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Beyond the Baseline



Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Aaron Brooks
NO
QB14
81st
If there was ever a week you can hope to get some value out of your selection of Aaron Brooks on draft day, it should be this week playing at home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs made Brian Griese look like Joe Montana last week; if Brooks can't differentiate himself in Week 10; he should no longer be considered a starting caliber QB in most 10 and 12-team leagues.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Brian Griese
TB
QB20
102nd
Griese has averaged 235 yards passing and 1.5 touchdowns per contest over the last four games since taking over for an injured Chris Simms in week 5. Griese completed passes to 8 different receivers last week against the Chiefs. He faces a Falcon defense this Sunday which is just as vulnerable; they are 29th in passing yards allowed and 28th in yards per attempt.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Jake Delhomme
Car
QB18
94th
Delhomme is coming off his best game of the season, and was a great second half performer last year. The 49ers defense leaves a lot to be desired, and this game could easily turn into another shoot-out. Delhomme should be good for at least 250 yards, and has averaged forty passes per game the last four weeks.
Marc Levin Selects....
Aaron Brooks
NO
QB14
81st
New Orleans is at home against the Chiefs, whose pass D gives up the second most FF Points to QBs in the league. 'Nuff said there, I think.
Picks to finish BELOW
t
he Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Tom Brady
NE
QB7
54th
Brady has been workmanlike in managing the game for the league's best (or one of the best) team; but he's not been a reliable fantasy difference maker and I don't see that changing against a solid Buffalo defense this week.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Tom Brady
NE
QB7
54th
Brady is having a solid season, but he hasn't thrown for 300 yards since the opening game against the Colts. This week he faces a stingy Bills pass defense that has given up only 172 passing yards per game, second fewest in the NFL.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Ben Roethlisberger
Pit
QB12
74th
Roethlisberger has been lights out the past few weeks, but many of the top QBs have great matchups on Sunday. So I'm going to take the guy facing a tough Cleveland team at home, in a rivalry game that figures to be close. There could definitely be some sort of let down for Pittsburgh here, and they might rely more on the running game in the Dawg Pound.
Marc Levin Selects....
Tom Brady
NE
QB7
54th
Buffalo's pass defense gives up very few FF points to QBs. Though Brady will get a lift coming home after a two game road trip. I expect this will be a hard fought game with not a lot of yardage sacrificed on either side. At least it will be low yardage enough to keep Brady's numbers under the QB12.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Eddie George
Dal
RB34
95th
Eddie George hasn't proven his critics wrong this year in Dallas; he is still every bit the "3 yards and a cloud of dust" runner that was (correctly) sent packing in Tennessee. However, with the Cowboys playing horrendously and Vinny throwing picks left and right, look for Parcells to K.I.S.S. (keep it simple stupid) this week and pound George early and often, trying to control the clock. Remember he faces an Eagles run defense that was exposed by Jerome "3 yards and a cloud of dust, part II" Bettis this past week.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Kevan Barlow
SF
RB27
55th
Barlow has been a huge disappointment this year, averaging only 3.6 yards per carry (after averaging 5.1 and 4.7 the past two seasons) and on pace to fall short of 1000 rushing yards. He has only had one 100-yard game this season (rushing and receiving), but should get his second this week against one of the league's worst rush defenses. The Panthers are giving up 142 rushing yards and 1.63 rushing TDs per game this year -- 29th and 32nd in the league, respectively.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Kevan Barlow
SF
RB27
55th
Barlow is going up against one of the worst run Ds in the league. The Panthers have allowed a league high thirteen TDs on the ground, and are in the bottom five in rushing yards allowed. If Barlow is ever going to get out of this funk, this would be the week. He's scored in two of the last three weeks, and should see at least twenty carries.
Marc Levin Selects....
Derrick Blaylock
KC
RB39
116th
Let's see, last week's "gut call" of Barlow barely jumped over the RB24 mark, but he got over it. This week, it's a bit easier - able to play or not, Priest Holmes is expected to give up quite a few carries to Blaylock. New Orleans is giving up the second most FF points to RBs in the league, Blaylock should be big in what will likely be an offensive shoot-out.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Curtis Martin
NYJ
RB10
14th
Last year when Chad Pennington was in the lineup, Curtis Martin was "on pace" for 1,500 yards rushing…when Pennington was out of the lineup, he was demonstrably less effective. Pennington's absence alone would be enough to sit Martin considering how strong he's been; but combine that with the fact that the Jets face the Ravens defense, which is giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing runners, and you might consider giving CMart a rest in Week 10.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Rudi Johnson
Cin
RB21
36th
The Washington Redskins' run defense has been awesome this year. They are giving up only 3.07 yards per carry (1st in NFL), 84 rushing yards a game (2nd in NFL), and have allowed only 4 rushing touchdowns all season. Only Jamal Lewis has broken the 100-yard barrier against them on the ground.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Rudi Johnson
Cin
RB21
36th
Johnson goes against the best run D in the league. The Redskins are allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, so don't expect 100 yards out of Rudi. The Bengals don't use Johnson much in the passing game, so he's going to have a hard time putting up fantasy starter numbers this week unless he gets into the end zone.
Marc Levin Selects....
Curtis Martin
NYJ
RB10
14th
What can you say? He's facing Baltimore, a team that could play with 8 in the box against the run regardless of the QB. Without Chad Pennington, they will be able to play 8 in the box all game long. This is going to be a really tough week for the Jets to manage any offense, let alone ground yardage.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Nate Burleson
Min
WR39
109th
This choice was too simple. Daunte Culpepper found Burleson last week in key situations, Randy Moss is almost assuredly going to sit again this week, and the Vikings face one of the worst pass defenses in the league this week.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Johnnie Morton
KC
WR36
101st
Morton is quietly on pace for a 1000-yard season, and has found the endzone in each of his last two games. He faces a New Orleans Saints secondary this week that is in disarray. The Saints defense is 31st in the league in passing yards allowed, and 32nd in yards per attempt.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Jabar Gaffney
Hou
WR47
130th
This one isn't too hard. Gaffney has caught over 80 yards each of his last three games. The Colts passing defense is absolutely horrendous. It's likely that Gaffney and Johnson will both hit 100, in what should be a shoot-out. at the RCA dome.
Marc Levin Selects....
Brandon Stokley
Ind
WR37
104th
Seems like Manning picks a new favorite target every week - it's been a few weeks since Stokley's had a big week, though. Then again, Houston gives up the second most FF points to WRs in the league. Everyone looks good, on both sides, in this Indianapolis/Houston matchup, so I like Stokley here.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Brandon Lloyd
SF
WR23
62nd
Brandon Lloyd was left for dead a few weeks ago after being on EVERYONE'S "can't miss sleeper" lists in the preseason. But a few solid outings have turned him back into a player many consider starting on a weekly basis. At first blush, people may consider the week 10 matchup against Carolina a favorable one; but the Panthers are allowing a league low 11.8 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Lloyd isn't reliable enough (yet) to simply plug into your lineup, consider other options if possible.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Keyshawn Johnson
Dal
WR24
66th
Keyshawn leads the Cowboys this year with four touchdown receptions, but he faces an Eagle defense this week that has surrendered only 9 passing TDs so far on the season, is ranked 5th in yards per attempt surrendered, and has the physical corners to match Johnson's toughness. Johnson is the Cowboys' only true weapon at WR right now, so look for the Eagles to double-team him all day and force Eddie George to beat them on the ground.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Keyshawn Johnson
Dal
WR24
66th
Keyshawn and the Cowboys are mired in an awful slump, and things don't get easier this week. Facing an angry Eagles team, expect the Philly D to play extremely well on national TV.
Marc Levin Selects....
Brandon Lloyd
SF
WR23
62nd
Carolina gives up the most points to RBs and the least to WRs - wonder how that happens? One reason is that Carolina's cover guys are actually pretty talented. It's also because no one needs to throw against them. That said, expect RB Kevan Barlow to have a big day, and for Lloyd not to.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Chad Lewis
Phi
TE21
188th
Chad Lewis isn't at the point in his career where he's likely to be consistent fantasy contributor any longer; but the Eagles are focused on spreading the ball around after becoming a bit too predictable in recent weeks. Lewis remains sure handed, and against a Dallas front line that cannot get to the QB, he won't have to stay in and block much. He'll have chances to contribute this week and makes a solid bye week/injury fill in.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Boo Williams
NO
TE14
133rd
Williams is coming off a 5-reception, 71-yard, 1-TD game last week against the Chargers, and may finally be establishing himself as a big part of the Saints' offense. This week's game against the Chiefs will be a high-scoring affair with the Saints likely playing from behind in the second half, so expect Aaron Brooks to put the ball in the air quite a bit. Williams has caught touchdown passes in two out of the last three games, and will look to add another this week.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Boo Williams
NO
TE14
133rd
Williams had five catches for 71 yards and a score last week. Facing the awful Chiefs D, Williams could easily see a repeat performance this Sunday.
Marc Levin Selects....
Boo Williams
NO
TE14
133rd
Boo was a great pick last week to finish above the baseline as he clocked in with over 70 yards receiving and a touchdown. As long as he's below the baseline and facing a weak pass defense like Kansas City's, he'll stay on my above the baseline list at TE - it certainly looked like a "coming alive" party for Boo.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Dallas Clark
Ind
TE10
98th
Dallas Clark showed this past week he can be a big-time weapon; but he's also still no better than the 5th or 6th option in that passing game; and that's not the kind of player I want to hang my hat on if at all possible.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Eric Johnson
SF
TE8
75th
Eric Johnson is having a remarkable year, on pace for a 100+ catch, 1000+ yard season. But he faces a Panther defense this week that has given up only four passing TDs all season, the fewest in the NFL. With the Panthers giving up 142 rushing yards per game, expect the 49ers to keep the ball in Kevan Barlow's hands as much as possible, especially near the goal line.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Alge Crumpler
Atl
TE5
65th
Crumpler has just seven catches in four career games against the Bucs. Vick's struggles against Tampa Bay are well documented, so this could be an off week for Crumpler.
Marc Levin Selects....
Eric Johnson
SF
TE8
75th
OK, last week was a horrible call with Shockey to finish below the baseline - but the reasoning I used was solid since Chicago gave up only 1.2 FF PPG. This week, it is more of a gut call. As mentioned above, Carolina has a good pass defense but a weak run defense, I look for the entire SF run game to get going, thus reducing the need to pass to Johnson as much as the team typically does.
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