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Email Update 8/17/02 Volume 3 Issue # 64

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Hi Folks,

Big night of games with lots of stuff going on.

Of course, the big news of the Day is Dominic Rhodes missing the
season with a knee injury. Make a mental note, when the Colts
stall and Polian downplays the injury � get worried. Looks like
it'll be a great chance for Edgerrin James to see how ready he is to
carry the load this season.

Quick note about email help: In order to help you solve your login
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Let's jump right to the news. Tonight it's brought to you by our
friend and Footballguy, Greg Kellogg from www.Komments.com


Joe

--------------
Joe Bryant
www.footballguys.com


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IN THIS ISSUE

1. Rams Injury List Grows
2. Charger QB Contest a Draw
3. Vikings Offense Rolls
4. A Look at Offensive Distribution in Arizona
5. Who is the Best QB in Atlanta?
6. Raven's Pass Defense Suspect
7. Perfect Recipe for Fantasy in Buffalo
8. Panthers to Open Playbook
9. Bengal Starter Could be Named by Monday
10. Cowboy's Offense Struggles in Practice
11. Questions Surround Bronco's Offense
12. McMahon and Harrington to Shoulder the Load Again
13. Favre Needs Work
14. Houston Needs to Prove They Can Run the Ball
15. Colt's Thin at RB
16. Chief's Fail to Answer Questions in Camp
17. Saints Coming Together
18. Barber Expected to Play
19. Raiders Stink But Some Refuse to Admit It
20. Pinkston Continues to Improve
21. Stokes Ready to Live Up to Hype?
22. Kearse Expected to be Ready for Opener


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1. Rams Injury List Grows

clipped from STLtoday

Wide receiver Torry Holt was shaken up late in the first half when
he took a blow to the back, spitting up some blood. But X-rays were
negative.


Terrence Wilkins saw a good night returning punts end when he landed
hard in the second half on his ribs. X-rays were negative. Wilkins
had returns of 30 and 19 yards. He was shaken up on the 19-yard
return.


Rookie safety Steve Bellisari also left in the second half with a
left knee sprain. Another rookie, running back Lamar Gordon, didn't
play in the second half because of an ankle injury. None of the
injuries appeared to be serious.



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This report actually shows just how misleading after-game reports
can be. First Holt has bruised ribs and though it is not considered
serious at this time, spitting up blood from a shot to the ribs can
never be considered good news. Wilkins also has bruised ribs but is
expected to miss at least three weeks. In a related story Mike
Martz said, "The only one out of that group that we're actually
worried about obviously is Wilkins. He was very instrumental in
what we do. He was just coming around and feeling good about
returning punts and returning kickoffs. He was learning the full
wide receiver stuff. He got to the point where he was coming up to
speed. It's a shame this has happened to him. It looks like it's
probably a three-week deal." And once again, the generic "knee
sprain" is not quite that. Bellisari suffered a partial tear of his
ACL. Truthfully the only injury that should concern YOU is that to
Torry Holt though. It is too early to drop Holt in your rankings or
to move Isaac Bruce up, but you might want to startthinking about
it. Just two more preseason games to get healthy. The Bears looked
strong early, but it is clear that they also must remain healthy or
face a sub-par season. There is zero depth on that offensive line
and neither of the QBs is known for being an iron man. If you
haven't already, it is time to start moving Dez White up your
receiver rankings. Miller looked to him often last night and he
responded in a big way (5-69 1 TD). He will be the guy that
stretches the field and I saw nothing to suggest that he will be
overtaken by either David Terrell or Marcus Robinson.



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2. Charger QB Contest a Draw

Doug Flutie said he felt like a kid again as he scrambled across the
field. His second-year rival looked like the seasoned veteran as he
ran a controlled offense.


Together they helped lead the San Diego Chargers to a 24-14
exhibition victory Friday night over the Seattle Seahawks, but the
game produced no clear choice in the competition for the team's
starting quarterback job.


Both men said they would have no choice but to patiently wait for
coach Marty Shottenheimer to show his hand.



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Flutie's interception was bad, but when you look a little deeper
than the initial stats you can see that Doug Flutie is a little bit
better than Drew Brees at this point. Brees, playing entirely with
the first team, averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt. Further, his
first three completions were all screen passes. Doug Flutie, who
spent much of his time running around escaping seemingly unblocked
defensive linemen and linebackers, averaged a more respectable 7.8
yards per attempt. The interception does hurt his cause though
because it was a very poor decision with little pressure. The final
determination may come down to whether Marty wants to go with youth
or trust his fates to an established veteran. The fans likely would
choose youth -- I am not certain Marty will agree. You see, when
the games start to count, the defenses get much more complex and
disguise their blitzes and coverage schemes much better. In this
case the veteran always has an advantage. On the other side of the
ball, Matt Hasselbeck looked absolutely horrendous. The kid has no
confidence and it shows. Alex Van Dyke came in and looked superb.
Seahawk's fans can only hope Dilfer gets back soon because the
Chargers made it clear they had no respect for Hasselbeck by
crowding the line -- a strategy that helped them hold running back
Shaun Alexander to just five yards on six carries.



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3. Vikings Offense Rolls

Culpepper, who played the entire opening half and completed 12-of-19
passes, led the Vikings on drives of 55, 76, 73 and 81 yards.

After Culpepper hit star receiver Randy Moss for 48 yards to the
Buffalo 3, Michael Bennett ran in behind right guard to give
Minnesota a 7-3 edge just 4:12 into the contest.

Moss finished with four catches for 71 yards and Bennett ran for 49
yards on just five attempts.


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I don't know how much more folks need to see before they start to
believe Mike Tice. If he says he will try to get Randy Moss the
ball two out of every five pass plays, I think I would see that as a
reason to slot Moss at the top of the WR rankings. It is clear that
neither of these two teams is going to be defensive stalwarts but
anytime you have a QB that leads his team on four long drives in
four attempts -- well that is a very good sign. As for the Randy
Ratio -- Culpepper threw 19 passes, seven were targeted at Moss with
an eighth Moss pass disallowed due to a penalty. Two Culpepper to
Moss red zone passes (both overthrown) were attempted. As for the
secondary receivers, Bates had a lost fumble on his first reception
and Alexander had one pass go right through his hands. Alexander
did have 20 and 32-yard receptions on the night, showing his ability
to stretch the field. Maybe it's just me, but if these three guys
all play significant time this year, Daunte Culpepper could
challenge Kurt Warner for the top QB spot.



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4. A Look at Offensive Distribution in Arizona

NFL offenses usually run between 900 and 1,000 plays a season.
That's an average of about 57 to 63 plays a game.

Boston's ability demands the Cardinals throw his way at least 10
times a game.

Coaches think running back Thomas Jones needs 20 to 25 touches to
show his true abilities.

Factor in plays for Freddie Jones, receivers Frank Sanders, MarTay
Jenkins and Bryan Gilmore and a backup running back, and it's
obvious someone isn't going to get the ball as much as he wants.


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As long as Boston is on the field, he will continue to be the
primary offensive threat for the Cardinals. Last season he had 175
passes thrown to him in 16 starts - that averages out to almost 11
passes per game. Where he might get hurt is in the red zone.
Freddie Jones will offer an inviting target in close but with only
eight red zone receptions last season, I don't believe we are
talking about a large difference. The biggest threat to Boston's
continued dominance remains a possible suspension or a further
deterioration of his knees. On the other hand, the fact that the
coaches believe Jones needs 20-25 touches a game can only increase
his value. Assume five passes and 15-20 carries for the 20-25
touches and even with 3.6 ypc (a conservative estimate in my mind)
Jones should finish with 864-1152 rushing yards and another 400 to
500 receiving yards (figuring three receptions at 9.5 yards per in
each game). Toss in 6-8 TDs and Jones could be one of the few RB
values in your draft.


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5. Who is the Best QB in Atlanta?

"Do I want to be a starting quarterback? Yes," Johnson said. "This
year, no, I won't be. But in the end, I'll be a starting quarterback
in the NFL."

Coach Dan Reeves said Johnson will play most and perhaps all of the
second half of today's exhibition game against the Giants. His
performance last Friday, completing 14 of 15 passes for 151 yards
and a touchdown against Jacksonville, was impressive.


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Johnson is one of those forgotten men in the NFL -- does very well
in the preseason and then you never see them during the real games.
The only people this is remotely important to are those in dynasty
leagues looking for a guy that could pop up out of nowhere. Last
year Johnson completed three of his five regular season passes for
23 yards and a TD (110.8 QBR) -- not a large enough sample to be
completely sold on the guy, but indicative of potential, something
dynasty leaguers need. For the rest of you, the way Michael Vick
plays has many analysts predicting an injury before the year is out -
- it is not inconceivable that Johnson could actually be a better
fantasy option than Vick this year (at least in the passing phase of
the game). Keep him in mind IF anything happens to Vick.


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6. Raven's Pass Defense Suspect

Unlike the preseason opener, the Ravens couldn't mount any pass
rush. They registered only one sack in the game and their blitzing
linebackers were getting picked up by running backs.

That allowed Testaverde to pick apart coverages that were slow to
react. He hit Chrebet on a 27-yard pass down the middle when the
Ravens were playing cover-2, which is intended to eliminate such
throws.


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Brian Billick is very upset with his team's ability to cover deep
down the middle -- not a good sign for a team that has been scary on
defense prior to this year. If this team cannot correct this
problem by NEXT week, you need to move them way down your draft
boards. Because of their ability to stop the run, teams will be
passing on them left and right (and down the middle obviously). This
will mean lots of yards and points allowed. After losing three of
the starters in the defensive backfield, it appears that the Ravens
will face a long season defensively.


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7. Perfect Recipe for Fantasy in Buffalo

Drew Bledsoe and the offense might be about as much fun to watch
this season as old reruns of M*A*S*H. The defense might be about as
much fun to watch as old reruns of My Mother The Car.

There has been much consternation throughout this summer about the
glaring inefficiency of Buffalo's defensive line, but if Friday
night's performance is any indication, things don't look too much
better in the linebacking corps and the secondary.


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Sal Maiorana wrote this piece and I just had to include that first
paragraph as I believe it to be classic! But in truth, the perfect
recipe for fantasy success is to have an explosive offense combined
with a less than perfect defense. Buffalo seems to be sporting just
such a combination.


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8. Perfect Recipe for Fantasy in Buffalo

A few new wrinkles and a lot more playing time for the starters.
That's what the Carolina Panthers have in store for their exhibition
game against the Dallas Cowboys.

New Panthers coach John Fox has yet to show how much he's overhauled
Carolina, choosing to reveal few plays in last week's loss to the
Washington Redskins.

But he's committed to opening the playbook a little more and has
guaranteed the starters they'll play the entire first half Saturday
night against Dallas.


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This will be the perfect opportunity to see just how close the race
for the starting RB job is in Carolina -- if the starters are going
the entire first half, AND DeShaun Foster plays any in that half,
then that should be a clue as to what John Fox is thinking. It will
be nice to see where Weinke is with a full playbook at his disposal
as well. Another situation to pay attention to in this game is the
play of WR Steve Smith. Isaac Byrd has done little to separate
himself from Smith, whom many feel to be the best playmaker the
Panther's have at WR.


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9. Bengal Starter Could be Named by Monday

The decision on the Bengals' starting quarterback could be announced
as early as Monday, and tonight's preseason game at Indianapolis
could be Gus Frerotte's last and best chance to win the job.

He will get the start against the Colts in Game 2.

Frerotte is competing against Jon Kitna, who started and played well
in the preseason-opening victory at Buffalo. Frerotte came in and
threw an interception but later led a touchdown drive, throwing a
touchdown pass to Peter Warrick.


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Thus far Frerotte has done nothing to earn the job. And unless he
is spectacular against the Colts, I expect Jon Kitna to hold on to
the starting position. Those who cringe at that, need to remember
that many of Kitna's problems from a year ago could be directly
attributed to young receivers that made bad reads or had passes
bounce off their hands.


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10. Cowboy's Offense Struggles in Practice

Not two seconds after comedian Jamie Foxx strolled into camp
Thursday, lightening the mood, offensive coordinator Bruce Coslet
darkened it. Frustrated by broken plays, busted assignments and
watching the defense dominate, Coslet stopped practice and huddled
the offense. The gist of his message: The unit needed to take it
back to the defense. Because if it couldn't get it right in
practice, it won't get it right in games.


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This is not good news for those hoping for Emmitt to break Payton's
record early. But many of the problems can probably be traced to
the injury situation on the Cowboy's offensive line. Something that
should autocorrect before the season starts.


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11. Questions Surround Bronco's Offense

Another issue facing the Broncos is whether quarterback Brian Griese
can rebound from a difficult 2001 season.

Shanahan said there is little doubt Griese is the starter, but also
made it clear that the competition is still open and that Beuerlein
could get the nod if Griese falters.

"I think he (Griese) had a good camp overall," Shanahan
said. "Everybody practiced well. Like I told them, that's the first
phase. Now we go back, we take it day-by-day and if we take it in
those terms we have a chance to be better."

Wide receiver Ed McCaffrey also remains a question mark, but not to
the degree of Davis.


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And the big unanswered question is who gets the nod if Davis cannot
go (as many expect)? Right now Gary would appear to be first in
line, but rookie Clinton Portis has been so impressive he may be
able to leapfrog the veteran. The next two weeks will definitely
tell the tale though so we will keep watching for you.


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12. McMahon and Harrington to Shoulder the Load Again

Mornhinweg's agenda is to get his two young quarterbacks -- Mike
McMahon and rookie Joey Harrington -- ready for full-time duty.

Come Sept. 8 when the Lions open the season at Miami, one of the
youngsters will start, the other will be the quarterback in waiting,
and Detmer, 34, will be the backup.

And...

The Lions signed free-agent offensive lineman Ray Brown, who was cut
by the San Francisco 49ers in June. Brown, 39, is coming off his
first Pro Bowl season.


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Baltimore got torched by the Jets and Vinnie Testaverde this week.
That should tell you loads about where the Detroit passing game is.
The signing of a Pro Bowler from a year ago should help the Lions
offensive line and the more time McMahon and Harrington get in the
preseason the better for Hakim, Schroeder and even Stewart.


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13. Favre Needs Work

Favre has looked sharp during training camp, which is hardly a
surprise, but even he admits he needs more work before the start of
the season.

"I can say I'm ready, but the truth of the matter is I'm not ready,"
said Favre, who completed six of 10 passes for 53 yards and one
interception against the Eagles. "I know as a unit, we're just
not ready. Six months, seven months is a long layoff. I have to get
back into the mindset of making quick decisions and handling the
situations of the game."


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And it would help if his starting receivers would lineup and play.
Terry Glenn will miss this week's game and Robert Ferguson will be a
game-time decision. Not good for a team that will need both of
these guys healthy to compete with the Rams for the Conference
title. If you are making a decision between Favre and Culpepper in
your drafts, it is time to go with Culpepper.


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14. Houston Needs to Prove They Can Run the Ball

Surely, part of the Texans' ground troubles -- rushing for just 162
yards in their first two preseason games, 40 on one play by rookie
Jonathan Wells -- can be traced to an offensive line coping with
more cosmetic changes than Jerry Jones.

Without injured tackles Ryan Young and Tony Boselli, perennial
backups Ryan Schau and Jimmy Herndon have had to step up while
veteran Steve McKinney has been switched to center and rookies
Chester Pitts and Fred Weary adapt to the NFL game.

Still, every expansion team has to deal with depth problems, and the
more this team allows excuses to pile up, the more we'll see numbers
like those the Texans' ground game has posted. Of 65 rushing plays,
11 have resulted in negative yardage.


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Wow, I knew they were struggling, but when 17% of your rushing
attempts go backwards you just aren't going to win in this league.
It won't be long before teams start concentrating on getting to
Carr if the run game doesn't show some immediate improvement and
that could be disastrous. Though you just have to love the way the
author rubs it into Joe in his second paragraph! Hey Joe, does
THIS "step up" count? Just kidding buddy!


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15. Colt's Thin at RB

"It's pretty scary when our healthiest back has a recovering ACL,"
(Payton Manning) he said.

Manning was referring to Edgerrin James.

The anxiety level is highest for Rhodes. He had a magnetic
resonance imaging test Friday, but the team did not provide an
update late in the day.

"We may bring in a guy or two just to get us through the preseason
because we're so low on numbers with Edge not playing and Dominic
clearly out for a little while," (Bill Polian) he said.


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First, the non-disclosure is troubling. As is Polian's slip up that
tells us Rhodes will be "out for a little while". As to the premise
of bringing a back in for the preseason, who is available
for them to do that with? We have yet to see James carry the ball
in contact and despite assurances that he is "looking great" I
remain skeptical. He did undergo his surgery less than nine months
ago. And while I would love to see Ricky Watters end up here, I
don't believe it too likely at this point.


(Joe's note � As you know now, Rhodes was declared out for the year
this evening. Greg still makes some good points on the possible
backups. I don't see Stith or Gay as the viable #2 guy there.
Although to be fair, not many folks saw the undrafted rookie Dominic
Rhodes doing much there either last year)



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16. Chief's Fail to Answer Questions in Camp
It was important for Trent Green to have a good camp to erase in his
teammates' minds the memories of last year. It didn't happen.

Green, after a full off-season and an upgrade at wide receiver, had
his moments. He ripped apart the Vikings during a joint practice
session two weeks ago. But he wasn't the consistently productive
player the Chiefs need.

The absence of Gonzalez casts a pall over plans to invigorate the
passing game. As offensive coordinator Al Saunders said, "Tony's not
being here affects everything we do."

Jason Dunn simply isn't much of a threat in the passing game. The
Chiefs could overcome that if they were stronger on the outside. But
after Johnnie Morton, who appears ready to have a big season,
there's still much wishful thinking.


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Gonzalez showed up last prior to last week's game but a week later
and he still is not practicing. It doesn't matter what kind of
shape he is in, the Chiefs need him in camp with the rest of the
team. Trent Green is still an enigma -- a man who threw for over
3700 yards and 17 TDs, yet was picked 24 times. At least Kansas
City is breaking camp with healthy RBs.



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17. Saints Coming Together

With two exhibition games down and two more to go before their
regular-season opener on Sept. 8, the New Orleans Saints are showing
signs of establishing an identity.

Despite going into both of their preseason games with a limited plan
of attack that emphasizes how their players perform in certain
situations and not whether they win or lose the game, the first-
teamers appear to be rounding into form.

At the same time, the defense has been able to stop the run in the
first two games. More importantly, the first unit hasn't allowed the
big plays that killed them last season.



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This is an offense that looks like it could be explosive. Despite
the obvious unhappiness of QB Aaron Brooks and WR Joe Horn, this
team is moving the ball. Deuce McAllister is looking like a player
who should be listed in the top 12 at his position and the defense
is making big plays.


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18. Barber Expected to Play

The starters are expected to play the first half, Fassel said. RB
Tiki Barber, who missed last Saturday's game with sore ribs, is
expected to play. He'll likely see only a series or two of work
before turning the rushing duties over to Ron Dayne and Sean
Bennett, among others.


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It will be good to see Barber back in action so soon and lends
credence to the supposition that the Giants are now his team to
lead. Barber is going relatively low in most drafts and is a good
to excellent value pick. If your league awards points for catches
he is even better.


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19. Raiders Stink But Some Refuse to Admit It

Raiders cornerback Charles Woodson says some of his teammates lacked
proper motivation in Thursday's night game against the Tennessee
Titans.

Wide receiver Jerry Rice and linebacker Bill Romanowski said the
Raiders have plenty to worry about in light of back-to-back dismal
losses against the Dallas Cowboys and Titans.

Tight end Roland Williams and right offensive tackle Lincoln Kennedy
said too much is being made of the Raiders' overall poor play in
their first two exhibition games and that things need to be kept in
perspective.


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You have to admit you have a problem to correct it. Gannon,
Rice,Romanowski and Woodson know this and apparently want to correct
the problem rather than deny it exists. What is troubling and could
potentially be a portent of things to come is that the Raider's Head
Coach apparently does not. More practice isn't the answer, he said.
They just need to "practice smarter and with higher intensity."
Yeah - that should cut down on the penalties and mental mistakes.


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20. Pinkston Continues to Improve

Critics have often pointed to the Eagles' lack of a Joey Galloway or
Isaac Bruce type of receiver - a burner whose speed pressures the
defense by stretching the field - as an offensive weakness.

Pinkston has yet to achieve that kind of acceleration, but his
improvement may indicate that the Eagles' receiving needs are not as
dire as they might be.

Could Pinkston evolve into the best receiver on the roster?

"He and [James] Thrash are about evenly matched right now," (Brad -
Eagles offensive coordinator) Childress said. "Could he? Does he
have the prowess? Does he have the athleticism? Yeah. He has all
that stuff. But I think time will tell about that."


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Clearly Pinkston will take some time from Freddie Mitchell, who has
been receiving sleeper-like draft notice. Who will start opposite
Thrash is uncertain, but if it is Pinkston, then those drafting
Mitchell are selecting the wrong guy.


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21. Stokes Ready to Live Up to Hype?

Hamstring injuries sidelined Stokes for parts of the previous two
training camps, but not this year. Stokes took measures this
offseason to help preserve his health, including shutting down his
conditioning regimen a week before camp opened.

"Last year, I was doing too much. I was running too much and not
resting enough," Stokes said. "This year, I made it a point to rest
more, work out more in the weight room and play basketball, which I
love doing."

Added wide receiver Terrell Owens: "He really overworked himself
during the offseason last year and he came in and burnt his leg out,
so to speak. But we've had a great camp, especially J.J. I'm looking
for some great things out of him. He has that fire and he's ready to
play."


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JJ Stokes has always had the raw ability to be a star in the NFLbut
things have never seemed to work out. This could be his best
chance. He has an incentive-laden contract (meaning the better he
does, the BETTER he does), he is healthy and he has had a lot more
time to work on his chemistry with QB Jeff Garcia. "The fact that
he's been practicing with Jeff every day will help him
tremendously," (Head Coach Steve) Mariucci said. "My hat's off to
J.J. He came in to camp in great shape, and he's been (practicing)
all the time."


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22. Kearse Expected to be Ready for Opener

Titans defensive end Jevon Kearse, who has a damaged tricep tendon,
should be able to play in the regular season opener on Sept. 8
against Philadelphia, Coach Jeff Fisher said yesterday.

Fisher said Kearse, who did not play in Thursday night's game
against the Raiders, will have another magnetic resonance imaging
(MRI) exam in a week to 10 days to check his progress.

"He could have played last night, he probably could play [in
Minnesota]," Fisher said. "The problem is you're subjecting that
tendon, that muscle, to serious damage which could put him out for
the year."


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Good news for a defense I expect to shine this year. The Phreak
possesses an uncanny motor and with Carter on the other side should
do a lot of damage this season.


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Thanks Greg. That'll do it for tonight. See you tomorrow with
more. Have a great rest of the weekend.

Joe

--------------
Joe Bryant
www.footballguys.com

 


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