 As many of you know, there are a group of Footballguys, myself
included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a
means to succeed in fantasy football.
Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using
historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual
projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in
conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the
season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant
in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course… One Week Does Not a Season Make, BUT…
We
all know that you cannot draw too many conclusions from one week of the NFL
season. Obviously, there are so many factors at play in any given week, none
more important than the strength of the opposing team’s defense, which simply
cannot be gauged until the regular season has gotten under way. That said, there are obviously situations in Week One that you can use to your advantage. Perhaps a player under performed expectations allowing you to snatch him up from a disgruntled owner. Perhaps someone had a monstrous Week One allowing you to sell high to the unsuspecting homer in your league (i.e., dealing Quincy Morgan to your buddy, the Browns fan!). Generally, my advice following Week One would be PATIENCE.
Most of you aren’t going to believe that your studs are duds after one
disappointing performance, nor are you going to fall madly in love with the
fluke monster performance. It’s taking a calculated, even keel approach to what
happens in the early going that can often lead you to a league title. So, this week, since I feel that discretion is the better part of valor, I’m going to take a light hearted look at some statistical data that may, or may not, be worth factoring into your early season maneuvers. Issue of the Week: The Tight End “du
Jour” Let’s face
it, for most fantasy owners, the tight end position is an afterthought that’s
dealt with just before you start thinking about your kicker and deep, deep
sleepers. Unless you’re lucky enough to nab Tony Gonzalez, owners are content
to zero in on “one of the top group” realizing that, in general, there isn’t much
separating the third best fantasy tight end from the twelfth. As a
result, there is always a frenzy to grab tight ends off the waiver wire. People
are always looking to bolster the position after the first week or two. This
year is no different, as people are singing the praises or players such as Randy McMichael, Itula Mili and Anthony Becht. Consider, in week one: ·
THIRTEEN tight ends scored a
touchdown ·
ELEVEN gained at least 35 yards ·
SEVENTEEN caught at least three
passes Data Set: Tight Ends that met at least one of the
aforementioned criteria in Week One
Of that, three players met all three criteria: ·
Tony Gonzalez (KC) – 5 for 87
yards and a TD = 14 fantasy points ·
Randy McMichael (MIA) – 4 for 73
and a TD = 13 fantasy points ·
Anthony Becht (NYJ) – 4 for 36
and a TD = 9 fantasy points Now, if
your league is like most, there’s NO chance that Gonzo is available, there’s a
decent chance that Becht is available, but there’s an EXCELLENT chance that
McMichael is available. So the question becomes, is one outsized
performance indicative of a productive full year at the tight end position? To get an
understanding of this issue, I took a look at all the Week One performances at
the tight end position dating back to 1996. There were 237 samples in the data
set. I then looked at two sub groups: Group A, those tight ends that had AT
LEAST two of the three aforementioned criteria, and, Group B, those tight ends
that met ALL THREE criteria. GROUP A: (Tight Ends that met two of the three
criteria in Week One) ·
59 instances since 1996 ·
On average, those players scored 7.5
fantasy points (conventional scoring) ·
High was 26 points (Keith Jackson,
1996), low was 3.5 points (Irv Smith, 1998 and Jamie Asher, 1997) ·
Median score was 5.7 points ·
In 32 instances (54%), these players finished above the baseline for
the full year ·
This screen properly identified above
baseline players 44% of the time (i.e., it captured 32 instances out of a
possible 72 above baseline performance from 1996-2001) GROUP B: (Tight Ends that met all three criteria
in Week One) ·
14 instances since 1996 ·
On average, those players scored 12.8
fantasy points (conventional scoring) ·
High was 26 points (Keith Jackson,
1996), low was 9.5 points (Erron Kinney, 2001) ·
Median score was 11.7 points ·
In 10 instances (71%), these players finished above the baseline for
the year ·
In six instances (43%), these players finished in the Top FIVE for
the year ·
This screen properly identified top
five players 20% of the time (i.e., it captured six instances out of a possible
20 top five fantasy performance from 1996-2001) OK, so you’re thinking…”GREAT WOODROW, now that
the heck does this all mean?!?!” Very
simply, the tight end position is one where many of us constantly struggle to
find value. Too often we turn to the hot hand because someone caught a
touchdown pass in the early season and we think that portends greater things.
But honestly, can you reasonably expect Billy Miller (he of the one catch for a
TD fame) to be a top fantasy option all season long? Of course not. However, if
you look for tight ends that are producing early on not just through scoring,
but through some combination of receptions, yardage and scoring, you’re more
likely to find a player that will really contribute to your fantasy squad. The data is
fairly compelling. In more than half the cases where a player netted at least
two of the three criteria (i.e., 3+ receptions, 35+ yards, 1+ TD) in Week One,
that tight end went on to finish above the baseline for the full season. More impressively, players that met all
three requirements were ‘above baseline’ players an astounding 71% of the time,
BUT WERE TOP FIVE in more than 40% of the cases! So with that in mind, don’t hesitate to jump on Randy
McMichael and Anthony Becht if they’re available in your leagues. Chances are, they’re the
real deal. CHEERS! |