Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Joey Harrington |
Det
|
QB16
|
87th
|
Joey Harrington gets to face the Green Bay Packers
secondary at home this week and, provided Roy Williams is OK to
play, is a fantastic start this week if you are using a committee
approach and/or have bye week issues to deal with. The Packers have
allowed a 2nd worst 12 TD passes and are using backup rookies due
to injuries and Mike McKenzie's holdout and subsequent trade. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Jake Plummer |
Den
|
QB17
|
90th
|
Plummer is the kind of quarterback who can take
what the defense gives him, and the Raiders' pass defense been
giving up plenty this year. The Raiders' defense is 31st in the
league in yards per pass attempt, and they've been inconsistent
in generating pressure on opposing QBs.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Michael Vick |
SD
|
QB15
|
83rd
|
Vick is taking the most criticism he's faced in
his four year career. Superstars rebound very well from these
situations, especially at home. The Chargers defense isn't anything
special, and Vick can explode at a moment's notice. The Falcons
got cocky after a 4-0 start, but expect a more prepared Atlanta
team this weekend.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Byron Leftwich |
Jac
|
QB18
|
94th
|
Kansas City's pass defense is poor - really poor.
The only reason it is statistically in the middle against the
pass is that their run defense is even worse, causing teams not
to have to rely on the pass as much. However, after the showing
the Chiefs made in holding Jamal Lewis in check in Baltimore,
and with Fred Taylor struggling lately, Leftwich may have to throw
a bit to keep the Jaguars in this game.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Chad Pennington |
NYJ
|
QB5
|
41st
|
Chad Pennington is proving himself to be an all-world
"real life" QB, but as a fantasy passer he's merely good,
not great. Through four games, the Jets are only 26th in passing
attempts and 18th in TDs; and with Santana Moss questionable this
week I don't like Pennington's outlook. And remember, with the 49ers
defense being decimated by injury, the Jets will (and should) be
able to control this game on the ground. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Marc Bulger |
StL
|
QB8
|
57th
|
Bulger and the Rams are coming off an emotional
overtime win against the Seahawks, but they will be hard pressed
to match their aerial success this week against the Bucs. The
Buccaneers are holding opposing QBs to under a 50% completion
percentage this year, and are second in the league in giving up
only 5.3 yards per attempt. More importantly, the Bucs' offense
is unlikely to jump out to a big lead, making it unlikely that
the Rams will have to play catch-up.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Marc Bulger |
StL
|
QB8
|
57th
|
The Bucs are allowing just 5.33 yards per attempt
this year, second best in the league. Last time the Rams were
on national television, Martz ran the ball early and often. Bulger's
never played the Bucs before, and he's got the toughest matchup
of any of the stud QBs this week.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Matt Hasselbeck |
Sea
|
QB4
|
38th
|
The Seahawks are heading into New England. Even
with the firepower available, not many QBs have done well in Foxboro.
On the year, the Patriots are giving up only 15.3 FBG fantasy
points to QBs. I expect the Pats to have game planned for Seattle
well and for their front four to effectively pressure Hasselbeck
into a lot of poor throws. That said, he could have a big fourth
quarter comeback effort, which would ruin my analysis, but New
England is so strong, and the other top-12 QBs have such good
matchups, that I am projecting a tough day for the Seattle passer.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Mewelde Moore |
Min
|
RB53
|
224th
|
Mewelde Moore looked nothing like a rookie 4th stringer
last week, accumulating 180 yards from scrimmage. This week he again
looks to get the start with Smith (suspension) and Bennett and Williams
(injury) likely out again. Moore gets to tee off against the league's
worst rushing defense (9 rushing TDs allowed YTD), and Culpepper
will surely look to pass off to him a handful of times, as well. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Michael Pittman |
TB
|
RB25
|
43rd
|
I picked Pittman in this spot last week as well.
Eventually he'll do me right. The Bucs face the Rams on Monday
Night Football, and the Rams have had trouble stopping opposing
running backs so far this year, ranking 31st against the run.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Reuben Droughns |
Den
|
RB33
|
91st
|
Anytime you run for 193 yards you're going to
open some eyes. Droughns should get the lion's share of carries
this week, as he easily appears to be the most impressive Denver
RB. While his long term success is up in the air, he should play
well against Oakland. Teams have run an average of thirty-two
times per game against the Raiders this year.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Mewelde Moore |
Min
|
RB53
|
224th
|
Well, here's a tough one. Moore is thrown into
the feature role in Minnesota with the injuries to Bennett and
Williams and the suspension of Onterrio Smith. He faces the absolute
worst fantasy run defense in the league in New Orleans, who are
sacrificing over 30 FBG fantasy points per game to running backs.
Moore looked good against Houston, racking up 182 total yards,
even though he failed to find the endzone. This week, under the
Sunday night lights, with the Culpepper-Moss show taking the pressure
off, Moore may top those numbers.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Thomas Jones |
Chi
|
RB10
|
13th
|
Thomas Jones faces an uphill battle coming off his
bye week. Although the Redskins haven't played way as a team, the
run defense has been phenomenal, allowing a league best 2.8 yards
per carry and only 2 rushing TDs. With QB Jon Quinn and company
posing no threat in the passing game, the Redskins are sure to contain
Jones and keep this game close. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Warrick Dunn |
Atl
|
RB20
|
30th
|
Warrick Dunn is off to a great start so far this
year, but he runs up against a Charger defense that has shut down
Fred Taylor, Chris Brown, and Quentin Griffin in its last three
games (and Curtis Martin in the second half before that). The
Chargers will force Michael Vick to beat them through the air.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Corey Dillon |
NE
|
RB12
|
15th
|
Dillon will have a tough time running against
the Seahawks this week, the stingiest team against the run in
the league. This game could see both QBs airing it out a lot,
or a very low scoring game. Either way, don't expect Seattle to
give up a 100 yard game to Dillon.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Thomas Jones |
Chi
|
RB10
|
13th
|
The Redskins have been losing games, but it has
not been because of their defense. The Redskins have been stifling
opposing run games. Without any fear of Chicago's passing game,
Jones will be struggling against 8 in the box all day long. Jones
is the Bears' entire offense, but he is also the only player the
Redskins need to concentrate on stopping.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
David Patten |
NE
|
WR47
|
130th
|
Deion Branch remains doubtful, and that means David
Patten again is assured of a pivotal role in the Patriots diverse
passing attack. While the Seahawks aren't horrendous against the
pass YTD, they were exposed last week by the Rams. Look for Patten
to remain a solid start as a top 30 fantasy receiver until Branch
returns. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Donte' Stallworth |
NO
|
WR33
|
92nd
|
Stallworth is coming off a one-reception performance
against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but should do a lot better this
week against the Vikings. The Vikings' offense has been on fire,
and they will probably force the Saints to play from behind in
the second half. The speedy Stallworth should work his way open
against the league's 27th-ranked pass defense.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Reche Caldwell |
SD
|
WR41
|
113th
|
Caldwell is the big play threat for the Chargers,
and he is primed for a good game on the fast turf in Atlanta.
That game could easily turn into a shoot-out, and Caldwell should
bounce back from a rough week. Teams throw a lot on Atlanta, and
Caldwell should be good for five to six catches and maybe a score.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Donald Driver |
GB
|
WR43
|
117th
|
It may not seem clear to everyone else, but it
seems clear to me that Driver is Favre's favorite target again.
He had 10 catches for 150 yards against the Titans. He has 47
targets on the year - the same number of targets as Javon Walker.
He and Favre have had a good groove, and it is Driver that Favre
looks to in clutch situations. With Detroit lingering near the
bottom of the fantasy defenses against receivers, Driver should
be able to haul in enough passes to make him a good start this
week.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Eric Moulds |
Buf
|
WR9
|
32nd
|
Eric Moulds remains one of the league's more dangerous
veteran receivers. However, he faces a Dolphins defense that has
allowed a league low 602 receiving yards YTD and a league-best 9.6
yard per reception. With Buffalo's offense struggling (5th worst
passing offense in the NFL) already, this could be one ugly, low
scoring affair. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Eric Moulds |
Buf
|
WR9
|
32nd
|
Moulds has been one of the Bills' few offensive
bright spots this year, but he'll face a Miami Dolphin defense
this week that has the corners to matchup with him physically,
and the ability to pressure on QB Drew Bledsoe, who doesn't typically
handle pressure very well. Expect the Bills' passing game to struggle
this week.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Santana Moss |
NYJ
|
WR18
|
53rd
|
Moss has been a big disappointment all year, and
the team might not need to pass much against the 49ers. Expect
a healthy dose of Curtis Martin and maybe Lamont Jordan, against
a porous run defense. Moss left the Bills game early as well,
so the Jets may be extra careful with him as they play the Patriots
next week.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Keary Colbert |
Car
|
WR22
|
62nd
|
It is flip a coin week between Muhammad and Colbert
- one of the two will be shut down by Philadelphia. While Philly's
been middling against the pass, I expect the week off and the
revenge home game against the team that denied them the Super
Bowl last year to combine to create a hungry Philly pass defense
that will shut down the Carolina deep passing game.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Chris Cooley |
Was
|
TE17
|
150th
|
The Redskins have struggled on offense but the Bears
may prove an easier foe than many realize. The Bears have allowed
over 1,000 yards passing (due largely to major injuries in the secondary)
and Cooley should continue to get work as an H-back/receiver for
Joe Gibbs. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Stephen Alexander |
Det
|
TE21
|
188th
|
With Roy Williams sidelined, the Lions will take
advantage of Stephen Alexander's pass-catching skills. They face
a Green Bay Packer defense this week that has struggled to slow
down opposing offenses; so Alexander may get several red zone
opportunities as well.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Desmond Clark |
Chi
|
TE18
|
159th
|
Finally healthy, Clark may see a big boost in
his numbers following the Bears bye week. With Jonathon Quinn
at QB, Chicago will have to scale down their offense and focus
on the intermediate routes. Clark stands a good chance of being
the big beneficiary of this, and he's got very good hands and
moves for a TE.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Billy Miller |
Hou
|
TE25
|
218th
|
I don't know why, but the Titans rank dead last
in fantasy points given up to the tight end. While the Texans
have been the Carr to Andre show, they may find the tight end
open a little bit more often and may decide to use Miller, who
has a history of surprisingly good pass receiving games.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Randy McMichael |
Mia
|
TE6
|
68th
|
So little separates starting caliber fantasy TEs (beyond
the elite few) and waiver wire fodder. While McMichael's athleticism
and route running put him a notch above most tight ends, for fantasy
purposes he's someone you may want to steer clear of this week.
He faces a solid Bills' defense that has the linebacker play capable
of shutting him down. Furthermore, the Dolphins may be forced to
go with Sage Rosenfels at QB; someone who has been unable to beat
out Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley for playing time; hardly an endorsement
of his ability as a passer. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Jason Witten |
Dal
|
TE9
|
96th
|
Witten is a talented pass-catcher who is off to
a decent start this season, but he faces a Steeler defense that
has been particularly stingy against opposing tight ends.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Jason Witten |
Dal
|
TE9
|
96th
|
Witten's played pretty well, but the Steelers
LBs are among the best in the league. Testaverde has been awful
historically versus the Steelers 3-4 defense, so I wouldn't surprised
to see him held in check. The Cowboys best chances to win this
week are the running game and their speedy receivers.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Jason Witten |
Dal
|
TE9
|
96th
|
Though Jason Witten has been an excellent safety
net for Vinny Testaverde and the Cowboys, he may have a more difficult
time finding himself free against the Pittsburgh linebackers,
who are good in coverage. The Steelers give up fewer than 4 FF
points a game to opposing TEs. Unless he finds the end zone, he
will probably be held under 30 yards receiving, which would place
him below the baseline.
|
|