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Beyond the Baseline



Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Kerry Collins
Oak
QB17
90th
Kerry Collins faces a Colts defense that is giving the 2nd most fantasy points to passers in the league season-to-date. Combine that with a questionable running back situation (Wheatley is doubtful, Fargas is questionable) and all the ingredients are there for Collins to rack up some impressive yardage this week.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
David Carr
Hou
QB16
87th
Carr is on his way to becoming a very good NFL quarterback. He has excellent arm strength and accuracy, and is starting to make good decisions as well. The Vikings' pass defense, meanwhile, is suspect. Bears QB Rex Grossman threw the ball at will on the Vikings in the second half of the game two weeks ago.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Kerry Collins
Oak
QB17
90th
This might sound crazy, but I think Collins is going to have a strong game against the Colts weak secondary. Indianapolis' pass D has allowed the most attempts, completions and yards in the league, while ranking in the bottom five in yards per pass allowed and touchdowns allowed. Their secondary will have serious issues keeping up with the speedy Raiders receivers, and Kerry Collins is just inconsistent enough to rebound off a poor week four.
Marc Levin Selects....
Kerry Collins
Oak
QB17
90th
It is not so much that I like Oakland or Kerry Collins as much as I noticed how putrid the Indianapolis pass defense has been so far this year. They have given up three 300 yard passers in four games and they made a struggling Byron Leftwich look decent last week. Collins has the weapons to spread the field, too. Given the combination of a poor defense and a lot of passing weapons, I believe Collins bounces back this week and has a very nice passing day.
Picks to finish BELOW
t
he Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Marc Bulger
StL
QB10
64th
Bulger faces division rival Seattle on the road in what should be one of the toughest tests of the year for the Rams. The Seahawks are allowing a league low 9.4 points per game to QBs (FBG Scoring) and will pressure him into a difficult day. Consider alternatives if you have them.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Aaron Brooks
NO
QB7
53rd
Brooks faces the Buccaneers this week, who held Plummer to a completion percentage worse than 50% last week, and almost completely took away the Broncos' deep passing game (aside from a few pass interference penalties). The Bucs have the speed in their front seven to generate a strong pass rush.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Tom Brady
NE
QB6
49th
The Dolphins have let up an average of 115.75 yards and 0.5 TDs per game through the air this season. With Corey Dillon likely leading the way for the Patriots, this one could get ugly early. The Dolphins offense is sure to turn the ball over a couple of times to the Pats, and Brady might not need to complete ten passes to win this game. It's hard to bench a stud like Brady, but this would be the time to do it.
Marc Levin Selects....
Chad Pennington
NYJ
QB5
41st
I am picking Pennington to have a second bad week in a row as he faces another tough pass defense. Though Tom Brady made Swiss cheese of the Bills' defense, much of that was due to Buffalo's mental errors and Brady being, well, Brady. Pennington has had difficulty so far finding his receivers, and Curtis Martin has allowed the team to avoid having to rely on Pennington's arm. I believe that trend continues this week.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Michael Pittman
TB
RB26
45th
The Saints have been a sieve against the run this year, allowing an astounding 36.3 fantasy points per week for opposing RBs. With QB Chris Simms taking the helm for the Bucs, you can count on two things. 1) Gruden will attempt to run the ball to take pressure off Simms and 2) When Simms does drop back, he'll be sure to use the sure handed Pittman early and often as a safety valve.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Michael Pittman
TB
RB26
45th
Pittman looked good last week in his first game back from a 3-game suspension. Pittman didn't break any long runs, but picked up steady yardage on the ground. Look for him to become more involved in the passing game this week.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Emmitt Smith
Ari
RB33
91st
Two weeks running, I'm going to ride Emmitt Smith here. It's hard to ask for a better matchup than the 49ers, where Emmitt should easily see another twenty carry game. Coming off an impressive week four, he'll be looking to top Walter Payton for the most 100 yard running games in NFL history. In a season with not a whole lot else to play for, this might be Dennis Green's best chance to let his future Hall Of Famer achieve the record.
Marc Levin Selects....
Michael Pittman
TB
RB26
45th
Was that really Emmitt Smith going for 127 yards against the Saints? Did the Saints actually give up 211 rush yards? Wow. Pittman is back, and he looked energetic against the Broncos last week as he ran at a 4.8 YPC clip against a good run defense. What will he do against this struggling run defense? I expect the Saints to give up at least 100 combined yardage to Pittman, and for him to find the endzone.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Curtis Martin
NYJ
RB8
10th
Curtis Martin is having an amazing season, and is playing like a true fantasy RB1 despite being drafted much lower. However, don't be surprised when he struggles in Week 5 against a stout Bills defense (2nd best fantasy defense vs. RBs thus far.)
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Fred Taylor
Jac
RB14
21st
Taylor struggled to gain steady yardage last week, averaging just over 3 yards a carry and failing to convert on several short-yardage attempts. He faces a Charger defense that has held Chris Brown and Quentin Griffin in check over the last two games.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Kevan Barlow
SF
RB19
28th
Kevan Barlow has rushed for just sixty-six yards the past two weeks. Until he becomes more involved in the 49ers offense, I'd be leery to start him every week. Arizona's "D" is pretty good, and Barlow hasn't scored in three of four games. He's certainly capable of exploding at any time, but not every fantasy team can afford to start him based on that alone.
Marc Levin Selects....
Corey Dillon
NE
RB13
17th
The Dolphins look horrible - on offense. They are still a good defense, but they have given up consecutive 100 yard rushing games. In this "pride" game, though, the Dolphins defense will become stout against the run - Brady might tear them up, but the Dolphins will shut down Dillon.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
David Patten
NE
WR45
123rd
With Deion Branch doubtful again, there's no reason to think David Patten won't be a factor as he was in Week 4, when he caught 5 passes for 1113 yards and a touchdown.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Drew Bennett
Ten
WR31
85th
Bennett is coming off a nine-catch, 109-yard week to face the Packers on Monday night. Green Bay's pass defense had a better-than-expected game last week, but is still suspect overall.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Curtis Conway
SF
WR53
148th
Conway could be seeing a lot of garbage time points in 2004. With Tim Rattay back, the 49ers will challenge for 300 passing yards every week. While Conway isn't as young as Brandon Lloyd, Rashaun Woods or Cedrick Wilson, he's got a lot more experience. At least for the next few weeks, I think Conway's going to produce pretty well, and should see some TDs to boot.
Marc Levin Selects....
Peerless Price
Atl
WR43
117th
Detroit has one of the worst pass defenses in the league. While Vick has traditionally looked for Crumpler as his primary receiver, this is the week he finally hooks up with Peerless Price. Price strikes me as a receiver who has a few big games a year. Call it gut, or call it the matchup, but I believe that in front of the home crowd, Price will finally come alive.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Rod Smith
Den
WR17
50th
Rod Smith may have a tough go of things this week as the Broncos face the Panthers. Carolina's pass defense has been virtually impregnable thus far and while Smith is still a solid fantasy option overall, he's no longer a true WR1 that can be expected to produce regardless of matchup.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Keyshawn Johnson
Dal
WR18
51st
Keyshawn is not a true #1 WR for the Cowboys, as Terry Glenn, Antonio Bryant, and Jason Witten all have at least as many receptions as Johnson so far this year. Johnson faces a surprising NY Giant secondary this week that is playing with confidence and getting results.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Muhsin Muhammad
Car
WR24
65th
Muhammad travels to Denver, where he'll be seeing Champ Bailey on Sunday. Denver's always a difficult place for opponents, and Champ Bailey is one of the top cover men in the league. Muhammad will be the focus of the defense in the passing game, and I'm more impressed with the Denver secondary than the Carolina passing game.
Marc Levin Selects....
Laveranues Coles
Was
WR20
58th
When you are matched up against Chris McAlister and the Ravens defense, you take a bit of a hit. Plus, Coles has been up and down - last week was an up. In my opinion, the Ravens can shut down any one player, and with the Washington running game in a slump, the Ravens will likely concentrate on Coles.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Itula Mili
Sea
TE23
205th
Look for Seattle's offense to regain its place among the league's elite this week against a spotty St. Louis defense. Mili was largely overshadowed this offseason by the younger J. Stevens but his play in the regular season has been lackluster, which I believe opens the door again for Mili to play an key role in and around the goal line.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Doug Jolley
Oak
TE18
159th
Doug Jolley is the only Raider TE involved in the passing game so far, and could become a security blanket for Kerry Collins underneath if he doesn't have time to look downfield.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Shad Meier
Ten
n/a
n/a
Meier caught NINE passes last week for the Titans, who will once again be without the services of Erron Kinney. There's not many tight ends that see ten targets in a given week, so I'll roll the dice that Meier falls into four or five catches this week as well.
Marc Levin Selects....
Jeb Putzier
Den
TE13
129th
I am cheating a little bit here by calling the #13 TE to finish above the baseline of 12, but I really believe this is a week that Putzier could simply explode. The Panthers have a good all-around defense, but Jake Plummer has been very good at finding the open man when he bootlegs. With the Denver run game struggling, I would expect a lot of movement from Jake, which usually lends itself well to him finding the tight end peeling off the line. Putzier has looked really good lately, too, and I expect the Broncos to incorporate him heavily into this week's game plan. I was tempted to take Doug Jolley again, but I fear the Raiders' propensity to spread the ball around.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Daniel Graham
NE
TE8
79th
The Patriots feature as balanced an offense as you'll find in today's NFL, and QB Tom Brady is apt to throw to 8 or 9 different players in a game. While Graham has played well to start the year, the Patriots face one of the toughest secondaries in the league and are likely to win this game on the ground with relative ease.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Randy McMichael
Mia
TE4
63rd
McMichael is having a fantastic season so far this year, leading the Dolphins in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs (tied with Chambers). But this week he faces a Patriot defense that excels at taking away the opposing team's strength. Look for McMichael to see a lot of double coverage as the Patriots force the Dolphins to throw outside to the WRs.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Boo Williams
NO
TE11
120th
The Bucs D is still pretty impressive, and Williams has yet to do much this season. He's been coming on strong of late, but I don't expect much out of an average tight end going up against the Bucs. Additionally, the Saints surely didn't resemble a powerhouse last week.
Marc Levin Selects....
Boo Williams
NO
TE11
120th
Against Tampa Bay this week, and with Deuce still on the sideline, the Saints will have to come out of their doldrums through the passing game. While that would seem to be a good thing for Boo, the Bucs defense will probably force the Saints to play maximum protect on Brooks. That may mean more Ernie Conwell on the field and less Boo. Also, I expect Joe Horn to have the big receiving day for the Saints - for whatever reason, Horn always seems to play exceptionally well against the Bucs.
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