Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Brian Griese |
TB
|
QB13
|
76th
|
Brian Griese has looked surprisingly like the QB who
played so well in Denver a few years ago that Mike Shanahan rewarded
him with the largest contract in team history. It seems that Griese's
quick release has mitigated some of the offensive line issues, and
his grasp of Jon Gruden's offense appears solid despite it being
his first year in the system. With his receiving corps getting healthier,
and against arguably the worst defense in the league (San Francisco),
this should be a good week to play Griese over quite a few other
QBs. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Josh McCown |
Ari
|
QB24
|
119th
|
The Cardinals as a team are starting to play better
football, and McCown needs to show the front office that he's
still the quarterback of the future in Arizona. He is getting
more comfortable with the offense, and has three talented receivers
in Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Bryant Johnson. The Panthers
will try to contain Emmitt Smith and force McCown to beat them
through the air, and McCown will be up to the task.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Ben Roethlisberger |
Pit
|
QB16
|
87th
|
Roethlisberger hasn't been asked to do much lately,
but that might change this week in Cincinnati. The Bengals offense
has improved lately, and the Steelers will probably need to throw
to score to beat them. Roethlisberger has more than enough weapons
to have his first three hundred yard game as a pro. Bettis has
had over sixty carries the past two weeks, and Staley is still
banged up, so they may decide to open things up this week.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Joey Harrington |
Det
|
QB22
|
111th
|
The Vikings allow a lot of yardage and fantasy
points to opposing quarterbacks. They also score a lot of points,
leading to high scoring games. While I expect the Vikings to win
this game fairly easily, Harrington should post some good comeback
numbers and I would expect a couple or three touchdown passes
from him in this game.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Peyton Manning |
Ind
|
QB1
|
7th
|
Yes, Peyton Manning is on pace to have the best fantasy
season of any QB in the history of the NFL, and yes, there is no
way you're going to bench him for any reason, let alone my recommendation
in this feature. However, every player has an off week or two and
from what I've seen of the attacking Chicago defense, combined with
the windy confines of Soldier Field, I predict a rare mediocre day
from Peyton. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Donovan McNabb |
Phi
|
QB3
|
18th
|
McNabb is having a great season, but runs into
a defensive powerhouse this week when he faces the Washington
Redskins. The Skins are in the top 10 in nearly every defensive
category, and are top five in yards per pass attempt and passing
touchdowns surrendered. They also have the speed at linebacker
to contain McNabb when he takes off to run.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Aaron Brooks |
NO
|
QB11
|
70th
|
Brooks has thrown for just six TDs the past six
games, and will struggle against the Broncos this weekend. Denver
has quietly put together an excellent pass defense, ranking second
in the league in passing yards allowed and third in passing touchdowns
allowed. Even at home, Brooks looks like a very risky start, and
one without much upside.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Aaron Brooks |
NO
|
QB11
|
70th
|
Denver has a very good defense - much better than
the Kansas City defense that Brooks was able to occasionally exploit
in week 10. Denver was able to control David Carr and Andre Johnson
in week 9, and I would anticipate they will employ a similar strategy
against Brooks and Horn. Though Brooks' numbers could go up with
dump off passes to Deuce McAllister, I don't anticipate many deep
passes against Champ Bailey and the Denver safeties, or successful
passing in the red zone.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
T.J. Duckett |
Atl
|
RB31
|
84th
|
T.J. Duckett has quietly reemerged as a part of the
Falcons offensive attack, and what's most encouraging is that it's
come at a time when Warrick Dunn isn't hobbled by injury. Last week
Duckett scored two touchdowns and appears to have worked his way
into the role of short yardage back that most of us predicted for
him during the preseason. Against a Giants defense that wasn't particularly
stingy against opposing runners in the first place, but now has
lost it's top two defensive linemen (Strahan and Washington), I
would be surprised if Duckett doesn't taste the endzone again. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Kevin Jones |
Det
|
RB32
|
88th
|
After a slow start due to injury, Kevin Jones
has worked himself into the featured RB position for the Lions,
and this week faces a Minnesota defense that is soft against the
run. The Vikings have surrendered 4.85 yards per carry this year
along with 12 rushing touchdowns. Jones should be good for 70+
yards this week and is better than even money to score a touchdown.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Kevin Jones |
Det
|
RB32
|
88th
|
Jones was impressive against a tough Jags D, rushing
nineteen times for eighty-one yards. Against an awful Vikes run
D, Jones should hit the century mark for the first time in his
career. Ahman Green torched Minnesota for 145 rushing yards on
just 21 carries, so it's clear the Vikings haven't been playing
much defense lately.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Thomas Jones |
Chi
|
RB26
|
46th
|
Last week's call of Blaylock was a slam dunk.
This week's call of Thomas Jones to come back from injury and
be big against the Indianapolis defense seems like an equally
simple call. The bottom line is that the Bears go to Jones all
game long, in every situation. Even if the team is down by a bunch
of TDs, Jones seems like an easy call to have a big day.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Ahman Green |
GB
|
RB5
|
5th
|
How can I project Ahman Green to disappoint in a week
when he faces the porous Houston Texans defense? Surprisingly the
Texans allow the 5th lowest points to opposing running backs; it's
the passing attack where they are horrific (23 passing TDs allowed
through 9 games). The Packers will score points through the air,
and Green won't get the touches necessary to justify his typically
lofty spot among our rankings. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Marshall Faulk |
StL
|
RB18
|
27th
|
Faulk is coming off his best game of the year,
having rushed for 139 yards against the Seahawks. He faces a significantly
tougher run defense this week when he takes on the Bills. The
Bills have allowed only three rushing touchdowns all year, the
fewest in the NFL. They are also holding opposing RBs to fewer
than 3.7 yards per carry.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Lee Suggs |
Cle
|
RB21
|
36th
|
The 2004 Jets defense is leaps and bounds better
than the unit they had last year. After ranking 29th against the
run in 2003, they are currently fifth--and shut down Jamal Lewis
last week. Coming off a bad loss, the Jets should be focused and
motivated. Suggs won't have an easy time this weekend hitting
the 100 yard mark.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Marshall Faulk |
StL
|
RB18
|
27th
|
The Buffalo run defense was embarrassed in week
10 by Corey Dillon. But that was in New England. This week, at
home, against the Rams, I believe the Bills will show their mettle
and justify their #3 ranking in fantasy points against for running
backs. The Bills may be toasted through the air by Bulger, but
I am willing to gamble that they will prevent big ground yardage
from Faulk. With Stephen Jackson getting most of the goalline
carries, Faulk may have a poor outing.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Eddie Kennison |
KC
|
WR34
|
93rd
|
Eddie Kennison has been lights out the last two weeks
catching a combined 13 receptions for 225 yards and 1 TD (both 100+
yard games). He's reemerged as Trent Green's favorite WR target.
Playing at home against a Patriots secondary that is starting an
undrafted rookie and a practice squad player at CB; Kennison is
a great start as your WR2 or WR3 this week. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
David Patten |
NE
|
WR40
|
112th
|
Patten is a big-play threat going against a Chiefs'
defense that is prone to surrender big plays. The Chiefs have
given up 7.98 yards per pass attempt this year (31st in league)
and have surrendered 17 touchdown receptions (27th in league).
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Marcus Robinson |
Min
|
WR41
|
114th
|
Playing in the Metrodome against a bad Lions D,
"MROB" should have one of his big games of the year
this weekend. Robinson has developed the reputation as a guy that
explodes one week, and then disappears for a month. The last time
Robinson played the Lions, he had eleven catches for 170 yards
and three touchdowns. OK, that was in 1999--but without Moss for
another week, it's time for Robinson to explode.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Donald Driver |
GB
|
WR33
|
92nd
|
With Javon Walker getting so much attention, someone
is free - I believe that someone has been Driver. Driver has not
been heard from much the last few weeks, but the Texans pass defense
is really poor, and they give up a lot of fantasy points to opposing
wide receivers. I believe that Favre will rediscover Driver this
week in the red zone - a TD and 40-60 yards should put Driver
above the baseline.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Anquan Boldin |
Ari
|
WR24
|
66th
|
Anquan Boldin is back on the field, but he's still
not the same player that caught more than 100 passes as a rookie
in 2003. Right now, he's a viable second option to Larry Fitzgerald,
and Bryant Johnson has been oft targeted too. To rely on Boldin
making a big impact this week, against a Panthers secondary that
allows the fewest points to opposing WRs in the NFL seems foolish. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Keyshawn Johnson |
Dal
|
WR28
|
73rd
|
Jason Witten, not Keyshawn Johnson, is the primary
pass receiver in the Cowboys' offense right now. Moreover, Keyshawn
is facing perhaps the best pass defense in the league this week
when he goes against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are allowing
only 5.56 yards per attempt this season (lowest in the NFL), and
have given up only six touchdown receptions all year.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Keyshawn Johnson |
Dal
|
WR28
|
73rd
|
Key was my choice here last week too, so if it's
not broken I won't fix it. Johnson will have a very difficult
time against the Ravens defense, who will feast on a one-dimensional
offense. The Cowboys look disoriented and defeated, and I'm not
ready to start Keyshawn in too many leagues right now.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Keyshawn Johnson |
Dal
|
WR28
|
73rd
|
Dallas appears to be falling apart at the seams.
Now they go on the road into Baltimore, which has a simply smothering
pass defense. They also play in very low scoring games. Keyshawn
can handle the physical Baltimore secondary, but his quarterbacks
may not be able to handle the pass rush, and he could see double
teams all day long. A very difficult passing day, and a defensive
contest, rarely lends to many fantasy points for wide receivers.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Aaron Shea |
Cle
|
TE19
|
166th
|
Aaron Shea has quietly had a productive season, scoring
touchdowns in 3 of his six games played. While Shea isn't someone
to start over a top 10 QB most weeks, he's not a bad option if you
rotate your TEs and/or have need of an injury fill in. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Doug Jolley |
Oak
|
TE15
|
140th
|
Jolley has become one of the few legitimate weapons
on a generally poor offense. He scored a touchdown against the
Chargers when the teams met three weeks ago, and was the only
player frequently getting open against the Chargers secondary.
Look for the Raiders to go back to him this week.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
L.J. Smith |
Phi
|
TE18
|
159th
|
Smith and the Eagles play the best defense in
the NFC this week. The Redskins don't give up many mistakes, and
are very aggressive. Watch Philadelphia try and keep the Skins
off balance by dumping it off to Smith and TE Chad Lewis.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Daniel Graham |
NE
|
TE20
|
176th
|
He has been virtually invisible the last bunch
of weeks after starting the year looking like one of the top TEs
in the league. This week, New England goes into Kansas City, where
I expect a very high scoring game. It is hard to predict Graham
to suddenly reemerge as a force, but I will make this my one "gut
call" for the week. With all the offense I expect in this
game, one TD from Graham should be enough to launch him above
the baseline.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Dallas Clark |
Ind
|
TE7
|
71st
|
OK, so my prediction for a Clark disappointment was
a week too early (if you took my advice last week, I apologize)
but the fact remains that he's no better than the 4th option in
the Colts passing attack. Against a very tough Chicago defense in
the windy confines of Soldier Field, this is the week you'll wish
you started your other TE. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Dallas Clark |
Ind
|
TE7
|
71st
|
Clark is coming off a huge week, having caught
two touchdowns and going over 100 yards against the Texans. But
he faces a Chicago Bear defense this week that is playing inspired
football right now. The Bears should look to take the underneath
passes away and force Manning to look downfield. Manning may still
get his numbers, but Clark should have an off week.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Jeb Putzier |
Den
|
TE11
|
120th
|
It's hard to expect a whole lot out of Putzier
this weekend. Denver's averaging over ten more points per game
at home and Putzier hasn't had a four catch game since week three.
Facing the Saints in New Orleans this week, you can probably find
a better option.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Jermaine Wiggins |
Min
|
TE9
|
96th
|
Man, I have been way off in this category by relying
on fantasy points against to TEs. This week, I will go with Wiggins
because the Detroit run defense is so weak and because they do
a good job against the TE from a fantasy perspective. Wiggins
has been on fire lately with Moss out, but so has WR Burleson.
Since I expect the Vikings to be able to run a lot more at home
this week, I think Wiggins will be used significantly less in
the passing game.
|
|