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Beyond the Baseline



Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Chad Pennington
NYJ
QB16
87th
Pennington is too good a QB with too much riding on these final three games not to play up to his reputation as one of the best young signal callers in the game. He faces a Seahawks team that has been ineffective without Grant Wistrom in the lineup; and Wistrom is again out, probably for the remainder of the season. If you're deciding between two middle of the road QBs for your fantasy playoffs this week, Pennington is a legitimate top 8-10 option.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Kyle Boller
Bal
QB19
99th
The Ravens' offense is starting to come together. Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap are back, and Kyle Boller is playing like a first-round draft pick is supposed to. Look for Boller and the Ravens to have some success using play-action. They will take some shots down the field against the Colts' secondary, and will probably need a few big plays to keep pace with the Colts' offense and stay in the playoff hunt.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Chad Pennington
NYJ
QB16
87th
Pennington has taken a lot of criticism after his awful performance against the Steelers, and I look for him to bounce back against the Seahawks. Seattle is flying across the country for an early game, and their defense is both banged up and ineffective. Look for the Jets to open up the playbook a bit too, as they'll want to quiet all the Pennington criticism.
Marc Levin Selects....
Kerry Collins
Oak
QB15
83rd
Since I got burned by him mid-season in one head to head league, I have been fairly down on Kerry Collins, but you have to be impressed with the fantasy numbers he has been able to put up recently. After the passing spectacles the Tennessee Titans have been involved in the last few weeks, there is no reason to think this week will be any different - especially in Oakland. Two teams with no playoffs to play for may let their young wideout talent shine. I look for both QBs in this Oak-Tenn pairing to have very nice outings.
Picks to finish BELOW
t
he Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Aaron Brooks
NO
QB12
74th
Aaron Brooks is an enigma. His talent is irrefutable, yet his teams have been perennial underachievers. Supporters contend he is merely one small part of a larger problem within the Saints, detractors point to the fact that Brooks was the player the Saints chose to send to leadership training school, and who is supposed to command the huddle. In any event, as much as I would like to be wrong, I think we see Aaron Brooks further condemn himself in New Orleans over the final three weeks, starting on the road against a tough Bucs defense.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Trent Green
KC
QB4
40th
Trent Green has played pretty well recently but often struggles against the Broncos. In their first meeting this year, Green was held to 176 yards passing and no touchdowns. On the year, the Broncos have allowed fewer than 6 yards per pass attempt, and have given up only 12 passing touchdowns. The Broncos will hold Tony Gonzalez in check and keep Green to a subpar performance.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Brett Favre
GB
QB6
51st
Favre is always capable of a big game, but he's been slumping of late. He failed to reach 200 yards in his last two games, while throwing just one TD and two interceptions. The Jaguars are fighting for their playoff lives, and have a lot more to lose here than the Packers. Additionally, Green Bay may be looking ahead as they have an early game next week against the Vikings, which should decide the NFC North.
Marc Levin Selects....
Michael Vick
Atl
QB5
42nd
The Falcons clinched their division last week, and Michael Vick played a nice mistake free game, though he did not have overwhelming FF numbers. This week, the team is involved in a prime time showdown with divisional rival, and resurgent playoff contender, the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have been very good against the pass all year long, including in a game against the Falcons earlier in the year. If the Panthers want to keep their playoff hopes alive, containing Vick and winning this game is a must. I think if the Panthers control Vick's scrambling as they did in the first meeting, Vick will have a relatively poor fantasy outing. Of course, that's always the big "if" with Vick's fantasy numbers.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Maurice Hicks
SF
RB28
77th
Maurice Hicks may have put the nail in Kevan Barlow's coffin last week, going over 100 yards with ease and showing the power and vision that many expected of Barlow after signing a 4-year, $20 million contract. Hicks faces tough Redskins defense, but isn't a horrible start if you're desperate for a RB3 or Utility option.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Emmitt Smith
Ari
RB26
46th
Emmitt Smith will prove this week that he still has a game or two left in him. The Rams are giving up 137 rushing yards per game and 4.73 yards per carry this year, among the league's worst in both categories. It is too much to expect Emmitt to rush for over 100 yards this week, but he should be good for one TD, and possibly two.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Duce Staley
Pit
RB30
82nd
Staley gets healthier every week, and he should be utilized early and often against the Giants. Staley when healthy was good for 100 rushing yards per week, and I think he hits that plateau against on Saturday.
Marc Levin Selects....
Steven Jackson
StL
RB27
55th
Slim pickins' this week at the RB24 and lower level - there are a ton of backs who are, simply put, question marks to play this week. However, as of this writing, things were looking very good for Steven Jackson to be back in the lineup for the Rams. And since it seems clear that HC Martz would love to rest Marshal's knees for one more week, my instincts tell me Jackson will start and will be a good play this week against a middle of the road Cardinals rush defense. Of course, you will probably know later in the week if it is Jackson or Faulk going this weekend, so swap in Marshal here if Jackson is authoritatively ruled out of this Sunday's game.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Rudi Johnson
Cin
RB23
39th
Rudi Johnson faces a Bills defense that is allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing runners, and also will be without Carson Palmer in the lineup. My guess is the Bills play the run tough and force a rusty Jon Kitna to beat them; an unlikely outcome to be sure.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Tiki Barber
NYG
RB16
24th
Barber has seen his production drop sharply over the past two weeks as the Giants' offense has struggled badly. This week he faces the NFL's best run defense. The Steelers are allowing fewer than 80 rushing yards per game (2nd in the league), only 3.52 yards per carry (4th in the league), and have given up only 4 rushing TDs on the season (tied for 1st).
Chase Stuart Selects....
Tiki Barber
NYG
RB16
24th
Barber has seen his production drop significantly since Eli Manning took over. Playing against the best run D in football this weekend, don't expect much out of Barber against the Steelers. This game means a lot more to Pittsburgh than the Giants, who seem to have already cashed in their season.
Marc Levin Selects....
Tiki Barber
NYG
RB16
24th
I am very happy to have been dead wrong on Deuce in this spot last week. Unfortunately, I am not taking as big a risk on this week's pick. The Giants are playing against the best rush defense in the league in Pittsburgh, and the team won't have to worry about getting beat in the air if they concentrate on Tiki because Eli Manning has simply not given the run game any support. It was nice for Tiki owners while it lasted, but this is going to be a rough FF playoff game for any of you who own him.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Lee Evans
Buf
WR31
85th
Evans has come alive of late, and may be ready to be a legitimate WR2 in Buffalo sooner rather than later. Meanwhile the Bills continue their improbable push for the playoffs against the Bengals, who are allowing plenty of yards and scores through the air.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Roy Williams
Det
WR33
92nd
Roy Williams hasn't scored a touchdown in his last six games; but that particular streak should end this week when he faces the Vikings. Minnesota has allowed 23 passing touchdowns this season, and is well below average in every major defensive category.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Keenan McCardell
SD
WR37
104th
McCardell goes against the Cleveland Browns. I'm not sure if you're aware, but the Cleveland Browns stopped playing nearly a month ago. They've given up 137 points the past three weeks, and it took them nearly 60 minutes to gain five total yards of offense last week. This team has nothing left, and expect the Chargers offense to torch them for at least thirty points.
Marc Levin Selects....
Joey Galloway
TB
WR46
128th
Boy was I on the money for WRs last week - Drew Bennett wasn't just above the baseline - he was the #1 receiver for the week with a HUGE MNF game. This week, I like Joey Galloway to come up big against New Orleans. Galloway had a very nice 5 catch, 78 yard, 2 TD outing last week. He also seems to be seeing the ball quite a bit in an offense that is finally "Gruden-style" throwing the ball quite a bit. Against New Orleans, you can probably count on the ball being thrown quite a bit - heck, Brian Griese might have made an excellent choice for an above the baseline QB pick. Simply put - play your Bucs against those Saints.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Jerry Porter
Oak
WR26
69th
Jerry Porter simply isn't talented enough to justify a spot in the starting lineup of a fantasy playoff contender. Remove the fluky game against Denver in the snow, remove Ron Curry from the Raiders lineup and you're left with a WR2/WR3 forced into playing WR1.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Cin
WR22
61st
TJ Houshmandzadeh has been extremely hot recently: he has over 300 yards receiving in his last two games. He will come back to earth this week against a Buffalo Bills defense that is allowing a league-low completion percentage of 54.8%, and a league-low 5.59 yards per pass attempt.
Chase Stuart Selects....
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Cin
WR22
61st
No doubt about it, Houshmanzadeh has been on fire lately. Just as hot though, is that Buffalo defense. This game features two AFC teams that would dominate in the NFC, but likely will be sitting come early January. Still, the Bills defense probably wins this battle, and it's Chad Johnson's turn for a big week.
Marc Levin Selects....
Eric Moulds
Buf
WR21
59th
My big risk call of Torry Holt to finish below the baseline last week paid off big time - he had only 3 catches for 28 yards. I should get double points for that one! I will play it a little safer this week as Cincinnati sports a surprisingly tough defense against opposing WRs and Eric Moulds has been slumping. Both of these teams need the win to stay alive in the playoffs, so I expect a close to the vest rushing contest between two hot young RBs in McGahee and Johnson rather than an air duel between Palmer and Bledsoe, who will both be asked to simply not lose the game rather than try to win it.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Jeb Putzier
Den
TE15
140th
Virtually anyone playing against the Chiefs defense is a worthy start. Putzier has been hit or miss, but I would be shocked if the Broncos don't come out guns blazing in a must win game. Look for Plummer to hit Putzier across the deep middle a few times, which will be enough to see Putzier crack the fantasy top 10 this week.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Jeb Putzier
Den
TE15
140th
Start everybody associated with the Broncos' passing game this week. That includes tight end Jeb Putzier. The Chiefs are dead last in passing yards surrendered, yards per pass surrendered, and are third-to-last in passing touchdowns surrendered.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Jeb Putzier
Den
TE15
140th
As tight ends go, Putzier has developed into a big play threat. He's averaging 16.0 yards per catch, and goes up against one of the worst defenses in recent history. Denver-Kansas City has all the makings of a shoot-out, and Putzier could get a few long grabs.
Marc Levin Selects....
Erron Kinney
Ten
TE19
166th
Expect more double coverage on Drew Bennett, like it will matter, but that may open up more Kinney underneath if Derrick Mason's ankle continues to bother him . Kinney has been worked into the passing game plan quite a bit recently as he is third on the team in targets after (obviously) Bennett and Mason. Against Oakland's soft pass defense, and considering Oakland is the fourth worst team in terms of fantasy points given up to opposing TEs, I look for Kinney to have enough targets to rise above the baseline.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Randy McMichael
Mia
TE7
71st
The Dolphins offense is simply too erratic under normal circumstances to feel confident about McMichael's prospects. Factor in a date with the Patriots and this is as good a week as any to sit him.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Dallas Clark
Ind
TE10
98th
I don't think any defense in the NFL can shut down Peyton Manning and the Colts right now. But the Ravens will come as close as anybody can. Manning will throw two or three touchdowns to his receivers this week, but there won't be enough for Dallas Clark to get in on the fun.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Randy McMichael
Mia
TE7
71st
McMichael has cooled down after a strong start, which has become a familiar refrain for him. Miami has been playing well of late (for them), but New England's D is much too tough for this Dolphins offense.
Marc Levin Selects....
Jeremy Shockey
NYG
TE6
68th
Last time I put Shockey in this category, he blew up. I also have simply been atrocious at picking the right TE in this category. Due to selfish reasons that he is my TE in a couple of games, I am hoping my placing him here means another good to great outing. Seriously, I have completely logical reasons for his placement here that include: Eli Manning has looked pitiful, the Steelers' LBs are the best cover LBs in the league, and the Steelers are third best in the league against opposing TEs as they give up only 3.8 standard FF points per game. So, let's hope Shockey defies the logic pitted against him, but I fear a below the baseline finish for him this weekend.
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