Moving Those Aging Stars
September 6th, 2002
Time is an inexorable force. When considering the career arc of a professional football player, this is doubly true. Each year of competition puts more wear and tear on the body's muscles, ligaments, tendons and joints. Each concussion brings the end of a player's career that much closer.
As fantasy football enthusiasts, we have to be quick to discern when a player is ready to begin that inevitable, rapid decline into fantasy-football irrelevance, - before the coming drop-off is obvious to everyone. This is especially true when a franchise has drafted a player that is just beginning to really fade, because there is still time to trade that player away while the aging star still has perceived value, based on former glories. Below are some players that would best be traded away early this season, while they can net your squad some younger talent.
Quarterback
Mark Brunell, Jacksonville Jaguars:
The long erosion of the Jaguars is coming to a head in 2002, and one of the worst-hit portions of the team is the offensive line. Brunell absorbed a ton of punishment in 2001, and this line is worse than last year's in terms of protecting the quarterback. He's going to be beaten to a pulp again this year, and that won't help add years to his career - or help his performance in 2002, either. Add to that the depletion of the Jaguar's receiver's ranks with the departure of Keenan McCardell, and the ineffective play of Bobby Shaw and Patrick Johnson in the pre-season, and it adds up to a dismal season for Brunell. Do yourself a favor, trade him while you can - before he gets injured.
Running Backs
Jerome Bettis, Pittsburgh Steelers:
Bettis has the luxury of running behind one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. He has also started to steadily struggle more and more with an accumulation of injuries the past few seasons. This year, he came to mini-camp in poor condition (partly as a result of resting to overcome last year's ills). The end of his career is approaching fast, and Amos Zereoue and Chris Fuamatu-Ma-afala are breathing down his neck for playing time. Wait for Bettis to put up one or two solid games early in the season (to ensure that the players he will command in trade are valuable), and then move him for a younger back.
Emmitt Smith, Dallas Cowboys
Emmitt Smith has enjoyed an extraordinary career, and is a first ballot hall-of-famer. He is about to break the NFL all-time rushing yardage record, and he'll look decent doing it. However, once the record belongs to Emmitt Smith, Troy Hambrick will step in more and more for the Cowboys. It won't be because Smith is suddenly terrible - it will be because at this point, Hambrick is the better running back and he, not Smith, is the future for the Cowboys. This is a fairly widely agreed upon notion, but when Smith puts up a solid game or two, you should be able to find an owner who is willing to overpay for him. Base your trade talk on his reputation and the impressive game or two from this year that you'll tout while you shop Smith around your league.
Wide Receivers
Rod Smith, Denver Broncos
Rod Smith is a very talented wide receiver, but his body is starting to show signs of breaking down. Last season it was a stress fracture, and in this preseason he's struggling with sore hamstrings. Yes, he's a tough guy, and yes, he put up impressive numbers last year in spite of leg problems - but Father Time catches up with everybody. Add to the equation the return of Ed McCaffrey and Shannon Sharpe to the line-up, and I think Rod Smith's receptions go down by 20% or so, which drops out of the top ten WR's, perhaps down into the 20's. Yet, most people consider him top ten at this point. Trade him away for a younger top ten wide receiver with more prospective upside, and you'll be happy you did.
Muhsin Muhammed, Carolina Panthers
Just how bad can things get in Carolina in this season? If the Rodney Peete maneuver is any indication, 2002 could be even worse than last year. Add to the ineptitude at head coach and quarterback the increasingly creaky limbs of Muhsin Muhammed, and you have a recipe for a bust-type year. Even though he's only rated in the low 20's to high 30's on most people's lists, Marty Booker, James Thrash, Hines Ward and Peerless Price all sound much more attractive than Muhammed. Try to move him before the wheels come off and the engine drops out in Carolina.
The above list is not meant to be all-inclusive, but rather highlights the type of fading player that you should be looking to trade away. Go over your roster, and consider who's looked strong and who's looked lame during the preseason. You'll probably find at least one player you could trade away for a better prospect as the season begins to get underway.
Mark Wimer
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