A little known sixth round pick from Georgia burst onto the football world in 1995, and Terrell Davis soon became the most dominant player in the sport. Antowain Smith was a first round pick in 1997, but didn’t see much success until switching teams for his fifth year. Fred Taylor scored seventeen touchdowns his rookie season, but hasn’t been the fantasy star we all expected. Is there a certain year in the league when runningbacks (RB) start to become stars, and separate themselves from the pack? Five runningbacks broke out last season, and twenty-nine have over the past five years. Of those five, two were in their fifth years (Smith and Priest Holmes), one a third year back (Ricky Williams) and two had never started an NFL game before (Ladainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander). Runningback is the premier position in fantasy football, and here’s a look at when RBs “break out.” The analysis is as follows:
I looked at all RBs the past five seasons that scored 200 or more fantasy points (FP) in a season, with a scoring system of one point for every ten yards rushing or receiving, and six points for any rushing or receiving touchdown. Thirty-two different RBs combined to post 52 seasons of 200 points or more. A breakout season was defined as the first time they either a) scored 200 or more points the past five years, or b) finished in the top twelve before 1998. Marshall Faulk scored over 200 points each of the past five seasons, Curtis Martin four times, and Ricky Watters three times. Here’s the list of the backs:
In the following chart, Rank is the rank among RBs the player was that Year, the third column. Break is the season they first broke the 200 point barrier, or in the case of the players before 1998, broke the top twelve. RBB is the Rank of the player the season before the break, RDB is the Rank of the player during the break, and RAB is the Rank of the player after the break.
|
Year |
Breakout |
Season |
Round Drafted |
RDB |
RAB |
Comment |
||
|
1 |
Barry Sanders |
1997 |
1989 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
1 |
Rookie |
|
10 |
Barry Sanders |
1998 |
1989 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
6 |
Corey Dillon |
2001 |
1997 |
1st |
2 |
8 |
17 |
Rookie |
|
17 |
Corey Dillon |
2000 |
1997 |
1st |
2 |
8 |
17 |
|
|
5 |
Curtis Martin |
2001 |
1995 |
1st |
3 |
2 |
4 |
Rookie |
|
8 |
Curtis Martin |
2000 |
1995 |
1st |
3 |
2 |
4 |
|
|
8 |
Curtis Martin |
1998 |
1995 |
1st |
3 |
2 |
4 |
|
|
8 |
Curtis Martin |
1999 |
1995 |
1st |
3 |
2 |
4 |
|
|
3 |
Eddie George |
2000 |
1996 |
1st |
1 |
8 |
12 |
Rookie |
|
3 |
Eddie George |
1999 |
1996 |
1st |
1 |
8 |
12 |
|
|
2 |
Edgerrin James |
2000 |
1999 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
2 |
Rookie |
|
1 |
Edgerrin James |
1999 |
1999 |
1st |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
6 |
Emmitt Smith |
1998 |
1990 |
1st |
1 |
7 |
3 |
Rookie |
|
5 |
Emmitt Smith |
1999 |
1990 |
1st |
1 |
7 |
3 |
|
|
4 |
Fred Taylor |
1998 |
1998 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
28 |
Injury to |
|
6 |
Fred Taylor |
2000 |
1998 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
28 |
James Stewart |
|
16 |
Jamal Lewis |
2000 |
2000 |
1st |
1 |
16 |
/ |
Rookie |
|
4 |
Jerome Bettis |
1997 |
1993 |
1st |
1 |
2 |
13 |
Rookie |
|
6 |
Karim Abdul-Jabbar |
1997 |
1996 |
1st |
3 |
9 |
6 |
Rookie |
|
7 |
Ladainian Tomlinson |
2001 |
2001 |
1st |
1 |
7 |
? |
Rookie |
|
1 |
Marshall Faulk |
2000 |
1994 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
6 |
Rookie |
|
1 |
Marshall Faulk |
2001 |
1994 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
2 |
Marshall Faulk |
1999 |
1994 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
3 |
Marshall Faulk |
1998 |
1994 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
7 |
Marshall Faulk |
1997 |
1994 |
1st |
1 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
4 |
Mike Anderson |
2000 |
2000 |
1st |
6 |
4 |
34 |
3rd string |
|
9 |
Ricky Watters |
2000 |
1992 |
1st |
2 |
8 |
4 |
Rookie |
|
7 |
Ricky Watters |
1998 |
1992 |
1st |
2 |
8 |
4 |
|
|
9 |
Ricky Watters |
1999 |
1992 |
1st |
2 |
8 |
4 |
|
|
9 |
Robert Edwards |
1998 |
1998 |
1st |
1 |
9 |
/ |
Rookie |
|
1 |
Terrell Davis |
1998 |
1995 |
1st |
6 |
12 |
2 |
Rookie |
|
2 |
Terrell Davis |
1997 |
1995 |
1st |
6 |
12 |
2 |
|
|
4 |
Shaun Alexander |
2001 |
2001 |
2nd |
1 |
4 |
? |
Watters injury |
|
3 |
Ahman Green |
2001 |
2000 |
3rd |
3 |
5 |
3 |
1st year |
|
5 |
Ahman Green |
2000 |
2000 |
3rd |
3 |
5 |
3 |
With Packers |
|
2 |
Jamal Anderson |
1998 |
1996 |
3rd |
7 |
10 |
10 |
1st
yr. starting |
|
5 |
Napoleon Kaufman |
1997 |
1997 |
3rd |
1 |
5 |
25 |
Became top back, career yr. |
|
8 |
Ricky Williams |
2001 |
2001 |
3rd |
1 |
8 |
? |
Stayed Healthy |
|
3 |
Dorsey Levens |
1997 |
1997 |
4th |
5 |
3 |
50 |
1st year |
|
6 |
Dorsey Levens |
1999 |
1997 |
4th |
5 |
3 |
50 |
starting |
|
4 |
Stephen Davis |
1999 |
1999 |
4th |
4 |
4 |
12 |
1st year |
|
12 |
Stephen Davis |
2000 |
1999 |
4th |
4 |
4 |
12 |
starting |
|
13 |
Tiki Barber |
2000 |
2000 |
4th |
2 |
13 |
14 |
Given more of the workload |
|
15 |
Warrick Dunn |
2000 |
2000 |
4th |
1 |
15 |
23 |
Alstott injury |
|
9 |
Antowain Smith |
2001 |
2001 |
5th |
1 |
9 |
? |
1st year w/ NE |
|
14 |
James Stewart |
2000 |
1999 |
5th |
1 |
12 |
14 |
Fred Taylor inj. |
|
2 |
Priest Holmes |
2001 |
2001 |
5th |
Not drafted |
2 |
? |
1st year w/ KC |
|
7 |
Robert Smith |
2000 |
1997 |
5th |
1 |
11 |
12 |
Played 14 gms |
|
10 |
Charlie Garner |
2000 |
1999 |
6th |
2 |
7 |
10 |
1st year with SF |
|
7 |
Charlie Garner |
1999 |
1999 |
6th |
2 |
7 |
10 |
|
|
5 |
Garrison Hearst |
1998 |
1998 |
6th |
1 |
6 |
/ |
SF – 30 pts/gm |
|
11 |
Lamar Smith |
2000 |
2000 |
7th |
3 |
11 |
15 |
1st year w/ Mia |
While it’s safe to say rookies have as good as shot as veterans, who truly is primed to be the next big thing at RB? Let’s take a look at the top RBs who have yet to score 200 fantasy points in a season.
The Rookies
William Green
Green appears to be in position to get the most amounts of carries of all the rookies, and that’s something that weighs heavily in his favor. Additionally, he was the top back chosen in the draft and most signs point to him being the top rookie fantasy back this year. Green’s in an interesting fantasy position, because if he is a quality NFL back, he’ll post great stats and have great value. He’ll get almost all the carries, and the Browns offense will be average at worst. However, if he isn’t very good, the offense will be poor, the offensive line will look bad, and he’ll likely lose a lot of touches to Jackson and/or White. While the Browns offensive line isn’t very good, and the passing game leaves something to be desired, if William Green is a good RB he’ll be a very good fantasy option. The smart money is on the young man with a great attitude to be a fantasy star.
T.J. Duckett
Vladimir Guerrero. Marshall Faulk. Kevin Garnett. Speed and power dominate pro sports, and TJ Duckett may combine them as well as any RB since Bo Jackson. Duckett tires easily though, and doesn’t have very natural RB instincts. Warrick Dunn is there, and will certainly steal touches from Duckett. A conservative prediction would be for Duckett to be a second year breakout, because he will benefit more than any other RB on that list from a year of NFL experience (Duckett didn’t play RB until 1999). While many point to Dunn and dismiss Duckett for this season, remember this: The Falcons signed Dunn, AND THEN drafted Duckett - not the other way around. Duckett’s potential is higher than any other rookie back, and while he probably won’t break out until next year, he’ll still likely out-perform his draft position this year.
DeShaun Foster
It’s important to remember that being a stud in college has never been confused with being a stud in the NFL. DeShaun Foster rushed 31 times for 301 yards and four touchdowns against Washington, proving that he was one of the best runners in the nation. Foster is also going to a team with an underrated offensive line, and has a couple of decent receivers to help spread the field for him. Foster instantly becomes the most gifted runner the franchise has ever had, and is a very good pass catcher as well. However, there are too many things going against Foster to expect a breakout this season. He does not appear to be very NFL ready - he is fumble prone, injury prone, and worst of all, has been rumored to play at times without much heart or desire. He is not mature enough to be a good pro just yet, and has to solve his off the field problems, as well as fix his upright running style (which can lead to injuries), if he ever wants to be a star.
The Veterans
Travis Henry
Henry’s rookie season wasn’t very good, but he still rushed for over 700 yards and a handful of scores. An improved offensive line and the addition of Drew Bledsoe may do wonders for Henry. As always with RBs, his fantasy value will be a function of his touches. If the Bills run Henry 300 times this year, Henry will be a steal in most fantasy drafts. Richard Huntley may cut into his carries or even steal his time, so Henry’s job security is tenuous right now. If the Bills show a commitment to him in training camp and preseason, I think his natural talent will make him a solid fantasy back for your team.
James Allen
The fantasy world doesn’t like Allen very much, because he doesn’t score touchdowns. While he isn’t Priest Holmes, Allen is the best pass catching back on the Texans, and an average runner. Allen’s best rushing game is a microcosm of his career: He ran for 122 yards in an impressive performance against the Jets, but his three fumbles cost his team the game. Allen has the talent to be effective, and Carr will likely throw a lot of short passes to the RB. In 1999, Terry Kirby caught over 500 yards from rookie QB Tim Couch on the expansion Browns. RBs on expansion teams that have problems scoring touchdowns don’t come highly recommended, but several RBs have done very well their first year on a new team.
Tyrone Wheatley
Right now, it’s anyone’s guess as to who Callahan decides will be his main back. Most likely, he’ll use the committee that Oakland has used for a couple of seasons. Wheatley is a big, bruising back who is a former first round pick. He didn’t play much last year, and that should make him very fresh for this season. If Garner goes down Wheatley becomes at worst a great RB2, and could very likely put up top 10 numbers. Remember, Wheatley averaged 1167 total yards and 10.5 TDs in 1999 and 2000 as part of a committee. It still remains to be seen how effective Wheatley will be as a 30 year old RB coming off an injury-plagued season.
Anthony Thomas
Anthony Thomas is the best bet to be the next big thing at RB. A punishing runner, Thomas plays in a system tailor-made for his talents. Defenses saw Thomas explode in the ten games he was the starting RB, rushing for 106 yds/game. Defenses now have a year of film to study and prepare for the talented sophomore, but as long as both he and his offensively line remain healthy, Thomas will be a great fantasy player.
Michael Bennett
Bennett had a disappointing season last year; especially after what many thought was an impressive preseason. His best attributes are his blazing speed and his, uh, blazing speed; too often last year Bennett looked like a track star in a running back’s body. Still, there are reasons to be excited about Bennett this season. The entire Vikings team gets a pass last year, as they had to battle both injuries and trying to play with the death of their teammate on their minds. Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Daunte Culpepper had poor seasons, by their lofty standards. This year Bennett’s got a better offensive line, and a healthy Daunte Culpepper will ensure that Bennett will not be facing eight man fronts. His 100 yard game against division rival GB late in the season is another positive sign. Like Duckett, Bennett was raw coming out of college and the year of development could do wonders for him.
Ron Dayne
I promise this is the last of the Wolverines and Badgers. The former Big Ten star is on this list solely because he is a former first round pick. If Barber gets hurt, we’ll get our best chance to see if Dayne can handle being an every down back. As of right now, he’s an overweight, underwhelming college star on a weak offensive team with a declining offensive line. He also doesn’t catch the ball, or do well in goal-line situations. Other than that, I’m very high on him this year.
Duce Staley
While Staley didn’t impress many observers last year, consider this: In weeks 8-15 (the only weeks he got double digit carries) he was the 7th best back in FF, totaling over 1000 yards. Staley no longer has Buckhalter to steal carries, and he is a tremendous receiver. A year removed from surgery, Staley does have a lot of things going his way: the RB job is his and his alone, he can work on football and not rehab this offseason, he should be more confident, and he has had past success in this offense. Staley should get most of the touches of all the backs on the Eagles, and he should be a very good producer of total yards. Unfortunately, should can easily become won’t when you’re discussing a back who hasn’t ever rushed for 6 TDs and hasn’t put together a good season in a few years.
Deuce McCallister
Fred Taylor, arrivaderci! Deuce McCallister is the new fantasy enigma and he appears to be a Taylor clone. While I like to give all NFL players a clean slate to prove themselves, all we know about Deuce is how he did in college: Very effective when healthy. That’s all you need to know about his injury problems in the past. Fortunately for Deuce, they are in the past, and he’s got everything a RB could want: A good QB, a great WR, and no competitors for his job. Deuce has phenomenal hands for a RB, and should be on the field constantly for the Saints. McCallister fits the profile of the backs on the list: his first year starting. Buyer beware: He does have an injury-plagued past, no one knows if he can handle the grind of being an every down RB, the Saints offensive line appears weaker this season, and the team is very iffy from a fantasy perspective after their collapse to end last season. Still, the injury problems are a little overrated, and there’s no doubt he has the talent to shine in the NFL. The year off last year may help keep him fresh.
Michael Pittman
Pittman is good all purpose back, entering his first season with a new team. In nearly every other situation, this would be great news for those desperate for another productive RB. With Jon Gruden there in Tampa Bay, there are a lot of things holding Pittman back. Gruden loves to run the ball with everyone, to help keep all his backs fresh. Ten RBs the past three years on Gruden teams have rushed over 40 times. Alstott will certainy get his carries, and Pittman isn’t good enough to have Gruden abandon the RBBC approach. Injuries could certainly help him steal all the carries, but right now it’s hard to expect much more than very good production with limited touches. He still should lead the team in touches, but that doesn’t mean nearly as much as it does on other teams.
Thomas Jones
Thomas Jones doesn’t fit the profile of the RBs on this list. Half of them were first year guys, and Jones has already disappointed for a pair of seasons. Nearly all the other backs succeeded in their first year as the main guy. Meanwhile, Jones had two seasons to supplant Michael Pittman in Arizona, and never did. Jones supporters will correctly point to the rib problems that he’s since fixed, as well as the blossoming Cardinal offense. Shipp and Scobey may sound like a law firm, but they’re more likely to steal carries from Jones than win a case. There’s not much reason to think Thomas Jones is going to buck the odds and be the extremely rare case of a guy who has been on a team for years, given a chance to be the starter for years, and suddenly become a star. Everyone knows anything in the NFL is possible, but until Jones does something in the NFL he’ll never be remembered as anything more than another first round RB bust.