Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Chad Pennington |
NYJ
|
QB16
|
87th
|
Pennington is too good a QB with too much riding on
these final three games not to play up to his reputation as one
of the best young signal callers in the game. He faces a Seahawks
team that has been ineffective without Grant Wistrom in the lineup;
and Wistrom is again out, probably for the remainder of the season.
If you're deciding between two middle of the road QBs for your fantasy
playoffs this week, Pennington is a legitimate top 8-10 option. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Kyle Boller |
Bal
|
QB19
|
99th
|
The Ravens' offense is starting to come together.
Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap are back, and Kyle Boller is playing
like a first-round draft pick is supposed to. Look for Boller
and the Ravens to have some success using play-action. They will
take some shots down the field against the Colts' secondary, and
will probably need a few big plays to keep pace with the Colts'
offense and stay in the playoff hunt.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Chad Pennington |
NYJ
|
QB16
|
87th
|
Pennington has taken a lot of criticism after
his awful performance against the Steelers, and I look for him
to bounce back against the Seahawks. Seattle is flying across
the country for an early game, and their defense is both banged
up and ineffective. Look for the Jets to open up the playbook
a bit too, as they'll want to quiet all the Pennington criticism.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Kerry Collins |
Oak
|
QB15
|
83rd
|
Since I got burned by him mid-season in one head
to head league, I have been fairly down on Kerry Collins, but
you have to be impressed with the fantasy numbers he has been
able to put up recently. After the passing spectacles the Tennessee
Titans have been involved in the last few weeks, there is no reason
to think this week will be any different - especially in Oakland.
Two teams with no playoffs to play for may let their young wideout
talent shine. I look for both QBs in this Oak-Tenn pairing to
have very nice outings.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Aaron Brooks |
NO
|
QB12
|
74th
|
Aaron Brooks is an enigma. His talent is irrefutable,
yet his teams have been perennial underachievers. Supporters contend
he is merely one small part of a larger problem within the Saints,
detractors point to the fact that Brooks was the player the Saints
chose to send to leadership training school, and who is supposed
to command the huddle. In any event, as much as I would like to
be wrong, I think we see Aaron Brooks further condemn himself in
New Orleans over the final three weeks, starting on the road against
a tough Bucs defense. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Trent Green |
KC
|
QB4
|
40th
|
Trent Green has played pretty well recently but
often struggles against the Broncos. In their first meeting this
year, Green was held to 176 yards passing and no touchdowns. On
the year, the Broncos have allowed fewer than 6 yards per pass
attempt, and have given up only 12 passing touchdowns. The Broncos
will hold Tony Gonzalez in check and keep Green to a subpar performance.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Brett Favre |
GB
|
QB6
|
51st
|
Favre is always capable of a big game, but he's
been slumping of late. He failed to reach 200 yards in his last
two games, while throwing just one TD and two interceptions. The
Jaguars are fighting for their playoff lives, and have a lot more
to lose here than the Packers. Additionally, Green Bay may be
looking ahead as they have an early game next week against the
Vikings, which should decide the NFC North.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Michael Vick |
Atl
|
QB5
|
42nd
|
The Falcons clinched their division last week,
and Michael Vick played a nice mistake free game, though he did
not have overwhelming FF numbers. This week, the team is involved
in a prime time showdown with divisional rival, and resurgent
playoff contender, the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have been
very good against the pass all year long, including in a game
against the Falcons earlier in the year. If the Panthers want
to keep their playoff hopes alive, containing Vick and winning
this game is a must. I think if the Panthers control Vick's scrambling
as they did in the first meeting, Vick will have a relatively
poor fantasy outing. Of course, that's always the big "if"
with Vick's fantasy numbers.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Maurice Hicks |
SF
|
RB28
|
77th
|
Maurice Hicks may have put the nail in Kevan Barlow's
coffin last week, going over 100 yards with ease and showing the
power and vision that many expected of Barlow after signing a 4-year,
$20 million contract. Hicks faces tough Redskins defense, but isn't
a horrible start if you're desperate for a RB3 or Utility option. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Emmitt Smith |
Ari
|
RB26
|
46th
|
Emmitt Smith will prove this week that he still
has a game or two left in him. The Rams are giving up 137 rushing
yards per game and 4.73 yards per carry this year, among the league's
worst in both categories. It is too much to expect Emmitt to rush
for over 100 yards this week, but he should be good for one TD,
and possibly two.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Duce Staley |
Pit
|
RB30
|
82nd
|
Staley gets healthier every week, and he should
be utilized early and often against the Giants. Staley when healthy
was good for 100 rushing yards per week, and I think he hits that
plateau against on Saturday.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Steven Jackson |
StL
|
RB27
|
55th
|
Slim pickins' this week at the RB24 and lower
level - there are a ton of backs who are, simply put, question
marks to play this week. However, as of this writing, things were
looking very good for Steven Jackson to be back in the lineup
for the Rams. And since it seems clear that HC Martz would love
to rest Marshal's knees for one more week, my instincts tell me
Jackson will start and will be a good play this week against a
middle of the road Cardinals rush defense. Of course, you will
probably know later in the week if it is Jackson or Faulk going
this weekend, so swap in Marshal here if Jackson is authoritatively
ruled out of this Sunday's game.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Rudi Johnson |
Cin
|
RB23
|
39th
|
Rudi Johnson faces a Bills defense that is allowing
the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing runners, and also will
be without Carson Palmer in the lineup. My guess is the Bills play
the run tough and force a rusty Jon Kitna to beat them; an unlikely
outcome to be sure. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Tiki Barber |
NYG
|
RB16
|
24th
|
Barber has seen his production drop sharply over
the past two weeks as the Giants' offense has struggled badly.
This week he faces the NFL's best run defense. The Steelers are
allowing fewer than 80 rushing yards per game (2nd in the league),
only 3.52 yards per carry (4th in the league), and have given
up only 4 rushing TDs on the season (tied for 1st).
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Tiki Barber |
NYG
|
RB16
|
24th
|
Barber has seen his production drop significantly
since Eli Manning took over. Playing against the best run D in
football this weekend, don't expect much out of Barber against
the Steelers. This game means a lot more to Pittsburgh than the
Giants, who seem to have already cashed in their season.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Tiki Barber |
NYG
|
RB16
|
24th
|
I am very happy to have been dead wrong on Deuce
in this spot last week. Unfortunately, I am not taking as big
a risk on this week's pick. The Giants are playing against the
best rush defense in the league in Pittsburgh, and the team won't
have to worry about getting beat in the air if they concentrate
on Tiki because Eli Manning has simply not given the run game
any support. It was nice for Tiki owners while it lasted, but
this is going to be a rough FF playoff game for any of you who
own him.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Lee Evans |
Buf
|
WR31
|
85th
|
Evans has come alive of late, and may be ready to
be a legitimate WR2 in Buffalo sooner rather than later. Meanwhile
the Bills continue their improbable push for the playoffs against
the Bengals, who are allowing plenty of yards and scores through
the air. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Roy Williams |
Det
|
WR33
|
92nd
|
Roy Williams hasn't scored a touchdown in his last
six games; but that particular streak should end this week when
he faces the Vikings. Minnesota has allowed 23 passing touchdowns
this season, and is well below average in every major defensive
category. |
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Keenan McCardell |
SD
|
WR37
|
104th
|
McCardell goes against the Cleveland Browns. I'm
not sure if you're aware, but the Cleveland Browns stopped playing
nearly a month ago. They've given up 137 points the past three
weeks, and it took them nearly 60 minutes to gain five total yards
of offense last week. This team has nothing left, and expect the
Chargers offense to torch them for at least thirty points.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Joey Galloway |
TB
|
WR46
|
128th
|
Boy was I on the money for WRs last week - Drew
Bennett wasn't just above the baseline - he was the #1 receiver
for the week with a HUGE MNF game. This week, I like Joey Galloway
to come up big against New Orleans. Galloway had a very nice 5
catch, 78 yard, 2 TD outing last week. He also seems to be seeing
the ball quite a bit in an offense that is finally "Gruden-style"
throwing the ball quite a bit. Against New Orleans, you can probably
count on the ball being thrown quite a bit - heck, Brian Griese
might have made an excellent choice for an above the baseline
QB pick. Simply put - play your Bucs against those Saints.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Jerry Porter |
Oak
|
WR26
|
69th
|
Jerry Porter simply isn't talented enough to justify
a spot in the starting lineup of a fantasy playoff contender. Remove
the fluky game against Denver in the snow, remove Ron Curry from
the Raiders lineup and you're left with a WR2/WR3 forced into playing
WR1. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
T.J. Houshmandzadeh |
Cin
|
WR22
|
61st
|
TJ Houshmandzadeh has been extremely hot recently:
he has over 300 yards receiving in his last two games. He will
come back to earth this week against a Buffalo Bills defense that
is allowing a league-low completion percentage of 54.8%, and a
league-low 5.59 yards per pass attempt.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
T.J. Houshmandzadeh |
Cin
|
WR22
|
61st
|
No doubt about it, Houshmanzadeh has been on fire
lately. Just as hot though, is that Buffalo defense. This game
features two AFC teams that would dominate in the NFC, but likely
will be sitting come early January. Still, the Bills defense probably
wins this battle, and it's Chad Johnson's turn for a big week.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Eric Moulds |
Buf
|
WR21
|
59th
|
My big risk call of Torry Holt to finish below
the baseline last week paid off big time - he had only 3 catches
for 28 yards. I should get double points for that one! I will
play it a little safer this week as Cincinnati sports a surprisingly
tough defense against opposing WRs and Eric Moulds has been slumping.
Both of these teams need the win to stay alive in the playoffs,
so I expect a close to the vest rushing contest between two hot
young RBs in McGahee and Johnson rather than an air duel between
Palmer and Bledsoe, who will both be asked to simply not lose
the game rather than try to win it.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Jeb Putzier |
Den
|
TE15
|
140th
|
Virtually anyone playing against the Chiefs defense
is a worthy start. Putzier has been hit or miss, but I would be
shocked if the Broncos don't come out guns blazing in a must win
game. Look for Plummer to hit Putzier across the deep middle a few
times, which will be enough to see Putzier crack the fantasy top
10 this week. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Jeb Putzier |
Den
|
TE15
|
140th
|
Start everybody associated with the Broncos' passing
game this week. That includes tight end Jeb Putzier. The Chiefs
are dead last in passing yards surrendered, yards per pass surrendered,
and are third-to-last in passing touchdowns surrendered.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Jeb Putzier |
Den
|
TE15
|
140th
|
As tight ends go, Putzier has developed into a
big play threat. He's averaging 16.0 yards per catch, and goes
up against one of the worst defenses in recent history. Denver-Kansas
City has all the makings of a shoot-out, and Putzier could get
a few long grabs.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Erron Kinney |
Ten
|
TE19
|
166th
|
Expect more double coverage on Drew Bennett, like
it will matter, but that may open up more Kinney underneath if
Derrick Mason's ankle continues to bother him . Kinney has been
worked into the passing game plan quite a bit recently as he is
third on the team in targets after (obviously) Bennett and Mason.
Against Oakland's soft pass defense, and considering Oakland is
the fourth worst team in terms of fantasy points given up to opposing
TEs, I look for Kinney to have enough targets to rise above the
baseline.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Randy McMichael |
Mia
|
TE7
|
71st
|
The Dolphins offense is simply too erratic under normal
circumstances to feel confident about McMichael's prospects. Factor
in a date with the Patriots and this is as good a week as any to
sit him. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Dallas Clark |
Ind
|
TE10
|
98th
|
I don't think any defense in the NFL can shut
down Peyton Manning and the Colts right now. But the Ravens will
come as close as anybody can. Manning will throw two or three
touchdowns to his receivers this week, but there won't be enough
for Dallas Clark to get in on the fun.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Randy McMichael |
Mia
|
TE7
|
71st
|
McMichael has cooled down after a strong start,
which has become a familiar refrain for him. Miami has been playing
well of late (for them), but New England's D is much too tough
for this Dolphins offense.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Jeremy Shockey |
NYG
|
TE6
|
68th
|
Last time I put Shockey in this category, he blew
up. I also have simply been atrocious at picking the right TE
in this category. Due to selfish reasons that he is my TE in a
couple of games, I am hoping my placing him here means another
good to great outing. Seriously, I have completely logical reasons
for his placement here that include: Eli Manning has looked pitiful,
the Steelers' LBs are the best cover LBs in the league, and the
Steelers are third best in the league against opposing TEs as
they give up only 3.8 standard FF points per game. So, let's hope
Shockey defies the logic pitted against him, but I fear a below
the baseline finish for him this weekend.
|
|