Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Aaron Brooks |
NO
|
QB14
|
81st
|
If there was ever a week you can hope to get some
value out of your selection of Aaron Brooks on draft day, it should
be this week playing at home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs made
Brian Griese look like Joe Montana last week; if Brooks can't differentiate
himself in Week 10; he should no longer be considered a starting
caliber QB in most 10 and 12-team leagues. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Brian Griese |
TB
|
QB20
|
102nd
|
Griese has averaged 235 yards passing and 1.5
touchdowns per contest over the last four games since taking over
for an injured Chris Simms in week 5. Griese completed passes
to 8 different receivers last week against the Chiefs. He faces
a Falcon defense this Sunday which is just as vulnerable; they
are 29th in passing yards allowed and 28th in yards per attempt.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Jake Delhomme |
Car
|
QB18
|
94th
|
Delhomme is coming off his best game of the season,
and was a great second half performer last year. The 49ers defense
leaves a lot to be desired, and this game could easily turn into
another shoot-out. Delhomme should be good for at least 250 yards,
and has averaged forty passes per game the last four weeks.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Aaron Brooks |
NO
|
QB14
|
81st
|
New Orleans is at home against the Chiefs, whose
pass D gives up the second most FF Points to QBs in the league.
'Nuff said there, I think.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Tom Brady |
NE
|
QB7
|
54th
|
Brady has been workmanlike in managing the game for
the league's best (or one of the best) team; but he's not been a
reliable fantasy difference maker and I don't see that changing
against a solid Buffalo defense this week. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Tom Brady |
NE
|
QB7
|
54th
|
Brady is having a solid season, but he hasn't
thrown for 300 yards since the opening game against the Colts.
This week he faces a stingy Bills pass defense that has given
up only 172 passing yards per game, second fewest in the NFL.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Ben Roethlisberger |
Pit
|
QB12
|
74th
|
Roethlisberger has been lights out the past few
weeks, but many of the top QBs have great matchups on Sunday.
So I'm going to take the guy facing a tough Cleveland team at
home, in a rivalry game that figures to be close. There could
definitely be some sort of let down for Pittsburgh here, and they
might rely more on the running game in the Dawg Pound.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Tom Brady |
NE
|
QB7
|
54th
|
Buffalo's pass defense gives up very few FF points
to QBs. Though Brady will get a lift coming home after a two game
road trip. I expect this will be a hard fought game with not a
lot of yardage sacrificed on either side. At least it will be
low yardage enough to keep Brady's numbers under the QB12.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Eddie George |
Dal
|
RB34
|
95th
|
Eddie George hasn't proven his critics wrong this
year in Dallas; he is still every bit the "3 yards and a cloud
of dust" runner that was (correctly) sent packing in Tennessee.
However, with the Cowboys playing horrendously and Vinny throwing
picks left and right, look for Parcells to K.I.S.S. (keep it simple
stupid) this week and pound George early and often, trying to control
the clock. Remember he faces an Eagles run defense that was exposed
by Jerome "3 yards and a cloud of dust, part II" Bettis
this past week. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Kevan Barlow |
SF
|
RB27
|
55th
|
Barlow has been a huge disappointment this year,
averaging only 3.6 yards per carry (after averaging 5.1 and 4.7
the past two seasons) and on pace to fall short of 1000 rushing
yards. He has only had one 100-yard game this season (rushing
and receiving), but should get his second this week against one
of the league's worst rush defenses. The Panthers are giving up
142 rushing yards and 1.63 rushing TDs per game this year -- 29th
and 32nd in the league, respectively.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Kevan Barlow |
SF
|
RB27
|
55th
|
Barlow is going up against one of the worst run
Ds in the league. The Panthers have allowed a league high thirteen
TDs on the ground, and are in the bottom five in rushing yards
allowed. If Barlow is ever going to get out of this funk, this
would be the week. He's scored in two of the last three weeks,
and should see at least twenty carries.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Derrick Blaylock |
KC
|
RB39
|
116th
|
Let's see, last week's "gut call" of
Barlow barely jumped over the RB24 mark, but he got over it. This
week, it's a bit easier - able to play or not, Priest Holmes is
expected to give up quite a few carries to Blaylock. New Orleans
is giving up the second most FF points to RBs in the league, Blaylock
should be big in what will likely be an offensive shoot-out.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Curtis Martin |
NYJ
|
RB10
|
14th
|
Last year when Chad Pennington was in the lineup,
Curtis Martin was "on pace" for 1,500 yards rushing
when
Pennington was out of the lineup, he was demonstrably less effective.
Pennington's absence alone would be enough to sit Martin considering
how strong he's been; but combine that with the fact that the Jets
face the Ravens defense, which is giving up the fewest fantasy points
to opposing runners, and you might consider giving CMart a rest
in Week 10. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Rudi Johnson |
Cin
|
RB21
|
36th
|
The Washington Redskins' run defense has been
awesome this year. They are giving up only 3.07 yards per carry
(1st in NFL), 84 rushing yards a game (2nd in NFL), and have allowed
only 4 rushing touchdowns all season. Only Jamal Lewis has broken
the 100-yard barrier against them on the ground.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Rudi Johnson |
Cin
|
RB21
|
36th
|
Johnson goes against the best run D in the league.
The Redskins are allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, so don't expect
100 yards out of Rudi. The Bengals don't use Johnson much in the
passing game, so he's going to have a hard time putting up fantasy
starter numbers this week unless he gets into the end zone.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Curtis Martin |
NYJ
|
RB10
|
14th
|
What can you say? He's facing Baltimore, a team
that could play with 8 in the box against the run regardless of
the QB. Without Chad Pennington, they will be able to play 8 in
the box all game long. This is going to be a really tough week
for the Jets to manage any offense, let alone ground yardage.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Nate Burleson |
Min
|
WR39
|
109th
|
This choice was too simple. Daunte Culpepper found
Burleson last week in key situations, Randy Moss is almost assuredly
going to sit again this week, and the Vikings face one of the worst
pass defenses in the league this week. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Johnnie Morton |
KC
|
WR36
|
101st
|
Morton is quietly on pace for a 1000-yard season,
and has found the endzone in each of his last two games. He faces
a New Orleans Saints secondary this week that is in disarray.
The Saints defense is 31st in the league in passing yards allowed,
and 32nd in yards per attempt.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Jabar Gaffney |
Hou
|
WR47
|
130th
|
This one isn't too hard. Gaffney has caught over
80 yards each of his last three games. The Colts passing defense
is absolutely horrendous. It's likely that Gaffney and Johnson
will both hit 100, in what should be a shoot-out. at the RCA dome.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Brandon Stokley |
Ind
|
WR37
|
104th
|
Seems like Manning picks a new favorite target
every week - it's been a few weeks since Stokley's had a big week,
though. Then again, Houston gives up the second most FF points
to WRs in the league. Everyone looks good, on both sides, in this
Indianapolis/Houston matchup, so I like Stokley here.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Brandon Lloyd |
SF
|
WR23
|
62nd
|
Brandon Lloyd was left for dead a few weeks ago after
being on EVERYONE'S "can't miss sleeper" lists in the
preseason. But a few solid outings have turned him back into a player
many consider starting on a weekly basis. At first blush, people
may consider the week 10 matchup against Carolina a favorable one;
but the Panthers are allowing a league low 11.8 fantasy points per
game to opposing wide receivers. Lloyd isn't reliable enough (yet)
to simply plug into your lineup, consider other options if possible. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Keyshawn Johnson |
Dal
|
WR24
|
66th
|
Keyshawn leads the Cowboys this year with four
touchdown receptions, but he faces an Eagle defense this week
that has surrendered only 9 passing TDs so far on the season,
is ranked 5th in yards per attempt surrendered, and has the physical
corners to match Johnson's toughness. Johnson is the Cowboys'
only true weapon at WR right now, so look for the Eagles to double-team
him all day and force Eddie George to beat them on the ground.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Keyshawn Johnson |
Dal
|
WR24
|
66th
|
Keyshawn and the Cowboys are mired in an awful
slump, and things don't get easier this week. Facing an angry
Eagles team, expect the Philly D to play extremely well on national
TV.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Brandon Lloyd |
SF
|
WR23
|
62nd
|
Carolina gives up the most points to RBs and the
least to WRs - wonder how that happens? One reason is that Carolina's
cover guys are actually pretty talented. It's also because no
one needs to throw against them. That said, expect RB Kevan Barlow
to have a big day, and for Lloyd not to.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Chad Lewis |
Phi
|
TE21
|
188th
|
Chad Lewis isn't at the point in his career where
he's likely to be consistent fantasy contributor any longer; but
the Eagles are focused on spreading the ball around after becoming
a bit too predictable in recent weeks. Lewis remains sure handed,
and against a Dallas front line that cannot get to the QB, he won't
have to stay in and block much. He'll have chances to contribute
this week and makes a solid bye week/injury fill in. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Boo Williams |
NO
|
TE14
|
133rd
|
Williams is coming off a 5-reception, 71-yard,
1-TD game last week against the Chargers, and may finally be establishing
himself as a big part of the Saints' offense. This week's game
against the Chiefs will be a high-scoring affair with the Saints
likely playing from behind in the second half, so expect Aaron
Brooks to put the ball in the air quite a bit. Williams has caught
touchdown passes in two out of the last three games, and will
look to add another this week.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Boo Williams |
NO
|
TE14
|
133rd
|
Williams had five catches for 71 yards and a score
last week. Facing the awful Chiefs D, Williams could easily see
a repeat performance this Sunday.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Boo Williams |
NO
|
TE14
|
133rd
|
Boo was a great pick last week to finish above
the baseline as he clocked in with over 70 yards receiving and
a touchdown. As long as he's below the baseline and facing a weak
pass defense like Kansas City's, he'll stay on my above the baseline
list at TE - it certainly looked like a "coming alive"
party for Boo.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Dallas Clark |
Ind
|
TE10
|
98th
|
Dallas Clark showed this past week he can be a big-time
weapon; but he's also still no better than the 5th or 6th option
in that passing game; and that's not the kind of player I want to
hang my hat on if at all possible. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Eric Johnson |
SF
|
TE8
|
75th
|
Eric Johnson is having a remarkable year, on pace
for a 100+ catch, 1000+ yard season. But he faces a Panther defense
this week that has given up only four passing TDs all season,
the fewest in the NFL. With the Panthers giving up 142 rushing
yards per game, expect the 49ers to keep the ball in Kevan Barlow's
hands as much as possible, especially near the goal line.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Alge Crumpler |
Atl
|
TE5
|
65th
|
Crumpler has just seven catches in four career
games against the Bucs. Vick's struggles against Tampa Bay are
well documented, so this could be an off week for Crumpler.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Eric Johnson |
SF
|
TE8
|
75th
|
OK, last week was a horrible call with Shockey
to finish below the baseline - but the reasoning I used was solid
since Chicago gave up only 1.2 FF PPG. This week, it is more of
a gut call. As mentioned above, Carolina has a good pass defense
but a weak run defense, I look for the entire SF run game to get
going, thus reducing the need to pass to Johnson as much as the
team typically does.
|
|