Quick Hits - The Ultimate Q&A Session
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Posted 08/30 by Jason Wood - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Quick Hits: The Ultimate
Q&A Session
By Jason Wood, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
With a week until opening weekend and the majority
of drafts set to go down across the country, we thought it would be prudent to
prepare a final Q&A of Quick Hits, the hot button issues on your mind as
you make final preparations for your draft.
Special thanks to David Dodds, Chris Smith, Tom
Merrick and the message board Sharks for their valuable help in preparing what
we hope to be the final word on the issues you care about.
Editor's Note: Jason spent 25+ hours in the last 3 days to make this document a reality. He did this in addition to juggling his fulltime gig, his family life and other commitments. This document and other efforts like them are the reason Joe and I have this website. Thank you Jason for your sacrifice to bring this to the community that is Footballguys.com.
Arizona Cardinals
Q: Why did the Cardinals signs
Emmitt Smith? Is he or Marcel Shipp worth drafting?
A: We already know the Cardinals are the worst run franchise
in the league (the Bengals stepped out of that race this offseason) and the
Emmitt Smith signing is just the latest example. The Smith signing was as much
about publicity and trying to draw up fan interest as on field considerations.
Unfortunately for fantasy owners, it clouds the role of Marcel Shipp who showed
enough talent last year to have been considered a solid sleeper pick at a
position that lacks much depth year in, year out.
In any event, we see Smith getting the bulk of carries with Shipp
being relegated to a 3rd down, change of pace role. Keep an eye on
Shipp as he could flourish if Emmitt Smith gets injured, running behind that
massive offensive line.
Q: Who�s going to catch the ball for
Arizona? What�s the latest on the depth chart at receiver?
A: Exiting training camp, Larry Foster and Bryan Gilmore sit
atop the depth chart. But we see no reason why Arizona won�t get all of its receivers involved
over the course of the season, particularly first round pick Bryant Johnson
(who was slowed in camp) and fellow rookie Anquan Boldin (who the team insists
will play a versatile, �Slash� type role). Don�t count on any of these
receivers at the outset, but know that Jeff Blake promises, �"I didn't
have a star receiver then (in Cincinnati), and I don't have one now. But I
will. Someone will step forward." Draft accordingly.
Q: Is there anyone on the Cardinals
worth drafting as a starter?
A: Yes, we believe that Freddie Jones, the talented tight
end, will get enough looks this year to warrant consideration as a starting
fantasy tight end. Jones is by far the most accomplished receiver on the team
and Jeff Blake seems comfortable with him. We currently project Jones to finish
11th among TEs,
but he�s only five points (or one touchdown catch) away from entering our
projected top ten. Drafting Jones late could represent good value.
Atlanta Falcons
Q: How long is Vick
supposed to miss?
A: Reports are mixed. What we�re sure of is that
Vick broke his right fibula and will AT LEAST be out for the first four games
of the season. But team doctor Andrew Bishop believes there was mild ligament
damage, which cannot be assessed until the bone heals and the cast comes off
(six weeks after injury). If the break was clean, Vick should be able to return
shortly after the cast is removed, but beyond that we have to do the dreaded
�wait and see�. We�re currently projecting Vick to play in the final ten
games, and would recommend drafting him if your bench is large enough.
Q: Is Doug Johnson any
good?
A: Johnson is a classic, drop back quarterback
who has been in the Atlanta system for three years
already. Johnson saw limited action last year and flourished once (257 yards
passing, 1 TD passing, 1 rush TD against the Giants) and floundered once (150
yards passing and 3 Ints against Tampa). We believe Johnson
will be adequate and able to get the ball to his primary receivers (i.e., Price,
Finneran, Crumpler and Dunn).
�
Q: Can Peerless Price
excel this year?
A: Historically, free agent receivers struggle
in their first seasons with a new team. But the argument can be made that very
few free agent receivers were as talented (and in their prime) as Price (and David
Boston for that matter) when they changed teams. While we expect Price to
finish solidly in the top 20
this season, we would caution against taking him as a number one because of
the fact he�s moving teams AND must adjust to not one, but two new
quarterbacks. We would be remiss to not point out that Price has been
exceptional this preseason with Johnson under center.
Q: Dunn or Duckett?
A: Dunn, until Duckett proves
otherwise. Duckett, the team�s 2001 first round draft choice, will have to
do better than 2.2 yards per carry (while Dunn has averaged 4.3 yards per
carry) and improve his blocking and receiving before he can reasonably be
expected to push Dunn for the feature back role.
Q: Who will return kicks
for the Falcons this year?
A: The return game hasn�t been decided yet but
MarTay Jenkins, Allen Rossum, Terrence Edwards and LaTarence Dunbar are the
leading candidates. If preseason is any indication, Dunbar has been the main
kickoff returner, while Rossum has been the most effective punt returner.
Q: Is Brian Finneran
worth drafting?
A: Depends on the size of your league. Finneran
was one of the surprising stories at receiver last year and earned himself a
new contract this offseason. That said, he is now the number two on a team that
won�t be too pass happy (particularly when Vick returns from injury). Finneran
currently ranks 57th in our latest rankings.�
Baltimore Ravens
Q: So is
it Kyle Boller or Chris Redman?
A: The �official� decision won�t
be made for a few days, but all signs point to Kyle Boller being given the job after
his blistering showing in the final preseason game (7 of 9 for 99 yards and two
scores). Combine that with a lackluster performance from Redman, and it looks
like the �Boller Era� starts earlier than planned. �Word is that Baltimore will
announce their starter Saturday 8/30.
Q: Will
Todd Heap be a fantasy stud regardless of who starts at QB?
A: Todd Heap is the top rated tight end in the
latest rankings, and is no lower than third in any Footballguys projections.
Considering that most of us expect both Boller and Redman to play this year, we
feel Heap is talented enough to excel with either player at the helm. Remember
that Heap is probably the best receiver on the team, and has a rare ability to
get open in the middle of the field; something either young QB will come to
appreciate.�
Q: So
will Travis Taylor finally �break out�?
A: Opinions vary on Travis Taylor
but in aggregate he stands as the 29th ranked WR on
our board. Taylor has
talent, but has only shown glimpses of that talent. Obviously he must show more
consistency to be counted on as a fantasy contributor. Much of a receiver�s
success comes down to rapport with the quarterback, so we�ll have to watch and
see if Taylor develops
chemistry with Redman and/or Boller. Taylor shouldn�t
be your week one starter, but he could easily become an every week starter if
things fall into place.
Q: Can
the Ravens defense return to dominant form this year?
A: There�s no reason the Baltimore
Ravens shouldn�t excel on defense again in 2003. Ray Lewis is healthy and
remains a difference maker. The addition of Terrell Suggs to a linebacking
corps of Lewis, Boulware, Hartwell and Brown is daunting. The secondary is
stacked with Chris McAllister, Ed Reed, Corey Fuller and Gary Baxter as well.
We currently rank Baltimore 4th
among fantasy defenses and 131st
overall in performance leagues.
Q: I
heard Marcus Robinson might start for the Ravens, is this true?
A: Incorrect. It was announced on August 25th
that Travis Taylor and Frank Sanders would remain the starters, with Robinson
as the 3rd receiver.
Buffalo Bills
Q: How do you rank Drew Bledsoe 13th
when he finished fifth last season?
A: While Drew Bledsoe was extremely effective last season,
we do not see him as a surefire fantasy starter this season for several
reasons. One, the team has the most pronounced pass/run ratio in the league
last year and everyone from HC Gregg Williams to Bledsoe himself has promised
to even that out. Two, Bledsoe lost players that accounted for almost 50% of
his receiving targets this offseason. We still think Bledsoe will throw for
over 3,700 yards passing and
22 touchdowns, good enough to be one of the better backup fantasy QBs in
2003.
Q: Should I feel comfortable relying
on Travis Henry as my lead RB this year?
A: Anyone who watched Henry last season knows that this guy
is a force to be reckoned with. With the team�s commitment to running the ball,
and a full year of tackle Mike Williams in the fold, we think Henry could
easily end the year as one of the top fantasy players. While his fumbling
issues are a mild cause for concern, there�s no league that Henry shouldn�t be
considered a first rounder
Q: Isn�t McGahee going to threaten
Henry�s playing time?
A: We don�t think so. First of all, McGahee has been put on
the PUP list meaning he cannot practice with the team for the first six weeks.
Second, we feel McGahee was drafted as insurance against Henry who would be in
line to demand a sizable contract extension if he duplicates his 2002 campaign.
McGahee could definitely factor into the Bills� plans in 2004, but Henry owners
shouldn�t sweat it this year.
Q: It�s an odd numbered year,
shouldn�t I avoid Eric Moulds?
A: It�s true that in 1999 and 2001, Moulds was a fantasy
disappointment (23rd and 33rd, respectively) while he was
a stud in 1998, 2000 and 2002 (4th, 14th, and 4th,
respectively)�but unless you�re superstitious we wouldn�t put much weight in
that �trend�. Moulds was dominant last year, and will probably be targeted even
more with the departure of Peerless Price. While a few Footballguys might
agree with you, clearly the majority don�t. �Moulds ranks 4th on the latest
rankings sheet and should be considered an elite fantasy option at receiver.
Moulds has been on a mission this preseason catching 13 balls for 157 yards and
a score in limited action.
Q: Can Josh Reed duplicate what
Peerless Price did in 2002?
A: While we think Reed is a talented young receiver, who
could well turn into a top fantasy option in time, we�re not sure this is the
year. Reed isn�t the same type of receiver as Price, and the latest reports
suggest that the team is considering playing Reed in the slot (the third
receiver) because it better suits his abilities. WR Bobby Shaw will also be in
the mix. While that hasn�t been made official, we expect Reed will have some
solid games and some forgettable ones. We rank Reed 45th this
season and suggest you draft accordingly.
Q: Will the Buffalo Defense improve this
season?
A: It would be difficult for Buffalo NOT to improve
considering the team allowed 133 yards rushing per game and had only ten
interceptions. The addition of Takeo Spikes (19th on our LB board)
and Jeff Posey (37th) to go along with London Fletcher (4th
best fantasy LB) gives them a solid LB corps. Sam Adams and Pat Williams anchor
the middle and young Nate Clements and Antoine Winfield are two of the best
young corners in the AFC.
Carolina Panthers
Q: Who is going to be the starting
quarterback?
A: The signing of Jake Delhomme this offseason made him the
�en vogue� pick to start for the Panthers, but he simply didn�t do enough in
training camp to earn the job outright. Veteran Rodney Peete remains at the top
of the depth chart, which makes sense because the Panthers want a QB �not to
lose games� versus trying to win them. Expected by many to be out of the
running, Chris Weinke has been arguably the most impressive of the trio having
led the Panthers to all four of their offensive touchdowns this preseason. From
a fantasy perspective, this screams �AVOID.�
Q: Stephen Davis, fantasy stud or
washed up veteran?
A: We�re betting on the former, not the latter. Stephen
Davis didn�t meet expectations last year in Washington but people forget that he averaged
4.0 yards per carry last year despite being on an offense that he did not seem suited for. Anytime you hear a team�s offensive coordinator talking about
getting a back close to 400 carries, you should keep your eyes open. While
we�re not projecting Davis to hit such a high mark (because DeShaun Foster is
an excellent backup and should get some touches), we do expect him to get 20+
carries a game and be a fantasy force with 1,316 yards rushing and 10 TDs.
Q: What�s the receiving corps
looking like with Kevin Dyson being lost for the season?
A: If the Panthers do settle on a quarterback and let him throw it, Muhsin
Muhammad and Steve Smith look to be the team�s primary pass catchers. Muhammad
is now three years removed from his 100 catch season but is effective when
healthy. Steven Smith, the explosive yet diminutive return man, played
surprisingly well last year when thrust into the starting lineup and should be
good for an occasionally impressive game yet again. We forecast both receivers
to eclipse the 800 yard mark
and score at least five touchdowns.
In keeper leagues, keep an eye on Walter Young, the 6�5� 220
pound rookie from Illinois who has been the best receiver in
Panthers camp.
Q: With Wesley Walls gone, who is
going to play tight end?
A: Rookie Mike Seidman, an adept receiver but poor blocker,
and veteran Kris Mangum will share tight end duties this year. We don�t expect
either to offer much of a fantasy contribution.
Q: Is John Kasay in danger of losing
the place kicking job?
A: According to camp reports, John Kasay has thus far held
off Shayne Graham. Graham is set to make a fraction of what Kasay will though,
which could prove a factor if the battle is close after the final preseason
game. We recommend avoiding either prospect though, given that neither has
shown the ability to hit long distance field goals with consistency.
Chicago Bears
Q: Is Anthony Thomas the starter or
not?
A: Thomas will be the opening day
starter, but Adrian Petersen has impressed enough to factor heavily into the
rotation. According to Kordell Stewart, he wouldn�t be surprised to see the
Bears have three players with 500 rushing yards or more at season�s end,
himself included. And HC Jauron said of a committee approach, �I don't think
that's farfetched if they keep progressing and playing like they did.� We
wouldn�t recommend the A -Train as a fantasy starter, and currently rank him 30th.
Q: Should I avoid Kordell Stewart at
all costs?
A: Not so fast. In most leagues, at least 20-24 QBs will be
drafted (starters and backups), and last time I checked there are never more
than 32 starting quarterbacks suiting up on any given Sunday. We don�t think Stewart
has the offensive line, weapons or system to warrant consideration as an every
week fantasy starter, but you could do worse at the backup spot. Kordell will
run this year, and 400-500 yards and a handful of TDs should be a given. The
latest rankings put Kordell at
23rd, making him draftable in the late rounds as your backup.
Q: Is Marty Booker worth a high pick
even with Stewart and Grossman at the helm?
A: Absolutely. Consider that Booker has put up back to back
top 15 seasons despite having a QB carousel that include Jim Miller, Chris Chandler,
and Shane Matthews. Booker is sure handed, was among the league leaders in
plays of 25 yards or more, and should again be the most targeted player on the
team, by far. With the ground game so uncertain, we think Booker represents
good value on draft day.
Q: Can the Bears be any worse than
last year?
A: Any season that John Shoop is your offensive coordinator,
you have the chance to reach new lows. In all seriousness, if there is a less
creative, less inventive coordinator in the league we haven�t heard of him. On
top of the poor play calling, last year the team was decimated by injuries and
unfortunately this season isn�t shaping up much better. It is looking to be
another long, long season in the Windy City.
Q: Why isn�t Rabih Abdullah being
considered for the RBBC mix?
A: If you look at Abdullah�s
preseason stats, he�s been the most consistently productive rusher for the
Bears. However, he also lost three fumbles in a three game span and may in fact
be in danger of losing his roster spot as a result, much less compete for the
starting tailback job.
Q: Is there a better fantasy
linebacker than Brian Urlacher?
A: Maybe
just one. Only Ray Lewis projects as a better fantasy LB this season in our
view, Urlacher should once again be a tackling machine.
Cincinnati Bengals
Q: Do you guys really think Jon Kitna
will be the starter all season long?
A: Yes, in fact we do. As talented as Carson Palmer is,
anyone who has seen him in preseason action understands that he needs time to
mature. Marvin Lewis is doing a lot of good things thus far, and we don�t
expect him to get impatient and rush Palmer even if the Bengals are out of
contention early.
Q: Chad Johnson is out of his
mind with all this, �1,800 yards� talk, right?
A: Considering that Jerry Rice�s 1,848 yards receiving in
1995 stands as the most in NFL history (and the only time anyone ever went over
the 1,800 yard mark), we feel pretty confident in telling you not to count on
Chad Johnson approaching that mark. However, we do believe he has the makings
of an excellent fantasy receiver and expect him to finish the year solidly in the top 15.
Q: Who is going to start opposite Chad Johnson?
A: Peter Warrick, the former Seminole Heisman hopeful, will
start opposite Johnson. Warrick has largely been a disappointment as a pro, but
reports out of camp show him in the best shape of his career (playing at a
career low 190 pounds). For fantasy purposes, we view Warrick as little more than a fourth or
fifth receiver, but for those who award return points, Warrick is expected
to return punts this year which would increase his value accordingly.
Q: So Matt Schobel is a sleeper at
TE, right?
A: Not so fast, our latest rankings show Schobel as a
modestly productive tight end, not worth drafting in leagues with 12 or fewer
owners. But it could be even worse than that. According to the latest depth
chart (released Monday, August 25th) � �Brewer moved ahead of Matt
Schobel into the third spot behind starter Reggie Kelly and second-stringer
Tony Stewart.� We would pass on Schobel until he gets out of the coaches
doghouse.
Q: What about Kelley Washington?
A: In the most recent depth chart released Monday, August 25th,
rookie Kelley Washington has ascended to the 3rd spot on the
receiver depth chart over veterans TJ Houshmandzadeh and Danny Farmer. Washington has been more style than substance
in his boisterous collegiate career, but few receivers have his physical
combination of speed and strength.
Q: Who is Corey Dillon�s backup?
A: Brandon Bennett is Dillon�s backup and would be in line
to get the first crack at the job should Dillon fall prey to injury. Rudi Johnson
and Ray Jackson are battling for the 3rd tailback spot, as we don�t
expect the Bengals to carry more than three tailbacks.
Cleveland Browns
Q: Is William Green the
guy we saw in the last seven weeks of 2002 or the bust we saw early in the
season?
A: William Green was lucky last year. His early
season performance was so bad that he might not have reclaimed the starting
role had Jamel White not gotten hurt. However, upon being re-inserted into the
lineup, he rattled off seven weeks of impressive performances, carrying the ball
20 times or more in each contest and averaging 104 yards rushing. While we�re
not ready to anoint Green a top 10 player, he has the talent and should be a solid RB2 in 2003.
Q: Do you expect Kelly
Holcomb to start for the entire season, and if so, will he be a good fantasy
prospect?
A: Yes we do, barring injury of course. Kudos to
HC Butch Davis for making what many observers felt was the obvious choice
despite the fact that team�s don�t generally like having $6 million players on
the bench. Holcomb had to demonstrably outperform Couch during the preseason to
wrest the job away, and by all accounts he did just that. We don�t expect the
Browns to have a short leash with Holcomb, and with a cadre of promising
receivers (Quincy Morgan, Kevin Johnson, Andre Davis, Andre King, Dennis
Northcutt), Holcomb should flourish. We�re not suggesting you go out and draft
Holcomb as a fantasy starter, but he would make a fine backup in larger leagues
and could have some big weeks, particularly if the Browns have to get into some
shootouts given how bad their defense is projected to be.
Q: Quincy Morgan, a 1,000 yard receiver?
A: Quincy Morgan is as solid a
young receiver as we�ve seen in awhile. He was targeted heavily by both Couch
and Holcomb last year and finished the season averaging more than 17 yards per
catch, one of the best averages in the league. He�s a game breaker who is the
unquestioned WR1 in Cleveland this season. Considering
he was just 36 yards short of 1,000 last season, we are very confident he�ll
reach that target this year, and then some.�
That said, Morgan is one of the more controversial receivers this year,
ranking as high as 12th
and as low as 38th.
Q: Just how bad is the
defense going to be?
A: Well let�s see. The team jettisoned its entire starting linebacker corps
from a season ago. Courtney Brown has been unimpressive when healthy, and hurt
all too often. Gerard Warren has shown a poor work ethic and limited
development. And the secondary has exactly zero proven playmakers. Our 23rd
place ranking is probably overly generous judging by the preseason development,
or lack thereof.
Dallas Cowboys
Q: Who will call the plays this
season?
A: Parcells is expected to call the plays initially, but he
has left the door open to hand off that assignment when he sees fit. The most
likely candidate on his current staff would be Sean Payton, who called the
plays for the Giants until midway through last season. �Offensive Coordinator�
Maurice Carthon is inexperienced and more of Parcells� right hand man than a
game day coach at this juncture.
Q: Quincy Carter or Chad Hutchinson?
A: Earlier this week, Bill Parcells named Quincy Carter his
starting quarterback. While it was no ringing endorsement, it was definitive, �I do think Carter
gives us the best chance right now," Bill Parcells said, "Hopefully,
he will continue to improve as he has through the course of the camp."
Q: Dallas� receivers, are they any good?
A: A resounding YES. Joey Galloway, who appears
healthy and motivated, remains wildly fast and sure handed. Presuming he can
continue his healthy ways, he should run under his share of Carter passes this
year. Antonio Bryant, a second year receiver, had arguably the most impressive
metrics of all the rookie pass catchers last year and could also be in line for
substantially better stats when/if Dallas gets consistent
production from the quarterback position. And Terry Glenn, who will backup the
starters, is capable of putting up big numbers when motivated; and if Parcells
can�t motivate him, no one can. Our relatively low rankings (Galloway�38th,
Bryant�48th) are more reflective of our expectations for the quarterback
position.
Q: Troy Hambrick or Adrian Murrell?
A: If there were any doubts about who might start at
tailback for the Cowboys, they were most likely put to rest with Thursday�s
impressive performance by Hambrick. In one half of play, primarily against the
Raiders starting defensive front four Hambrick averaged 5.4 yards per carry and
scored two touchdowns. Murrell, who had been out of football for several years,
is one of �Parcells� guys� and was brought in to light a fire under Hambrick.
Look for Hambrick to have almost
1,000 yards rushing; nothing Earth shattering but reasonable considering
all the question marks on the offensive line.
Q: Who will be kicking them through
the uprights in Big D this year?
A: Dallas waived Ola Kimrin on August 23rd,
and Billy Cundiff will remain the team�s place kicker this year. Considering
Cundiff was only 12 of 19 last year, we wouldn�t recommend you place your
fantasy hopes on him regardless of the situation.
Detroit Lions
Q: Can Joey Harrington emerge as a
fantasy dark horse this year?
A: New head coach Steve Mariucci has some experience molding
quarterbacks (see Brett Favre and Jeff Garcia) and Joey Harrington has the
physical makeup and college pedigree to suggest he will be a solid NFL starter
for years to come. But these things take time, and with the Lions having so
many question marks at receiver, RB and on the offensive line, we don�t see
Harrington being surrounded with enough talent to make him a viable fantasy
option.
Q: James Stewart ranked 20th,
do you really think he�s a fantasy starter this year?
A: Our rankings were submitted prior to the last preseason
game, when Stewart suffered a separated shoulder and should be out for three to
four weeks according to the latest reports.�
That�s a shame because we felt Stewart was a valuable pick this year
considering how late you could grab him. Take a look around the NFL and you�ll
find question marks at the RB position on more teams than not. In Stewart,
you�re probably not getting a guy who�s going to surprise with a Top-10 season,
but he�s consistent, is effective in the red zone, is a solid receiver, and
provides a veteran presence on a young offensive unit.
Q: Ouch! James Stewart separated his
shoulder, who�s going to �shoulder� the load if he�s out for awhile?
A: The backup position hasn�t been decided, but has come
down to three backs: Avon Cobourne, Autry Denson and Shawn Bryson. If preseason
game action is any indication, rookie Avon Cobourne (Big East�s leading rusher
from West Virginia) will get a shot at the starting spot. Cobourne
started slowly this preseason (due to an injury on his first play from
scrimmage) but has put together a nice YPC to go along with several big
receptions in the last two games. Shawn Bryson was behind Stewart on many depth
charts, but he�s coming off his 2nd major knee surgery and averaging
less than 2 yards per carry (despite rushing against 2nd and 3rd
string defenders).� Friday, coach
Mariucci said, "I don't know who the lead dog will be, it very well could
be a running back by committee."
Q: Can Charlie Rogers surpass the
1,000 yard mark?
A: Can he? Certainly, but will he is the question? Despite
the fact that rookie wide receivers rarely go over the 1,000 yard mark (it�s
happened just five times in the last 20 years), that doesn�t mean you should
avoid rookie receivers entirely. Remember that Rogers enters the NFL with as high a grade
as any receiver in the past decade, and he should immediately step into the
number one role on a team with a talented young QB with a head coach known for
developing solid passing attacks. We think Rogers has a decent shot at 800 yards or so, with upside
if he gets off to a fast start.
In dynasty leagues, Rogers should be one of the top picks in
this year�s rookie draft.
Q: Bill Schroeder or Az-Zahir Hakim?
A: �Probably
Schroeder, although we�re not sure either is a sure bet to play a full 16 game
schedule, much less start the entire year. Az-Zahir Hakim was expected to play
the slot this year, but he required minor knee surgery a few weeks ago and is
questionable for the first game of the regular season. Meanwhile Bill
Schroeder, who has had a productive offseason (9 catches for 131 yards) sat out
the last game with hamstring issues, a familiar malady for those who have
chronicled Schroeder�s career.
Denver Broncos
Q: How has Jake Plummer looked?
A: Jake Plummer has looked fairly good by most accounts this
preseason, enough to get the Broncos faithful to start fantasizing about a deep
playoff run. We expect Plummer to have his share of ups and downs, but the
surrounding talent should allow him to throw more touchdowns than interceptions
this year, for only the second time in his career. There�s no way we would feel
comfortable having Plummer as our designated fantasy starter all season, but as
a backup he�s worth taking a flier on. Plummer has never lacked the talent, but
he�s lacked the decisiveness required of his position; we�re not sure Shanahan
can teach that but time will tell.
Q: Is there a better young running
back in the NFL than Clinton Portis?
A: It�s tough to argue against what he did last season, and
that�s why Portis is solidly entrenched as our 2nd ranked player
overall. He�s added some muscle, and once again will run behind a line that
seems to open holes for anyone that gets carries. If the team involves Portis
in the receiving game more as promised, he could end the year as the top rated
fantasy player.
Q: Ashley Lelie or Ed McCaffrey?
A: Everyone from local beat writers to John Clayton at ESPN
rave about Lelie upon seeing him practice. Although McCaffrey is healthy and
may start the year as the �starter� opposite Rod Smith, few observers believe
that McCaffrey will come close to the full year numbers that Lelie puts
together. We expect Lelie to emerge this year, with nearly 1,000 yards receiving and 6
touchdowns and would recommend adding him as your third or fourth receiver,
someone that could be a starter for you by midseason.
Q: Does Shannon Sharpe have anything
left in the tank?
A: Shannon Sharpe is one of the best conditioned athletes in
the NFL and appears healthy after an injury derailed yet another fantastic
season in 2002. Sharpe ranks 6th
in our projections, and see those numbers as easily attainable.
Q: Who�s going to play cornerback
for the Broncos? Don�t they need to stop those high powered AFC West opponents?
A: Lenny Walls has earned one of the starting nods, while Deltha O�Neal should
return as the other starter. The team has issues though because neither player
would be mistaken for an elite corner. Backups Kenny Herndon and Willie
Middlebrooks are even more offensive. With a tough schedule that includes
division battles against the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders, the Broncos playoff
aspirations could be derailed by the defense, no matter how successful the
offense turns out.
Green Bay Packers
Q: Robert Ferguson or Javon Walker?
A: Robert Ferguson was named the starter opposite Donald
Driver last week, in a move that surprised very few observers who had attended
Packers camp. Ferguson finally appears to have gotten it
together after two forgettable years, and has earned high praise from both his
coaching staff and Brett Favre, which may ultimately be the most important.
Considering how late Ferguson is going in drafts (sometimes not
being drafted at all), he is an outstanding end game pick in our opinion.
Q: Does Brett Favre have another
year in him?
A: Packers fans breathed a collective sigh of relief when
Favre shuttered talk of retirement to return for the 2003 season. You know
Favre is one of the all time greats when a 3,600 yard, 27 touchdown season is
considered a down year. From a fantasy perspective, Favre finished 11th,
another solid year albeit not at the level people have come to expect. With the
defense looking suspect, we think Favre will be slinging the ball even more
this year, and with Ferguson maturing, a return to 4,000 yards
shouldn�t be counted out. Favre
ranks 8th in the latest rankings and can be counted on as your
fantasy starter in 2003.
Q: Ahman Green is ranked 12th
by Joe & David, but top 10 by most of the staffers, what gives?
A: First of all, very little separates the projections for RB9 and RB12 this year, so a
few more carries or touchdowns and Green is right into the top 10. The most
important point in evaluating Ahman Green in our view is that he�s historically
not gotten as many looks in the red zone as other elite fantasy prospects. The Green Bay offense with Favre at the helm
throws in the red zone more than most teams, thus limiting Green�s ability to
have high double digit scores. In performance leagues Green remains a solid
selection and would make an outstanding RB2 if you were so lucky.
Q: Is Wesley Walls a backup only, or
should I reconsider Bubba Franks as my starting TE?
A: We currently project Bubba Franks 7th among fantasy TEs,
but that amounts to a mere 73 fantasy points. Should Wesley Walls vulture one
or two touchdowns, Franks no longer finishes in the top 10. Considering that
initial reports from Green Bay suggest that they intend to try to
get Walls as many plays from scrimmage as Franks, Bubba Franks could see his
total production diminish. Making matters worse, Franks is more reliant on
touchdowns for his production than any other elite fantasy TE. We wouldn�t
reach for Franks this year, but don�t panic and completely avoid him if he�s
available late and sits atop your remaining options.
Q: I�m having trouble understanding
why Green Bay�s defense keeps going fairly high in most drafts?
A: Probably because most people don�t pay much attention to analyzing team
defenses in their draft preparation. While Green Bay�s defense has usually been a force,
we�re not sure this year is as encouraging and rank the Packers 17th.
DT Gilbert Brown has a torn bicep, Vonnie Holliday departed in free agency,
there is very little experience in the linebacking corps, and Al Harris (the
Eagles nickel back in 2002) will start opposite Mike McKenzie. Depth is also a
concern.
Houston Texans
Q: Can David Carr survive another
year behind the Texans line?
A: Say what you will about David Carr as a fantasy player,
but he proved that he�s tough as nails last year, getting sacked more times
than anyone in the history of the league. Unfortunately not much has improved
on the line and Carr will be running for cover all over again. It�s a shame
because Carr would otherwise make a great dynasty QB. Luckily for Texans fans,
the team wisely drafted Dave Ragone and Drew Henson as backups, so the position
should be one of strength even if Carr is lost in his 2nd year of
baptism by sack.
Q: Will Andre Johnson be the Texans�
best receiver?
A: If we were building a team, there�s no question that
Andre Johnson would be the Texans� receiver on our list. However, in terms of
fantasy production, we see Corey Bradford as being neck and neck with him this
year. Bradford has a year (and two offseasons) of
working with David Carr on timing and routes, and should be oft targeted.
Johnson has impressed, particularly for a rookie, but remember that rookie
receivers take time to mature, particularly on a team that should struggle as
much as the Texans.
Q: Was Billy Miller�s success a
fluke last year, and will Joppru steal touches?
A: Don�t worry about Joppru, the highly touted receiving
tight end out of Michigan, because he had surgery to correct
a hernia and is out indefinitely. The only reason Billy Miller won�t have
another productive year is if David Carr looks to him less, perhaps focusing
more on the trio of receivers, but we think there will be plenty of passes
thrown Miller�s way, he�s a safety valve in the middle of the field for a QB on
the run.
Q: Is Stacey Mack the unquestioned
starter?
A: For early in the season? Yes. For the whole season, we�re just not
sure. Mack was brought in to help solidify a problem area in the offseason and
has been the workhorse in preseason game action. But the fact remains that the
Texans offensive line looks to be one of the worst again, and Mack is not a game
breaker. If he manages to average 3.9 yards per carry for the year consider it
an achievement. Tony Hollings, a supplemental pick, has played and practiced
well and could easily get a long look during some point of the season. We
project Mack with over 1,000
yards rushing but recognize there�s some risk there. Draft accordingly.
Q: Can James Allen rap?
A: Judging from his decision to �un-retire�, let�s just say
Eminem�s job is safe for now.
Indianapolis Colts
Q: Is Edgerrin James ready to return to dominance?
A: We�re betting he is, and that�s why he�s ranked 7th at his
position. James was healthy last year, but tentative. This preseason he�s been
practicing every day, and outside observers have suggested he looks every bit
the player he was prior to his knee injury. If you pick in the middle of the
first round, James is a very attractive option.
Q: How can Marvin Harrison possibly
repeat last season?
A: We�re not expecting him to, but he doesn�t have to repeat
his 143 catch, 1722 yard season to sit atop the fantasy WR rankings
at year end. There�s no reason a healthy Harrison shouldn�t catch well north or 100
receptions, and he�s about as sure a thing as there is among fantasy veterans.
Q: Is Reggie Wayne the latest
over-hyped Indy WR2?
A: He could be, but we�re thinking Wayne is set to break the curse of the
Indy WR2 and have a solid season (61 recs for 842 yards and 6 TDs).
The Colts� offense (and Peyton Manning�s eyes) don�t seem to leave much chance
for Wayne to break the 1,000 yard mark, but he�s definitely worth drafting and
holding onto in case we�re being too conservative.
Q: Who will be the better fantasy
TE, Dallas Clark or Marcus Pollard?
A: Remember that Indianapolis had the most success when Ken
Dilger and Marcus Pollard were integral parts of the passing attack. Dilger�s
departure put an added burden on Pollard last year, and the team had to keep
him in as a blocker too much. With the acquisition of Clark, the Colts hope they can return to
a two tight end set and alternatively send them out into passing routes. We see
Pollard as the better fantasy
option, an every week starting fantasy option.
Q: Could Indianapolis D surprise this year?
A: With two years under Dungy, the addition of Mike Doss in
the draft, and a schedule that features two games against the Jaguars and
Texans means Indy could be a very productive fantasy defense in certain weeks.
Jacksonville Jaquars
Q: How long until the Jaguars bench
Brunell?
A: Much faster than you might expect. According to Len
Pasquarelli at ESPN, the Jaguars approached at least three teams about trading
the veteran signal caller but have been rebuffed. The Jimmy Smith suspension
had a ripple effect causing Jack Del Rio to consider accelerating the youth
movement. Del Rio officially named Brunell the opening game starter after the
last preseason game, and we think the most likely scenario is that Brunell will
play early but at the first signs of serious trouble, David Garrard and Byron
Leftwich will get time under center with Leftwich winning out.
Q: Can you really justify ranking
Fred Taylor 10th?
A: Certainly our
ranking assumes he plays the full season, which many people simply won�t be
comfortable with. Recall that Taylor played all sixteen games last
season as well, and even though he has been limited during the preseason, the
coaching staff maintains he will be fine and the team�s workhorse this year.
"We identified Fred as a stud and we want to see it in the regular
season," Del Rio said. Given that Taylor won�t have to compete with Stacey
Mack for goal line touches this year, and he will be the main option on offense
week in, week out, we are optimistic about Taylor in 2003.
Q: Who is Taylor�s backup? Toefield?
Joseph?
A: It would be difficult to imagine the Jaguars going with
Elvis Joseph as the backup when he�s seen no preseason action. Rookie LaBrandon
Toefield has been the most impressive backup RB and should get the nod. Nothing
has been officially determined, but that�s how we would look at things as you
head into your drafts.
Q: When will Jimmy Smith be back,
and is he worth drafting?
A: Jimmy Smith was suspended for the first four games of the
regular season and will be allowed to return October 5th for the
home contest against San Diego. Assuming Smith successfully
navigates his rehab assignment and returns as planned, he is absolutely worth
drafting because he remains the only proven receiving threat. For the year, we
project Jimmy Smith to finish
37th with 114 fantasy points. But that projects to a top 20
finish on a points-per-game basis. �As is
the case with Mike Vick, make sure you don�t confuse total points with points
per game.� Smiths projected 114 points
over 12 games makes him a much more valuable �per game� player than a guy who
will score 114 points over 16 games.
Q: So who�s going to catch the ball
in Smith�s absence?
A: J.J. Stokes moves to the number one spot and should see
quite a few looks by default. Stokes has been reasonably sure handed over his
career (5% dropped balls) and could be worth a spot start or two during the
first month. Beyond Smith, Micah Ross has looked strong and should challenge
veterans Donald Hayes and Matthew Hatchette.
Q: Who is Jacksonville�s kicker?
A: Seth
Marler was named the starting kicker, beating out James Tuthill and Danny Boyd.
In any event, we view the Jags kicking job as being one of the least attractive
fantasy prospects at the position, and would recommend staying away until
proven otherwise.
Kansas City Chiefs
Q: Is Priest Holmes really healthy?
A: One more time for the record, we think Priest is back and
as good as ever. His injury wasn�t chronic (aka Bo Jackson�s) and it was a hip
injury, not something that required reconstructive surgery. Priest has been a
fixture in training camp and been impressive in scrimmages and preseason games.
The only thing that could derail Priest�s fantasy season is if his contract
extension demands turn ugly.
Q: Well just in case, should I pick
up Larry Johnson?
A: Conventional wisdom is that Larry Johnson, the first
rounder and collegiate 2,000 yard rusher, is slated to back up Holmes this
year. But barring a change in the depth chart this week, Johnson is behind
Derrick Blaylock and Tony Richardson for that honor. We like Larry Johnson in
keeper leagues, but don�t think he warrants a handcuff pick in regular leagues.
Q: Who are the starting WRs for Kansas City?
A: Johnnie Morton and Eddie Kennison are the starters, but
Dante Hall and Marc Boerigter are expected to get heavier workloads this year
according to OC Al Saunders. We see all four contributing, with Morton rebounding and having
the best season.
Q: Is Tony Gonzalez healthy?
A: Credit HC Dick Vermeil�s flare for overstatement for the
frenzy of worry that swept through fantasy circles this week. Gonzalez was hurt
in practice and initially thought to be out for an extended time. But after getting
an MRI and having it re-examined the following day, Gonzalez is thought as
questionable for the opening weekend, but should return thereafter.
Miami Dolphins
Q: Will Miami open things up a bit
this year with Jay Fiedler, or can we expect 400 carries from Ricky Williams?
A: Nowhere in Dave Wannstedt�s history does it suggest the
Dolphins will �open up the offense.� We project the team will throw for 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns
at best. While Ricky Williams might not get 400 carries this year, don't expect
much more from the passing attack in Miami. We currently have Chris
Chambers, Miami�s number one receiver, ranked 32nd in our projections.
Fielder is 17th in our projections by virtue of his mobility, but we
wouldn�t recommend the Miami passing attack as a place to look for fantasy
production.
Q: Why shouldn�t Ricky Williams be
the top fantasy pick this year?
A: We wouldn�t argue with you if you wanted to draft Ricky
first overall. While we project Williams with the fifth best RB production, most
of the Footballguys staff contributors and the message board consensus rank him 2nd. In
any event, our ranking isn�t a reflection on Williams as much as our belief
that Tomlinson, Faulk, Portis and Holmes are all slightly better options this
year.
Q: Who is Miami�s best defensive player?
A: The Dolphins have an embarrassment of riches on the defensive side of the
ball. Jason Taylor is probably our pick as we expect him to be the top fantasy defensive linemen
this year. But CBs Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison or LB Zach Thomas could also
claim the title. From an IDP perspective, aside from Taylor, we think that the
safety combination of Sammy Knight and Brock Marion be elite producers, ranking 3rd and 12th,
respectively in our IDP rankings.
Q: So if Miami�s defense is so
star-studded, should I take the Team Defense early in my draft?
A: Miami ranks 2nd (behind Tampa Bay) among defenses and should actually
make a difference on a weekly basis. For owners who like to go with a Defense
early, we can see taking Miami in the middle of your draft and
rank the defense 110th
overall in our Top 200 Performance list.
Q: Randy McMichael, fantasy stud?
A: With all the hype of Jeremy Shockey, fantasy owners
tended to forget that Randy McMichael finished the season 9th, quite
a feat for a rookie. McMichael is an excellent receiver and should be even
better this season as he worked on his conditioning this offseason. McMichael
tailed off in the 2nd half of the year, a common occurrence for
rookies. Comfortably target McMichael late in your drafts for excellent value;
we project him with 45
receptions for 560 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Minnesota Vikings
Q: Culpepper the top ranked QB, are
you guys crazy?
A: Our wives might think so, but not when it comes to our
enthusiasm for the former Central Florida standout. Last year, despite throwing 23
interceptions and losing nine fumbles, despite throwing for only 18 touchdowns,
Culpepper was the top ranked fantasy QB in the land. How is that possible?
Because he ran for 10 rushing touchdowns and 600 yards. This year, with a new
contract, an improved defense and the addition of Nate Burleson at receiver, we
see no reason for Culpepper to take a step backwards.
Q: Should we believe all this
Onterrio Smith hype?
A: This is one question that has no easy answer. We are
about as divided on this issue at Footballguys as possible. The �official� FBG
projection calls for modest success (840 yards and 5 touchdowns), but he will
certainly be drafted higher than those numbers would dictate. If you�re
comfortable with the idea that his talent will outshine the steady veteran
presence of Moe Williams and Doug Chapman, then by all means draft him
accordingly. He�s a classic case of �upside� so if you�re in the mood to roll
the dice, Smith may be your guy.
Q: Will Randy Moss rejoin Marvin
Harrison and Terrell Owens as the elite fantasy receivers this year?
A: Absolutely.
Moss had what most considered a bad season last year, yet finished with 106
catches for 1347 yards and seven touchdowns, good for 5th best. Moss
had added considerable muscle this offseason and we�re betting that he�s laser
focused on proving his critics wrong this year. He�s simply too talented to not
expect greatness from.
Q: Why don�t I see Byron Chamberlain
listed among your top 20 TEs?
A: Because he is serving a four game suspension for substance abuse.
Chamberlain could be a solid waiver wire addition if it looks like he�ll be at
full strength upon his return, but we don�t foresee you having to draft him in
most leagues this year. �Again, think of
the production in �pre game� numbers and he looks like a nice find for what
you�ll have to pay for him.
Q: Have the Vikings settled on a
kicker?
A: Hayden
Epstein was given his release (with an injury settlement) and Aaron Elling was
named the starter. Elling, who kicked for Wyoming from 1998 to 2000, is getting his
first chance as an NFL kicker. Obviously if he performs well, he could be a
fantasy goldmine given our expectations for the Vikings offense this year and
the fact that he plays his home games indoors. Viking management has made it
clear that Elling will see competition if he struggles. Plus you know they have
Gary Anderson�s phone number on speed dial�
New England Patriots
Q: Tom Brady led the league in
touchdown passes last year, how can you rate him 11th?
A: For one thing, Brady finished sixth last year despite
leading the league. This year, we don�t see the Patriots throwing the ball 600
times again, even with an uncertain running attack. We feel as though the Patriots
made enough upgrades to their defense that Belichick�s favored ball control
offense will rear its ugly head again in 2003.
Q: So which is it, Antowain Smith or
Kevin Faulk?
A: Even the coaching staff doesn�t know yet. Our bet is that
Antowain Smith�s showing in the last two preseason games has earned him the
starting nod to open the season. Faulk should be commended for his improvement
this preseason, but he�s still better suited for a 3rd down role, in
our opinion.
Q: Is Daniel Graham ready to deliver
on his promise?
A: We think
so, although Christian Fauria remains a steady option as well. Like most
tight ends, we think Graham will have a handful of solid offensive games and a
bunch more box scores to forget.
Q: Is Troy Brown still the go-to receiver?
A: When Troy Brown was injured last year, the entire
Patriots offense ground to a halt. A year older, but no less important we cannot see
why Tom Brady would stop looking his way. Brown is never going to give you that
monster fantasy season, but he�s a steady and consistent producer particularly
in leagues that reward points per reception.
Q: Is Rosey Colvin ready to ascend
to the elite status of fantasy linebackers?
A: We don�t think so. Colvin is a major upgrade to the
Patriots pass rush, but he�s not much of a tackler, and therefore doesn�t
project to have a ton of value in IDP leagues. We rank him a modest 46th at his
position.
New Orleans Saints
Q: How is Aaron Brooks� shoulder?
A: If there�s any lingering pain Brooks is hiding it well.
He�s been a stalwart in practice and has shown the arm strength that he
wouldn�t be able to with a bum wing. We expect Brooks to be gun slinging again
this year, and hopefully not swooning in December, and project him as a top five fantasy QB this year.
Q: Explain to me why Deuce McAllister
isn�t ranked ahead of the �Big 5� please? He led the league in 100 yard rushing
games.
A: Deuce was most definitely loose last year, and he could
very well sit among the top 5 performers at season�s end. The only reason
McAllister sits behind those �other
five� is that we think the Saints offense is a bit more pass happy and feel
Deuce won�t get quite the same number of carries as Tomlinson, Portis or
Williams whereas he�s not as prolific a receiver as Faulk or Holmes. We�re not
going to stand in your way if you want to draft McAllister ahead of those guys
though.
Q: Shouldn�t we be more worried
about the Saints offensive line, they lost Turley you know?
A: Yes, we were aware that Kyle Turley is now with the St.
Louis Rams. However, the team replaced him with Wayne Gandy the massive
ex-Steeler. LeCharles Bentley is getting Pro Bowl hype among Saints faithful,
and the ageless Jerry Fontenot remains a force. As long as Victor Riley can
secure the other tackle spot, the Saints should have an adequate line capable
of opening holes for Deuce and protecting Brooks.
Q: Donte Stallworth�s hamstrings how
are they?
A: Everyone hyping Stallworth this season as a fantasy
sleeper should be at least a bit concerned that he�s been absent for the entire
preseason game schedule. There was a lot of discussion about what Donte did
this offseason to correct the hamstring problems that sidelined him in college
and as a rookie last year. But again, he�s got hamstring issues. To be clear, our
24th place ranking
assume he�s healthy for the majority of the season, so if you do draft the
high-upside Stallworth this year, back him up with a starter-worthy third
receiver.
Q: Is Michael Lewis the most
athletic Beerman ever?
A: Any guy that can run so fast that a head coach notices
him from 100 yards away, runs over, asks him to do it again and then signs him
is one SERIOUSLY fast Beerman.
New York Giants
Q: Will Fassel
call the plays all year?
A: Yes, Jim Fassel is expected to call the plays for the
entire season, which bodes well for the fantasy prospects of the entire team.
Q: What�s the latest on Shockey�s
rib injury?
A: Shockey sat out of the final preseason game for
precautionary measures, but is expected to start the season opener. Remember
that Shockey played most of last year with a turf toe and should be fine,
albeit he�ll likely wear a flak jacket which might inhibit his range of motion.
Q: Will Dorsey Levens vulture
touches from Tiki Barber?
A: Tiki Barber was 2nd in the NFC in rushing last year and scored 11
touchdowns. Yet, for what seems like the 10th year in a row there is
talk that someone will be the Giants goal line back in lieu of Tiki Barber. Just
to put a fine point on it, Barber had more goal line carries, and a higher TD
conversion percentage than Ricky Williams last year. To boot, Levens has never
been a goal line stud in his career. Look for Levens to fill in the role
vacated by Ron Dayne, giving Barber a rest on a few series per game. Draft
accordingly.
Q: Shouldn�t Collins be rated higher
with Shockey, Toomer, Hilliard and Barber at his disposal?
A: We think his current 15th place ranking makes
a lot of sense. While Collins could very well throw for 4,000 yards this season
with all his weapons, the Giants (and Collins) have a history of not throwing a
lot of touchdown passes. Even last season, during the Giants offensive
renaissance, Collins threw for just 19 touchdown passes. Collins is also
virtually worthless as a rushing threat. It would be difficult for Kerry Collins
to crack the fantasy upper echelon but we think he makes a fine spot starter
and backup for the 2003 season.
Q: Who is going to be the place kicker
for the Giants in 2003?
A: Most fantasy sites have assumed that Mike Hollis, the
veteran kicker signed this offseason, was a shoo-in as the starter. But those
paying attention should note that he has been in a heated battle with Matt
Bryant, last year�s starter, all preseason. Neither has been particularly
impressive, Hollis, who�s been battling a sore back, hasn�t attempted anything
beyond 40 yards and Bryant missed his only long opportunity. With so many
kickers available, we recommend you turn elsewhere.
New York Jets
Q: What is Pennington�s
status?
A: It�s our understanding that Pennington is
most likely going to be gone for the first eleven or twelve games of the
season; thus opening the door for Vinny Testaverde to get his 40,000 yards and
then some.
Q: What are reasonable
fantasy expectations for Testaverde this season?
A: Assuming Testaverde stays healthy and plays a
12 game schedule, we think he can throw for over 2,500 yards and 14 touchdowns,
putting him 30th for
the season and in the middle of the pack (mid 20�s) on a points-per-game
basis.
Q: Will Curtis Martin
deliver for one more season?
A: Curtis Martin doesn�t need much, just enough
touches and a fairly solid offensive line and he�ll generate enough fantasy
points to make a difference. He�s falling in most drafts we�ve seen and can be
had as your RB3 in many 10 team leagues; which is great value as we rank him 18th and
expect another 1,500 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns.
Q: So yet another year
LaMont Jordan sits on his laurels?
A: Not necessarily. Curtis Martin said himself
in a recent radio interview that Jordan was talented enough to
start for many NFL units and that the Jets had to find more ways to get him on
the field. We think he�ll get at least 100 touches this year, possibly more and
is worth keeping an eye on because he could be a true stud if Martin gets hurt.
Q: Can Curtis Conway
replace Laveranues Coles?
A: It won�t be easy to replace Coles�
production, particularly for an aging veteran who hasn�t been able to stay
healthy for a full season in years. That said, Conway is a productive fantasy
option when healthy and can be counted on to help you when he�s in the lineup.
We view him as a solid WR3 this year (27th WR) and would
draft accordingly.
Oakland Raiders
Q: Rich Gannon has been
plain awful this preseason, what gives?
A: We�re loathe to judge the reigning MVP on 33
attempts. The Raiders are a veteran team and have kept their cards close to the
vest this preseason. We don�t see why Gannon would suddenly lose his touch
barring an injury and there have been no reports to suggest that. Count on
Gannon to put up another stellar
fantasy season.
Q: Okay, what�s up with
Charlie Garner?
A: That�s more of a mystery. Garner had only 3
rushing attempts all preseason and sat out of practice for a considerable
amount of time. While the Raiders are being non committal about the severity,
we�re a little concerned. Garner�s 17th place ranking
accounts for a downturn in performance; he�s been solidly in the top 10 three of
the last four seasons when healthy. Pay close attention to his status as you
get ready to draft because you don�t want to pass up Garner if he will be ready
for next week.
Q: So Justin Fargas
could be a steal?
A: We must admit that Justin Fargas has been
very impressive this preseason and it leads one to wonder just how secure
Tyrone Wheatley�s hold is on the number two RB position. In deeper leagues, you
could do worse than draft Fargas on a flier, recognizing that if Garner is
healthy, Fargas won�t contribute much at all this year.
Q: Jerry Porter is the starter now,
right?
A: Officially Tim Brown is still listed as the starter
opposite Jerry Rice, but even Brown himself admits that Porter is in line to
get more opportunities this year. We think Callahan will honor Brown by keeping
him in the lineup, the only question is whether Porter can get enough touches
to make the ascension to fantasy stud. We�ve seen Porter get drafted ahead of
Jerry Rice in some leagues, which makes no sense in our view.
Q: Why isn�t Footballguys jumping on
the Teyo Johnson bandwagon?
A: Well, for several reasons. One, he�s a rookie tight end.
Two, he�s behind Doug Jolley who proved to be a reliable fantasy option in his
own right. Three, he�s a converted receiver who must learn to block. Four,
there are more weapons at Gannon�s disposal than on nearly any other team. We
like what Johnson�s done this preseason, and if you have deep enough rosters to
keep a TE as a dynasty pick, by all means grab him, but don�t count on him
helping your team this year if Jolley is healthy.
Philadelphia Eagles
Q: How early should I draft McNabb, I
know he�s a top QB prospect but what round should I target him?
A: We rank McNabb 19th overall in
performance leagues and would be shocked if you didn�t have to spend a 2nd
round pick to obtain him. If he�s there in the 3rd or 4th
it�s a no brainer, in our view.
Q: Duce Staley reported finally, what
will his role be?
A: Andy Reid wouldn�t have welcomed Duce back if he felt
Correll Buckhalter and Brian Westbrook were capable of carrying the load. Staley
is an excellent receiver, one of the best at his position and an equivalently
solid blocker. Reid praised Staley for his conditioning, and we are expecting
him to be a solid contributor this year. But it will be RBBC most likely, so
don�t count on any Eagle as a fantasy starter.
Q: So you don�t think he�ll get
traded?
A: Well, we didn�t put much credence in the Bears talks, but
there is one scenario that makes sense. Detroit lost James Stewart for three to four weeks at
least and Staley is intimately familiar with the Mariucci offense. Mooch and
Reid are also long-time friends and Reid wouldn�t consider the Lions a threat
this year, so trading Staley to them wouldn�t come back to bite him. We�re not
saying this will happen by any means, but if any trade makes sense, this is the
one we�d go with.
Q: Why did the Eagles give Pinkston
a new six year deal?
A: Because they feel he�ll be a cornerstone of their
offensive unit for years to come, and we agree. Pinkston signed a new six year
deal (voiding his remaining two years) and is set to be the Eagles primary pass
catcher. We are predicting a 1,000
yard season and rank him 25th.
Q: Can the Eagles defense survive
the loss of Hugh Douglas?
A: Jim Johnson is one of the best defensive minds in the
game, and as long as the Eagles are able to get production from their defensive
line rotation, they should be effective once again. Unfortunately, Jerome
McDougle and Jamaal Green were injured in the last two weeks which hurts the
team�s depth. The key to the Eagles fantasy prospects on the defensive side of
the ball hinge more on whether newcomers Nate Wayne and Mark Simoneau make
their marks and if the best secondary in the league can stay healthy.
Q: Who will make up for Antonio
Freeman�s departure?
A: Freddie Mitchell has been a different receiver this year
than the first round bust that showed up to camp the last two years. He�s
running sharp routes, is being praised by McNabb, and may even push Thrash for
a starting job if he maintains this level of production into the regular
season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Q: Will Tommy Maddox start all 16 games in Pittsburgh this year? Or is it only a matter of time until Charlie Batch sees game action?
A: We know this isn�t the popular
opinion, and some may disagree but given Tommy Maddox's lack of mobility, the
questionable state of the offensive line and the fact that team management
didn�t see fit to provide Maddox with a contract extension despite the fact
that backup Charlie Batch is making similar money, we could very well see Batch
at some point. While we are not forecasting Maddox to lose his job, we
don�t think it�s out of the question if he fails to perform and would recommend
that you draft Maddox as your
backup, don�t count on him as your starter.
Q: So how can you rank Ward and
Burress in your top 10?
A: Simply put, Ward and Burress are world beaters. They each
finished in the top 10 last season and Maddox ranked in the mid teens on a
points per game basis. The Steelers offense throws to the starting wideouts
more often than most, and with Maddox not contributing any rushing statistics,
the disparity is perfectly logical. If Batch sees action, we don�t see a big drop-off
in the WR�s numbers.
Q: OK smart guys, so if I have to
choose, Ward or Burress?
A: Heads says Ward, Tails say Burress. In all seriousness,
we rate Burress ahead of Ward but both are excellent options as fantasy
starters this year, in our view. Burress gets the nod because of his superior
yards-per-catch (i.e., he does more with less) and our belief that it will be
difficult for Ward to repeat his 12 touchdown receptions of a year ago (it�s
extremely rare for a WR to have back-to-back seasons with 10+ TDs let alone
when they have such a talented counterpart).
Q: So Amos Zereoue is the starter,
does that make him fantasy gold?
A: Probably not. Coach Cowher named Amos Zereoue the opening
day starter citing a �gut feeling� as the rationale. That had to be
disappointing for Jerome Bettis who is in terrific shape and looked re-energized
after a lackluster 2002. In any event, being the Pittsburgh starter doesn�t mean being the
workhorse in this case. We expect both backs to get their fair share of
touches, with Zereoue and Bettis probably getting similar rushing attempts
whereas Zereoue should have considerably more receptions.
Q: Will the Pittsburgh D return to
prominence this season?
A: Longtime Steelers fans probably thought they were watching the wrong team
last year. Injuries and ineffectiveness caused the Steelers pass defense to
collapse last year, and that combined with an injury riddle rushing attack led
to the team having to win shootouts through the air. The team drafted talented
safety Troy Polamalu to shore up the secondary.
San Diego Chargers
Q: Is there any way Tomlinson could improve on his 2002 season?
A: LT doesn't need to improve upon last year to warrant our ranking, but the addition of FB Lorenzo Neal and another year of maturation for the Chargers offensive line can't hurt. The addition of David Boston might actually mean LT won't see eight men in the box on every play. In any event, consider Tomlinson the top pick in nearly every league format this year.
Q: Is David Boston healthy, and how
much does he weigh?
A: According to recent reports Boston is between 250 and 260 pounds, with
less than 5% body fat. Unfortunately for Chargers fans you don�t get a playoff
bye for having bodybuilder receivers. Boston has been sidelined for more than a
week with a mysterious heel injury, which isn�t supposed to be a big concern
for the season. We�d be remiss to say we�re completely comfortable with Boston�s body transformation and the long
term effects it might have, but he�s too talented to ignore if he falls far
enough on draft day. We rank
him 11th and think he�ll have an easy time meeting that mark if
he remains healthy.
Q: Why isn�t Drew Brees ranked
higher?
A: We think Drew Brees can be a successful NFL quarterback,
we�re just not sure he�s in a system that will allow him to put up gaudy enough
stats to make a fantasy impact. Our 22nd ranking puts
him solidly in the role of late round QB2 with some upside.
Q: Who will start opposite David
Boston?
A: Reche Caldwell has earned the job, according to this
week�s depth chart. Tim Dwight and Eric Parker will factor into multiple
receiver sets. We don�t expect any of these guys to help you in standard sized
leagues.
Q: Do the Chargers improve this year
on the defensive side of the ball?
A: Zeke Moreno gets the dubious honor of replacing Junior
Seau, but we wouldn�t be the only football observers to tell you that Junior
hasn�t been close to the Hall of Famer he was earlier in his career. Pass rush
will be the biggest issue with only Marcellus Wiley an established threat. The
key will be whether the secondary can improve upon the horrid showing of a year
ago. For those that get points for special teams, Eric Parker has returned two
punts for TDs thus far this preseason.
San Francisco 49ers
Q: Do I downgrade Jeff Garcia because
of his back?
A: We don�t see how you cannot. Garcia has gotten at least
two cortisone injections already and yet still had to sit out of practice for
part of this week. We wonder how he�ll be able to handle a full game of hits
and hurries, particularly because he relies on his mobility so much. In our
latest rankings we project
Garcia 12th, and would draft accordingly.
Q: So I should downgrade the entire San Francisco offense?
A: Not at all, Tim Rattay is capable of running the offense
at a high level in our view. Rattay has been in the SF system for three years,
and has prototypical arm strength and size. He�s not mobile and we don�t see
Rattay as being a great fantasy option should Garcia be injured, but he should
still get Owens the ball and hand off to Barlow and Hearst.
Q: What�s the latest on the Barlow/Hearst
battle?
A: HC Dennis Erickson hasn�t announced his starter yet, and your guess
is as good as ours. Barlow has age on his side, but isn�t as good a blocker. We
think it�s a given that Barlow gets quite a few touches because the team needs
to know whether he�s worth re-signing as their feature back next season. But
presumably the 49ers didn�t retain Hearst and his expensive contract to sit
him. We are straddling the fence and see both having similar years; it probably
won�t turn out that way but we�d draft either once the obvious starters were
off the board.
Q: With Eric Johnson�s injury, who
will start at tight end?
A: Jed Weaver gets the nod.
Q: We know Terrell Owens is a stud,
but should I give Tai Streets or Cedrick Wilson a look?
A: Possibly Streets, but he�ll have to show more ability to
make plays downfield or yardage after the catch before you consider him as a
spot starter.
St. Louis Rams
Q: Is Faulk back to elite status?
A: In a word, yes. Faulk played in his first preseason
action last week and was spectacular. In only one half of action, Faulk
compiled over 100 total yards and two TDs. Granted it is still preseason,
but keep in mind this was Faulk's FIRST game action of the year. Imagine
what he will do when he really gets warmed up. Another factor to
consider; Kurt Warner is healthy. A strong passing attack from Warner will
only help Faulk's cause, both as a receiver and by keeping the defense honest. As
an added bonus, Orlando Pace recently signed and the Rams added Dave Wohlabaugh
and Kyle Turley in the offseason. With the addition of Turley, the Rams
may have the best pair of bookends in the game. Faulk is definitely back
and we heartily stand by our #3
ranking.
Q: Is Orlando Pace back in the
fold?
A: Orlando Pace accepted the one-year tender
offer and practiced with the team on Tuesday, August 25th. The
addition of Pace allows Kyle Turley to play right tackle and puts the Rams
offensive line near the top of the league�s best.
Q: Will Torry Holt start catching
touchdowns this year?
A: Torry Holt seems to be a handful of touchdowns away from
being perennially in the mix with Owens, Harrison and Moss as the best receivers in
the league. Despite putting up more yardage than nearly any other receiver in
the last three seasons, Holt has only caught 17 touchdowns (less than 6 per
season). But keep in mind that touchdowns are the least predictable component
of fantasy production and we think it would be a serious mistake to overlook
Holt in performance scoring leagues in the third or fourth round.
Seattle Seahawks
Q: Will
Walter Jones suit up for the Seahawks this year?
A: Probably. No one, even team officials, knows
what�s really going through Walter Jones� head. But barring a trade, which
doesn�t appear to be in the works, expect Walter Jones to play for the Seahawks
sooner rather than later. Money talks and we don�t see anyone forfeiting $5.7
million. Given the animosity on both sides, it�s possible Jones could sit out a
few games, but should play the bulk of the season.
Q: Is Matt Hasselbeck the most over-rated quarterback in this year�s
draft?
A: Overexposed? Maybe (although Michael Vick has
something to say about that), but not necessarily overrated. Hasselbeck is
relatively unproven, but we like him to build off of his strong second half
last year. He has the weapons at TE, WR and RB to put up some gaudy fantasy
stats, and we expect him to finish in the top 10 this season (QB Projections).
Q: Will TE Jerramy Stevens play this year, what�s up with his legal
issues?
A: There has been no mention of the young tight end
having any additional legal woes, and the team has treated the situation as
though he will be with the Seahawks for the full 16 game schedule.
Q: Is Maurice Morris going to vulture carries from Shaun Alexander?
A:�� We don�t
think so, barring injury look for Morris to bide his time as a backup this
year. Consider what Stump Mitchell, the RB coach, had to say, "His goal is
eventually to be a starter ... but he has to understand his role." This
season, Maurice Morris is expected to spell Shaun Alexander on a few drives
and, more importantly, key the Seahawks return game. We project Morris with 70
carries on the season.
Q: Will Seattle improve on defense this
year?
A: The hiring of Ray Rhodes should help the Seahawks
defensive ranking this season, as he has consistently crafted solid defensive units
throughout his career. While the team looks much improved in the secondary
(rookies Ken Hamlin and Marcus Trufant), there remain questions on the front
line, with Chad Eaton being lost for the season. We currently project the
Seahawks defense 26th,
but believe that could be overly conservative if the rookies play as well as
they have this preseason.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Q: Brad
Johnson is on my waiver wire, what am I missing?
A: That�s what we�d like to know.
Brad Johnson finished as the 14th best fantasy QB last year, even
more impressive when you consider he played in just 13 games. Over the 2nd
half of the season, once the offensive line began playing better, Johnson was
lights out throwing for 1,505 yards, 15 touchdowns and just one interception in
six games; good for 4th best (points per game). Entering his 2nd
season in Gruden�s offense, with an upgraded line, and capable receivers we see
little reason why Johnson shouldn�t be solidly in the top 20 this year, making
him a late round steal at this juncture.
Q: Can
the Bucs repeat as the best fantasy defense?
It�s never easy for a team, particularly coming off the Super Bowl, to
duplicate the accomplishments of the prior year. But the Bucs defense was
considerably better than any other last year (from a fantasy scoring
perspective) and we are projecting them as the number one defense again. The
team�s only major loss was Dexter Jackson, but Dwight Smith could start for
many NFL teams. In addition, the Bucs added veteran Dwayne Rudd.
Q:
How early should I draft the Bucs Defense, assuming they are the top fantasy
defense again in 2003?
Your league scoring system and the tendencies of your league
mates are essential to answering this question. But in general, in standard
performance leagues, we are rate the Tampa Bay defense 79th in our Top 200 List. Draft
accordingly.
Q:
Pittman? Jones? Alstott? Stecker?
A: All of the above. All indications are that the Bucs are
planning on using lots of backs this season in different situations. That said,
the latest word out of Tampa is that Michael Pittman�s revocation hearing is to
be postponed again, making it more likely he�ll be available for the full
season. In that case, Pittman would start. Certainly Alstott figures into the
equation, especially around the goal line. And Thomas Jones has had a strong
camp, and would be in line for plenty of work if Pittman were out of the
equation. We currently project four backs to have at least 50 carries for the
Bucs (Bucs Projections),
and would recommend against counting on any of them to be consistent fantasy
contributors.
Q: Is
Chris Simms worth a look in rookie or dynasty drafts?
A: Chris Simms probably won�t see the field this year, as he
will start the season behind Brad Johnson and Shaun King. But Simms has looked
solid in preseason action (against 2nd team defenses admittedly) and
has all the physical tools to flourish in the right system. Given Brad
Johnson�s age and injury history, and Jon Gruden�s propensity for developing
quarterbacks, he is worth a selection in deep leagues where you can hold him at
low cost for a year or two.
Tennessee Titans
Q: Steve McNair is
healthy; does that mean we should avoid him?
A: You might think so. What other QB has been as
banged up as McNair only to put up so many top ten seasons? All kidding aside,
we think that McNair�s health makes him a virtual shoo-in to finish among the top 10 fantasy QBs this year,
yet he�ll probably be available in the mid rounds of your draft.
Q: Does Eddie George
have one more strong fantasy year in him?
A: 3.4 yards per carry isn�t stellar, in fact
it�s downright bad. But for Eddie George, that�s all it took to finish as the
10th best fantasy RB in 2002, thanks to 343 carries and 14
touchdowns. The Titans are talking about giving George a few more series off
this year, but who�s going to carry the ball? Chris Brown is hurt and we�re not
sure Simon or Holcombe can get the job done. We think Eddie George has another
top 20 season in him, as long as he�s not your RB1, you can win with him in
2003.
Q: Bennett or McCareins?
A: Bennett has been the starter all preseason
and that hasn�t changed. McCareins has, however, done enough to make the
discussion interesting. Add rookie Tyrone Calico into the mix and McNair could
have his best collection of receivers ever.
Q: Wycheck or Kinney?
�A: Frank
Wycheck is seriously considering his future after suffering a bad concussion
this preseason. He wasn�t expected to be as vital a part of the offense this
year anyway as the team looks to get Erron Kinney more involved, but the days of
Wycheck finishing in the top 10 are probably over.
Washington Redskins
Q: Will Spurrier stick with Patrick
Ramsey all season?
A: We think he might because he�s admitted that his QBBC
didn�t work last year. If you look back to 2002, Spurrier never benched Ramsey
when he started a game and we think that he�s done enough this preseason to
secure Spurrier�s confidence. In fact, we expect Ramsey to flourish this year
with Gardner and Coles at his disposal, finishing 14th
among QBs.
Q: Trung Canidate, fantasy stud?
A: If he doesn�t fumble away the job, possibly. Canidate has
been the best back in camp and we think Spurrier�s decision to sit him for this
week�s final preseason contest was a de facto admission that the starting job
is all his. Considering that Spurrier is also in talks to trade either Ladell
Betts or Kenny Watson, we think Canidate will get the lion�s share of the
touches in D.C. this year. We rank
him 22nd, an excellent RB3 and competent RB2.
Q: Coles or Gardner?
A: Both, we think both will finish in the top 24 this
year.
Q: Are there any Redskins defenders
worth targeting in my IDP league?
A: Lavar Arrington and Jeremiah Trotter both rank among our
top 25 LBs.
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