After penning last week's column (Managing Risk), I decided that it would be useful to present readers with my read on the intangible risks that various skill position players face in 2003. To do so, I decided to run down the risk factors that the top 25 quarterbacks, the top 35 running backs, the top 40 wide receivers and the top 25 tight ends are potentially facing in the coming season. The set of players was selected by rank from the consensus Experts/Message Board Poll which concluded on 8/13/03. The set of "intangible" risk factors identified in part 1 were as follows - the list includes (but is not limited to): Chronic Injury; Attitude Problems; Coach's Doghouse (includes holdouts); Positional Battles (including the dreaded by-committee specter); Switching to a New Team; Offensive Line Problems; Off Field Problems (Reported Substance Abuse/Legal Issues/League Suspensions); and finally, Drafting Too Many Players from One Team.

Quarterbacks:

QB1 - Daunte Culpepper (OL Problems - 49 sacks surrendered in 2002)
QB 3 - Michael Vick (Broken Leg, Out 6-10 weeks (Not Intangible, but worth noting))
QB5 - Rich Gannon (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason; Barret Robbins/Super Bowl Vanishing Issue Remains)
QB7 - Kurt Warner (OL Problems - 46 sacks surrendered in 2002; Orlando Pace Holdout)
QB12 - Matt Hasselbeck (OL Problems - Walter Jones Holdout)
QB13 - Tom Brady (OL Problems - Injuries and Lack of Reps among Starters)
QB14 - Drew Bledsoe (OL Problems - 54 Sacks surrendered in 2002)
QB18 - Tommy Maddox (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason; Positional Battle with Charlie Batch)
QB19 - Jake Plummer (OL Problems - 46 Sacks surrendered in 2002; New Team)
QB20 - Patrick Ramsey (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason)
QB21 - Kordell Stewart (Attitude Problems (Head Case); OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason, 44 Sacks surrendered in 2002; New Team)
QB24 - Jay Fiedler (Chronic Injury - Shoulder Problems; Positional Battle)

Running Backs:

RB3 - Marshall Faulk (Chronic Injury - Knees/Ankles)
RB8 - Shaun Alexander (OL Problems - Walter Jones Holdout)
RB10 - Fred Taylor (Chronically Injured - Various Problems)
RB12 - Jamal Lewis (Chronic Injury - Knee Problems (Blowouts))
RB16 - Charlie Garner (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason, Barret Robbins/Super Bowl Vanishing Issue; Positional Battle)
RB17 - William Green (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason; Positional Battle)
RB20 - Kevan Barlow (Positional Battle; Attitude Problem (With FB Fred Beasley))
RB22 - James Stewart (Chronic Injury - Knees/Ankles)
RB23 - Anthony Thomas (OL Problems; Positional Battle; Coaches' Doghouse)
RB24 - Amos Zereoue (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason; Positional Battle; Off-Field Problems - Substance Abuse/Legal Issues (DUI as Rookie))
RB26 - Duce Staley (Positional Battle; Coaches' Doghouse; Attitude Problems (Selfish))
RB27 - Stacey Mack (OL Problems - Just Plain Awful; New Team)
RB28 - Trung Canidate (New Team; Positional Battle)
RB29 - Onterrio Smith (New Team; Positional Battle; Off-Field Problems - Legal Issues in College)
RB30 - Emmitt Smith (New Team; Positional Battle)
RB31 - Antowain Smith (OL Problems - Injuries; Coaches' Doghouse; Attitude Problems (Lazy in Offseason); Positional Battle)
RB32 - Garrison Hearst (Chronic Injury - Surgically Reconstructed Ankle; Positional Battle)
RB33 - Mike Alstott (OL Problems; Positional Battle)
RB34 - Jerome Bettis (Chronic Injury - Knees/Ankles; OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason; Positional Battle)
RB35 - Correll Buckhalter (Positional Battle)

Wide Receivers:

A note on OL Problems as to their impact on wide receivers: While OL Problems do not directly impact wide receivers, they do cause problems for the quarterbacks (limiting good throws to receivers). Also, if the running game is not respected by the opposing defense, the defenders often commit more bodies to pass coverage.

WR2 - Randy Moss (Off Field Problems - Reported Substance Abuse; Attitude Problems; OL Problems - Sacks in 2002)
WR3 - Terrell Owens (Attitude Problems (Selfish and Dismissive of Coaching))
WR5 - Plaxico Burress (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason)
WR7 - Torry Holt (OL Problems - Sacks in 2002)
WR8 - David Boston (Chronic Injury - Knees/Ankles; New Team)
WR9 - Hines Ward (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason)
WR10 - Koren Robinson (OL Problems - Walter Jones Holdout)
WR14 - Peerless Price (Injury to Vick - Again, not Intangible, but certainly Important)
WR15 - Marty Booker (OL Problems)
WR17 - Rod Smith (Chronic Injury - Knees/Ankles; OL Problems - Sacks in 2002)
WR18 - Laveranues Coles (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason; New Team)
WR19 - Jimmy Smith (Off-Field Problems - 4 game Suspension/Reported Substance Abuse; OL Problems - Sacks in 2002)
WR20 - Isaac Bruce (OL Problems - Sacks in 2002, Orlando Pace Holdout)
WR21 - Jerry Rice (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason, Barret Robbins/Super Bowl Vanishing Issue)
WR22 - Rod Gardner (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason)
WR25 - Jerry Porter (OL Problems - Poor Play in Preseason, Barret Robbins/Super Bowl Vanishing Issue; Positional Battle)
WR26 - Quincy Morgan (Positional Battle - Lots of Solid Browns' Receivers)
WR27 - Darrell Jackson (OL Problems - Walter Jones Holdout)
WR28 - Troy Brown (OL Problems - Injuries; Positional Battle - Lots of Solid Patriots' Receivers)
WR30 - Curtis Conway (Injury Problems - Many Years Since a Complete Season)
WR33 - Josh Reed (OL Problems - Sacks in 2002)
WR34 - Ashley Lelie (OL Problems - Sacks in 2002; Positional Battle)
WR36 - Charles Rogers (New Team)
WR38 - Joey Galloway (OL Problems)
WR39 - Muhsin Muhammad (Chronic Injury - Knees/Ankles)
WR40 - Antonio Bryant (OL Problems)

Tight Ends:

A note on OL Problems as to their impact on tight ends - the risk of a negative impact on tight end production is magnified in the case of tight ends, because the coaching staff might decide to keep the tight ends in on the line to improve blocking (at the cost of fantasy production: good blocks = 0 fantasy points).

TE4 - Bubba Franks (Positional Battle)
TE6 - Shannon Sharpe (OL Problems)
TE9 - Doug Jolley (OL Problems; Positional Battle)
TE10 - Billy Miller (OL Problems)
TE17 - Daniel Graham (OL Problems; Positional Battle)
TE18 - Frank Wycheck (Chronic Injury - Concussions)
TE19 - Desmond Clark (OL Problems; New Team)
TE21 - Itula Mili (OL Problems; Positional Battle)
TE22 - Jerramy Stevens (OL Problems; Off-Field Problems - Legal Issues and Reported Substance Abuse; Positional Battle)
TE24 - Jim Kleinsasser (OL Problems; Positional Battle)
TE25 - Jay Riemersma (OL Problems; New Team)

Happy Drafting! -- MW