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Goose Chase

After six weeks of the NFL, we've got three unbeaten teams. The Chiefs, who finished thirty-second (read: last) in team defense last year; the Panthers, who finished ahead of just the expansion Texans in team offense a year ago; and the Vikings, who ranked thirtieth in points scored in 2002. While those are three of the bigger team surprises so far, there have been some interesting player developments a third of the way through the season.

Torry Holt

The last three seasons, St. Louis Rams WR Torry Holt has averaged 1,433 yards and 5.6 touchdowns. That's just one touchdown for every 253 yards, a very low rate among the elite receivers. From 2000-2002, Torry Holt led the NFC in receiving yards with 4,300 yards. Only Marvin Harrison had more, but his 4,659 yards came with a lot more scores-he's got over twice as many as Holt over the same span. Here's the list of the top twenty-five yardage leaders since from 2000-2002, along with how many touchdowns they compiled, and how many yards they gained per touchdown scored.

Player
Rec Yds
Rec TD
Yd/TD
Marvin Harrison
4659
40
116
Torry Holt
4300
17
253
Terrell Owens
4163
42
99
Randy Moss
4017
32
126
Rod Smith
3957
24
165
Joe Horn
3911
24
163
Isaac Bruce
3652
22
166
Jimmy Smith
3613
23
157
Eric Moulds
3517
20
176
Amani Toomer
3489
20
174
David Boston
3266
16
204
Keyshawn Johnson
3228
14
231
Tim Brown
3223
22
147
Jerry Rice
3155
23
137
Troy Brown
3049
12
254
Derrick Mason
3035
19
160
Hines Ward
3014
20
151
Keenan McCardell
2987
17
176
Peerless Price
2909
19
153
Marty Booker
2744
16
172
Curtis Conway
2694
16
168
Darrell Jackson
2671
18
148
Plaxico Burress
2606
13
200
Muhsin Muhammad
2591
10
259
Bill Schroeder
2512
18
140
Average
3318
20.7
172

Not surprisingly, Terrell Owens was the most efficient touchdown scorer, as he averaged around one touchdown for every hundred yards gained. Only Muhsin Muhammad and Troy Brown had Red-Zone phobia as much as Torry Holt.

The prevailing opinion on Holt was that he would never be a big touchdown producer in the Rams offense-he simply wasn't featured in the red zone. Well after Monday night's game, Holt now leads the league in receiving yards per game. While that 107 yards per game metric is very impressive, what's more surprising are his five scores in as many games. The Rams passed for 98 touchdowns the past three seasons, but Holt was the beneficiary of less than 20% of their success. This year, Holt has over half of the Rams eight scores through the air. So which the fluke? Five games, or forty-eight?

Rams running backs and tight ends accounted for over one-third of their receiving touchdowns from 2000-2002, but have failed to haul in even one TD grab in 2003. Is this the start of a new trend? It's without question that Kurt Warner excelled at spreading the ball around, especially near the goal-line. Is Marc Bulger more likely to develop a strong rapport with Holt, similar to Manning/Harrison? Of the fourteen touchdowns thrown by Bulger last year, four went to RBs and TEs, and Holt scored three times in the six games.

Conclusion? Holt's fast start is probably more of an aberration than anything-he certainly won't catch more touchdowns than the rest of the Rams combined. However, he's very likely to hit double digit TDs this season, and finish among the top three by the end of the year. There's no doubt about who is the top wideout in St. Louis this season.


Brad Johnson

Brad Johnson wasn't ranked in the top ten by any of our experts in the pre-season, but is currently third in the NFL in fantasy points. In five games, Johnson has thrown twelve touchdowns, and is on pace for 4.336 yards. Last year he had the lowest interception rate in the NFL, and once again he's not making mistakes-just three INTs in 190 pass attempts. However, what makes him a fantasy stud are his touchdowns-and no one in the NFL is throwing touchdowns at a higher rate than Brad Johnson. Johnson has thrown more than one every sixteen attempts, and has a QB rating over 100.

Can Johnson continue his great success? The Bucs are eighth in points scored, and third in passing yards in the league. The Super Bowl Champs are also in the top five in points and yards allowed. It's unlikely that Tampa Bay will continue to dominate both offensively and defensively. Don't forget, Johnson had a phenomenal stretch last season, recording fifteen touchdowns in five games. Tampa Bay has enough weapons offensively, for a Gruden-led passing attack to dominate. However, expect them to win games with their defense and utilize an efficient offense, not the other way around. I'd say this is a sell-high time on Brad Johnson-he should be a top twelve starter the rest of the season, but he won't be top three for very long. He's been on fire the past two weeks, throwing seven scores and should remain in your lineup until he cools off. However, if you can get a great offer for him, I'd strongly consider it.


Ahman Green

Remember when Ahman Green's role was going to be reduced in the Packers offense this year? He currently leads the NFC in carries (131), rushing yards (699), and touchdowns (nine!). He's currently the top RB in fantasy football, yet wasn't in anyone's pre-season top five. Remember, Ahman Green finished in the top five in fantasy points in both 2000 and 2001, and (after accounting for partial games), finished with more points per game in 2002 than 2001. Green has been a consistently strong fantasy producer since he's been a Packer, but he's on pace for his best season yet. He's currently projected for 349 carries and 1,864 yards, and twenty one touchdowns on the ground. He's still producing well through the air, and would finish with a prorated 445 yards and three more scores. As many expected Green to suffer his worst year as a Packer, he's entering the territory of the Priest Holmeses and Marshall Faulks of the world. What's even more amazing is his consistency: In five of his six games, he's scored in between twenty-two and thirty-two fantasy points. He's been a fantasy stud, and has contributed strongly each week. So when did he turn from star to superstar?

He's touched the ball between twenty-two and thirty-two times every game this season, and has been the primary back near the goal-line. He has touchdowns of: one (twice), three, four, six, eight, eleven, sixty and sixty-five yards. Green has the most receptions on Green Bay, and has rushed for over 600 more yards than his backup, Najeh Davenport. He's not in a committee, he's catching the ball, he's the goal-line back, and he's rushing for 5.3 yards per carry. Right now Ahman Green is a superstar, and the most valuable player in fantasy football. Expect another top three season out of Ahman Green.

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