Scanning through the fantasy leaders through eleven weeks, here are some thoughts
that come to mind:
QB Matt Hasselbeck is currently the number two-ranked QB, just a shade behind
Peyton Manning. Now this isn't a huge surprise-recall that Hasselbeck was the
top quarterback the last six weeks of 2002. However, does that mean what he's
doing is simply an extension of what happened last year? Not exactly. Here are
his numbers from the last six games of 2002, along with his stats for the first
eleven weeks of 2003. Both are pro-rated for sixteen games.
- 2002: 5,499 yards, 32 TDs, 19 INTs; 397 rushing, 3 TDs; 27.5 FP/G
- 2003: 3,721 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs; 193 rushing, 3 TDs; 20.1 FP/G
Here are his current rankings among NFL QBs:
- Completions: 11th
- Attempts: 11th
- Completion %: 12th
- Yards: 7th
- Yards per Attempt: 5th
- Touchdowns: T-3rd
- Touchdowns per Attempt: 5th
- Interceptions: T-11th
- QB Rating: 6th
It would have been unrealistic to expect Hasselbeck to continue with his torrid
pace last December, but he has been a totally different QB. Perhaps the biggest
difference? He's averaging over ten less attempts per game. Last December, Hasselbeck
had games with 55, 53 and 45 passing attempts. He hasn't approached that in
any game yet this season. The Seahawks were very pass happy at the end of 2002,
and Hasselbeck was a strong "sleeper" this summer. However, Koren
Robinson has disappointed, and he has thrown for over 250 yards just three times
this season. Can he repeat in 2003 with a strong finish? He certainly looked
like the 2002 version this past weekend against a good defensive team, and Seattle
is in the thick of a playoff race. The remaining schedule isn't particularly
difficult, and I'd consider Hasselbeck to be a top quarterback the rest of the
season-no matter how he does it. When the games start meaning more, it's certainly
possible that Holmgren will rely more on the passing game, which would mean
a nice boost for Hasselbeck's numbers.
What do you think of this RB?
220 carries, 919 yards, 4 TDs; 38 receptions, 291 yards, 1 TD
Certainly those are the numbers of a good RB, but not a great one. His 4.2
yards per carry is above average, but still not excellent. Who is it? Fred Taylor.
It's very rare to see a player totally flip-flop his career like Taylor. He
used to be dynamic when healthy-but rarely healthy. Now he's always healthy-but
rarely dynamic. He hasn't missed a game in two years, but we haven't seen the
great production a healthy Taylor was expected to give us. Against the worst
run D in the league last Sunday, Taylor needed thirty-two carries to get 119
rushing yards. What's even more disappointing is his lack of touchdowns. In
his rookie year, Taylor didn't ONCE carry the ball ten times and fail to score
a touchdown in the same game. The following season, those two events happened
just once. In 2000, Taylor had six such instances of ten carries and no touchdowns.
That's seven times in three years. Last year? Seven times. This season? Seven
more times, Taylor has failed to reach the end zone in a game he carried the
rock at least ten times. (Not including a nine-carry game without a score).
Taylor used to be an explosive runner with a nose for the goal-line. Now he
looks to be just another guy, at a position loaded with explosive players.
What's the explanation? The Jaguars offense has certainly deteriorated, and
some RBs simply peak earlier than others. None of us are expecting him to rush
for 200 yards and score four times in a game anymore, but he's had just two
big games all season. Even in his best game of the year, he finished just sixth
that week among RBs. Taylor has moved from being the boom/bust at the position,
to becoming a dependable RB2. Taylor has a career playoff average of over 120
rushing yards per game, but right now he is a shell of his former self.
Keenan McCardell has never finished in the top fifteen. Entering this season,
his career high in receiving yards was 1,207, and he'd never reached the end-zone
more than six times in a season. Last year, his inaugural season with the Buccaneers,
was his worst season since before the Jacksonville Jaguars were in the league.
How then, do we explain McCardell currently ranked seventh among wide outs,
with seven scores and on pace for over 1,200 yards? It's not every day that
thirty-three year old wide outs follow up their worst year with a career year-but
that's exactly what's happening in Tampa Bay.
There's not a ton of difference between his yardage production in Jacksonville,
and this season in Tampa Bay. In his last two years as a Jaguar, McCardell averaged
72 yards per game. This season? He's catching balls for just under 76 yards
per game. The big difference is the red zone production: He's currently averaging
twice as many touchdowns per game this year, as he did from 1996-2001.
So what gives? And what will happen the rest of the season? McCardell has two
touchdowns of the 70+ yard variety, as well as two from thirty yards or more.
He caught a six yard score in week two, a fifteen yarder against the Colts two
months ago, and a three yard score against the Packers in week 11. Certainly,
one goal-line score in the past ten weeks doesn't make me think he's just suddenly
developed a nose for the end zone. All other things being equal, I'd say McCardell
has been more lucky than good, and he'll be nothing more than a WR2 at best
the rest of the season.
However, the world is not static, and the departure of Keyshawn Johnson has
changed things. McCardell is a good, but not great receiver-will he take advantage
of the added looks, or will he fail to produce as the defensive focus shifts
to him? He's always had Jimmy Smith or Keyshawn Johnson across from him, until
last week. He caught nine balls for 83 yards on thirteen targets, certainly
not a disappointing night. If you have McCardell, you're not likely to have
someone better on your bench. I feel his stock has never been higher, and he's
simply not good enough to star in this offense. Even if you think the Bucs will
do well, remember they won the Super Bowl in McCardell's worst season. I'd say
he'll average about seventy yards per game the rest of the way, and consider
yourself lucky if he gets more than two TDs.
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