• Hines Ward has nearly twice as many fantasy points as Plaxico Burress
• Torry Holt has more than twice as many fantasy points as Isaac Bruce
• Anquain Boldin is ahead of Terrell Owens in WR rankings
• Jon Kitna is in the top ten
• Donovan McNabb is ranked eighteenth
• Marc Bulger has more than twice as many INTs as Daunte Culpepper
• Jake Delhomme is ranked ahead of Drew Bledsoe
• The Williams? Moe? Top ten. Ricky? Not.
• Corey Dillon - 54th ; Rudi Johnson - 20th
• One Faulk in the top thirty-six, and it isn't Marshall
• Marvin Harrison has missed more games than Priest Holmes and Fred Taylor combined
• Santana Moss has over eighty more points than Marshall Faulk
• Three Eagles RBs have more fantasy points than Koren Robinson

Have we learned our mistakes? Will we finally have the perfect draft next year? Well, we're still light years away from that. But it's possible that we can identify some trends based on the early results on the 2003 season. Specifically,

Which position is most predictable?

I poured the preseason predictions for every QB, RB and WR in the NFL, along with how they are doing this year, into an excel file. I decided to compare projected fantasy points with current fantasy points multiplied by 1.6 (since all teams have played ten games, now I could compare current points based on a season of the same length as the projected points). Here's how the top ten look for each position:

• Avg. Proj FP is the average projected fantasy points of the top ten players at the position.
• Avg. Abs. Diff is the difference between the pre-season projected FPs to the regular season projected (multiplied by 1.6) FPs-with all differences being considered positive.
• Accuracy is simple how far off the average projection was, divided by the average projected FP total. This allows us to compare across positions.

In the top ten the spread is pretty close. RBs have the highest accuracy, with only Marshall Faulk being a huge bust. None of the other RBs are prorated to finish with a difference of 100 FPs, (although Edge is close) while Faulk is currently 211 FPs below his expected production. Let's look at the top twenty at each position:

According to that, the quarterback projections were the most dead on. Running back certainly gets hazy as you move down the list. Let's look at the top twelve QBs, the top twenty-four RBs, and the top thirty-six WRs:

Quarterbacks are easier to project, because they touch the ball so much. Even the bad QBs still produce decent fantasy stats. How about the all important question of who to take in your first two rounds? If you don't remember, the top twenty four picks (in twelve team leagues) went something like this: nineteen RBs, two QBs (once Vick was gone), and three WRs (the big three).

So what was the right move? Certainly taking Culpepper paid off, but Donovan McNabb killed some teams. Moss was the best choice and the most value at wide receiver, but all have played well. RB? It's mostly a crapshoot. Jamal Lewis (prorated 287 points) was ranked twelfth; Corey Dillon (prorated 64 points) was thirteenth. Ahman Green, or Edge? Stephen Davis or William Green? Many debated these decisions all summer, with no clear cut answer. In the end, we see that luck plays an enormous role in this game of ours. Choose the right RB, and you're in the playoffs-slip up, and your season is over.

Of course, you can't ignore the running backs all together-just ONE "sleeper" RB panned out. Moe Williams is having a monster season, and was had in the late rounds. It would be great if you could draft the talented WR, and then trade him for the stud back once the season starts. However, we've all tried to trade for a big time runner, and it's next to impossible. So what's the correct way to make your fantasy draft a winner next time?

Here's a list of the top twenty preseason projected RBs, ranked by how many more FPs they scored than they were projected to score. Let's see if we can notice any trends:

Rank is pre-season rank
PROJ is preseason, projected FPs
PROR is their current prorated FP total
DIFF is the difference between the two columns

Priest Holmes and Faulk were viewed as nearly interchangeable in the summer: thirty years old, explosive, great talents, great offense, strong runners and receivers. Of course, they're on opposite ends right now. How about Jamal Lewis and Corey Dillon? Both were supposed to carry teams with weak offenses, and receive a lot of carries. Right now the players on the bottom looks like has beens (Faulk, James) and never wases (Willie Green, Amos Zereoue). Still, some things are without explanation-no one thought Clinton Portis and Ricky Williams would struggle like they have. Shaun Alexander seems consistent so far-which means he'll probably mess things up next year.

There's no answer to the perfect draft. Use any system you like, and you're still basing your draft on how you predict the players will do. That's not an easy job in November, much less July or August. Marshall Faulk could have easily stayed healthy and had a great year, but he didn't. When you make a prediction (or a draft pick), you're just making an educated guess, with a wide range of possible outcomes. Was Corey Dillon a bad pick? His replacement has played very well, and it was certainly a logical assumption to foresee a big year out of Dillon. There's no one attribute about the top RBs that stick out from the bottom RBs on that list-some played well last year, some have taken a pounding over the years, some have great QBs, while others have just the opposite. If this was easy, everyone wouldn't make mistakes. After we have this season in the books, we'll certainly revisit the art of making good projections. For now, think back to how some of your gut feelings turned out-and see if you can pick up on a thing or two.