Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Kerry Collins |
Oak
|
QB17
|
90th
|
Kerry Collins faces a Colts defense that is giving
the 2nd most fantasy points to passers in the league season-to-date.
Combine that with a questionable running back situation (Wheatley
is doubtful, Fargas is questionable) and all the ingredients are
there for Collins to rack up some impressive yardage this week. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
David Carr |
Hou
|
QB16
|
87th
|
Carr is on his way to becoming a very good NFL
quarterback. He has excellent arm strength and accuracy, and is
starting to make good decisions as well. The Vikings' pass defense,
meanwhile, is suspect. Bears QB Rex Grossman threw the ball at
will on the Vikings in the second half of the game two weeks ago.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Kerry Collins |
Oak
|
QB17
|
90th
|
This might sound crazy, but I think Collins is
going to have a strong game against the Colts weak secondary.
Indianapolis' pass D has allowed the most attempts, completions
and yards in the league, while ranking in the bottom five in yards
per pass allowed and touchdowns allowed. Their secondary will
have serious issues keeping up with the speedy Raiders receivers,
and Kerry Collins is just inconsistent enough to rebound off a
poor week four.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Kerry Collins |
Oak
|
QB17
|
90th
|
It is not so much that I like Oakland or Kerry
Collins as much as I noticed how putrid the Indianapolis pass
defense has been so far this year. They have given up three 300
yard passers in four games and they made a struggling Byron Leftwich
look decent last week. Collins has the weapons to spread the field,
too. Given the combination of a poor defense and a lot of passing
weapons, I believe Collins bounces back this week and has a very
nice passing day.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Marc Bulger |
StL
|
QB10
|
64th
|
Bulger faces division rival Seattle on the road in
what should be one of the toughest tests of the year for the Rams.
The Seahawks are allowing a league low 9.4 points per game to QBs
(FBG Scoring) and will pressure him into a difficult day. Consider
alternatives if you have them. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Aaron Brooks |
NO
|
QB7
|
53rd
|
Brooks faces the Buccaneers this week, who held
Plummer to a completion percentage worse than 50% last week, and
almost completely took away the Broncos' deep passing game (aside
from a few pass interference penalties). The Bucs have the speed
in their front seven to generate a strong pass rush.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Tom Brady |
NE
|
QB6
|
49th
|
The Dolphins have let up an average of 115.75
yards and 0.5 TDs per game through the air this season. With Corey
Dillon likely leading the way for the Patriots, this one could
get ugly early. The Dolphins offense is sure to turn the ball
over a couple of times to the Pats, and Brady might not need to
complete ten passes to win this game. It's hard to bench a stud
like Brady, but this would be the time to do it.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Chad Pennington |
NYJ
|
QB5
|
41st
|
I am picking Pennington to have a second bad week
in a row as he faces another tough pass defense. Though Tom Brady
made Swiss cheese of the Bills' defense, much of that was due
to Buffalo's mental errors and Brady being, well, Brady. Pennington
has had difficulty so far finding his receivers, and Curtis Martin
has allowed the team to avoid having to rely on Pennington's arm.
I believe that trend continues this week.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Michael Pittman |
TB
|
RB26
|
45th
|
The Saints have been a sieve against the run this
year, allowing an astounding 36.3 fantasy points per week for opposing
RBs. With QB Chris Simms taking the helm for the Bucs, you can count
on two things. 1) Gruden will attempt to run the ball to take pressure
off Simms and 2) When Simms does drop back, he'll be sure to use
the sure handed Pittman early and often as a safety valve. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Michael Pittman |
TB
|
RB26
|
45th
|
Pittman looked good last week in his first game
back from a 3-game suspension. Pittman didn't break any long runs,
but picked up steady yardage on the ground. Look for him to become
more involved in the passing game this week.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Emmitt Smith |
Ari
|
RB33
|
91st
|
Two weeks running, I'm going to ride Emmitt Smith
here. It's hard to ask for a better matchup than the 49ers, where
Emmitt should easily see another twenty carry game. Coming off
an impressive week four, he'll be looking to top Walter Payton
for the most 100 yard running games in NFL history. In a season
with not a whole lot else to play for, this might be Dennis Green's
best chance to let his future Hall Of Famer achieve the record.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Michael Pittman |
TB
|
RB26
|
45th
|
Was that really Emmitt Smith going for 127 yards
against the Saints? Did the Saints actually give up 211 rush yards?
Wow. Pittman is back, and he looked energetic against the Broncos
last week as he ran at a 4.8 YPC clip against a good run defense.
What will he do against this struggling run defense? I expect
the Saints to give up at least 100 combined yardage to Pittman,
and for him to find the endzone.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Curtis Martin |
NYJ
|
RB8
|
10th
|
Curtis Martin is having an amazing season, and is
playing like a true fantasy RB1 despite being drafted much lower.
However, don't be surprised when he struggles in Week 5 against
a stout Bills defense (2nd best fantasy defense vs. RBs thus far.) |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Fred Taylor |
Jac
|
RB14
|
21st
|
Taylor struggled to gain steady yardage last week,
averaging just over 3 yards a carry and failing to convert on
several short-yardage attempts. He faces a Charger defense that
has held Chris Brown and Quentin Griffin in check over the last
two games.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Kevan Barlow |
SF
|
RB19
|
28th
|
Kevan Barlow has rushed for just sixty-six yards
the past two weeks. Until he becomes more involved in the 49ers
offense, I'd be leery to start him every week. Arizona's "D"
is pretty good, and Barlow hasn't scored in three of four games.
He's certainly capable of exploding at any time, but not every
fantasy team can afford to start him based on that alone.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Corey Dillon |
NE
|
RB13
|
17th
|
The Dolphins look horrible - on offense. They
are still a good defense, but they have given up consecutive 100
yard rushing games. In this "pride" game, though, the
Dolphins defense will become stout against the run - Brady might
tear them up, but the Dolphins will shut down Dillon.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
David Patten |
NE
|
WR45
|
123rd
|
With Deion Branch doubtful again, there's no reason
to think David Patten won't be a factor as he was in Week 4, when
he caught 5 passes for 1113 yards and a touchdown. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Drew Bennett |
Ten
|
WR31
|
85th
|
Bennett is coming off a nine-catch, 109-yard week
to face the Packers on Monday night. Green Bay's pass defense
had a better-than-expected game last week, but is still suspect
overall.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Curtis Conway |
SF
|
WR53
|
148th
|
Conway could be seeing a lot of garbage time points
in 2004. With Tim Rattay back, the 49ers will challenge for 300
passing yards every week. While Conway isn't as young as Brandon
Lloyd, Rashaun Woods or Cedrick Wilson, he's got a lot more experience.
At least for the next few weeks, I think Conway's going to produce
pretty well, and should see some TDs to boot.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Peerless Price |
Atl
|
WR43
|
117th
|
Detroit has one of the worst pass defenses in
the league. While Vick has traditionally looked for Crumpler as
his primary receiver, this is the week he finally hooks up with
Peerless Price. Price strikes me as a receiver who has a few big
games a year. Call it gut, or call it the matchup, but I believe
that in front of the home crowd, Price will finally come alive.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Rod Smith |
Den
|
WR17
|
50th
|
Rod Smith may have a tough go of things this week
as the Broncos face the Panthers. Carolina's pass defense has been
virtually impregnable thus far and while Smith is still a solid
fantasy option overall, he's no longer a true WR1 that can be expected
to produce regardless of matchup. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Keyshawn Johnson |
Dal
|
WR18
|
51st
|
Keyshawn is not a true #1 WR for the Cowboys,
as Terry Glenn, Antonio Bryant, and Jason Witten all have at least
as many receptions as Johnson so far this year. Johnson faces
a surprising NY Giant secondary this week that is playing with
confidence and getting results.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Muhsin Muhammad |
Car
|
WR24
|
65th
|
Muhammad travels to Denver, where he'll be seeing
Champ Bailey on Sunday. Denver's always a difficult place for
opponents, and Champ Bailey is one of the top cover men in the
league. Muhammad will be the focus of the defense in the passing
game, and I'm more impressed with the Denver secondary than the
Carolina passing game.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Laveranues Coles |
Was
|
WR20
|
58th
|
When you are matched up against Chris McAlister
and the Ravens defense, you take a bit of a hit. Plus, Coles has
been up and down - last week was an up. In my opinion, the Ravens
can shut down any one player, and with the Washington running
game in a slump, the Ravens will likely concentrate on Coles.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Itula Mili |
Sea
|
TE23
|
205th
|
Look for Seattle's offense to regain its place among
the league's elite this week against a spotty St. Louis defense.
Mili was largely overshadowed this offseason by the younger J. Stevens
but his play in the regular season has been lackluster, which I
believe opens the door again for Mili to play an key role in and
around the goal line. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Doug Jolley |
Oak
|
TE18
|
159th
|
Doug Jolley is the only Raider TE involved in
the passing game so far, and could become a security blanket for
Kerry Collins underneath if he doesn't have time to look downfield.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Shad Meier |
Ten
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
Meier caught NINE passes last week for the Titans,
who will once again be without the services of Erron Kinney. There's
not many tight ends that see ten targets in a given week, so I'll
roll the dice that Meier falls into four or five catches this
week as well.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Jeb Putzier |
Den
|
TE13
|
129th
|
I am cheating a little bit here by calling the
#13 TE to finish above the baseline of 12, but I really believe
this is a week that Putzier could simply explode. The Panthers
have a good all-around defense, but Jake Plummer has been very
good at finding the open man when he bootlegs. With the Denver
run game struggling, I would expect a lot of movement from Jake,
which usually lends itself well to him finding the tight end peeling
off the line. Putzier has looked really good lately, too, and
I expect the Broncos to incorporate him heavily into this week's
game plan. I was tempted to take Doug Jolley again, but I fear
the Raiders' propensity to spread the ball around.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Daniel Graham |
NE
|
TE8
|
79th
|
The Patriots feature as balanced an offense as you'll
find in today's NFL, and QB Tom Brady is apt to throw to 8 or 9
different players in a game. While Graham has played well to start
the year, the Patriots face one of the toughest secondaries in the
league and are likely to win this game on the ground with relative
ease. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Randy McMichael |
Mia
|
TE4
|
63rd
|
McMichael is having a fantastic season so far
this year, leading the Dolphins in targets, receptions, receiving
yards, and receiving TDs (tied with Chambers). But this week he
faces a Patriot defense that excels at taking away the opposing
team's strength. Look for McMichael to see a lot of double coverage
as the Patriots force the Dolphins to throw outside to the WRs.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Boo Williams |
NO
|
TE11
|
120th
|
The Bucs D is still pretty impressive, and Williams
has yet to do much this season. He's been coming on strong of
late, but I don't expect much out of an average tight end going
up against the Bucs. Additionally, the Saints surely didn't resemble
a powerhouse last week.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Boo Williams |
NO
|
TE11
|
120th
|
Against Tampa Bay this week, and with Deuce still
on the sideline, the Saints will have to come out of their doldrums
through the passing game. While that would seem to be a good thing
for Boo, the Bucs defense will probably force the Saints to play
maximum protect on Brooks. That may mean more Ernie Conwell on
the field and less Boo. Also, I expect Joe Horn to have the big
receiving day for the Saints - for whatever reason, Horn always
seems to play exceptionally well against the Bucs.
|
|