ferguson and Terry Glenn are
all going ahead of Driver DESPITE the fact that he�s one of the few healthy
receivers in GB camp. He�s outplayed everyone else and could be a full-time starter
all season long. Just look at Schroeder last season to see if that is worth
anything. WR Michael Westbrook, Bengals
(Wood): MFL #: 143rd overall -
Wood:
Let me first say that I�m not a big fan of Westbrook. Yet, he has quietly
recovered from his broken wrist and looks very likely to actually start on
opening day. To land a bona fide WR1 on any NFL team this late is worth
considering, even if it is this head case WR Terrence Wilkins, Rams
(Dodds): MFL #: 178th overall -
Dodds: Terrence Wilkins was brought in
to be the #3 WR on the explosive Rams offense. He is likely a better
player than the player he replaced (Az-Zahir Hakim). He is just 27 years
old. And yet he gets no love in fantasy drafts around the country.
Imagine what his value would be if Holt or Bruce were to get injured?
That prospect alone makes him worth a late round pick. But as the #3 WR
for the Rams, he will also get some opportunities. I won't be surprised
when he outplays many #2 WRs this season WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
(Dodds): MFL #: 169th overall -
Smith: I have always
believed that Wayne is a better receiver than Qadry Ismail and as this season
goes on, he will begin to prove why.� He
was drafted to be a big-time receiver in the NFL and he will begin to realize
that potential during the upcoming season.�
Look for Ismail to get most of the work early but Wayne will begin to
cut into his playing time more and more. TE Eric Johnson, 49ers
(Kellogg): MFL #: 136th overall -
Kellogg:
Go figure: the guy finishes in the top 12 in scoring as a rookie and gets no
love in his sophomore season.� Most
receivers show great growth between their first and second, or second and third
seasons.� When you start strong, look
for the growth in the second year TE Michael Ricks, Lions
(Stuart): MFL #: 208th overall -
Smith:�
The Lions have a very poor receiving core and
somebody will have to step up and make plays.�
Perhaps the tight end position featuring Michael Ricks will be the place
to start.� TE Daniel Graham, Patriots
(Wimer): MFL #: 177th overall -
Wimer: No stats to speak of in
the pre-season due to injury, but should be starter early in season. Loads of
talent TE Ricky Dudley, Browns
(Dodds): MFL #: 201st overall -
Dodds: Rickey Dudley signed the big
contract last season to be Cleveland's tight end. But he got injured
after 4 games and never saw the field again. Coming into this year, he is
not being drafted in fantasy leagues. Most likely he will start the year
on your league's waiver wire. But if he can stay healthy, he could be a
big part of the Cleveland offense. The Browns have a great defense, an
easy schedule, and believe they can win this year. Rickey Dudley brings a
14.0 ypc career average, which is phenomenal for the TE position. I
expect this team to play ball control offense and use the TE more than most
teams. If Dudley can stay healthy, he will be a tremendous value if
picked late TE David Sloan, Saints
(Wood): MFL #: 141st overall -
Wood:
Seems every season David Sloan gets taken along with tight ends such as Dave
Moore and Kyle Brady, yet, when healthy, he�s been far more effective. Last
season, on an abysmal Detroit team, he caught had more than 400 yards and 7
touchdowns. Now he moves to New Orleans, a pass happy offense to be sure Def Browns (Kellogg): MFL #: 115th
overall -
Kellogg: With one
of the best DLs in the game and speedy LBs, Cleveland will continue to improve
on defense.� The loss of Jamir Miller is
sure to drop them in some folk�s eyes but you should not make that mistake.� Ex-Cowboy Darren Hambrick will replace
Miller.� Hambrick accounted for over 150
tackles in 2000 and should be an adequate replacement Def Redskins (Chris K): MFL
#: 123rd overall -
Merrick: Marvin Lewis will have this collection of All-Stars
playing at a high level when the games count Def Raiders (Wood): MFL #:
154th overall -
Wood:
There has been too much focus on the negative this year in Oakland (i.e,
Gruden�s departure, Russell�s suspension). However, this is a team that added a
quality veteran linebacker (Romanowski) from a division rival, drafted the
consensus best LB in the draft (Napolean Harris), an outstanding shutdown
corner (Phillip Buchanon), and a two dominant defensive run stoppers (Sam Adams
and John Parella). This is added to a team that already had Charles Woodson,
Greg Biekert and gets Trace Armstrong back from injury. I see few defenses that
improved themselves as much as the Raiders, yet people are forgetting the team
on draft day Def Colts (Dodds): MFL #: 178th
overall -
Smith: I also like
the Colts to do well this year.� The
change in defensive philosophy will allow the Colts to use their speed on the
field and that will result in both turnovers and sacks.� Selecting the Colts defense is a� very good bargain in the final round(s) of
your draft Best Value according
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