Goose Chase

We’re three quarters of the way into the regular season, and most fantasy leagues are winding down. This week or next will begin the fantasy playoffs for many leagues, and starting the right players becomes more critical than ever. So who really ARE the best players? We’re going to look at some different stats, ones you might not be used to seeing, for each of the big positions. Without further adieu…

At quarterback, many players are capable of producing big weeks. Usually all you need are a decent amount of attempts against a not so decent defense, to have a top ten week. But who are the most effective quarterbacks? What quarterbacks garner the most fantasy points via the least amount of passes? Isn’t it more impressive when a quarterback can throw for 25 fantasy points on twenty attempts, as opposed to forty? Here’s a list of all the qualified* signal callers, ranked by fantasy points per pass attempt:

*Qualified here, as in the NFL, means a QB must throw a minimum of 14 passes per team game, or in this case 168 passes.

#	Quarterback	NFL	Pts	Pts/Att
4	McNair,Steve	TEN	241.2	0.74
3	Culpepper,Daunte	MIN	244.8	0.74
27	Pennington,Chad	NYJ	113.6	0.66
2	Hasselbeck,Matt	SEA	249.1	0.65
23	Plummer,Jake	DEN	140.2	0.64
1	Manning,Peyton	IND	252.4	0.57
7	Green,Trent	KC	224.9	0.58
6	Bulger,Marc	STL	226.4	0.57
25	Fiedler,Jay	MIA	119.0	0.60
5	Kitna,Jon	CIN	231.3	0.58
13	Favre,Brett	GB	189.1	0.53
24	Carr,David	HOU	128.6	0.54
21	Garcia,Jeff	SF	147.2	0.56
9	Brooks,Aaron	NO	203.5	0.53
18	Ramsey,Patrick	WAS	168.0	0.50
17	Delhomme,Jake	CAR	169.4	0.52
8	Johnson,Brad	TB	217.2	0.50
31	Testaverde,Vinny	NYJ	96.7	0.49
16	Blake,Jeff	ARI	176.5	0.51
10	Brady,Tom	NE	202.1	0.50
26	Stewart,Kordell	CHI	115.6	0.59
22	Leftwich,Byron	JAX	145.5	0.48
29	Johnson,Doug	ATL	110.1	0.46
14	Maddox,Tommy	PIT	181.4	0.44
12	Carter,Quincy	DAL	190.2	0.49
15	McNabb,Donovan	PHI	177.4	0.50
19	Bledsoe,Drew	BUF	158.5	0.42
30	Brees,Drew	SD	102.2	0.40
11	Collins,Kerry	NYG	194.5	0.40
28	Holcomb,Kelly	CLE	112.7	0.40
34	Gannon,Rich	OAK	85.5	0.38
33	Boller,Kyle	BAL	86.8	0.39
20	Harrington,Joey	DET	148.0	0.35
40	Chandler,Chris	CHI	56.8	0.32

Not a whole lot surprising at the top of this list—Daunte Culpepper and Steve McNair have been the QB rating leaders for their conference for weeks. Both also get the added benefit of rushing statistics, which are not counted against them with this metric. Kerry Collins, Donovan McNabb, Quincy Carter and Tommy Maddox all rank considerably lower on this list than on their season total. However, let’s now look at Points per play—which we’ll define as Total Fantasy Points, divided by the sum of total passing and rushing attempts. This should help us hone in on what quarterback is doing the most on each play.

#	Quarterback	NFL	Pts	Pts/Att
4	McNair,Steve	TEN	241.2	0.68
3	Culpepper,Daunte	MIN	244.8	0.64
27	Pennington,Chad	NYJ	113.6	0.62
2	Hasselbeck,Matt	SEA	249.1	0.61
23	Plummer,Jake	DEN	140.2	0.57
1	Manning,Peyton	IND	252.4	0.55
7	Green,Trent	KC	224.9	0.55
6	Bulger,Marc	STL	226.4	0.55
25	Fiedler,Jay	MIA	119.0	0.54
5	Kitna,Jon	CIN	231.3	0.53
13	Favre,Brett	GB	189.1	0.51
24	Carr,David	HOU	128.6	0.50
21	Garcia,Jeff	SF	147.2	0.49
9	Brooks,Aaron	NO	203.5	0.48
18	Ramsey,Patrick	WAS	168.0	0.48
17	Delhomme,Jake	CAR	169.4	0.47
8	Johnson,Brad	TB	217.2	0.47
31	Testaverde,Vinny	NYJ	96.7	0.47
16	Blake,Jeff	ARI	176.5	0.47
10	Brady,Tom	NE	202.1	0.46
26	Stewart,Kordell	CHI	115.6	0.46
22	Leftwich,Byron	JAX	145.5	0.46
29	Johnson,Doug	ATL	110.1	0.44
14	Maddox,Tommy	PIT	181.4	0.44
12	Carter,Quincy	DAL	190.2	0.43
15	McNabb,Donovan	PHI	177.4	0.43
19	Bledsoe,Drew	BUF	158.5	0.40
30	Brees,Drew	SD	102.2	0.39
11	Collins,Kerry	NYG	194.5	0.39
28	Holcomb,Kelly	CLE	112.7	0.38
34	Gannon,Rich	OAK	85.5	0.37
33	Boller,Kyle	BAL	86.8	0.34
20	Harrington,Joey	DET	148.0	0.33
40	Chandler,Chris	CHI	56.8	0.30

This list looks a little different, and the play of several quarterbacks stands out. Chad Pennington has clearly developed into one of the best players in the league, and he might be doing more with less than anyone around. Recall that his starting two wide receivers from last season caught 140 catches, 1,955 yards and fourteen scores. This year, Laveranues Coles and Wayne Chrebet have caught just thirty-four yards in the five games Pennington started. The other NY thrower stands out as well—Kerry Collins is ranked eleventh in our scoring system, meaning he certainly could be a starter on a fantasy playoff roster. Collins leads the league in pass attempts, and is one of just two QBs in the league with 3,000 yards. However here is where I think those statistics lie: Collins has more interceptions than touchdowns, is ranked 26^th in both yards per attempt and QB rating, and 25^th in completion percentage. He is your classic “compiler”, and those players are less likely to retain strong fantasy value than the efficient ones. Simply put, he offers little upside. Furthermore, he’s 24^th in points the last three weeks—I wouldn’t want to count on him in my fantasy playoffs.

What about a quarterback such as Donovan McNabb? He was a pre-season top three, and has moved all the way up to fifteenth. He’s also fifth in fantasy scoring the past three weeks. Interestingly, that coincides with a much better 0.63 FP/play ratio over that span. McNabb’s rapid rise is enough for me to forget about the first month and a half of the season.

If you’re playing a QBBC, it wouldn’t hurt to give this list a second glance. Remember two things as the calendar reads December. One, teams will throw less in poor weather, putting an emphasis on the efficient quarterback that doesn’t need a lot of plays to be productive. Second, as the importance of these games rise, expect the coaches to put the weight on the shoulders of their best player. For this reason, someone like Kerry Collins or Drew Bledsoe may get less chances the rest of the way.

Running backs are the heart of fantasy football, and those in their fantasy playoffs can likely attest to that. However, even if you have a strong stable of RBs, or a patchwork group, you’re going to have to make some tough decisions on who to start down the stretch. Who is the most reliable? Who can you count on to give you some points? I decided to break down the percentage of fantasy points for the top fifty runners, into three categories: Rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Each player’s fantasy production from a category was divided by their total fantasy points, to see what percentage of their fantasy points came from rushing, receiving, and scoring. For example, Zack Crockett was the overwhelming leader in %TD scoring, as that’s where he gets nearly all his points. Thus, Zack Crockett is ranked first in TD, while Kevin Faulk and Marcel Shipp 49^th and 50^th in that category—neither has crossed the goal-line this season. Here’s the total list, with their rank relative to the other forty-nine RBs in these three categories:

#	Running Back	NFL	Pts	%Rush	%Rec	%TD
1	Holmes,Priest	KC	275.6	42	14	9
2	Green,Ahman	GB	256.1	30	32	14
3	McAllister,Deuce	NO	223.6	20	24	35
4	Tomlinson,Ladainian	SD	217.1	31	16	24
5	Lewis,Jamal	BAL	209.0	9	42	29
6	Portis,Clinton	DEN	192.6	15	30	34
7	Alexander,Shaun	SEA	191.7	32	33	13
8	Davis,Stephen	CAR	180.3	7	47	28
9	Williams,Ricky	MIA	176.1	24	28	20
10	Henry,Travis	BUF	169.2	25	44	12
11	Taylor,Fred	JAX	164.0	17	18	40
12	Williams,Moe	MIN	161.8	46	8	23
13	Barber,Tiki	NYG	150.1	12	11	45
14	James,Edgerrin	IND	148.1	28	25	16
15	Davis,Domanick	HOU	143.0	22	13	37
16	Dunn,Warrick	ATL	130.8	34	10	30
17	Pittman,Michael	TB	122.5	27	6	46
18	Hearst,Garrison	SF	121.9	18	20	38
19	Westbrook,Brian	PHI	116.1	45	23	6
20	George,Eddie	TEN	113.5	13	45	21
21	Martin,Curtis	NYJ	109.6	3	27	48
22	Johnson,Rudi	CIN	109.3	14	41	19
23	Faulk,Marshall	STL	105.6	39	26	8
24	Hambrick,Troy	DAL	103.7	21	40	15
25	Duckett,T.J.	ATL	101.8	40	43	2
26	Thomas,Anthony	CHI	96.9	4	50	25
27	Faulk,Kevin	NE	96.6	26	2	49
28	Garner,Charlie	OAK	94.7	38	4	39
29	Staley,Duce	PHI	87.4	47	3	18
30	Barlow,Kevan	SF	85.8	8	22	44
31	Bryson,Shawn	DET	84.7	33	7	43
32	Shipp,Marcel	ARI	82.7	2	15	50
34	Buckhalter,Correll	PHI	81.2	41	34	5
33	Bettis,Jerome	PIT	81.2	23	49	10
35	Wheatley,Tyrone	OAK	77.1	19	31	27
36	Zereoue,Amos	PIT	74.3	35	5	42
37	Canidate,Trung	WAS	72.0	5	37	41
38	Anderson,Richie	DAL	68.4	49	1	22
39	Green,William	CLE	66.9	1	46	47
40	Jackson,James	CLE	64.6	29	19	17
41	Harris,Arlen	STL	59.1	44	21	7
42	Dillon,Corey	CIN	56.5	11	35	36
43	Smith,Antowain	NE	54.9	16	29	33
44	Betts,Ladell	WAS	53.9	37	9	32
45	Mack,Stacey	HOU	53.8	36	36	4
46	Gary,Olandis	DET	53.3	10	39	31
47	Jordan,Lamont	NYJ	52.6	48	17	3
48	Crockett,Zack	OAK	51.0	50	38	1
49	Davenport,Najeh	GB	50.9	6	48	26
50	Cartwright,Rock	WAS	50.2	43	12	11

Remember, none of these numbers are necessarily “bad”. Priest Holmes is forty-second in rushing%, but that’s not in any way saying that he’s a poor runner. It just says his total rushing yards isn’t the big reason he’s a fantasy superstar—he happens to lead all RBs in BOTH touchdowns and receiving yards. Where might this help you out? Players such as Curtis Martin and Marcel Shipp stand out—they’re the top two (unsuspended) RBs in %rushing yards. Both have been running the ball pretty well (each are at 3.9 ypc), and both also have 167 receiving yards this year. When you consider that Martin and Shipp totaled sixteen scores last season, it’s not unreasonable to expect a couple of scores from each the rest of the way. Anthony Thomas is in a similar boat, and is probably better than his twenty-sixth ranking would indicate. Domanick Davis is on a bad team, but he can score on the ground or in the air. That versatility greatly adds to his value. Even Tiki Barber looks pretty good here—the Giants offense is in disarray, but he doesn’t get many points from touchdowns. Whether or not this offense is strong in the final month, Barber should be a strong play.

Who to avoid? Brian Westbrook may be playing over his head. He’s not going to be a great touchdown machine, but is a strong runner and catcher. Still, a large percentage of his points to date have come through TDs, not a good sign for future success. With only thirty carries the last three weeks, I wouldn’t want to have to start him in a big game. Corey Dillon looks to be the featured back again in Cincy, but I have some reservations. He hasn’t been very good so far, and has just sixty yards through the air this season. With a tough Bengals schedule the rest of the way, I can see them behind a lot, and Dillon failing to garner many touches. Especially with the way Jon Kitna has been playing, that may be the direction Cincinnati goes regardless of their opponent.

Wide Receiver may be the most volatile position, extremely difficult to pick from week to week. Touchdowns? Yards per reception? What’s the best metric to predict future success? Wide receiver is a position so dependent on the rest of the offense, that it’s hard to separate the wide receiver from the rest of the offense. One statistic I like though is Fantasy point per target. This helps to see which wide receiver is scoring the most, with the least amount of targets. Having a high FP/T ratio can be achieved in a variety of ways, but it always means that the player does a strong job when the team looks his way. He can have lots of receptions, or a few big plays, but he’s certainly contributing. Here’s a look at the top sixty-five wide receivers, in Fantasy Points per Target:

#	Wide Receiver	NFL	Pts	Targets	FP/T
47	Kelly Campbell	MIN	65.3	29	2.25
4	Santana Moss	NYJ	154.9	77	2.01
24	Justin McCareins	TEN	96.7	59	1.64
58	Drew Bennett	TEN	55.9	40	1.40
28	Javon Walker	GB	83.6	60	1.39
1	Torry Holt	STL	199.2	148	1.35
36	Bobby Engram	SEA	76.5	57	1.34
2	Randy Moss	MIN	190.3	143	1.33
45	Andre' Davis	CLE	66.4	50	1.33
3	Chad Johnson	CIN	164.5	125	1.32
10	Derrick Mason	TEN	127.5	97	1.31
55	Marcus Robinson	BAL	57.8	44	1.31
7	Marvin Harrison	IND	139.5	108	1.29
13	Chris Chambers	MIA	123.7	97	1.28
8	Darrell Jackson	SEA	138.8	109	1.27
56	Darnerian McCants	WAS	57.3	45	1.27
27	Johnnie Morton	KC	86	70	1.23
17	David Boston	SD	111.1	91	1.22
18	Reggie Wayne	IND	109	90	1.21
63	Tyrone Calico	TEN	54.2	45	1.20
9	Keenan McCardell	TB	133	111	1.20
11	Steve Smith	CAR	125.3	107	1.17
60	Dane Looker	STL	54.9	47	1.17
5	Hines Ward	PIT	149.2	128	1.17
22	Terry Glenn	DAL	98.5	85	1.16
50	Troy Walters	IND	60	52	1.15
35	Bobby Shaw	BUF	77.3	67	1.15
6	Anquan Boldin	ARI	141.6	125	1.13
59	Corey Bradford	HOU	55.6	50	1.11
25	Koren Robinson	SEA	91.6	86	1.07
39	Tai Streets	SF	73.1	69	1.06
64	Troy Edwards	JAX	53.3	51	1.05
19	Peter Warrick	CIN	108.9	105	1.04
21	Andre Johnson	HOU	100.8	98	1.03
34	Keyshawn Johnson	TB	78.1	76	1.03
14	Terrell Owens	SF	122.1	120	1.02
30	Deion Branch	NE	80.3	80	1.00
15	Isaac Bruce	STL	113.8	116	0.98
12	Laveranues Coles	WAS	124.3	127	0.98
31	Eddie Kennison	KC	79.1	81	0.98
41	Travis Taylor	BAL	69.9	72	0.97
44	Joey Galloway	DAL	66.7	70	0.95
46	Dennis Northcutt	CLE	65.7	69	0.95
20	Joe Horn	NO	106.5	112	0.95
23	Ike Hilliard	NYG	97.2	105	0.93
29	Jimmy Smith	JAX	80.5	87	0.93
54	Ashley Lelie	DEN	58.5	64	0.91
52	Antonio Bryant	DAL	59.3	65	0.91
37	Muhsin Muhammed	CAR	74.2	82	0.90
26	Rod Smith	DEN	88.7	99	0.90
62	Jerome Pathon	NO	54.3	61	0.89
51	Kevin Johnson	JAX	59.8	68	0.88
16	Amani Toomer	NYG	113.4	132	0.86
61	Quincy Morgan	CLE	54.7	65	0.84
53	Tim Brown	OAK	59	71	0.83
33	Rod Gardner	WAS	78.4	101	0.78
48	Curtis Conway	NYJ	62.2	82	0.76
43	Jerry Rice	OAK	67.3	90	0.75
57	James Thrash	PHI	56.8	76	0.75
40	Eric Moulds	BUF	70.6	95	0.74
65	Donald Driver	GB	51.8	71	0.73
32	Plaxico Burress	PIT	79	111	0.71
42	Dez White	CHI	69.7	100	0.70
49	Josh Reed	BUF	61.6	92	0.67
38	Peerless Price	ATL	73.9	122	0.61

A few standouts:

Santana Moss is the only star receiver with a FP to target ratio of over 2.00. This should bode well for his future, as his value should only increase with an increase in looks.

Javon Walker, another young first round pick, is also very high on this list. He’s become a big play wideout, and Favre’s favorite target at wide receiver. He may come through with a strong December, especially with some important games coming up for the Pack.

Randy Moss and Torry Holt lead all wideouts in both targets and total fantasy points. However, they have also been very effective at making the most out of their opportunities. It’s not surprise that both are having the best years of their very good, young career.

Plaxico Burress and Peerless Price, two strong number two wide receivers from last year, are really struggling in this metric. Burress has simply been a bust, while at least some of Price’s struggles can be explained by the lost of Michael Vick.

Tim Brown and Jerry Rice have been absolutely awful at converting chances—although it’s unclear whether that’s due to poor QB play or a simple age-related decline in ability.

Many had hoped for a big season out of Josh Reed—it’s clear that he’s simply not making the most of his chances.

Good luck to all of you in your fantasy playoffs. Hopefully some of this information will be useful to you in your quest for the championship!