Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Aaron Brooks |
NO
|
QB13
|
76th
|
Aaron Brooks, like the rest of the Saints, has been
a mystery wrapped in an enigma this season. But this is a team that
can look fantastic just when you think they're completely misbegotten
(and terrible just when you expect them to shine). So, entering
this week with a meager 4-7 record, I really think the Saints are
going to put together a strong showing against the Panthers, after
all, no one is expecting them to. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Kerry Collins |
Oak
|
QB16
|
87th
|
The Chiefs are surrendering a league-worst 8.52
yards per pass attempt, and have given up 20 passing TDs this
year. Meanwhile, Kerry Collins is starting to get the hang of
things in Oakland; he's passed for 566 yards and six touchdown
passes in the last two weeks. Over the last five weeks, Collins
has averaged 282 passing yards per game while the Chiefs have
surrendered 344 per game. This weekend's game should be a high-scoring
affair as the Raiders try to keep pace with the Chiefs' explosive
passing attack.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Kerry Collins |
Oak
|
QB16
|
87th
|
Collins should build on his breakout game against
the Broncos by lighting up another AFC West rival. The Chiefs
defense is as bad as it gets, allowing over 8.5 yards per attempt
through the air. Collins should feel more comfortable in this
offense now, and he's starting to develop a strong rapport with
his young receivers. When Collins is on, he's still got one of
the best arms in the league--and I think we might see him finish
out the season on a high note.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Steve McNair |
Ten
|
QB15
|
83rd
|
McNair is back on the field and he looked pretty
good against the Houston Texans. Though there has been some talk
of him retiring after this year, I doubt that will affect his
desire to whip up some stats against the division rival Colts.
Luckily, the Colts give up a decent amount of FF points to opposing
QBs, and they score so much that other teams often go to the pass
a lot. That works for McNair, who can throw a lot and get a lot
of FF stats if called upon.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Michael Vick |
Atl
|
QB8
|
57th
|
If history is any indicator, the Bucs are Michael
Vick's kryptonite. Although he's played well of late, I personally
see this as a dangerous game for Vick and the Falcons as a team.
Tampa Bay is too proud to simply lay down under Jon Gruden's watch,
and a strong late season showing could propel them into wildcard
contention in a top heavy NFC. I'm sure most people with Vick on
their rosters are going to start him, let's just hope I'm wrong
and he doesn't let you down as you make a push for the playoffs. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Michael Vick |
Atl
|
QB8
|
57th
|
Vick has generally played well over the last four
weeks after struggling in the first half of the season, but this
week he runs into a Buccaneer defense that has held its opponents
to an average of just 166 yards passing this season. When Vick
faced the Bucs three weeks ago, he completed just 50% of his passes
for 147 yards (1 TD, 1 INT). In four career games against the
Bucs, Vick has never passed for more than 150 yards.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Michael Vick |
Atl
|
QB8
|
57th
|
Vick is averaging just 103 passing yards in three
career games against the Bucs. Expect an angry Tampa Bay defense,
after a tough last minute loss to the Panthers. The Falcons aren't
ready to cost, but they've just about clinched the playoffs, and
a letdown this Sunday wouldn't be much of a surprise.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Michael Vick |
Atl
|
QB8
|
57th
|
Vick has been impressive lately in guiding the
team to victories, and he has racked up decent FF stats, but mostly
with his high yardage rushing games. The Buccaneers are one of
the best teams in the league against the pass, and they give up
only 14.1 FF points per game to opposing QBs. Unless Vick gets
those legs going against the Bucs, he will end below the baseline
this week. The Bucs have been historically pretty good at containing
Vick, and I expect that trend to continue this week.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Nick Goings |
Car
|
RB25
|
44th
|
RB starts off 5th on the depth chart, and plays fullback
due to injuries. Although improbable, RB ends up starting at tailback
and putting together consecutive 100 yard outings. When Reuben Droughns
emerged earlier for Denver, his Cinderella story seemed one of a
kind; yet, all of the sudden Nick Goings is doing the exact same
thing for a Panthers team that was left for dead but now has faint
playoff hopes thanks to a top heavy NFC. Goings is a solid start
against the worst rushing defense in the NFL. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Nick Goings |
Car
|
RB25
|
44th
|
In his two starts this season, Goings has averaged
113.5 rushing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. This week he
faces an atrocious Saints defense that is giving up a league-worst
154 yards per game and has allowed 13 rushing touchdowns.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
T.J. Duckett |
Atl
|
RB31
|
84th
|
For a part-time player, Duckett has seen great
success against the Bucs. His rookie year (and their Super Bowl
season), he had 99 yards on twenty-three carries. Their first
meeting this year, he had two touchdowns on fifty-three yards
on twelve carries. If Atlanta gets close to the goalline, Duckett
will probably score this weekend.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Kevin Jones |
Det
|
RB26
|
46th
|
I don't understand why Kevin Jones is listed below
the baseline of RB24 on our top-200 list. His last few weeks have
been really impressive in terms of yardage and he seems to finally
be showing why he is expected to be the future feature back at
the position for the Lions. He looks to have the same type of
fantasy future for '04 as a guy like Thomas Jones - he is all
his team has. That said, with middle of the pack defense Arizona
coming into town - a defense that tends to underperform on the
road - I expect Kevin Jones to easily reach into the top-24 RBs.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Fred Taylor |
Jac
|
RB11
|
15th
|
Fred Taylor has already been relieved of his 3rd down
duties AND no longer serves as the team's short yardage/goal line
back. That equates to fewer chances for catches and TDs; never a
good thing for someone you may be relying on to carry you into your
playoffs. This week he faces a Steelers defense that should make
life difficult for him, as the Steelers challenge Leftwich to beat
them through the air. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Rudi Johnson |
Cin
|
RB17
|
24th
|
Johnson is coming off a 202-yard rushing effort
against the Browns, but could hit a speed bump this week against
the stingy Ravens defense. The Ravens are allowing only 3.5 yards
per carry, and have given up only six rushing TDs all year. Johnson
should get plenty of carries this week, but is an underdog to
find the endzone.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Rudi Johnson |
Cin
|
RB17
|
24th
|
Johnson had his best game of the season last week,
but things move fast in today's NFL. Coming off a loss that damages
the Ravens playoff hopes, I think we're going to see the Ravens
show up with their "A" game. That means Ray Lewis and
company won't allow many points.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Rudi Johnson |
Cin
|
RB17
|
24th
|
Rudi racked up a phenomenal number of yards last
week in the offensive shoot-out of the decade against the Browns.
This week, the squad goes into Baltimore. Things will be radically
different in this week's game for the Bengals. I am also considering
the "return to norm" factor that generally chases career
performances - how many times did Corey Dillon come off a huge
day to post pedestrian numbers the next week? Against the Ravens,
that common statistical situation will be magnified.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Keary Colbert |
Car
|
WR40
|
112th
|
Let's see, Colbert continues to make big plays when
the team needs him most; and they face one of the worst defenses
in the league this week (the Saints) in a matchup of 4-7 teams that
actually has playoff implications in a weakened NFC. I would say
you could do much worse than Colbert as your WR2/WR3 this weekend. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Santana Moss |
NYJ
|
WR32
|
86th
|
Moss got off to a slow start this year, but in
his last four games he's averaged four catches for 91 yards and
0.5 touchdowns -- a cool 12 fantasy points per games in standard
scoring leagues. This week Chad Pennington should return to the
lineup, and the Jets will face a Texan defense that is ranked
29th in passing yards allowed, 28th in yards per pass allowed,
and 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Santana Moss |
NYJ
|
WR32
|
86th
|
Moss has been a disappointment this year, but
he likely sees his quarterback return against a bad Texans defense.
The Jets offense has been conservative in recent weeks, but they'll
likely need a few touchdowns to beat Houston. Moss is the big
play threat in the offense, and could come up with a big play
or two for a score.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Santana Moss |
NYJ
|
WR32
|
86th
|
Moss' opponent this week - the Houston Texans
- are dead last in FF points given up to opposing WRs. Meanwhile,
Moss seemed to connect with his QB again last week as he had a
decent fantasy day. Another decent fantasy day against one of
the league's worst pass defenses in terms of FF points against
for QBs and WRs, and I believe Moss will easily end up above the
WR30.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Nate Burleson |
Min
|
WR24
|
66th
|
Burleson played well in Randy Moss' absence, but don't
expect him to provide consistent fantasy caliber production now
that Moss is back into the mix. While Burleson will remain a part
of the offense, expect the Vikings to pound the ball against a Bears
team that should be beatable as long as the Vikes score 14 points
or better. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Eric Moulds |
Buf
|
WR21
|
59th
|
Moulds is coming off a very good game against
the Seahawks; he caught 8 passes for 93 yards and had zero drops.
But this week he faces probably the best cornerback tandem in
the league in Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison. The Dolphins are
allowing a league-low 152 yards passing per game, and are giving
up only 5.53 yards per pass attempt.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Roy Williams |
Det
|
WR25
|
67th
|
Roy Williams is a beast, but his outlook for this
week isn't very good. The Lions passing attack has gone from bad
to nonexistent, and neither Joey Harrington nor Mike McMahon look
very good. The Cardinals pass D is pretty good, and this one looks
like it will be a pretty low scoring and ugly game.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Keenan McCardell |
SD
|
WR20
|
58th
|
While it is true that Keenan fit in real well
with the Chargers initially, LT seems to be back in force, Gates
is clearly the team's top receiving threat, and Eric Parker has
been incorporated heavily into the game plan. Against the Broncos
and Champ Bailey, McCardell will struggle to find himself open.
The team knows Bailey can't stand on an island, and it is now
sloughing a safety over to McCardell's side with Bailey in coverage
- that will mean a low number of targets will be going McCardell's
way.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Erron Kinney |
Ten
|
TE17
|
150th
|
Erron Kinney returned with a vengeance last week,
catching 2 touchdowns. It was no coincidence that Steve McNair put
together a solid game either; as Kinney's presence in the lineup
gives the Titans a necessary option to keep the secondary from overplaying
Derrick Mason on every down. Kinney has a great matchup against
a Colts defense that can be taken advantage of. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Doug Jolley |
Oak
|
TE19
|
166th
|
Jolley has only had one game so far this year
in which he's had more than 50 yards receiving. He could get his
second this weekend against a Kansas City defense that is really
struggling against the pass. Jolley has fair quickness and is
a nice target near the goal line.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Steve Heiden |
Cle
|
TE30
|
254th
|
Anytime you catch seven balls for three touchdowns,
you're going to get noticed. With rookie Luke McCown getting his
first start, he might look to the hot hands of Heiden against
a tough Pats D.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Bubba Franks |
GB
|
TE13
|
130th
|
Franks is on a mini-streak of TD catches and may
be reemerging as Favre's favorite red zone target with Ahman Green
injured. I expect against Philadelphia's tough pass defense that
the underneath route to Franks may be used more - or they will
be keeping him in more for pass protection. Either way, I predict
another TD catch this week from Franks, which should be enough
to launch him into the top-12 for TEs.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Jeremy Shockey |
NYG
|
TE4
|
64th
|
In "the Year of the Tight End" Shockey is
having a good, not great season. But his combination of dropped
passes with Eli Manning's oh-so-painful growing pains makes for
a tough spot if you're counting on big production from Shockey to
help your playoff push. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Randy McMichael |
Mia
|
TE7
|
71st
|
McMichael got off to a very hot start this year,
but has cooled off a bit over the last three weeks. The Bills,
meanwhile, are playing good defense and should hold McMichael
to fewer than 50 yards with to touchdowns.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Jeremy Shockey |
NYG
|
TE4
|
64th
|
Shockey's done well against the Redskins, but
I can't advocate starting any Giant besides Tiki Barber these
days. The Redskins pass D is very good, and expect Greg Williams
to make Eli Manning's day a very long one.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Jermaine Wiggins |
Min
|
TE6
|
68th
|
I have been really striking out in this category,
so I feel like I am picking in the dark, but I'll give it a whirl.
This week, I am going to pick Wiggins for a combination of the
fact that Chicago still seems to cover opposing TEs pretty well
- they held Jason Witten without a catch for three quarters on
Turkey Day - and because Randy Moss is back. Randy is obviously
Culpepper's primary target, especially in the red zone, and I
expect Wiggins will be left to the wayside as Randy will come
out this week with a statement game that he is healthy.
|
|