Auction Poker
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Posted 8/12 by Steve Wynne - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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This is not the first time you will see someone describe Fantasy Football as
being like Poker. But an auction draft should be handled the same way you handle
poker night with your buddies. Know how the game is played, and have a plan
going in, Play tough, play tight, and play aggressive.
For those who haven't read my previous article,
here is a quick introduction to some of the terms I use for auction drafting:
- Value - the maximum $ that you think a player is worth in cap money
- Price - the $ amount you think the player will go for, based on understanding
your opponents.
- PPG - points per game, your fantasy points projection for the player
divided by 16.
- Tiers - You usually can't buy the guys you want if you also want
value (the name of the game is buying a $125 team for $100). Group similarly
performing players into tiers, and buy the bargain in the tier you target.
The Value of Position
In poker, the best place to be is "on the button." That means you
are the dealer (casinos use their own dealers, and move a button around the
table to designate who gets the last card in that deal), and you get to bet
LAST. That means you have more information and get to see what the rest of the
table is doing. At the auction, the same rule applies. Don't bid until you know
how many other owners are bidding on that player. If the player has reached
$10, you should see who the other bidders are. If it's a scrum (over 5 bidders)
wait until the bidding pool thins out to three or less. If the bidding goes
over your value for the player, just take a pass and wait for the next player.
You always want to be the last person to bid on a player (that way you get him).
Playing a Good Hand
In poker, occasionally the card gods smile on you and give you a natural full
house with your first five cards. Bet the max and you will scare off the fish
before the last two cards hit the table. Bet like you only have a pair of sixes,
and they will contribute their cash to your retirement fund. In any auction
draft, there are two places where a bargain hunting drafter has a good hand.
The first is very early in the draft, the equivalent of the first round of picks.
A baseline has not yet been set, and you can take advantage by grabbing a mid-level
player when others are thinking of spending $35 on LaDainian Tomlinson. If William
Green is called early, you can take advantage of the lack of baseline to steal
him for 80% of his value.
The other sweet spot is the equivalent of rounds 3-8. Most of the top 20 players
are gone from the board, and 75% of the owners are short of cash ($30 or less
each). Here is where you can bargain shop for the rest of your starters. If
you have 1 stud (a top 5 RB), one or two backup players, and $70, you own this
part of the draft. Don't screw it up by taking marginal talent here. Get the
guys at the top ends of your tiers for as little as 60% of their value.
Playing a bad hand
It's late, the decent talent is gone, and you have $10 left to buy 6 players
to fill out your roster of 16. You will have to get two of those players for
$1 each, but you don't want to be stuck in Salary Cap Hell and get those guys
as the last two players drafted. Well my friend, start targeting the best $1
value players. Those are the names you will call out when it is your turn. If
someone else bids two, it hurts them. If you get the player, hey, at least you
got the best $1 player on the board. You need to get those $1 players as early
as possible, because if you only have $2 and need two players, those players
will fall into the category of "sleepers so deep that they pass for dead."
Your other mission is "speed and volume." When another owner nominates
the $2 player (or $3 player) that you want for $1, be the first to say "TWO."
Say it loudly, because tie goes to the noisy. Oh yeah, if you are in an open
auction, never append anything to your number. Don't say "two bucks"
or "two dollars" because it takes longer to say, and you will lose
any of those ties.
Bluffing to Win
Other articles tell you to always bid in $1 increments (or whatever the minimum
is). But there are opportunities to get some psychology involved. Say I like
Donovan McNabb this year. I have his value at $25, and have estimated his price
at $28 (my league is based in Philly). That means my gut feel before the draft
is "I'm not getting Donovan McNabb this year." So, another owner brings
him up, and it's going back and forth
"3," "4," "5,"
"6." I would bid it up to $11 after the $6 bid. Someone says "OK,
Steve's impatient, 12." "13." I'd come back with 18, a big jump,
but nowhere near McNabb's value or cost. "19." "20." Here
is where you drop the hammer. Say, "OK, fine, $25, top that." Pretty
close to his cost, will scare off a couple guys. If you play it right, you can
get your man at your value, and for a lower price that you thought. This only
works early (high supply of available QBs), and only works on the studs. If
Vick, Culpepper, and other top QBs are already gone, McNabb will go for more
than his price (low supply). But if someone tops your bid, don't worry, because
you haven't spent any money, and Aaron Brooks is still out there waiting for
you.
The 80/20 rule
You never want to be predictable at the draft. If you bid on every player until
he reaches your "value," then you stop bidding when the player goes
over that value, your opponents will pick up on this "tell" and take
advantage of it. Twenty percent of your bids in an auction should be used to
throw the other owners off your scent. Pick a guy you don't want or expect to
get, and throw a number out when he gets to 50% of his value. Wait for a "Going
Twice" from the auctioneer to make a bid once in a while (Don't do it too
often, it's annoying). Trash a player then bid on him. Then trash a player and
DON'T bid on him.
Peace out.
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