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Beyond the Baseline



Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Aaron Brooks
NO
QB13
76th
Aaron Brooks, like the rest of the Saints, has been a mystery wrapped in an enigma this season. But this is a team that can look fantastic just when you think they're completely misbegotten (and terrible just when you expect them to shine). So, entering this week with a meager 4-7 record, I really think the Saints are going to put together a strong showing against the Panthers, after all, no one is expecting them to.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Kerry Collins
Oak
QB16
87th
The Chiefs are surrendering a league-worst 8.52 yards per pass attempt, and have given up 20 passing TDs this year. Meanwhile, Kerry Collins is starting to get the hang of things in Oakland; he's passed for 566 yards and six touchdown passes in the last two weeks. Over the last five weeks, Collins has averaged 282 passing yards per game while the Chiefs have surrendered 344 per game. This weekend's game should be a high-scoring affair as the Raiders try to keep pace with the Chiefs' explosive passing attack.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Kerry Collins
Oak
QB16
87th
Collins should build on his breakout game against the Broncos by lighting up another AFC West rival. The Chiefs defense is as bad as it gets, allowing over 8.5 yards per attempt through the air. Collins should feel more comfortable in this offense now, and he's starting to develop a strong rapport with his young receivers. When Collins is on, he's still got one of the best arms in the league--and I think we might see him finish out the season on a high note.
Marc Levin Selects....
Steve McNair
Ten
QB15
83rd
McNair is back on the field and he looked pretty good against the Houston Texans. Though there has been some talk of him retiring after this year, I doubt that will affect his desire to whip up some stats against the division rival Colts. Luckily, the Colts give up a decent amount of FF points to opposing QBs, and they score so much that other teams often go to the pass a lot. That works for McNair, who can throw a lot and get a lot of FF stats if called upon.
Picks to finish BELOW
t
he Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Michael Vick
Atl
QB8
57th
If history is any indicator, the Bucs are Michael Vick's kryptonite. Although he's played well of late, I personally see this as a dangerous game for Vick and the Falcons as a team. Tampa Bay is too proud to simply lay down under Jon Gruden's watch, and a strong late season showing could propel them into wildcard contention in a top heavy NFC. I'm sure most people with Vick on their rosters are going to start him, let's just hope I'm wrong and he doesn't let you down as you make a push for the playoffs.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Michael Vick
Atl
QB8
57th
Vick has generally played well over the last four weeks after struggling in the first half of the season, but this week he runs into a Buccaneer defense that has held its opponents to an average of just 166 yards passing this season. When Vick faced the Bucs three weeks ago, he completed just 50% of his passes for 147 yards (1 TD, 1 INT). In four career games against the Bucs, Vick has never passed for more than 150 yards.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Michael Vick
Atl
QB8
57th
Vick is averaging just 103 passing yards in three career games against the Bucs. Expect an angry Tampa Bay defense, after a tough last minute loss to the Panthers. The Falcons aren't ready to cost, but they've just about clinched the playoffs, and a letdown this Sunday wouldn't be much of a surprise.
Marc Levin Selects....
Michael Vick
Atl
QB8
57th
Vick has been impressive lately in guiding the team to victories, and he has racked up decent FF stats, but mostly with his high yardage rushing games. The Buccaneers are one of the best teams in the league against the pass, and they give up only 14.1 FF points per game to opposing QBs. Unless Vick gets those legs going against the Bucs, he will end below the baseline this week. The Bucs have been historically pretty good at containing Vick, and I expect that trend to continue this week.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Nick Goings
Car
RB25
44th
RB starts off 5th on the depth chart, and plays fullback due to injuries. Although improbable, RB ends up starting at tailback and putting together consecutive 100 yard outings. When Reuben Droughns emerged earlier for Denver, his Cinderella story seemed one of a kind; yet, all of the sudden Nick Goings is doing the exact same thing for a Panthers team that was left for dead but now has faint playoff hopes thanks to a top heavy NFC. Goings is a solid start against the worst rushing defense in the NFL.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Nick Goings
Car
RB25
44th
In his two starts this season, Goings has averaged 113.5 rushing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. This week he faces an atrocious Saints defense that is giving up a league-worst 154 yards per game and has allowed 13 rushing touchdowns.
Chase Stuart Selects....
T.J. Duckett
Atl
RB31
84th
For a part-time player, Duckett has seen great success against the Bucs. His rookie year (and their Super Bowl season), he had 99 yards on twenty-three carries. Their first meeting this year, he had two touchdowns on fifty-three yards on twelve carries. If Atlanta gets close to the goalline, Duckett will probably score this weekend.
Marc Levin Selects....
Kevin Jones
Det
RB26
46th
I don't understand why Kevin Jones is listed below the baseline of RB24 on our top-200 list. His last few weeks have been really impressive in terms of yardage and he seems to finally be showing why he is expected to be the future feature back at the position for the Lions. He looks to have the same type of fantasy future for '04 as a guy like Thomas Jones - he is all his team has. That said, with middle of the pack defense Arizona coming into town - a defense that tends to underperform on the road - I expect Kevin Jones to easily reach into the top-24 RBs.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Fred Taylor
Jac
RB11
15th
Fred Taylor has already been relieved of his 3rd down duties AND no longer serves as the team's short yardage/goal line back. That equates to fewer chances for catches and TDs; never a good thing for someone you may be relying on to carry you into your playoffs. This week he faces a Steelers defense that should make life difficult for him, as the Steelers challenge Leftwich to beat them through the air.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Rudi Johnson
Cin
RB17
24th
Johnson is coming off a 202-yard rushing effort against the Browns, but could hit a speed bump this week against the stingy Ravens defense. The Ravens are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry, and have given up only six rushing TDs all year. Johnson should get plenty of carries this week, but is an underdog to find the endzone.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Rudi Johnson
Cin
RB17
24th
Johnson had his best game of the season last week, but things move fast in today's NFL. Coming off a loss that damages the Ravens playoff hopes, I think we're going to see the Ravens show up with their "A" game. That means Ray Lewis and company won't allow many points.
Marc Levin Selects....
Rudi Johnson
Cin
RB17
24th
Rudi racked up a phenomenal number of yards last week in the offensive shoot-out of the decade against the Browns. This week, the squad goes into Baltimore. Things will be radically different in this week's game for the Bengals. I am also considering the "return to norm" factor that generally chases career performances - how many times did Corey Dillon come off a huge day to post pedestrian numbers the next week? Against the Ravens, that common statistical situation will be magnified.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Keary Colbert
Car
WR40
112th
Let's see, Colbert continues to make big plays when the team needs him most; and they face one of the worst defenses in the league this week (the Saints) in a matchup of 4-7 teams that actually has playoff implications in a weakened NFC. I would say you could do much worse than Colbert as your WR2/WR3 this weekend.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Santana Moss
NYJ
WR32
86th
Moss got off to a slow start this year, but in his last four games he's averaged four catches for 91 yards and 0.5 touchdowns -- a cool 12 fantasy points per games in standard scoring leagues. This week Chad Pennington should return to the lineup, and the Jets will face a Texan defense that is ranked 29th in passing yards allowed, 28th in yards per pass allowed, and 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Santana Moss
NYJ
WR32
86th
Moss has been a disappointment this year, but he likely sees his quarterback return against a bad Texans defense. The Jets offense has been conservative in recent weeks, but they'll likely need a few touchdowns to beat Houston. Moss is the big play threat in the offense, and could come up with a big play or two for a score.
Marc Levin Selects....
Santana Moss
NYJ
WR32
86th
Moss' opponent this week - the Houston Texans - are dead last in FF points given up to opposing WRs. Meanwhile, Moss seemed to connect with his QB again last week as he had a decent fantasy day. Another decent fantasy day against one of the league's worst pass defenses in terms of FF points against for QBs and WRs, and I believe Moss will easily end up above the WR30.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Nate Burleson
Min
WR24
66th
Burleson played well in Randy Moss' absence, but don't expect him to provide consistent fantasy caliber production now that Moss is back into the mix. While Burleson will remain a part of the offense, expect the Vikings to pound the ball against a Bears team that should be beatable as long as the Vikes score 14 points or better.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Eric Moulds
Buf
WR21
59th
Moulds is coming off a very good game against the Seahawks; he caught 8 passes for 93 yards and had zero drops. But this week he faces probably the best cornerback tandem in the league in Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison. The Dolphins are allowing a league-low 152 yards passing per game, and are giving up only 5.53 yards per pass attempt.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Roy Williams
Det
WR25
67th
Roy Williams is a beast, but his outlook for this week isn't very good. The Lions passing attack has gone from bad to nonexistent, and neither Joey Harrington nor Mike McMahon look very good. The Cardinals pass D is pretty good, and this one looks like it will be a pretty low scoring and ugly game.
Marc Levin Selects....
Keenan McCardell
SD
WR20
58th
While it is true that Keenan fit in real well with the Chargers initially, LT seems to be back in force, Gates is clearly the team's top receiving threat, and Eric Parker has been incorporated heavily into the game plan. Against the Broncos and Champ Bailey, McCardell will struggle to find himself open. The team knows Bailey can't stand on an island, and it is now sloughing a safety over to McCardell's side with Bailey in coverage - that will mean a low number of targets will be going McCardell's way.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Erron Kinney
Ten
TE17
150th
Erron Kinney returned with a vengeance last week, catching 2 touchdowns. It was no coincidence that Steve McNair put together a solid game either; as Kinney's presence in the lineup gives the Titans a necessary option to keep the secondary from overplaying Derrick Mason on every down. Kinney has a great matchup against a Colts defense that can be taken advantage of.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Doug Jolley
Oak
TE19
166th
Jolley has only had one game so far this year in which he's had more than 50 yards receiving. He could get his second this weekend against a Kansas City defense that is really struggling against the pass. Jolley has fair quickness and is a nice target near the goal line.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Steve Heiden
Cle
TE30
254th
Anytime you catch seven balls for three touchdowns, you're going to get noticed. With rookie Luke McCown getting his first start, he might look to the hot hands of Heiden against a tough Pats D.
Marc Levin Selects....
Bubba Franks
GB
TE13
130th
Franks is on a mini-streak of TD catches and may be reemerging as Favre's favorite red zone target with Ahman Green injured. I expect against Philadelphia's tough pass defense that the underneath route to Franks may be used more - or they will be keeping him in more for pass protection. Either way, I predict another TD catch this week from Franks, which should be enough to launch him into the top-12 for TEs.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Jeremy Shockey
NYG
TE4
64th
In "the Year of the Tight End" Shockey is having a good, not great season. But his combination of dropped passes with Eli Manning's oh-so-painful growing pains makes for a tough spot if you're counting on big production from Shockey to help your playoff push.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Randy McMichael
Mia
TE7
71st
McMichael got off to a very hot start this year, but has cooled off a bit over the last three weeks. The Bills, meanwhile, are playing good defense and should hold McMichael to fewer than 50 yards with to touchdowns.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Jeremy Shockey
NYG
TE4
64th
Shockey's done well against the Redskins, but I can't advocate starting any Giant besides Tiki Barber these days. The Redskins pass D is very good, and expect Greg Williams to make Eli Manning's day a very long one.
Marc Levin Selects....
Jermaine Wiggins
Min
TE6
68th
I have been really striking out in this category, so I feel like I am picking in the dark, but I'll give it a whirl. This week, I am going to pick Wiggins for a combination of the fact that Chicago still seems to cover opposing TEs pretty well - they held Jason Witten without a catch for three quarters on Turkey Day - and because Randy Moss is back. Randy is obviously Culpepper's primary target, especially in the red zone, and I expect Wiggins will be left to the wayside as Randy will come out this week with a statement game that he is healthy.
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