After six weeks of the NFL, we've got three unbeaten teams. The Chiefs, who
finished thirty-second (read: last) in team defense last year; the Panthers,
who finished ahead of just the expansion Texans in team offense a year ago;
and the Vikings, who ranked thirtieth in points scored in 2002. While those
are three of the bigger team surprises so far, there have been some interesting
player developments a third of the way through the season.
Torry Holt
The last three seasons, St. Louis Rams WR Torry Holt has averaged 1,433 yards
and 5.6 touchdowns. That's just one touchdown for every 253 yards, a very low
rate among the elite receivers. From 2000-2002, Torry Holt led the NFC in receiving
yards with 4,300 yards. Only Marvin Harrison had more, but his 4,659 yards came
with a lot more scores-he's got over twice as many as Holt over the same span.
Here's the list of the top twenty-five yardage leaders since from 2000-2002,
along with how many touchdowns they compiled, and how many yards they gained
per touchdown scored.
Player |
Rec
Yds
|
Rec
TD
|
Yd/TD
|
Marvin Harrison |
4659
|
40
|
116
|
Torry Holt |
4300
|
17
|
253
|
Terrell Owens |
4163
|
42
|
99
|
Randy Moss |
4017
|
32
|
126
|
Rod Smith |
3957
|
24
|
165
|
Joe Horn |
3911
|
24
|
163
|
Isaac Bruce |
3652
|
22
|
166
|
Jimmy Smith |
3613
|
23
|
157
|
Eric Moulds |
3517
|
20
|
176
|
Amani Toomer |
3489
|
20
|
174
|
David Boston |
3266
|
16
|
204
|
Keyshawn Johnson |
3228
|
14
|
231
|
Tim Brown |
3223
|
22
|
147
|
Jerry Rice |
3155
|
23
|
137
|
Troy Brown |
3049
|
12
|
254
|
Derrick Mason |
3035
|
19
|
160
|
Hines Ward |
3014
|
20
|
151
|
Keenan McCardell |
2987
|
17
|
176
|
Peerless Price |
2909
|
19
|
153
|
Marty Booker |
2744
|
16
|
172
|
Curtis Conway |
2694
|
16
|
168
|
Darrell Jackson |
2671
|
18
|
148
|
Plaxico Burress |
2606
|
13
|
200
|
Muhsin Muhammad |
2591
|
10
|
259
|
Bill Schroeder |
2512
|
18
|
140
|
Average |
3318
|
20.7
|
172
|
Not surprisingly, Terrell Owens was the most efficient touchdown scorer, as
he averaged around one touchdown for every hundred yards gained. Only Muhsin
Muhammad and Troy Brown had Red-Zone phobia as much as Torry Holt.
The prevailing opinion on Holt was that he would never be a big touchdown producer
in the Rams offense-he simply wasn't featured in the red zone. Well after Monday
night's game, Holt now leads the league in receiving yards per game. While that
107 yards per game metric is very impressive, what's more surprising are his
five scores in as many games. The Rams passed for 98 touchdowns the past three
seasons, but Holt was the beneficiary of less than 20% of their success. This
year, Holt has over half of the Rams eight scores through the air. So which
the fluke? Five games, or forty-eight?
Rams running backs and tight ends accounted for over one-third of their receiving
touchdowns from 2000-2002, but have failed to haul in even one TD grab in 2003.
Is this the start of a new trend? It's without question that Kurt Warner excelled
at spreading the ball around, especially near the goal-line. Is Marc Bulger
more likely to develop a strong rapport with Holt, similar to Manning/Harrison?
Of the fourteen touchdowns thrown by Bulger last year, four went to RBs and
TEs, and Holt scored three times in the six games.
Conclusion? Holt's fast start is probably more of an aberration than anything-he
certainly won't catch more touchdowns than the rest of the Rams combined. However,
he's very likely to hit double digit TDs this season, and finish among the top
three by the end of the year. There's no doubt about who is the top wideout
in St. Louis this season.
Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson wasn't ranked in the top ten by any of our experts in the pre-season,
but is currently third in the NFL in fantasy points. In five games, Johnson
has thrown twelve touchdowns, and is on pace for 4.336 yards. Last year he had
the lowest interception rate in the NFL, and once again he's not making mistakes-just
three INTs in 190 pass attempts. However, what makes him a fantasy stud are
his touchdowns-and no one in the NFL is throwing touchdowns at a higher rate
than Brad Johnson. Johnson has thrown more than one every sixteen attempts,
and has a QB rating over 100.
Can Johnson continue his great success? The Bucs are eighth in points scored,
and third in passing yards in the league. The Super Bowl Champs are also in
the top five in points and yards allowed. It's unlikely that Tampa Bay will
continue to dominate both offensively and defensively. Don't forget, Johnson
had a phenomenal stretch last season, recording fifteen touchdowns in five games.
Tampa Bay has enough weapons offensively, for a Gruden-led passing attack to
dominate. However, expect them to win games with their defense and utilize an
efficient offense, not the other way around. I'd say this is a sell-high time
on Brad Johnson-he should be a top twelve starter the rest of the season, but
he won't be top three for very long. He's been on fire the past two weeks, throwing
seven scores and should remain in your lineup until he cools off. However, if
you can get a great offer for him, I'd strongly consider it.
Ahman Green
Remember when Ahman Green's role was going to be reduced in the Packers offense
this year? He currently leads the NFC in carries (131), rushing yards (699),
and touchdowns (nine!). He's currently the top RB in fantasy football, yet wasn't
in anyone's pre-season top five. Remember, Ahman Green finished in the top five
in fantasy points in both 2000 and 2001, and (after accounting for partial games),
finished with more points per game in 2002 than 2001. Green has been a consistently
strong fantasy producer since he's been a Packer, but he's on pace for his best
season yet. He's currently projected for 349 carries and 1,864 yards, and twenty
one touchdowns on the ground. He's still producing well through the air, and
would finish with a prorated 445 yards and three more scores. As many expected
Green to suffer his worst year as a Packer, he's entering the territory of the
Priest Holmeses and Marshall Faulks of the world. What's even more amazing is
his consistency: In five of his six games, he's scored in between twenty-two
and thirty-two fantasy points. He's been a fantasy stud, and has contributed
strongly each week. So when did he turn from star to superstar?
He's touched the ball between twenty-two and thirty-two times every game this
season, and has been the primary back near the goal-line. He has touchdowns
of: one (twice), three, four, six, eight, eleven, sixty and sixty-five yards.
Green has the most receptions on Green Bay, and has rushed for over 600 more
yards than his backup, Najeh Davenport. He's not in a committee, he's catching
the ball, he's the goal-line back, and he's rushing for 5.3 yards per carry.
Right now Ahman Green is a superstar, and the most valuable player in fantasy
football. Expect another top three season out of Ahman Green.
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