Since the NFL is always changing, fantasy football is constantly evolving. Riding the latest trends and cutting your losses are key ingredients to a successful fantasy season. We spent much of the summer analyzing the NFL in 2002, in hopes of better forecasting players for this year. However, at what point do you put away your old projections and start accepting this year's stats at face value? Who is more valuable for the rest of the season: a QB that ranked third a year ago, or third through two weeks in 2003? To get a better handle of this, I looked at the top quarterbacks from the 2001 season, and how they fared in 2002.

The first column is the Fantasy Points per Game (FP/G) scored during the 2001 season, the second, is the FP/G through the first weeks of 2002. The big question is which column is more useful in predicting the third column, the FP/G in 2002? What's more important in determining the fantasy value of a player-the first two weeks of the current season, or the entire previous year?

Those twelve quarterbacks were the top fantasy scorers at their position in 2001. Column four represents the absolute difference between columns one and three, or how much a player's FP/G changed from 2001 to 2002. Column five is the absolute difference between columns two and three, or how much a player's FP/G changed from the first two weeks of 2002 compared to the entire 2002 season. The average difference was actually greater using the 2001 season data (by a small margin), although that changed if Warner was removed. The conclusion? Two weeks of this year is roughly equivalent to a full season of last year. The usual caveats apply, but this means you shouldn't magically expect things to revert to last year. Does that mean Rich Gannon (#21), Donovan McNabb (#25) and Peyton Manning (#27) owners should worry? Manning should get a pass due to his consistency throughout his career-and his team is 2-0. He was awful in week one, but looked strong against the Titans and should have another excellent fantasy year. McNabb is playing absolutely awful (41.4 QB rating, 4.07 ypa, 45.1 completion percentage), but he has already run for 108 yards. McNabb totaled fifty scores in his previous twenty-six games, but has yet to reach the end zone this year. He will get his touchdowns and his rushing yards, but right now I'd have a very difficult time starting Donovan McNabb. He looks simply awful out there, and the Philly faithful are already calling for his head.

Of course at least McNabb can run, something Rich Gannon hasn't been doing this year. Have the wheels fallen off for the Silver and Black? These next two weeks are very critical for the Raiders, and we should see what type of team they are: facing the winless Bears and Browns, if Gannon doesn't have a couple of strong games I'd probably considering trading him, or trading for a better starting QB. It's tough to say whether age has caught up with him, but right now the situation in Oakland isn't very good. They are in the bottom half of their division, without Jerry Porter and apparently suffering from a Super Bowl hangover. Did Gruden give us the blueprint to beat the Raiders? Until he turns it around, bench Gannon if you have a decent backup quarterback.

Of course, not everyone is off to an awful start...

Pat yourself on the back if you had Quincy Carter leading the NFC in passing yards after the first two weeks of the season. Remember the Dallas QB situation everyone told you to avoid? Carter is a mobile quarterback with a trio of talented receivers, and has been airing the ball out early on. Carter, along with Jay Fiedler (more on him in a minute) is one of just four QBs averaging over eight yards per attempt. Can he keep this up? I think there's considerable upside to Quincy Carter, and few coaches can get more out of a player than Bill Parcells. The early returns are enough to convince me-Quincy Carter will be a strong fantasy quarterback this season.

Jay Fiedler is tied for the league lead with five total touchdowns, and is currently ranked as the number three QB. After two weeks last season, Fiedler had six total scores and was ranked fourth-we know how it ended then. I have always felt that Fiedler has been undervalued, and he is likely in for his best year yet. As long as his weapons stay healthy, Fiedler should continue to deliver top ten numbers-don't be afraid to start him.

Patrick Ramsey is ranked sixth in passing yards, fifth in both quarterback rating and completion percentage, and second in yards per attempt. The surprising thing to me isn't that Ramsey's thrown for a lot of yards-it's that he's done it with quality, not quantity. He's just nineteenth in passes attempted, a number that's likely to rise as the season goes on. Considering how well he's looked early on, Ramsey has top five potential if the Redskins air the ball out the way we expect.

Sometimes it's hard to realize that it's a new year, and that the NFL is a very volatile league. Grabbing any of those three players while their value is still relatively low could be a key move to winning your league. It's very possible that their owner hasn't even started them yet this year, as none were viewed as anything more than backups in the preseason. Ramsey has the most upside of the bunch, Carter will come cheapest, and Fiedler is the safest. Depending on your current needs, I would urge you to go after whichever QB best fits your team.