Tight Ends do not score as many fantasy points and are not as large a factor in fantasy football as good quarterbacks, runningbacks and wide receivers. As such, many fantasy players wait to the middle rounds or even later to grab their starting tight end, as they are both hard to predict and the average tight end doesn’t distinguish himself much from his peers. How do you know who’s the next big thing? Where do they come from? Cam Cleeland was the number two tight end in fantasy football as a ROOKIE a couple of seasons ago. Meanwhile, it took Marcus Pollard seven years in the league before he could rank that high. Chad Lewis never got drafted nor caught one hundred yards in a season before his breakout. This article will take a look at what point in their careers the top tight ends the past few years have emerged.
To define being a breakout or very productive tight end, I used a standard of ninety fantasy points. Twenty three times during the past five years a tight end has scored at least ninety points, by thirteen different players. The scoring system used was 1 pt for 10 yards receiving and 6 pts for a touchdown. Shannon Sharpe was the only player to break the barrier for four seasons, and Tony Gonzalez and Frank Wycheck each had three seasons above the benchmark. Here’s a list of all the guys to have scored ninety points in a fantasy season:
In the following chart, Rank is the rank among TEs the player was that Year, the third column. Breakout is the season they first broke the 90 point barrier, or in the case of the players before 1997, broke the top five. RBB is the Rank of the player the season before the break, RDB is the Rank of the player during the break, and RAB is the Rank of the player after the break.
|
Year |
Breakout |
Season |
Drafted |
RBB |
RDB |
RAB |
||
|
2 |
Cameron Cleeland |
1998 |
1998 |
1 |
2 |
n/a |
2 |
23 |
|
6 |
Eric Green |
1997 |
1991 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
3 |
23 |
|
3 |
Rickey Dudley |
1997 |
1997 |
2 |
1 |
12 |
3 |
5 |
|
3 |
Rickey Dudley |
1999 |
1997 |
2 |
1 |
12 |
3 |
5 |
|
1 |
Shannon Sharpe |
1997 |
1992 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
4 |
1 |
|
1 |
Shannon Sharpe |
1998 |
1992 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
4 |
1 |
|
2 |
Shannon Sharpe |
2000 |
1992 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
4 |
1 |
|
3 |
Shannon Sharpe |
2001 |
1992 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
4 |
1 |
|
2 |
Ben Coates |
1997 |
1993 |
3 |
5 |
20 |
3 |
1 |
|
3 |
Ben Coates |
1998 |
1993 |
3 |
5 |
20 |
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
Tony Gonzalez |
1999 |
1999 |
3 |
1 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2000 |
1999 |
3 |
1 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2001 |
1999 |
3 |
1 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
|
4 |
Desmond Clark |
2001 |
2001 |
3 |
6 |
16 |
4 |
n/a |
|
5 |
Frank Wycheck |
1997 |
1996 |
4 |
6 |
15 |
5 |
5 |
|
4 |
Frank Wycheck |
2000 |
1996 |
4 |
6 |
15 |
5 |
5 |
|
5 |
Frank Wycheck |
2001 |
1996 |
4 |
6 |
15 |
5 |
5 |
|
3 |
Freddie Jones |
2000 |
2000 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
13 |
|
5 |
Chad Lewis |
2000 |
2000 |
4 |
undrafted |
33 |
4 |
9 |
|
6 |
Kyle Brady |
2000 |
2000 |
6 |
1 |
21 |
5 |
19 |
|
2 |
Marcus Pollard |
2001 |
2001 |
7 |
undrafted |
11 |
2 |
n/a |
|
1 |
Wesley Walls |
1999 |
1996 |
8 |
2 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
|
4 |
Wesley Walls |
1997 |
1996 |
8 |
2 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
Similar to wide receivers, the tight ends mostly broke out during their second, third or fourth seasons. Wesley Walls was also essentially a third year breakout, as he never caught thirty yards his first five season as a 49er. It seems that once tight ends become a starter, it takes them about a year or two to get comfortable. If they are good, they’ll break out soon. Tight end is very team dependant, so they are often harder to predict with consistency. The tight end is affected by the tendencies of the coach, the offensive system, the quarterback, the quality of the other wide receivers, and the quality of the line (the weaker it is, the more a tight end may be used for just blocking). Also, since they need to learn both passing and blocking routes their first year, it is very hard to see tight ends emerge as stars their first year. Who are the tight ends in line to break out next? Let’s take a look at six tight ends entering their second, third or fourth seasons, as well as a former receiver in year two of his tight end career.
Bubba Franks Last season: 36 rec. 322 yds, 9 TDs
Only a super-prospect like Bubba Franks could have a disappointing year despite grabbing more touchdown passes than any other tight end in the league. The problem was Franks actually caught less yards last season than his rookie year, even with the Packers having all sorts of wide receiver problems. David Martin, William Henderson and Dorsey Levens wouldn’t have all caught over 100 yards if Franks was able to become a great tight end outside of the ten yard line. Still, Franks is now in his third season and should have no problems breaking the four hundred yard mark. With new starting receivers in Titletown, Favre may lean on Franks more than ever this year. Unfortunately for Franks, David Martin, Tyrone Davis and William Henderson are good players, and unless Franks really separates himself from the pack (no pun intended) he’ll have a hard time reaching the top five in receiving yards.
Anthony Becht Last season: 36 rec. 321 yds, 5 TDs
Anthony Becht is a talented tight end on the wrong team. With Richie Anderson and Curtis Martin being good receiving options, it’s hard for Becht to get the ball. Wayne Chrebet runs a lot of possession routes as well, and with Moss being there this year Becht will have even more competition for balls. There are a few bright spots for Becht, mainly that he more than doubled his production from his poor rookie season. He’s by far the Jets biggest target, and Testaverde looks for him when the Jets get inside the five. He caught back to back game winning touchdowns late in the season, so Testaverde clearly has faith in him. Becht is a poor man’s Bubba Franks (as he was coming out of the draft): very good goal line option, good player, but on the wrong team.
Todd Heap Last year: 16 rec. 206 yds, 1 TD (73 rec. 811 yds, 1 TD)
The numbers in parenthesis are the numbers posted by Shannon Sharpe last year for the Ravens, and the more relevant numbers when discussing Todd Heap. The team has nothing at receiver outside of Travis Taylor and Todd Heap, and they haven’t exactly proved themselves yet. It seems almost impossible for Heap not to grab at least 500 yards, and possibly quite a bit more. He worked with Redman last season, and the young QB will likely look to his tight end constantly this year. You couldn’t draw up a better script for a tight end, and Heap is a great talent as well. Even an awful Chris Redman shouldn’t hold back Todd Heap from being the next big thing at tight end.
Alge Crumper Last year: 25 rec. 330 yds, 3 TDs
Crumpler is a very good young tight end, and entering his second season there’s not much of a limit on his potential. Young Michael Vick will likely lean on his backs and tight ends, as most green quarterbacks do. The problem for Crumpler is that there are a lot of options there, including Warrick Dunn and Reggie Kelly. Crumpler will also have a hard time getting a lot of TDs, as Vick and Duckett will get most of the limited Falcons touchdowns. I see Crumpler having a Wycheck type season, and depending on his luck in the red zone he may be a star this year.
Eric Johnson Last year: 40 rec. 363 yds, 3 TDs
Johnson is the tight end San Francisco has wanted for years. The sixth round pick surprised just about everyone with his season, and it’s certainly possible he’ll improve on his numbers from last year. With twelve multi-catch games, Jeff Garcia looked to him consistently last season and should be much more comfortable with him this year. Believe it or not, the 49ers actually finished in the bottom half of the league in passing yards, as they were able to dominate a lot of teams and run the clock out quite a bit. This year they will likely finish top ten again. Johnson should be one of the main beneficiaries of that, although if San Fran brings in another WR to complement Owens, Johnson’s value takes a big hit.
Mikhael Ricks Last year: 18 rec. 252 yds, 1 TD
Ricks posted similar numbers to star prospect Todd Heap, as they backed up the top two tight ends in the league. Ricks now moves to Detroit, which has new faces all over the passing game. Joey Harrington and Mike McMahon should enjoy throwing to the former wide receiver, as Ricks is a tremendous physical talent at TE. Ricks certainly has obstacles in his path, mainly holding the job as the starter despite poor blocking skills. Germane Crowell, Az-Zahir Hakim and Bill Schroeder are very much boom or bust players, and could make Ricks very expendable in the passing game. On the bright side, Ricks is a great big target at tight end, and the Lions like throwing there. David Sloan caught 407 yards and scored seven times last year, and Ricks will eat into the big receiving yards the RBs had last year as well. While Ricks may disappoint and get benched, his great potential and upside make him a good value late in drafts.
Chase Stuart
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