Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.

-- Ferris Bueller

The NFL is not a static sport: things are always moving and trends are always changing. Nowhere is this ever more visible than at the quarterback spot, the most important position in football. Is it changing yet again?

I won't soon forget 1998, which was the year of the old QB. Randall Cunningham (35) was the ace of the highest scoring team in league history; Chris Chandler (33) led the NFL as he averaged 9.6 yards per attempt and took his team to the Super Bowl; Vinny Testaverde (35) had the best season of his career, and led the Jets to a 12-1 record; John Elway (38) set a career high in yards per attempt, made his third straight Pro Bowl, and won his second straight Super Bowl. Lest we forget, Steve Young (age 37) had the best fantasy season of his era, averaging over 300 total yards per game and producing forty-two touchdowns.

At that time, many felt that the NFL was becoming so "complex", and offensive systems so intricate, that only a seasoned quarterback could be successful. Well certainly that didn't hold up for long. While they finished first, second, fourth, fifth and seventh in fantasy points per game, none of them has come close to duplicating 1998 since then. Pretty soon the newest trend evolved in the NFL-the running QB. Since the 2000 season, the running QB has made some pretty big impacts on the NFL. This of course, has quite a bit to do with the draft class of 1999 (Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb).

In 2000, a whopping seven QBs ran for over 400 yards. 2001 would have been an even better year if we saw full seasons out of Daunte Culpepper and Michael Vick. Last year? The top quartet of rushing QBs averaged over 575 rushing yards. In fact, over the past three seasons, the top six quarterbacks (listed by rushing yards) have averaged over 475 yards per season.

Now that was the trend of the past few seasons, culminating last year with Michael Vick (796 yards) and Daunte Culpepper (10 TDs) setting landmarks with their legs. However, IS this the league of the running QB, or WAS this the league of the running QB?

In case you haven't noticed, we're in something of a (very) down year for runners. There are only four QBs that have cleared the 200 yard barrier this year. The top six rushing QBs are on pace to average under 325 yards. That would represent over a 30% drop from previous years. What's the explanation? Certainly a case-by-case analysis would work best.

Michael Vick is the clear starting point. Last week, in his first start of the season, he ran for more yards in a game than all but one other QB has ever run for in the history of the league! (To be clear, his 141 yards were the third highest of all time, behind his own high-water mark of 173 yards). The absence of Vick all season has an impact on this list, but it's certainly not the only factor. Rest assured, Vick will be back and running quite a bit next season. In fact, those 141 yards Sunday night alone would put him in the top ten rushing totals for all QBs in 2002. While that's a testament to Vick, it also emphasizes the fact that less QBs are running this year.

Daunte Culpepper has finished in the top four each of the past three years, and this bridesmaid looks to finally lead all QBs in rushing yards this year. Culpepper has continued to run, and has managed to hold onto the football much better than in recent seasons.

Donovan McNabb's rushing yards per game from 2000-2002, would prorate to over 600 yards for a full season. This year? He's on pace for just about 400 rushing yards. He's rushing about one less time per game, and his yards per rush has taken a strong hit as well. He bulked up this offseason, and looks to be scrambling less this year. However, he is second in rushing yards among QBs, and he's been successful in at least one other way: the Eagles are 9-3, and look to be headed towards another division title.

Steve McNair might be the most worrisome example for fans of the rushing QB. He's transformed himself from a running QB to a throwing QB. Never did McNair fail to rush for at least ten yards a game more than three times in a single season. In 2002, McNair has finished a game in the single digits a whopping EIGHT times. He has rushed for over 400 yards each of the past three years-but has an upward battle to hit 175 this year. Of course, McNair's had his best passing season to date this year-most likely not a coincidence.

Jeff Garcia's having a down rushing year compared to 2000 and 2002, but not to 2001. However, he was very consistent in his carries-71, 72, 72 over the three years. With just forty-three carries in ten games so far, Garcia has averaged about a carry less per game.

Kordell Stewart was obviously one of the top running quarterbacks in the league. Now, he's struggling to hold onto a job (and just lost his latest act). Rich Gannon could be counted on for decent rushing stats in the past, but he may not be around for much longer. Rob Johnson, Mark Brunell, and Doug Flutie were all strong scramblers, but their time has come and gone. Jay Fiedler was an underrated runner, but has contributed little on the ground this year.

It's not just the top guys that have fallen-take a look at the rushing yards per season at each QB rank, the past four years. 2003 numbers have been prorated for three more games:

This coincides with another phenomenon-QB point totals are on the decline as well. Here are the average fantasy point totals for the top five QBs in the league. 2003 numbers are pro-rated.

Perhaps the most convincing proof of the decline of the scrambler is a simple glance at the leaderboards. Of the top eight QBs, just one is expected to rush for over 200 yards. Names such as Manning, Trent Green, Marc Bulger and Brad Johnson are all in that group. Matt Hasselbeck(!) is tied for the second most rushing yards (with McNair!) in that group.

Seven scramblers hit the 400 yard mark in 2000. Just one will likely hit it this year, and only two are sure bets to do it next year and beyond. Last year was the continuation of the trend that is moving away from the running QB, but Michael Vick and Daunte Culpepper hid the problem. This year the runners have fallen off a cliff, and no Michael (don't call him Mike) Vick is there to save the numbers. Quarterbacks are rushing for less yards and scoring less points.

When you sum the numbers for all 70+ QBs in the league, the dropoff continues to appear: In 2000, all QBs rushed for over 7,700 yards. During 2001 and last season, all quarterbacks rushed for over 6,700 yards. This year, all QBs are on pace for under 5,000 rushing yards. The rush attempts numbers show a similar story, although the yards per attempt as down by about 0.5-1.0 yards as well.

Help on the way? Not likely. With McNabb, McNair and Garcia getting older (and less likely to run), there doesn't appear to be a new breed to replace them. The last seven first round picks, since 2001?

• Carson Palmer: Your classic drop-back quarterback.
• Byron Leftwich: Just forty-two rushing yards in twelve career games.
• Kyle Boller: Fifty-two rushing yards in ten games.
• Rex Grossman?: In the category marked "Rushing Ability", Gary Danielson of ESPN.com wrote "This category is not applicable. He's just not a runner, and it doesn't matter."

Two of the top three picks in the 2002 draft class were QBs. David Carr is averaging about eleven rushing yards per game this year, and is a franchise QB because of his arm. Joey Harrington is even worse, with 903 career passing attempts, but just ninety rushing yards. Patrick Ramsey? Just sixty-one yards in his two partial seasons in the NFL.

So what does all this mean? I'm sure this topic will be studied further in the off-season (by myself at least), but on the surface two things pop out to me:

1. You can no longer count on the predictability of the running QB to give you some strong weekly stats.
2. If Michael Vick or even Daunte Culpepper can stay healthy for a full season, there's the potential for them to hold tremendous value.

P.S. This is the last installment of Goose Chase. It's been a fun year, and I hope to see you guys around in the summer of 2004.