The Dynasty Continues - Part 1
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Posted 8/26 by Jason Stratton - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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From January to September I, like most of you, read a hundred or so Q&A
type articles filled with questions like "I'm in a performance based scoring
league and I have players W, X, Y and Z. I can only keep three. Who should I
keep?" Nearly every time I have encountered one, I chuckle or at least
smirk.
I, like most of you, am a seasoned FF player and realize that the writer is
responding based on a ranked list (usually posted along with the article) and
a couple of very well known rules (usually stated in numerous articles posted
along with the article) such as RBs are more valuable than WRs, etc. So it seems
like wasted effort on the writer's part and a lack of effort on the part of
the one with the question. ...I don't think that's why I chuckle though.
I wonder why these people are asking someone else to make their decision for
them, which takes the fun out of playing FF. Why would anyone play FF if they're
going to ask someone else to make the tough decisions or select a player based
solely on a published ranking? Isn't this what FF is, making weekly decisions
based on what we see on the field each weekend and the news we read during the
offseason? To play FF is to make these decisions. If you don't make the decisions,
you are not really playing, someone else is. I can understand those weekly lineup
questions only a little more. "Should I play X or Y this week?" The
writer might have some statistical information about the opposing defense, of
which you are unaware. Still, I would only use this as another data point in
making up my own mind. ...I don't think this is why I chuckle either.
The reason I chuckle is because I play in a Dynasty league and do not have
to make these keeper decisions
well not in the same way. For those of you
who are not familiar with dynasty leagues the concept is very similar to a keeper
league, but instead of keeping just one, three or 8 players, you're able to
keep all of your players. The catch is that after you hold your draft, you have
to decide whether the players you've just drafted are more valuable than those
already on your roster because you have to cut players from your roster to get
down to the roster maximum prior to the first game of the season or whatever
deadline you league has set.
The reason I play in a dynasty league and not a keeper or redraft league is
because of the additional layers of strategy that are involved. For instance,
when making your player evaluations for the draft or roster cuts or a FA pickup,
you have to be conscious of whether the decision you are making is a short-term
solution or a long-term investment and weigh the consequences. You do not want
to fill your roster with aging veterans and cripple your team for years to come,
which incidentally you can do in a keeper league for instant success and still
recover the following year with a good draft. Nor do you want to load up on
first and second year players, as this would preclude competing in the upcoming
season. You want a nice blend of players that provide the best opportunity to
succeed in both the short-term and the years to come. You also want to be aggressive
in trading away aging players prior to any dramatic decline in value. And you
want to have a continuum of developing players on your bench who can be a bye
week fill-in today and a potential stud of tomorrow. It's not easy and there
are factors that you do not have to consider when making decisions in a keeper
or redraft league.
Many dynasty league players will cite a similarity with the way the NFL operates
as an attraction. While we can take inspiration from the NFL with rules for
FA, waivers and the like, it is not a reason to choose a dynasty league format.
The reason to choose a format and specific rules is to maximize the challenges
involved without being so difficult as to eliminate the fun.
Above, I described what a dynasty league is and introduced some of the challenges
involved when trying to develop a yearly contender. These challenges and an
attachment to the players on my roster are the reasons why I enjoy dynasty leagues
above all others. This is all well and good, but it does not help you any, unless
it encourages you to start or participate in a dynasty league. Now, I hope to
provide the guiding strategies that I have used to guide my franchise to success
year in and year out.
Be Patient
A dynasty team is not like a redraft league. Just because a stud player or two
does not pan out or is injured does not indicate that it is time for wholesale
changes. You have to remember that these are the players you will have to play
with next year too. An injured or underperforming player one season still has
value for the following season. Trading or waiving such a player will not return
good value on your investment.
Embrace Change
This may seem contradictory to the statements above, but you need to have a
healthy amount of turnover on your roster from year to year. This can occur
through the variety of traditional mechanisms, trade, free agency and the draft.
Regardless it is important to have this turnover. The weak must be culled to
strengthen the herd. This does not mean that the players that are removed from
your roster are "weak", but you want to keep the strongest and replace
those players who are not with players who will be stronger than they are. In
this way, your team will evolve and become stronger year after year.
Acquire THE Marquee Players
You want to have all the studs. You want to have Culpepper, McNabb and Vick;
Tomlinson, Williams and Portis; Harrison, Owens and Moss; Gonzalez, Heap and
Shockey. Because of competition and constraints such as roster size, draft order,
etc, it is likely impossible to accumulate all of these players, but that is
your goal even if it means sacrificing some depth. Your depth will occur via
the developing players and rookies on the tail end of your roster. These players
will be the marquee players in years to come...if you do your homework. The
trick is identifying these players early or successfully trading for them. The
tactics to do so is beyond the scope of this article and will be the subject
of my next.
Stockpile Draft Picks
This is the corollary of the previous strategy. High draft picks are like gold.
While they are not nearly as valuable as the marquee players, they are definitely
worth more than the second tier players. Draft picks are the primary way to
acquire the marquee players before they are household names. You will miss with
some picks. That's why you need multiple high draft picks. If you embrace the
necessity of turning over a decent percentage of your roster every year and
the need to have players develop while on your bench, then you need a constant
stream of new blood, which comes from the draft. While the tactics for acquiring
the draft picks will be the subject of my next article (along with acquiring
the marquee players as mentioned previously), the ability to identify which
players to draft is obviously the key to success and will be the subject of
the subsequent article.
Play Favorites
This concept goes against all the theories including a number published on this
site. At every turn you are encouraged to leave emotion out of the equation.
On the contrary, I encourage you to fall in love with the players you identify.
(Don't become too attached though as you will have to turn them over sooner
rather than later.) Fall in love with the personality, the ability, the size
and the speed. Don't buy into all the hype surrounding a player though, but
use the hype as another data point in making up your own mind. Put all the factors
together and decide who you think will be the next big thing and believe. You
have to trust you feelings and have faith in your analysis because (99% of the)
players do not develop overnight. It's going to take a year or two for the players
you believe in to blossom. You will hate giving up on a player only to see him
take the league by storm once he matures.
Be Patient
This leads back to the cardinal rule for playing in a dynasty league. You will
have to be patient with a player as he matures, if you want to identify him
before he becomes a marquee player. If you do not, you will end up over paying
for those players later and never truly contend year after year. You will be
stuck in a cycle of up and down years, contending then rebuilding.
Know When to Cut Your Losses
This may seem contradictory to what I have just written, but it addresses your
roster's turnover rate. You have to know when a player will never become that
marquee player you had envisioned when you acquired him. This site and others
have analysis on breakout years by position. Use this information as a tool
to determine whether your players may never break out. This is the time to try
to move him via trade or even waive him. You only want players on your roster
who are either already one of those marquee players or has the potential to
be one. If you have done your homework though, these players will have value
to the other teams in your league. So while the player may never live up to
the potential you envisioned, he will be a solid second tier player whom the
other teams will snatch up. This is the main tactic for stockpiling those draft
picks, which I will elaborate on in my next article.
Pay Attention to College Football and NFL Draft Analysis
This is important to identifying which players to fall in love with. You do
not have to actually watch much (if any) college football, just the analysis.
Pay attention to the national championship contenders and the key players. Pay
attention to the huge playmakers each week. Watch the "Plays of the Week".
In this way, you have an idea of who the top players are before the draft analysis
begins. As soon as the bowl games are under way, start scouring the web for
draft analysis and rumors. As the draft approaches, the volume of information
grows. Look at all the measurables from the combine: height, weight, speed,
reps, high jump, etc. Again, don't believe the hype because it will be in high
gear at this time. It is just another data point in your analysis. This is the
time you fall in love with a player. Before the NFL draft actually rolls around,
you should already know which players you want to target in your draft. You
should be able to compare the prospective rookies to those from the previous
couple of years that are available in your league's draft or even to whom you
might want to acquire via trade, players that you might have fallen in love
with before, but were not able to draft. Having all this data also allows you
to compare to those players currently on your roster. This will assist in determining
which players you might want to trade off your roster for picks. As soon as
the NFL draft is over, look at the early analysis of the top prospects for the
following year. I already have a short list of players that I'm starting to
fall in love with for next year.
Be Organized
As you might have gathered from the previous strategy, dynasty fantasy football
is a year round activity, much more so than redraft and keeper leagues. This
is one of the reasons why I enjoy dynasty leagues the most. You can try to make
off season trades well in advance of the hype; make plans for you draft; decide
which players to fall in love with; etc. It is not sufficient to just go through
the motions though. You must organize and record your thoughts then store away
the pertinent data. Every year I create a spreadsheet with everything from the
league rules (which change every year) to the final rosters and the stats and
fantasy points scored for every player. This is just the starting point. I maintain
this spreadsheet with off season changes and trades and add to it the NFL schedule
grid and bits of data about rookies as they becomes available. I carry over
the stats of the draft studs from the combine and private workouts from year
to year so that I have a baseline to compare to the current crop. I continuously
distill all of this information into another single color-coded spreadsheet
which ranks the players I have targeted and all the possibilities for trade.
I also analyze the strengths and weaknesses of all the teams in our fantasy
league, including my own. I will update this analysis periodically throughout
the off season in reaction to trades and FA roster changes made by the NFL franchises.
I use this information to decide which team to target and with what possible
players for trade. It is really an all-consuming activity. I'm sure my wife
wishes I would enter a Fantasy Football Addicts Anonymous program.
Be Patient
Again I return to the mantra. Be Patient. These strategies will not pay off
instantly. It takes time to wheel and deal to acquire some marquee players.
It takes a couple of years for your draft picks to mature. It takes a couple
of years to build your franchise to contend this year and next. Don't lose your
patience in the first couple of years, if they are not dominant, and trade away
those players that have not yet matured just for short-term success because
you will be in the same position the following year, but with little the hope
of a stud (or three) emerging from your bench.
Before I sign off, I just have one question for you. Do you feel the love?
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