Don't Bail Out on Your Sleepers Yet!
(Unless you have a good reason)
September 22nd, 2002
Almost every savvy fantasy owner has a few "sleepers" or "projects" on their roster in the early part of the NFL season - a long-shot rookie prospect, or perhaps a veteran returning from injury you selected in the late rounds of the draft. These guys are players that you expected to out-perform the value of the slot where you drafted them. Anyway, now that the regular season has rolled around, there are free agents available in your league making a splash. Let's just say that you are tempted to drop that rookie wide receiver (Antonio Bryant?) and acquire the free agent who is grabbing headlines this week (for example, Patrick Johnson in Jacksonville).
Don't do it yet, at least not without a good reason to do so. Two weeks of the regular season is simply not enough time to make an informed decision in the vast majority of cases. Let's consider the examples cited above - Patrick Johnson in Jacksonville vs. Antonio Bryant in Dallas. On the Footballguys weekly stats review of overall fantasy points scored by position, Patrick Johnson ranks 17th, and Bryant is clear down at 45th. It seems like a no-brainer to drop Bryant and snatch up Johnson if he's available. But look a little closer.
Johnson is ranked #17 largely on the strength of his two touchdowns (out of 5 receptions for 115 yards). Bryant is down at #45, having notched no touchdowns yet this season.
However, Bryant has seen more balls (7 receptions for 134 yards) in his two games, and is clearly the #2 wide receiver in Dallas. The guy across from him, Joey Galloway, has caught 11 balls for 157 yards and 1 touchdown. Emmitt Smith has 3 catches for 16 yards. These three have accounted for 21 of Quincy Carter's 27 completions (78%), and Bryant's share of the passing game thus far, 7 receptions, represents 26% of Carter's completions.
Johnson may be #2 in Jacksonville, but he's competing for the ball with Jimmy Smith - 13 catches for 187 yards and 1 td - and Fred Taylor - 10 catches for 80 yards. These three have accounted for 28 of Brunell's 47 completed passes (60%), and Johnson's share of the passing game thus far, 5 receptions, represents 11% of Brunell's completions.
Brunell has thrown a lot more passes this season. But, remember Quincy Carter and the Cowboys had that miserable start to their season in Houston, where nothing on offense went right.
So what do all these numbers and percentages mean? It appears to this observer that Antonio Bryant has a more significant role in the Cowboy's offense than Patrick Johnson has in Jacksonville. While the number of touchdowns any player produces are notoriously hard to predict over a season (see Keyshawn Johnson's stats from 2001 for the most extreme example of this), the number of chances (touches) in which a player gets the opportunity to score is more amenable to prediction. Measured by this standard, fantasy owners who have Bryant on their roster should be patient for a few more weeks - he should have ample opportunity to repay their patience and chalk up some touchdowns (and large chunks of yardage) in the weeks to come.
Sometimes, though, a "sleeper" just doesn't pan out. Certain guys never crack the starting lineup, or when they do get a shot, they stink up the joint. This year's prime example of a bust is Jonathan Wells. It's not that he hasn't gotten the opportunity to play. He just has done absolutely nothing with these opportunities. 1.4 yards per carry is the average amount of yardage he has gained on his 15 carries this season (21 yards). Folks, that just isn't going to get it done in the NFL. He has looked like a slower, less talented version of Ron Dayne (who is ahead of Wells, production-wise, with 17 carries for 28 yards - 7 more than Wells!).
When you see something like this on your roster, it's time to swallow your pride (and your visions of glory for that particular player), and get rid of the bum. The chances he will suddenly become a fantasy star after playing like a total dog over the course of pre-season and two regular season games are very small indeed.
So, when the fever to start playing the waiver wire strikes you, take some time to closely analyze each move. Some of the moves that look attractive now might cause you grief down the road. Others may lead you to the championship. Just make sure you have a good reason to make the transactions that you are considering, rather than acting impulsively out of frustration or panic.
Mark Wimer
Exclusive to Footballguys.com