There are a ton of fantasy football articles out there extolling the virtues of the auction draft over the traditional serpentine system. Like Abe Lincoln, an auction's superiority is a truth I hold to be self evident. This article assumes that you feel that way too. It delves a little deeper, focusing on the specific strategies and tactics employed during a FFL auction. It is meant to compliment the "Draft Day Tips" section of Steve Wynne's July 15th article entitled "Auction Planning, Strategy and Tactics." Some of the information in this article overlaps with Steve's, and some of this information contradicts what Steve said. However, since the auction format is getting more and more popular and there is a scarcity of material discussing auction strategy, reading opposing viewpoints should be useful. This article, unless it states otherwise, assumes that your league uses a standard yardage-based scoring system, typical starting lineup requirements, and a roster of 16 players.

GENERAL AUCTION STRATEGY

You must enter the auction with a thought-out plan. As mentioned in Steve's article, you should prepare a cheatsheet featuring two columns of dollar values. One column with your valuation for each player and another column for each player's market value. The market value column, if you have done your homework correctly, will closely approximate the price each player will go for at the auction. Here's a slightly tweaked version of Steve's VBD application adjustment:

As you go into your auction, you obviously will have no idea what your roster will look like when all is said and done. However, because of the discrepancies between the personal valuation column and the market value column, you should know that there are certain players you are very likely to draft and others with virtually no chance of landing on your squad. The players who fall into the first category are those who you believe will outperform their probable auction price--the "undervalued". Their personal value is higher than their market value. The players who fall into the second category are those you feel will not live up to their probable price tag--the "overvalued". Their market value outstrips their personal value. You should walk into your auction with the goal of manipulating things so that the undervalued players end up on your roster at the lowest price possible, and the overvalued players end up on the rosters of your opponents at exorbitant prices. If you're not going out on any limbs-meaning that your personal player values don't differ very much from their market values, your goal is to simply bargain hunt. Here are some methods of accomplishing those goals.

KNOW YOUR HISTORY

Besides conjuring up amusing memories ("Bob paid $26 for Curtis Enis?!") the results of your league's past auctions are an invaluable tool. They will allow you to do three things:

1. Pinpoint players' approximate values. Whether they realize it or not, your leaguemates are creatures of habit. If you study past auctions, you will discover that a pricing structure has been created. For instance, if the most expensive player in your draft has cost $49, $54, and $52 in the past three years, it is reasonable to assume that the most expensive player this year will fall within that $49-$54 range. Similarly, if the 10th most expensive WR is historically always about $12, it is very likely that the 10th most expensive WR will cost about $12 this year. And so on and so forth. Being armed with this information will allow you to attach precise market value figures to each player on your cheatsheet. In fact, your cheatsheet's market valuations should be based largely on this historical information. Of course, if this is your league's first auction, you will not be able use history as a method of predicting value.

The only place where your auction's history should not determine market value is in the very top tier of players. The size of the top tier varies from year to year. In 2001, the top tier was two players (Edge and Faulk). In 2002, it was one player (Faulk). This year, the top tier appears to have as many as five players in it. In 2001 and especially 2002, the price(s) paid for the top player(s) were outlying values sitting far atop the rest of the auction. This year, you should flatten out and lower the top market values to accommodate the larger top tier.

2. Detect trends and pricing patterns in the auction. Take a look at past auctions and try to identify trends. Are the top tier running backs getting more expensive every year? If so, perhaps forgoing the big names in favor of two or three underpriced second tier guys is a good move. Are your leaguemates reluctant to spend more than a few bucks on a tight end? Then maybe paying a little extra for the best TE on your board is the right play. These are examples of identifying and bucking trends to gain an advantage. The errors your opponents have historically made are likely to be repeated. You should be ready to capitalize on this.

Pricing patterns also develop through the years. Are the first few players nominated always slightly cheaper than comparable players nominated later on? (this is pretty typical) Where are the bargains-in the early or late stages of your auction? Knowledge of these patterns forms the basis of your nomination strategy (more on that below).

3. Learn other owners' tendencies. As time goes by, your opponents will earn reputations. Sometimes these reps are accurate, other times they are faulty. Looking at past auctions is a surefire way of making accurate judgments about your foes. Does one guy always chase after the draft's marquee names? Maybe another guy never bids on expensive quarterbacks and takes whoever falls into his lap. Another guy might overvalue rookies or players from his favorite team. Some guys have pet players who they will overpay for. Some owners refuse to field a team without one of the top running backs, regardless of cost. If you look closely at past auctions, you'll find that you can predict certain guys' actions before they are made. If you can look at an opponent's column on your draft board and accurately predict what he'll do next, you've got him in your back pocket. It's a major advantage.

NOMINATION STRATEGY

The strategies behind player nomination are rarely discussed, but are quite important. If your league does not use a preset order in which players are nominated, you can really help your cause by nominating the right players at the right times. Here are some tips.

1. Keep an eye on your opponents. You must be acutely aware of who has spent what, and which players they have. This dictates your nomination strategy.

Example Question #1: There are five top tier players in the draft pool. You have already acquired one of them and cannot afford another. It is early in the draft. Three of the top tier guys are left on the board, and six teams have yet to spend any money. It is your turn to nominate a player. Who should you nominate?

Answer: Many people will argue that you should now nominate a mid-level player that you want. The logic behind this argument is that other owners will hesitate to bid on this player because they are saving their money for the remaining top tier guys, and you'll sneak away with the player. I disagree. The more money your opponents have, the more dangerous they are. You must nominate one of the remaining top tier players and get a bidding war going. It is imperative that these players, if they are landing on someone else's roster, go for premium prices. Since a lot of owners still have a full bankroll, now is the time to get the big guys' names out there. You want your opponents to be financially crippled during the draft's end game (see below).

Example Question #2: Your league starts two running backs per team. It is late in the draft. Only you and one other owner, your buddy Bob, have a significant amount of money left. All but three owners, one of which is you, and another of which is Bob, have drafted two running backs. All the top tier running backs are off the board, and there are only two second tier running backs left. One is Tiki Barber, who you value at $15 but has a market value of about $20. The other is player Kevan Barlow, who you value at $28 but also has a market value of $20. The rest of the available running backs are not in the class of Barber or Barlow. It is your turn to nominate a player. What should you do?

Answer: It would be a mistake to nominate Barlow and allow a bidding war between you and Bob to take place. It is also a mistake to nominate a third, cheaper player and thereby allow all of your leaguemates into the bidding. You should nominate Tiki, and open the bidding at about $14. Since this is significantly under his market value, another owner, probably Bob, will bid on him. Hopefully, one of the cash-strapped owners will also get into the bidding and force Bob to pay near-market value for Tiki. You should not bid on Tiki once someone else does. This would be needlessly enforcing value (see below). Placing Tiki on another roster, hopefully Bob's, will pave the way for Barlow's arrival on your team at well below your personal value. In the unlikely event that you nominate Tiki for $14 and no one bids on him, you still have acquired him at $1 below your personal valuation and $6 below his market value. It is not the end of the world.

2. Only nominate players you want when you know you can get them cheap. In the early and middle stages of the draft, you should be nominating players you don't want. However, as mentioned above, if you have studied your auction's history, you know the pockets where good value choices can be made. If you don't have history to rely on, here are some common patterns:

The first few players nominated are typically sell for cheaper than market value. At the very outset of the auction, owners usually are hesitant. Before they jump into the fray, they want to see a few players go off the board so they'll have baseline values to work with. Having studied your auction's history, you will not fall into the same trap as them. You will trust the numbers on your cheatsheet. If it's your turn to nominate a player right away, you can take advantage by naming a guy you really want.

Example Question #3: There are five top tier players in the draft-Tomlinson, Ricky, Faulk, Portis and Holmes. You think Portis, although the consensus is that he's the fourth best of the group, will have the best year. The draft is starting and you are the first to nominate a player. Who should you nominate?

Answer: You should nominate Portis. Most of the other owners will have cold feet and won't be ready to bid too high. Portis will likely go for less than market value, and almost certainly for less than your personal valuation. If he doesn't, let someone else have him. If the market for the top five players is set too high--remember, you are trusting your cheatsheet--you will have to revamp your plan and collect second tier players.

The last few middle tier players to be nominated are often cheap. While the last few remaining players in the first and second tier are often vastly overpriced, the opposite is true for players in lower tiers. This is because other owners, eager to acquire the top players (typically the running backs), often panic, overspending on the top tier guys. This cripples them later in the auction. Once again, the idea is to trust your cheatsheet. If players are consistently going for over market value, the bargains will come. It might be excruciating, but you must be patient and wait it out. Players can't go for over market value all day; the pool of players (even the running backs) is too large. The other guys' money will dry up sooner or later. You can scoop up some good players later on for reasonable prices.

BIDDING

Here are some tactics for use while a player is up for bid:

1. Trust your cheatsheet. You worked hard on creating it, so believe in the numbers on your sheet. If an overvalued player (i.e. a player whose market value is higher than your personal value for him) is nominated, don't hesitate to bump the bidding up to a dollar value near your personal value on your cheatsheet. You can do this even though you have no intention of winning the bidding for this player.

Example Question #4: Ricky Williams is one of the marquee names in the draft, but you think he's overvalued. On your sheet you have his market value listed as $52 with a personal value of only $44. Someone nominates him. You have not spent much money yet. The bidding is lagging along at $13, $14, now $15. What should you do?

Answer: You should bid something like $41. Everyone in the room knows the bidding is going to get up into that range anyway. Plus, this gives everyone the mistaken impression that you are interested in Williams, but you'll be dropping out of the bidding at $44.

2. Don't needlessly enforce value. The Ricky Williams example illustrates when it's a good time to ensure that a player goes for a price near his market value, i.e. "enforcing" that value. There are also some very, very bad times to do this.

Example Question #5: Your league starts one quarterback. The top two quarterbacks on your board are Vick and McNabb. You have just picked up McNabb for $32. Now someone nominates Vick, and the bidding is stalled at $24. You have Vick rated higher than McNabb and find this price appalling. The auctioneer counts Vick off. "Going once… going twice…" What should you do?

Answer: You should sit there and stew. Do NOT get involved in the bidding just to enforce value. Never fall into this trap. You cannot afford to spend money on a second quarterback and still expect to put together a decent team. Don't be an idiot. Tip your cap to the guy who got Vick for $24 and move on.

3. Don't exhibit any tells, and learn to read other players' tells. In poker, when a player unknowingly gives reliable hints about the strength of his cards, that player is said to have a "tell." Maybe he scratches his nose when he has a strong hand. Maybe he becomes very chatty when he is bluffing. You get the idea. A player with a tell becomes easy to beat because you already know what he is trying to accomplish. This applies to bidding in fantasy football auctions as well. A tell could be anything-maybe the tone of a guy's voice changes when he really wants a player. Maybe he starts chewing on his pen when a crucial player is nominated. Some guys will actually stand up and pace around the room when a player they really want has been nominated. It is definitely hard enough to keep track of your cheatsheet and the draft board during an auction, but if you can, observe the behavior of your opponents. You may discover a tell.

Here is a common tell many owners have: If they are not interested in a player, they will bid on him early but drop out later. But if they're interested in a guy, they will sit tight until the bidding is about to stall and then suddenly jump in.

Example: Ricky Williams is nominated, and the bidding goes on for awhile between three owners, until finally the bidding stalls at $51. The auctioneer says "going once, going twice," when suddenly Bob, who has not been involved up until that point, jumps in at $52. Invariably, Bob will be very high on Ricky Williams, and he's going to end up with him at whatever price he has to pay.

Here is another obvious tell I observed last year: When Marshall Faulk was nominated in my 2002 auction, the bidding eventually got into a stratosphere previously unseen in my league's history. At this point, the bidding was down to two guys (and ten dumbfounded spectators). At each dollar increment, Owner #1 took his time and decided whether to bid one more dollar. Each time Owner #1 bid another dollar, Owner #2 quickly and robotically blurted out the next dollar amount, making it clear that he was going to be the eventual Faulk owner regardless of price. If, throughout the process, Owner #2 had bluffed by pretending he was uncomfortable bidding any higher, he would have landed Faulk for a cheaper price. His manner of bidding was a tell. He made his intentions obvious-never a good idea.

4. Exude confidence, except when you are bluffing. What, more poker talk? Yep. Fantasy football auctions, by nature, are nerve wracking. You can never be certain that your decisions are correct. But don't let your opponents know that you feel that way. When you bid on a player, act like it's your birth right to bid that price. Large incremental jumps in the bidding, like the one described in the Ricky Williams example above, are a good way to tell everyone in the room that you mean business. Guys will take notice. Don't be a wallflower. If you are involved in the bidding on most of the players, no one will be able to determine which players you actually want, and which players you are not interested in (but no needlessly enforcing value!).

The only time you should drop your confident veneer is when you have decided to bluff. But bluffing by feigning indifference over a desired player until the auctioneer is about to count the player off is not a good move. As I mentioned above, that's an obvious tell--and anyone who has read this article will be onto you! But feigning uncertainty can be a good bluff. If the bidding is down to you and one other owner, and you are sure you want the nominated player, it will serve you well to take your time and pretend to mull it over each time it's your turn to bid.

THE END GAME

I believe fantasy football leagues are won and lost at the end of the auction. There are dozens of hard copy publications and literally hundreds of websites devoted to ranking players. Because of this, everyone enters the auction with virtually the same list of the top 60 players, and at your auction's midpoint, they will be more or less evenly distributed among the teams in your league. It is from that point forward that you will do your real damage. Here are ways of inflicting that damage:

1. Hoard your money. Imagine the end of the auction is a regular draft, except its format is not serpentine. Would you rather have the first five picks or the last five picks? You never want to be paralyzed by having no money to work with-it relegates you to scooping up the leftovers at the very end. If you are sitting in the driver's seat with plenty of money at your disposal, it's like having the first five picks in a draft--you can basically fill in your roster with whoever you want.

In every auction, there is one owner who ponies up the big bucks for three superstars and is left with something like nine dollars remaining to fill eight roster spots. His column on the draft board looks nice midway through the auction, but this guy is in deep trouble. His last few starters are going to be in the Wayne Chrebet/Stacey Mack category, and his bench will look even worse. You don't want to be this guy. You should avoid being reduced to a spectator at all costs, even if it means passing up on solid players earlier.

Example Question #6: Your league starts three wide receivers. It is late in the auction. You have only drafted one WR. You have $18 left to fill six roster spots, Bob has $25 left to fill seven spots, and the rest of the owners have $12 or less left. There is only one top 60 player left-Keyshawn Johnson, and he just got nominated. Your cheatsheet lists him as a $10 player. The bidding gets up to $6. What should you do?

Answer: You should sit this one out. Keyshawn offers you solid, predictable production, but you're never going to hit a home run by drafting him. Solid, predictable production is nice, but it's not going to win your league. Plus, the drop-off from Keyshawn to the $1 receivers isn't that great. Save your money so you can be in the driver's seat for the final stages of the auction. You'll have your pick of the leftovers. And leftovers can be nice.

2. Swing for the fences-draft backup running backs. Every year, guys who are backups at the start of the season end up ranking among the elite players. Clinton Portis and Marcel Shipp in 2002, Shaun Alexander in 2001, Ahman Green and Mike Anderson in 2000. These players are often among the last players auctioned off. You'll notice that I'm only listing running backs. That's because the unheralded guys that emerge as FFL superstars are disproportionately running backs (Jeff Garcia and Kurt Warner notwithstanding). These running backs will cost the same price, in the range of 1%-2% of your cap, as middling no-upside wide receivers such as Keenan McCardell and Shawn Jefferson. Backup running backs, especially young ones, should have higher personal values on your cheatsheet than the vast array of adequate wide receivers that go for the same prices.

Example Question #7: You have successfully hoarded your money till the very end of the draft. No one has as much cash left as you. You have already drafted a full starting lineup and some backups. You have 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D, and 1 K, in a league that starts 1/2/3/1/1/1. You have $13 left to fill four spots. The best players left on your board are Joey Galloway, Drew Bennett, Dennis Northcutt, LaMont Jordan, Jamel White and Najeh Davenport. Who should you target?

Answer: You should target the running backs. In fact, you should draft almost any backup running back before these wide receivers. Don't even think of another wide receiver. Are the remaining wide receivers each likely to out-produce the remaining running backs? Yes, they're all nice players. But will they win your league for you? Absolutely not--but the running backs might. As long as your league does not have positional drafting requirements, you should never draft more than one backup wide receiver (and the importance of this statement is multiplied ten times in a keeper league, and one hundred times in a dynasty league). Your goal in drafting a team is not to construct a team with a roster full of marginal starters. Your goal is to bludgeon your opposition with superstars. You must be the owner that unearths that $2 back that will go for $50 at next year's auction. You don't have to be a genius or an NFL scout to do this. A scattershot approach will work just fine. Just get those backup running backs on your roster.

It is safe to assume that at least a few other owners in your league will also know the importance of drafting backup running backs. But if you take my advice, you'll have more money than them at the end, so they'll be powerless to stop you from drafting them.

I hope at least some of the information above will be of use to you in your auction. Now go kick some butt and take names.