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Where Have All The Receivers Gone?

As the saying goes, it may be better to give than to receive, but a recent trend in fantasy football could make it better to run than to receive.

As fantasy players throughout the land prepare for upcoming drafts and sort through rankings, it's becoming apparent that choosing quality wide receivers is becoming a crapshoot. After the "Big Three" of Indianapolis' Marvin Harrison, San Francisco's Terrell Owens, and Minnesota's Randy Moss, there are no sure things among wideouts league-wide. No offense to players like Pittsburgh's Hines Ward - who just may be the toughest receiver in the game - but would you really feel that comfortable leaving a draft after securing Ward as your No. 1 WR? And we're not talking about only in bigger leagues; Ward is a consensus top-10 wide receiver.

For example, in 2002, Footballguys.com had the following 10 receivers ranked, in order, after the "Big Three": St. Louis' Torry Holt; San Diego's David Boston, then with Arizona; Denver's Rod Smith; New Orleans' Joe Horn; Jacksonville's Jimmy Smith; Tampa Bay's Keyshawn Johnson; Buffalo's Eric Moulds; St. Louis' Isaac Bruce; Oakland's Tim Brown; and Dallas' Terry Glenn, then with Green Bay. In 2003, the Web site has only four of those players in the top 13: Moulds (No. 4), Horn (No. 6), Holt (No. 7) and Boston (No. 9). And even those holdovers have major questions heading into 2003. Buffalo's braintrust has promised to run the ball more to take pressure off of Drew Bledsoe in 2003. Combined with the loss of Peerless Price, how will that affect Moulds? The rise of Dante Stallworth and the emergence of Deuce McAllister have to have Horn owners concerned. Torry Holt still contends with Marshall Faulk and Isaac Bruce for looks, while Boston is heading to the Chargers, where conservative coach Marty Schottenheimer has never met a fullback dive that he hasn't liked.

A victim of age and questionable triggermen, Rod Smith (No. 17) can no longer be counted on for consistent production. People are finally figuring out that Keyshawn Johnson (No. 24) isn't under-used - he's overrated. Bruce (No. 20) is on the wrong side of 30, Tim Brown (No. 42) is closer to Social Security eligibility than his prime and Terry Glenn - well, she isn't even in Footballguys.com's top 61 after yet another disappearing act in 2002. It's telling that Jerry Rice is rising on a number of rankings lists, and in some places is thought to be a top-10 pick - is that because the legend keeps chugging along, or because the next generation of receiving standouts is slow in arriving? Regardless, Oakland's duo of Brown and Rice could just as easily begin filming on "Cocoon 3" if they deliver two more 1,000-yard performances.

So who are the players to watch in 2003? The third-year receiver rule will be one to keep in mind, as a number of promising wideouts enter their third campaigns. Pittsburgh's Plaxico Burress (No. 14 in 2002, No. 5 in 2003) and Seattle's Koren Robinson (No. 37, No. 10) are top-10 candidates, while the pressure is on other third-year receivers, such as Miami's Chris Chambers and Washington's Rod Gardner to prove they belong among the elite. Others, such as Chicago's David Terrell, are facing crucial seasons that could determine whether they are contenders to be No. 1s, or simply pretenders.

Others in the top 10 have risen from relative obscurity to inclusion among the NFL's top wide receivers. Green Bay's Donald Driver wasn't on anyone's rankings a season ago and went undrafted in a number of large-league drafts; now, Brett Favre's No. 1 target is a borderline top-10 WR. Ward (No. 8) and Chicago's Marty Booker (No. 13) proved that solid 2001 seasons weren't flukes, and the Giants' Amani Toomer (No. 12) seems poised for the truly breakout season that so many have been expecting.

However, the lesson here could be to stick to the running back-first drafting philosophy, especially since the trend in the NFL is to head back toward the defense-heavy, ground-oriented squads that have dominated the playoffs in recent years. You can expect more and more fantasy owners to grab their starting backfield in the first couple of rounds, then begin to fill in their receiving corps later on, feeling that there isn't a huge drop-off in talent from No. 4 to No. 30 among receivers. How can you benefit from this possible shift in drafting strategy? If you're in a keeper league and own one of the "Big Three," you may consider trading him if someone offers you the moon and the stars. Keep in mind that the "Big Three" could go earlier and earlier in fantasy drafts this season, and could trigger a run on wideouts that could leave you with some surprise leftovers at other positions when your pick comes along. And with the available talent at WR seemingly leveling off, it may be your time to consider drafting one of the "Big Three" tight ends earlier - Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey or Todd Heap. With receivers at a premium, pinning down a highly productive TE like one of the above could take some pressure off you to reach for a receiver that you're not particularly sold on. In addition, if you don't feel you can nab one of Harrison, Owens or Moss, you may feel it necessary to make sure you secure one of the top couple of quarterbacks to help offset any point production you may suffer.

It says here that this year's crop of wide receivers is long on question marks and short on sure things. It's up to you to decide how you can turn this development into an advantage come draft day and throughout the season, but approaching it with the right research and due attention could lead to you giving your league members headaches all season long - and receiving the championship trophy at year's end.

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