One week is in the books, and as usual we don't know much. In the AFC East
two things were certain-the Dolphins at home in September, and Bill Belichick
owning Drew Bledsoe. The NFC Central had the Bears obliterated, the Lions play
in the best fantasy game of the day, and the Vikings top the Packers in Lambeau.
How much attention should we give week one? Most of us won't make any major
trades or waiver wire transactions off of one week, which is the right move
of course. However, one week in the books is a lot more concrete than the rhetoric
that has been spewed the past month.
This week I chose to look at something that stuck out in my mind from a handful
of games, and how it might affect the rest of our fantasy season:
New York Jets @ Washington Redskins
Laveranues Coles caught five passes for 102 yards, all in the first half.
Rod Garner struggled, netting just thirty-two yards on the same amount of receptions.
I viewed Gardner as the better value entering the season, as I expected similar
production from a lower draft pick. However, Coles has now caught at least sixty
yards in his last fourteen games (going for over ninety in half of them), and
has developed into one of the NFL's elite receivers. Gardner is a strong complementary
receiver, but Coles is more polished and brings more upside. I'd consider Coles
a number one WR this year, and Gardner would probably be better off as your
number three.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
I've been as strong a Hines Ward supporter as any on this website. However,
I was a little nervous early on-Plaxico Burress was the main target. Ward's
numbers looked great, but Burress impressed me more. Ward's second touchdown
was the direct result of the safety shifting towards new TE Jeff Riemersma,
something that should equally benefit Burress in 2003. Most fans had Burress
ranked in the top five, and Ward in the top ten. I had them flip-flopped, but
the way Tommy Maddox played I could see them both finishing in the top five.
In 1999, Randy Moss and Cris Carter finished in the top three at their position,
and I think Burress and Ward just might be able to approach that level. Either
way, both should make strong WR1s this year.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Wide Receiver |
Rec
|
Yards
|
TDs
|
Player A |
48
|
883
|
7
|
Player B |
70
|
1000
|
8
|
Player C |
52
|
734
|
3
|
Player A, B and C are actually the same person-one is an average fantasy third
receiver, one is a strong number two, and one isn't more than a fourth or fifth
option. Player A represents Chris Chambers in 2001, Player C is Chris Chambers
in 2002, and Player B would be a rough guess of what was expected of Chambers
in 2002. After an electrifying opening game performance, which Chris Chambers
will we see in 2003? Many probably have dreams that'll he'll live up to the
potential we all saw his rookie season, but I was very down on Chambers in the
pre-season. The Dolphins throw to their TEs and RBs too much, and they don't
throw very much at all. Add in a strong running game and defense, and I didn't
think a WR could excel in this system. Does one great week change my mind? Yes
and no-Chambers surely won't account for over half of Fiedler's passing yards
each week. However, Fiedler threw 32 passes, and equally important-he threw
fifteen more times than Ricky Williams ran the ball. The only time that happened
last season was in a week four blowout loss to the Chiefs. With his job on the
line, has Head Coach Dave Wanstedt decided to lean more on the passing game?
Considering Miami lost, it's not a great bet to see they use the same formula.
However, run Ricky run didn't take the Dolphins very far last year either. Usually
I don't advocate riding the hot hand, but Chambers' owners should start him
until he fails to produce.
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
Like the Redskins, the Seahawks have two very capable number one receivers.
However, there were three concerns I had for both Seahawk WRs, and only one
didn't show up on Sunday. Seattle used the TE frequently in years past, but
Itula Mili had just two yards in week one. However, a vastly improved defense
and Shaun Alexander the TD vulture will reign in their numbers all year. Seattle's
defense was one I targeted in my defensive team by committee article, and their
improvement will hurt Robinson's fantasy prospects. Alexander also scored twice,
and I think Seattle wide receivers will be hard pressed to total ten touchdowns
this year (they didn't in either 2000 or 2001).
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Fess up-how many of you knew that through thirteen weeks, Joey Galloway was
ranked ahead of Randy Moss last season? Before the late season collapse, the
former Buckeye star was actually ranked twelfth among all receivers. Galloway's
long removed from knee surgery, and is far from done at age thirty-one. With
seven catches for one-hundred and thirty-nine yards, Galloway has become a top
twenty fantasy receiver. Don't hesitate to start or trade for him.
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
I'm sure my fellow football staffers will hit on the rookie wide receivers
today. What excited me about this game was Joey Harrington. I've been very high
on him all off-season-only one other staffer ranked him in their top twenty.
There were five reasons I liked him entering 2003: 1) the much improved receiver
corps, with Charles Rogers and the return to good health of Bill Schroeder;
2) the lack of a running game in Detroit, especially with James Stewart injured;
3) a poor Lions defense, resulting in them passing early and often most of the
season; 4) a new quarterback friendly head coach in Steve Mariucci, who helped
develop Jeff Garcia; 5) Quarterback improvement is greatest from year one to
year two-Harrington seems like a fast study. Four touchdown passes are phenomenal,
but he was playing the Cards. Still, he was not sacked and didn't throw an interception,
leading the Lions to victory. I can certainly see a breakout season for Harrington,
but either way he'll be primed for a strong 2004. The kid has too much talent
and his head on his shoulders.
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
This game featured two super-star RBs, but only one showed up on Sunday. Four
times last year Tomlinson faced another fantasy stud RB-Clinton Portis twice,
Priest Holmes and Ricky Williams. How did he fare?
Tomlinson
|
Opposing Stud RB
|
Yards
|
TDs
|
Player
|
Yards
|
TDs
|
97
|
0
|
Portis
|
119
|
1
|
156
|
1
|
Holmes
|
159
|
1
|
59
|
0
|
Williams
|
151
|
2
|
271
|
3
|
Portis
|
205
|
4
|
In week one, Tomlinson totaled just sixty-one yards, a number Priest Holmes
tripled. The Chiefs defense could surprise this year, but they won't remind
anyone of the '85 Bears. Kansas City game planned to shut down LT, and San Diego
has now lost their last five games. Just once last year did he record fewer
than thirteen carries (twelve in a blowout loss to the Jets in week nine) or
under sixty-one yards (fifty-nine in a week twelve blowout loss to Miami). I've
been a very strong Tomlinson advocate, so it will take more than one poor performance
for me to drop him much. However, I would now have to say Priest Holmes is once
against the most valuable player in fantasy football.
St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants
Despite all the plays made in this game, the player that's most intriguing
to me didn't hit the field Sunday. With Kurt Warner ruled out for week two's
game against the rival 49ers, Bulger has the starting job for at least one week.
Where does he rank? Surely everyone will pick him up, but is it wise to start
him? Let's start with the Rams QBs:
Year
|
Pass Yds Rank
|
Pass TDs Rank
|
1999
|
1st
|
1st
|
2000
|
1st
|
1st
|
2001
|
1st
|
1st
|
2002
|
12th
|
12th
|
Over the three year period, the Rams averaged 312 passing yards and 2.4 passing
TDs per game; the teams ranked second in the league averaged 274 passing yards
and 2.1 passing TDs per game. How does this affect Bulger, who in six games
led the Rams to a perfect record? Despite playing on an inferior Rams team compared
to years past, he averaged 304 yards passing and 2.33 touchdowns per game (and
threw just six interceptions). Excluding his game with one attempt, Bulger's
24.33 fantasy point per game average topped everyone besides Donovan McNabb.
The San Francisco defense looked strong on Sunday, but I'd have a hard time
starting many QBs over Marc Bulger this week. Bulger appears to be a must start
every week he plays.
|