The Dynasty Continues - Part 2
|
Posted 8/26 by Jason Stratton - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
|
In my first article,
I described what a dynasty league is and introduced some of the challenges involved
when trying to develop a yearly contender and outlined the strategies to employ
for overcoming these challenges. Now I would like to provide specific tactics
for implementing these strategies. Much of the tactics involves trades; trading
for draft picks, players or, more importantly, both. In the end though, all
the tactics are about roster management.
Make fair trade offers. Be generous. Be persistent. Be active. These are well
documented tactics for successfully executing a trade and maintaining a good
relationship with your league mates. I would like to reinforce these characteristics
by repeating them just now and I would like to add a twist. When you are looking
to make a trade use the trade to achieve multiple goals. The obvious goal is
to acquire the players and picks that you desire, but the ulterior motive is
to create space on your roster for other players that you will acquire.
For example, right now it happens to be draft time. During the offseason, I
identified those players that I want to target in the draft, those players with
the most trade value that I am also willing to part with and those players that
I would likely have to cut to make room for the new players. This last group
of players consists of decent players who still have value to someone in your
league. For instance, this year my roster is stacked with RB and while everyone
needs RB in FF, I have identified those teams in the direst need and approached
with an offer for draft picks. The RBs I am willing to part with are Garrison
Hearst, Jamal Lewis and Michael Bennett. (Bennett's injury did throw a monkey
wrench into my plans.) I was targeting 3-4 players in the draft. I realized
that I would not be able to trade Hearst or Bennett at this time because of
their relative situations. So if I managed to trade Lewis, it left 2-3 players
that I would have to cut, if I did not move them or another player. The players
at the tail end of my roster are Rod Gardner and Travis Taylor. So the approach
to take is to package either Gardner or Taylor with Lewis, but target specifically
what you think Lewis is worth. I am definitely making a fair and generous offer
then, but it is not really costing me anything more as I would have to cut the
player anyway. If the negotiations hit a sticking point, I'll throw in the other
WR as well to put it over the top. If this is not enough to get it done, then
I know I've hit the point to walk away. Be fully prepared to walk away and have
contingency plans in place for this eventuality.
Be active in your pursuit of a trade. Start with those teams with the most
obvious match. They might not be interested, but don't give up. Try another
not so obvious match. They might not be interested in what you have to offer,
but have a counter offer. You don't necessarily have to play the individuals
off of each other. In fact, you may end up losing their respect or willingness
to trade in the future. Simply explore the options and pursue those who show
the most interest. Be persistent and don't accept a non-answer. Continue doggedly
until you hear "No", "I'm not interested" or you decide
to walk away because you cannot meet their asking price.
In every trade, get a high draft choice...always. Draft picks are how you are
most likely to acquire the marquee players. If you don't get a draft pick make
sure it's for a player you've been lusting for and make sure your trade partner
knows you're settling for the deal. Always look for a draft pick "to even
up the deal". Remember to be generous and your partner will likely do the
same with the picks as they are an unknown and without value until a pick is
made. If you cannot get a pick for this year, get one from next year. Future
draft picks hold even less value in others' mind because of the greater uncertainty.
Know better. Draft picks are the key to the future and with a future draft pick,
you do not have to juggle your roster or make additional cuts until the pick
is used.
When targeting a player for a trade, always target a stud. Don't look to simply
fill in your roster with trades. That's what free agency is for. When you trade
for a player, it should be a player you believe is a stud and will be a household
name for years to come. How do you accomplish such a trade as your trade partner
will likely believe similarly or at least profess so, in an attempt to increase
the trade value? You have to offer two studs for the one. I'm sure no one who
reads this article wants to trade away two stud players, but go back to my previous
article and read about marquee players. It is not enough to have a stud; you
want the cream of the cream. For example, a couple years ago when Terrell Owens
just started to dominate, you could see that he was on the verge of superstardom.
I approached the Owens owner in our league with Isaac Bruce and Tim Brown. Remember
that this was back when Bruce was still the #1 WR in St. Louis and Brown hadn't
lost a step. The writing on the wall even though they both still had a couple
of stud years left each. Bruce was a top 10 WR the following year and Brown
was in the top 15 until last year's decline. Meanwhile Owens has been a top
3 WR. The 2 stud for 1 worked...and I got a draft pick out of it too.
Please recall in my last article that one of the strategies for success is
to embrace change. That's because the NFL changes so rapidly and you have to
be on your toes to anticipate the change and not react to it. One way to start
ahead of the curve is to "sell high". This is an old adage and a tricky
one too. How do you know that you're not selling too early? For example, there
is an owner in our league that employs this adage and had happened to draft
Randy Moss as a rookie and was very pleasantly surprised with his rookie results.
He decided that Moss could not possibly reach a higher value than after scoring
17 TDs as a rookie. So he traded away Moss for Jerome Bettis and Tony Simmons,
believing Simmons was going to make a similar impact, but probably not as a
rookie. (Did I mention he was a Patriots fan?) While Bettis did perform well
since, Simmons was a total bust and Moss turned out to be one of the marquee
players I keep mentioning. So my corollary to the adage would be to "sell
high, but not too high". This means trading away those players as they
just start to show a decline such as Bruce and Brown in my previous example.
Roster management is generally important in FF, but much more so in a dynasty
league. Acquiring draft picks and trading players are important aspects of managing
your roster, but there is more to it than simply acquiring those players that
you want. Every player on your roster must serve a purpose. Having a player
simply because you need insurance in case a player gets hurt is not sufficient
reason to take up space on your roster. The backup players must be players that
you honestly believe have the potential to be a marquee player and all of your
backup players will be in various stages of development. One of them should
be an adequate bye week or injury fill-in. It may not be the best possible option
for that particular week, but you sometimes have to make do with what you have
while always having an eye on the long term.
When Peter Warrick entered the NFL draft, he was the highest rated player by
Pro Football Weekly since I started tracking it (or since for that matter).
I bought into the hype big time. Despite the lack of size and speed, he was
the player I targeted in that particular draft. (I did draft other players that
did pan out, thankfully.) We all know the stories of how long it takes for WR
to mature in the NFL. So I waited and he sat at the tail end of my roster. I
had to play him occasionally and he performed barely adequately in those situations.
Even though there were better immediate options, I still believed he was going
to be a huge impact player. Well, last year I stopped believing even though
he started showing signs of success. Now I believe that at best, he will be
a Wayne Chrebet type player. No disrespect intended to Chrebet, who is a very
successful possession WR in the NFL. No small feat, but neither one will be
Moss, Owens or Harrison. Sometimes I have to learn the hard way, but it brings
up another corollary to acquiring the marquee players, specific to WR. Never
keep a #2 WR on your roster, unless you believe he will become the stud #1 WR
in a season or two. Tory Holt is a good example of this. Holt was the #2 WR
behind Bruce and quickly became the #1 WR, but while he's a stud, he's a borderline
marquee player and has shown us everything he has. So I would have been looking
to move him for a while now, if I had him. A couple of #2 WR to keep your eye
on are Koren Robinson and Donte Stallworth. I'm not going out on a limb here
and neither should be a surprise to you, but they are good examples of #2 WR
who I would keep on my roster, while Warrick is one I would not.
Another aspect of roster management I feel the need to address is handcuffing.
Never handcuff two players, unless you believe both players are stud quality.
The handcuffed player just takes precious space on your roster. The reasons
why handcuffing occurs are twofold, injury insurance and because you really
desire the backup. Handcuffing for injury insurance is a fallacy of sorts. You
do not need a player's NFL backup in order to insure a FF backup in the event
of an injury. For example, suppose you have Jeff Garcia as your starting QB
and this year you're concerned about his back issues. Should you be looking
to add Rattay to your roster? Unless Garcia misses significant time and Rattay
doesn't miss a beat (This is a big if), Rattay is just dead weight, taking up
a valuable roster spot. You likely already have another QB on your roster as
a bye week fill-in, who is a starter on an NFL team. Why shouldn't your 3rd
QB also be a starter on a NFL team? This would not be dead weight. It might
even be an occasional starter. Even if you're in a 12 team league, you should
be able to have a third starter, if you want as not everyone in your league
will. If the backup is the player is the one you really want, don't have the
starter on your roster. Now suppose your 2nd QB is Mark Brunell. Then handcuffing
Byron Leftwich makes perfect sense as he could turn out to be the marquee player
you are continuously seeking. But it is obvious that Brunell is on the decline.
So if he is not on your active roster frequently, look to move him to make space
for up and coming talent and just hang on to Leftwich, being patient for him
to get his chance to shine.
Another example in which I learned the hard way, I had Garrison Hearst on my
roster the year the Niners drafted Barlow. I have since kept both on my roster,
but have not had the opportunity to play either because of the number of carries
they split. I believe Barlow is a stud, if given the opportunity, while Hearst
was a borderline stud prior to splitting time with Barlow. I've been using two
spaces on my roster for a couple of years, when I only was really interested
in Barlow. Now that I've come to my senses, I'm looking at cutting Hearst because
I cannot draw much interest in a trade for him. Had I realized what I wanted
to do sooner, I might have been able to trade Hearst while he still had some
value
Taylor, Gardner and Hearst this year and Warrick last year are examples of
trimming the dead weight off your roster. This is equally as important as acquiring
the right players. It is how you make room for the developing players. The trick
is identifying which players will never be the marquee player you want early
enough that they provide some trade value. Out of all these players Gardner
as the best trade value as there are many FF owners out there who believe he
is going to be a stud, but I believe he's going to be a good second tier player
at best and so now is the time to sell high, but not too high.
Even though your roster should be filled as much as possible with stud hopefuls,
as part of your in-season roster management you will need to have room at the
tail end of your roster for week to week changes, bye week K or D fill-ins or
acquiring the surprise player that comes along. I advocate only carrying one
defense and one kicker. In our league, we count yards allowed and points against
negatively for D scoring. This makes the D position just as valuable as QB and
RB, but aside from the top 8 or so, it is so difficult to predict the top FF
Ds year to year between free agency, coaching changes and injuries that it does
not make sense to keep more than one sure stud D. In our league, not playing
defense in a particular week results in an automatic loss. This makes it necessary
to leave a roster spot or two as room to pick up a D or K for the bye week.
Sometimes a player that explodes out of nowhere in the middle of a season, like
Terrell Davis did his rookie season. You want these tail roster spots available
for such eventualities.
Then when all of the bye weeks are over and the NFL rosters have sorted out
such that you know what will happen when a starter goes down, what do you do
with the roster spot then? Pick up a fill-in player? No! During the last couple
of weeks that you are allowed to make FA acquisitions, it is time to start looking
at next year. Look at players that are at the end of their contract and are
likely to change teams like Stacey Mack and Olandis Gary last year. It doesn't
always work as Gary is still a backup, but you could end up with an extra starter
like Mack without using a draft pick. (Going back to the marquee strategy though,
Mack does not fit the bill, but he could be trade bait in acquiring draft picks.)
Other players to look at are rookie WR that have not yet emerged, but have the
potential to do so the following season like Ashley Lelie, who could border
on studliness as early as this season. This is also the time to identify those
teams who could use help in the post-season or just getting there. You can "help
them out" with a player or two, but only accept draft picks in return.
This will put you in good shape for the following draft and you can pick up
a couple of players like those I just mentioned. It's almost like doubling your
draft picks.
I hope these tactics help you to implement the strategies I described in my
previous article and provide you with success year after year...as long as you're
not in my league.
|