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Blitz Package - Week 16

Please look at Shawn Culcasi's IDP strength of schedule, and Clayton Gray's strength of schedule, if you have some tough lineup choices to make. I like to look at the offense SOS's, and play LBs on teams that face strong running teams and DBs/DLs on teams that face strong passing ones.

If you have a tie between your #2 and #3 LB or #2 LB and #2 DB, I highly recommend that you go and read our Rushing and Passing matchups. When in doubt, start your LBs/SSs/DBs that are playing against RBs we say that have good or great matchups, and DBs that are playing against WRs that have good or great matchups. They will be on the field a long time, increasing your odds for high tackle/PD/INT numbers.

Keeper/Dynasty questions
With the season over for a lot of us, I am switching into dynasty/keeper mode. If you have any questions, comments or venting to do, please email me at [email protected].

TOP Watch

  • Falcons -4


  • Jets -4


  • Giants -4


  • Chargers -3


  • Chiefs -3


  • Lions -1 (but I think that the Panthers O has a good match against the Lions D, so it will probably be Lions -2 or more)


  • Eagles -2


  • Colts -2 (but a lot depends on Anderson/Portis. This could easily be -3 Broncs if the Denver running game struggles, and they are @ Indy)


  • Oakland -2 (but it will probably be more like -3+).


Blitz Packages

This week I am not going to devote a whole lot of time to matches. If you have made you league championship you already have a pretty good idea of who you are going to start. The bulk of you are out of the playoffs, and are more interested in next year, especially those of you in keeper or dynasty leagues.

Defensive Lineman

  • Greg Ellis/ La' roi Glover DAL
    The Giants are averaging over 4 sacks per game. Last week Charles Grant and Darren Howard each got a sack from this same line. These two should also be able to manage that as well as 3-6 tackles.


  • Michael Strahan NYG
    The Cowboys are also not doing a stellar job protecting Quincy Carter lately. They are right at 3 sacks allowed/game. I'd recommend Strahan's linemates, but they have been too inconsistent. Strahan should get one and 3-6 tackles since he will be on the field a lot and face whichever Dallas RB is Parcells' flavor of the day.


  • Jevon Kearse/Kevin Carter TEN
    With Dave Ragone at the helm, the Texans are now surrendering more sacks than they have most of the season. They should each get one, as well as 4-5 tackles.


  • Vonnie Holliday KC
    Time for a Holliday sighting, just in time for the…well, never mind, sometimes the best pun is one left unsaid. Anyway, the Vikings let too much pressure get to C-pep, and have yielded 3 sacks/week on average. Holliday has a good chance for 1 sack and 5 tackles.


  • Other potentially good sack outings: Bears DL (Redskins 3 sacks/game); Rams (Bengals 3/game); Dolphins (Bills 3/game).


Linebackers

  • OLB Peter Boulware/Terrell Suggs BAL
    I was shocked to see that none of the Ravens DL or LBs got sacks last week, based on the highly favorable match they drew. This week they get a chance to redeem themselves against a forgiving Browns team. The Browns are giving up almost three sacks per game, so the match is favorable yet again. Let's hope they do more with the opportunity this time.


  • Jets LBs
    The TOP has favored good production for a while now from the Jets LBs, yet they are only putting up backup-type numbers. For example, Glenn, Hobson and Jones all got between 7-8 tackles last week. Watch the weather - if it's snowy again, the Patriots will hand the ball to Smith and his grind it out style will pay huge dividends. Last week in the snow JAX LB Peterson got 8-6-1, and LB Ayodele got 6-2-0!


  • Michael Barrow/Dhani Jones NYG
    The TOP clearly favors another big day from these two. I think that Hambrick will be the star of the day, and that means 8-10 tackles here again.


  • Oakland LBs
    These guys have been playing well enough that I haven't been mentioning them because it has been so obvious. But I think that they have a chance for a HUGE day, since the Pack will be running at them all day - 9+ tackles.


Defensive Backs

  • Charles Tillman/Mike Brown/Bears DBs
    Tim Hasselbeck has 5 picks in the past four games. I think he'll toss 2 here since the Bears DL has been playing well and applying good pressure to opposing QBs. Give them 2-3 PDs and 3-5 Tackles.


  • Omar Stoutmire/Frank Walker/NYG DBs
    Quincy Carter is in a down phase and has thrown 1.25 picks per game lately. If Strahan gets after him like I think he will, these guys will get 2. However, I think these are a bit risky for INT's since I expect to see the Dallas run game featured since Parcells has to be aware of that trend. I think that their tackle total is a safer play, and expect 5-7. So tweak their starting status based on your whether your scoring system favors INTs or tackles.


  • Charles Woodson/Raider DBs
    The matchup is favorable (Favre also has 1.25 picks per game the past month), but if you are relying on your Raider DBs to reap the benefits of this trend, look elsewhere. The Packer game plan will be Ahman left, Ahman right, Ahman up the middle, with just enough throwing to keep them honest. Oakland's pass rush barely has a pulse, so the signs all point to Favre and Green bay having a pretty good day all around. I think that 7-9 tackles are about right for the Raider DBs.


For other good tackle outings, play your LB/DBs on the teams featured in my TOP watch.

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