There�s always next season, when running backs switch teams�

As I thought about my last column of the 2002 season, I brainstormed about what my final topic should be. At first, I was going to write up a column about late season injury replacements and to focus on those owners that are now facing their Super Bowls without the services of all-world players including Priest Holmes and Terrell Owens. But, after a moment of sanity I thought better of it because:

1)       No one should feel sorry for anyone who owned Priest or T.O. this season

2)       If you really need a huge game from the likes of Mike Cloud or Cedric Wilson, their likely replacements in the starting lineup, there�s not much I can do for you anyway

3)       There�s plenty of people who didn�t make their Super Bowl and are already focused on next year

So with that in mind, I�m turning my attention to the 2003 Fantasy Football Season! �I know, I know, you are probably thinking that it�s a bit early to talk about next year, but that�s just not so.� The NFL season never really ends. After the NFL playoffs there is free agency, the draft, and before you know it, we�re back into the heart of training camp. Let�s face it folks, there�s no better time than the present to get ready to either defend your title (best of luck to those that have that chance) or prepare to prove this year was a fluke (all you Kurt Warner and A-Train owners out there).

This week, we take a look at player movement.� Every season, there is a fair amount of movement in the NFL. In the age of the salary cap, there are constantly players on the move.� For some players, their new teams marks increased opportunity, a chance to show the world that you belong in the NFL (e.g., Ahman Green as he moved from the Seahawks to the Packers).� For others, it�s a chance to show that you�ve still got some gas left in the tank (e.g., Jerry Rice as a Raider).� Now, there are two sides to every coin. For every Jerry Rice, there�s a Yancey Thigpen. For every Ricky Williams, there�s a Michael Pittman.

THE STUDY: Running Backs

For the purposes of this study, I took a look at all the running backs that changed teams over the last ten years (1992-2001).� Now, this incorporates backs who left via free agency, were cut, and were traded. Obviously, trades are very rare in the NFL, but not completely unheard of (i.e., Ahman Green being traded to the Packers from the Seahawks).�

In the first phase of the study, I limited my results to backs who had AT LEAST one hundred (100) carries in BOTH the last season with their initial team and the first season with their new team.� I chose this litmus test as a means of focusing on backs that had active roles prior to their change of scenery, and were also an important part of their new team�s offense.

The Findings:

�         There were 40 running backs that switched teams since 1992 and had at least 100 carries in both seasons (the first with Team B, the last with Team A).

�         As you�ll see from the table below, there was a marked increase in production across the board for the backs in their first year with their new team.

�         As you can see, the improvement is largely based on the fact that these backs historically are given a larger opportunity. Total fantasy points scored increases 20%, but a huge portion of that is simply by virtue of getting more touches (14% increase in rushes and 15% increase in receptions).

�         Twelve of the forty (30%) saw their production decrease with their new team.

�         By far, the biggest improvement among RBs who switched teams came last season, when Priest Holmes joined the Chiefs. In his final season with Baltimore, Holmes had just 809 yards from scrimmage, but jumped to an astounding 2,169 yards last season. His VBD went from (66) in 2000 to 142 in 2001.

In the second phase of the study, I expanded the data set to include any backs that had at least 100 carries in EITHER the last year with Team A OR their first year with Team B.

�         This expanded the data set to 76 running backs and had at least 100 carries in either season.

�         As you�ll note from the table below, there was virtually no change in the aggregate production from Team A to Team B, largely reflecting the notion of regression to the mean.

�         Remarkably, 39 backs (51%) saw their production decline with Team B, while 37 (49%) backs saw their production increase.

�         Nothing too compelling from this phase of the study. By including anyone who had 100 carries in either season, but not necessarily both, you include quite a few backs that ended up going to a team as a backup (i.e., veterans trying to hang on), which is why the rate of backs who saw their production decrease went from 30% to 50% in this study.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

When evaluating something such as player movement as a factor in performance, it�s very difficult to put much credence in the results considering all the exogenous factors that go into every player�s movement. Was a player no longer productive, and signed with a new team as a backup? Was a young player never given the chance to shine, but finally proved themselves on their new team? How do the offensive lines differ between Team A & Team B? Are the coaches calling plays effectively for the running game? Is there competition at the position, a RBBC, or is the back being given a feature role? Was a player injured in one of the years in question?

All that being said, there does appear to be something interesting about the data, particularly when focusing on backs who were active participants on both teams (i.e., 100 or more carries). Those backs showed a marked trend of improving their results on Team B. Now what you do with this data largely depends on the individual RB in question. Luckily for us, our draft lists and projections are not beholden to strict statistics. We, unlike this blind study, will have the benefit of knowing which backs are being given a chance to shine with their new teams, how their new teams look in terms of the line and supporting offensive talent, and whether a player has injury, and how productive the back has been in the past.

Before we disembark, let me leave you with a list of running backs that are either unrestricted free agents, or are very likely to be cut by their current teams. Remember that some of the best fantasy running backs in the league are guys who have changed teams, including Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk, Ahman Green, Ricky Williams, etc�