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Goose Chase - Week 13

Scanning through the fantasy leaders through eleven weeks, here are some thoughts that come to mind:

QB Matt Hasselbeck is currently the number two-ranked QB, just a shade behind Peyton Manning. Now this isn't a huge surprise-recall that Hasselbeck was the top quarterback the last six weeks of 2002. However, does that mean what he's doing is simply an extension of what happened last year? Not exactly. Here are his numbers from the last six games of 2002, along with his stats for the first eleven weeks of 2003. Both are pro-rated for sixteen games.

  • 2002: 5,499 yards, 32 TDs, 19 INTs; 397 rushing, 3 TDs; 27.5 FP/G
  • 2003: 3,721 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs; 193 rushing, 3 TDs; 20.1 FP/G

Here are his current rankings among NFL QBs:

  • Completions: 11th
  • Attempts: 11th
  • Completion %: 12th
  • Yards: 7th
  • Yards per Attempt: 5th
  • Touchdowns: T-3rd
  • Touchdowns per Attempt: 5th
  • Interceptions: T-11th
  • QB Rating: 6th

It would have been unrealistic to expect Hasselbeck to continue with his torrid pace last December, but he has been a totally different QB. Perhaps the biggest difference? He's averaging over ten less attempts per game. Last December, Hasselbeck had games with 55, 53 and 45 passing attempts. He hasn't approached that in any game yet this season. The Seahawks were very pass happy at the end of 2002, and Hasselbeck was a strong "sleeper" this summer. However, Koren Robinson has disappointed, and he has thrown for over 250 yards just three times this season. Can he repeat in 2003 with a strong finish? He certainly looked like the 2002 version this past weekend against a good defensive team, and Seattle is in the thick of a playoff race. The remaining schedule isn't particularly difficult, and I'd consider Hasselbeck to be a top quarterback the rest of the season-no matter how he does it. When the games start meaning more, it's certainly possible that Holmgren will rely more on the passing game, which would mean a nice boost for Hasselbeck's numbers.


What do you think of this RB?

220 carries, 919 yards, 4 TDs; 38 receptions, 291 yards, 1 TD

Certainly those are the numbers of a good RB, but not a great one. His 4.2 yards per carry is above average, but still not excellent. Who is it? Fred Taylor. It's very rare to see a player totally flip-flop his career like Taylor. He used to be dynamic when healthy-but rarely healthy. Now he's always healthy-but rarely dynamic. He hasn't missed a game in two years, but we haven't seen the great production a healthy Taylor was expected to give us. Against the worst run D in the league last Sunday, Taylor needed thirty-two carries to get 119 rushing yards. What's even more disappointing is his lack of touchdowns. In his rookie year, Taylor didn't ONCE carry the ball ten times and fail to score a touchdown in the same game. The following season, those two events happened just once. In 2000, Taylor had six such instances of ten carries and no touchdowns. That's seven times in three years. Last year? Seven times. This season? Seven more times, Taylor has failed to reach the end zone in a game he carried the rock at least ten times. (Not including a nine-carry game without a score).

Taylor used to be an explosive runner with a nose for the goal-line. Now he looks to be just another guy, at a position loaded with explosive players.

What's the explanation? The Jaguars offense has certainly deteriorated, and some RBs simply peak earlier than others. None of us are expecting him to rush for 200 yards and score four times in a game anymore, but he's had just two big games all season. Even in his best game of the year, he finished just sixth that week among RBs. Taylor has moved from being the boom/bust at the position, to becoming a dependable RB2. Taylor has a career playoff average of over 120 rushing yards per game, but right now he is a shell of his former self.


Keenan McCardell has never finished in the top fifteen. Entering this season, his career high in receiving yards was 1,207, and he'd never reached the end-zone more than six times in a season. Last year, his inaugural season with the Buccaneers, was his worst season since before the Jacksonville Jaguars were in the league. How then, do we explain McCardell currently ranked seventh among wide outs, with seven scores and on pace for over 1,200 yards? It's not every day that thirty-three year old wide outs follow up their worst year with a career year-but that's exactly what's happening in Tampa Bay.

There's not a ton of difference between his yardage production in Jacksonville, and this season in Tampa Bay. In his last two years as a Jaguar, McCardell averaged 72 yards per game. This season? He's catching balls for just under 76 yards per game. The big difference is the red zone production: He's currently averaging twice as many touchdowns per game this year, as he did from 1996-2001.

So what gives? And what will happen the rest of the season? McCardell has two touchdowns of the 70+ yard variety, as well as two from thirty yards or more. He caught a six yard score in week two, a fifteen yarder against the Colts two months ago, and a three yard score against the Packers in week 11. Certainly, one goal-line score in the past ten weeks doesn't make me think he's just suddenly developed a nose for the end zone. All other things being equal, I'd say McCardell has been more lucky than good, and he'll be nothing more than a WR2 at best the rest of the season.

However, the world is not static, and the departure of Keyshawn Johnson has changed things. McCardell is a good, but not great receiver-will he take advantage of the added looks, or will he fail to produce as the defensive focus shifts to him? He's always had Jimmy Smith or Keyshawn Johnson across from him, until last week. He caught nine balls for 83 yards on thirteen targets, certainly not a disappointing night. If you have McCardell, you're not likely to have someone better on your bench. I feel his stock has never been higher, and he's simply not good enough to star in this offense. Even if you think the Bucs will do well, remember they won the Super Bowl in McCardell's worst season. I'd say he'll average about seventy yards per game the rest of the way, and consider yourself lucky if he gets more than two TDs.

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