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Beyond the Baseline



Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Brian Griese
TB
QB13
76th
Brian Griese has looked surprisingly like the QB who played so well in Denver a few years ago that Mike Shanahan rewarded him with the largest contract in team history. It seems that Griese's quick release has mitigated some of the offensive line issues, and his grasp of Jon Gruden's offense appears solid despite it being his first year in the system. With his receiving corps getting healthier, and against arguably the worst defense in the league (San Francisco), this should be a good week to play Griese over quite a few other QBs.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Josh McCown
Ari
QB24
119th
The Cardinals as a team are starting to play better football, and McCown needs to show the front office that he's still the quarterback of the future in Arizona. He is getting more comfortable with the offense, and has three talented receivers in Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Bryant Johnson. The Panthers will try to contain Emmitt Smith and force McCown to beat them through the air, and McCown will be up to the task.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Ben Roethlisberger
Pit
QB16
87th
Roethlisberger hasn't been asked to do much lately, but that might change this week in Cincinnati. The Bengals offense has improved lately, and the Steelers will probably need to throw to score to beat them. Roethlisberger has more than enough weapons to have his first three hundred yard game as a pro. Bettis has had over sixty carries the past two weeks, and Staley is still banged up, so they may decide to open things up this week.
Marc Levin Selects....
Joey Harrington
Det
QB22
111th
The Vikings allow a lot of yardage and fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They also score a lot of points, leading to high scoring games. While I expect the Vikings to win this game fairly easily, Harrington should post some good comeback numbers and I would expect a couple or three touchdown passes from him in this game.
Picks to finish BELOW
t
he Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Peyton Manning
Ind
QB1
7th
Yes, Peyton Manning is on pace to have the best fantasy season of any QB in the history of the NFL, and yes, there is no way you're going to bench him for any reason, let alone my recommendation in this feature. However, every player has an off week or two and from what I've seen of the attacking Chicago defense, combined with the windy confines of Soldier Field, I predict a rare mediocre day from Peyton.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Donovan McNabb
Phi
QB3
18th
McNabb is having a great season, but runs into a defensive powerhouse this week when he faces the Washington Redskins. The Skins are in the top 10 in nearly every defensive category, and are top five in yards per pass attempt and passing touchdowns surrendered. They also have the speed at linebacker to contain McNabb when he takes off to run.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Aaron Brooks
NO
QB11
70th
Brooks has thrown for just six TDs the past six games, and will struggle against the Broncos this weekend. Denver has quietly put together an excellent pass defense, ranking second in the league in passing yards allowed and third in passing touchdowns allowed. Even at home, Brooks looks like a very risky start, and one without much upside.
Marc Levin Selects....
Aaron Brooks
NO
QB11
70th
Denver has a very good defense - much better than the Kansas City defense that Brooks was able to occasionally exploit in week 10. Denver was able to control David Carr and Andre Johnson in week 9, and I would anticipate they will employ a similar strategy against Brooks and Horn. Though Brooks' numbers could go up with dump off passes to Deuce McAllister, I don't anticipate many deep passes against Champ Bailey and the Denver safeties, or successful passing in the red zone.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
T.J. Duckett
Atl
RB31
84th
T.J. Duckett has quietly reemerged as a part of the Falcons offensive attack, and what's most encouraging is that it's come at a time when Warrick Dunn isn't hobbled by injury. Last week Duckett scored two touchdowns and appears to have worked his way into the role of short yardage back that most of us predicted for him during the preseason. Against a Giants defense that wasn't particularly stingy against opposing runners in the first place, but now has lost it's top two defensive linemen (Strahan and Washington), I would be surprised if Duckett doesn't taste the endzone again.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Kevin Jones
Det
RB32
88th
After a slow start due to injury, Kevin Jones has worked himself into the featured RB position for the Lions, and this week faces a Minnesota defense that is soft against the run. The Vikings have surrendered 4.85 yards per carry this year along with 12 rushing touchdowns. Jones should be good for 70+ yards this week and is better than even money to score a touchdown.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Kevin Jones
Det
RB32
88th
Jones was impressive against a tough Jags D, rushing nineteen times for eighty-one yards. Against an awful Vikes run D, Jones should hit the century mark for the first time in his career. Ahman Green torched Minnesota for 145 rushing yards on just 21 carries, so it's clear the Vikings haven't been playing much defense lately.
Marc Levin Selects....
Thomas Jones
Chi
RB26
46th
Last week's call of Blaylock was a slam dunk. This week's call of Thomas Jones to come back from injury and be big against the Indianapolis defense seems like an equally simple call. The bottom line is that the Bears go to Jones all game long, in every situation. Even if the team is down by a bunch of TDs, Jones seems like an easy call to have a big day.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Ahman Green
GB
RB5
5th
How can I project Ahman Green to disappoint in a week when he faces the porous Houston Texans defense? Surprisingly the Texans allow the 5th lowest points to opposing running backs; it's the passing attack where they are horrific (23 passing TDs allowed through 9 games). The Packers will score points through the air, and Green won't get the touches necessary to justify his typically lofty spot among our rankings.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Marshall Faulk
StL
RB18
27th
Faulk is coming off his best game of the year, having rushed for 139 yards against the Seahawks. He faces a significantly tougher run defense this week when he takes on the Bills. The Bills have allowed only three rushing touchdowns all year, the fewest in the NFL. They are also holding opposing RBs to fewer than 3.7 yards per carry.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Lee Suggs
Cle
RB21
36th
The 2004 Jets defense is leaps and bounds better than the unit they had last year. After ranking 29th against the run in 2003, they are currently fifth--and shut down Jamal Lewis last week. Coming off a bad loss, the Jets should be focused and motivated. Suggs won't have an easy time this weekend hitting the 100 yard mark.
Marc Levin Selects....
Marshall Faulk
StL
RB18
27th
The Buffalo run defense was embarrassed in week 10 by Corey Dillon. But that was in New England. This week, at home, against the Rams, I believe the Bills will show their mettle and justify their #3 ranking in fantasy points against for running backs. The Bills may be toasted through the air by Bulger, but I am willing to gamble that they will prevent big ground yardage from Faulk. With Stephen Jackson getting most of the goalline carries, Faulk may have a poor outing.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Eddie Kennison
KC
WR34
93rd
Eddie Kennison has been lights out the last two weeks catching a combined 13 receptions for 225 yards and 1 TD (both 100+ yard games). He's reemerged as Trent Green's favorite WR target. Playing at home against a Patriots secondary that is starting an undrafted rookie and a practice squad player at CB; Kennison is a great start as your WR2 or WR3 this week.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
David Patten
NE
WR40
112th
Patten is a big-play threat going against a Chiefs' defense that is prone to surrender big plays. The Chiefs have given up 7.98 yards per pass attempt this year (31st in league) and have surrendered 17 touchdown receptions (27th in league).
Chase Stuart Selects....
Marcus Robinson
Min
WR41
114th
Playing in the Metrodome against a bad Lions D, "MROB" should have one of his big games of the year this weekend. Robinson has developed the reputation as a guy that explodes one week, and then disappears for a month. The last time Robinson played the Lions, he had eleven catches for 170 yards and three touchdowns. OK, that was in 1999--but without Moss for another week, it's time for Robinson to explode.
Marc Levin Selects....
Donald Driver
GB
WR33
92nd
With Javon Walker getting so much attention, someone is free - I believe that someone has been Driver. Driver has not been heard from much the last few weeks, but the Texans pass defense is really poor, and they give up a lot of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. I believe that Favre will rediscover Driver this week in the red zone - a TD and 40-60 yards should put Driver above the baseline.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Anquan Boldin
Ari
WR24
66th
Anquan Boldin is back on the field, but he's still not the same player that caught more than 100 passes as a rookie in 2003. Right now, he's a viable second option to Larry Fitzgerald, and Bryant Johnson has been oft targeted too. To rely on Boldin making a big impact this week, against a Panthers secondary that allows the fewest points to opposing WRs in the NFL seems foolish.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Keyshawn Johnson
Dal
WR28
73rd
Jason Witten, not Keyshawn Johnson, is the primary pass receiver in the Cowboys' offense right now. Moreover, Keyshawn is facing perhaps the best pass defense in the league this week when he goes against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are allowing only 5.56 yards per attempt this season (lowest in the NFL), and have given up only six touchdown receptions all year.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Keyshawn Johnson
Dal
WR28
73rd
Key was my choice here last week too, so if it's not broken I won't fix it. Johnson will have a very difficult time against the Ravens defense, who will feast on a one-dimensional offense. The Cowboys look disoriented and defeated, and I'm not ready to start Keyshawn in too many leagues right now.
Marc Levin Selects....
Keyshawn Johnson
Dal
WR28
73rd
Dallas appears to be falling apart at the seams. Now they go on the road into Baltimore, which has a simply smothering pass defense. They also play in very low scoring games. Keyshawn can handle the physical Baltimore secondary, but his quarterbacks may not be able to handle the pass rush, and he could see double teams all day long. A very difficult passing day, and a defensive contest, rarely lends to many fantasy points for wide receivers.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Aaron Shea
Cle
TE19
166th
Aaron Shea has quietly had a productive season, scoring touchdowns in 3 of his six games played. While Shea isn't someone to start over a top 10 QB most weeks, he's not a bad option if you rotate your TEs and/or have need of an injury fill in.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Doug Jolley
Oak
TE15
140th
Jolley has become one of the few legitimate weapons on a generally poor offense. He scored a touchdown against the Chargers when the teams met three weeks ago, and was the only player frequently getting open against the Chargers secondary. Look for the Raiders to go back to him this week.
Chase Stuart Selects....
L.J. Smith
Phi
TE18
159th
Smith and the Eagles play the best defense in the NFC this week. The Redskins don't give up many mistakes, and are very aggressive. Watch Philadelphia try and keep the Skins off balance by dumping it off to Smith and TE Chad Lewis.
Marc Levin Selects....
Daniel Graham
NE
TE20
176th
He has been virtually invisible the last bunch of weeks after starting the year looking like one of the top TEs in the league. This week, New England goes into Kansas City, where I expect a very high scoring game. It is hard to predict Graham to suddenly reemerge as a force, but I will make this my one "gut call" for the week. With all the offense I expect in this game, one TD from Graham should be enough to launch him above the baseline.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Dallas Clark
Ind
TE7
71st
OK, so my prediction for a Clark disappointment was a week too early (if you took my advice last week, I apologize) but the fact remains that he's no better than the 4th option in the Colts passing attack. Against a very tough Chicago defense in the windy confines of Soldier Field, this is the week you'll wish you started your other TE.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Dallas Clark
Ind
TE7
71st
Clark is coming off a huge week, having caught two touchdowns and going over 100 yards against the Texans. But he faces a Chicago Bear defense this week that is playing inspired football right now. The Bears should look to take the underneath passes away and force Manning to look downfield. Manning may still get his numbers, but Clark should have an off week.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Jeb Putzier
Den
TE11
120th
It's hard to expect a whole lot out of Putzier this weekend. Denver's averaging over ten more points per game at home and Putzier hasn't had a four catch game since week three. Facing the Saints in New Orleans this week, you can probably find a better option.
Marc Levin Selects....
Jermaine Wiggins
Min
TE9
96th
Man, I have been way off in this category by relying on fantasy points against to TEs. This week, I will go with Wiggins because the Detroit run defense is so weak and because they do a good job against the TE from a fantasy perspective. Wiggins has been on fire lately with Moss out, but so has WR Burleson. Since I expect the Vikings to be able to run a lot more at home this week, I think Wiggins will be used significantly less in the passing game.
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