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Beyond the Baseline



Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Joey Harrington
Det
QB16
87th
Joey Harrington gets to face the Green Bay Packers secondary at home this week and, provided Roy Williams is OK to play, is a fantastic start this week if you are using a committee approach and/or have bye week issues to deal with. The Packers have allowed a 2nd worst 12 TD passes and are using backup rookies due to injuries and Mike McKenzie's holdout and subsequent trade.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Jake Plummer
Den
QB17
90th
Plummer is the kind of quarterback who can take what the defense gives him, and the Raiders' pass defense been giving up plenty this year. The Raiders' defense is 31st in the league in yards per pass attempt, and they've been inconsistent in generating pressure on opposing QBs.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Michael Vick
SD
QB15
83rd
Vick is taking the most criticism he's faced in his four year career. Superstars rebound very well from these situations, especially at home. The Chargers defense isn't anything special, and Vick can explode at a moment's notice. The Falcons got cocky after a 4-0 start, but expect a more prepared Atlanta team this weekend.
Marc Levin Selects....
Byron Leftwich
Jac
QB18
94th
Kansas City's pass defense is poor - really poor. The only reason it is statistically in the middle against the pass is that their run defense is even worse, causing teams not to have to rely on the pass as much. However, after the showing the Chiefs made in holding Jamal Lewis in check in Baltimore, and with Fred Taylor struggling lately, Leftwich may have to throw a bit to keep the Jaguars in this game.
Picks to finish BELOW
t
he Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Chad Pennington
NYJ
QB5
41st
Chad Pennington is proving himself to be an all-world "real life" QB, but as a fantasy passer he's merely good, not great. Through four games, the Jets are only 26th in passing attempts and 18th in TDs; and with Santana Moss questionable this week I don't like Pennington's outlook. And remember, with the 49ers defense being decimated by injury, the Jets will (and should) be able to control this game on the ground.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Marc Bulger
StL
QB8
57th
Bulger and the Rams are coming off an emotional overtime win against the Seahawks, but they will be hard pressed to match their aerial success this week against the Bucs. The Buccaneers are holding opposing QBs to under a 50% completion percentage this year, and are second in the league in giving up only 5.3 yards per attempt. More importantly, the Bucs' offense is unlikely to jump out to a big lead, making it unlikely that the Rams will have to play catch-up.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Marc Bulger
StL
QB8
57th
The Bucs are allowing just 5.33 yards per attempt this year, second best in the league. Last time the Rams were on national television, Martz ran the ball early and often. Bulger's never played the Bucs before, and he's got the toughest matchup of any of the stud QBs this week.
Marc Levin Selects....
Matt Hasselbeck
Sea
QB4
38th
The Seahawks are heading into New England. Even with the firepower available, not many QBs have done well in Foxboro. On the year, the Patriots are giving up only 15.3 FBG fantasy points to QBs. I expect the Pats to have game planned for Seattle well and for their front four to effectively pressure Hasselbeck into a lot of poor throws. That said, he could have a big fourth quarter comeback effort, which would ruin my analysis, but New England is so strong, and the other top-12 QBs have such good matchups, that I am projecting a tough day for the Seattle passer.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Mewelde Moore
Min
RB53
224th
Mewelde Moore looked nothing like a rookie 4th stringer last week, accumulating 180 yards from scrimmage. This week he again looks to get the start with Smith (suspension) and Bennett and Williams (injury) likely out again. Moore gets to tee off against the league's worst rushing defense (9 rushing TDs allowed YTD), and Culpepper will surely look to pass off to him a handful of times, as well.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Michael Pittman
TB
RB25
43rd
I picked Pittman in this spot last week as well. Eventually he'll do me right. The Bucs face the Rams on Monday Night Football, and the Rams have had trouble stopping opposing running backs so far this year, ranking 31st against the run.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Reuben Droughns
Den
RB33
91st
Anytime you run for 193 yards you're going to open some eyes. Droughns should get the lion's share of carries this week, as he easily appears to be the most impressive Denver RB. While his long term success is up in the air, he should play well against Oakland. Teams have run an average of thirty-two times per game against the Raiders this year.
Marc Levin Selects....
Mewelde Moore
Min
RB53
224th
Well, here's a tough one. Moore is thrown into the feature role in Minnesota with the injuries to Bennett and Williams and the suspension of Onterrio Smith. He faces the absolute worst fantasy run defense in the league in New Orleans, who are sacrificing over 30 FBG fantasy points per game to running backs. Moore looked good against Houston, racking up 182 total yards, even though he failed to find the endzone. This week, under the Sunday night lights, with the Culpepper-Moss show taking the pressure off, Moore may top those numbers.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Thomas Jones
Chi
RB10
13th
Thomas Jones faces an uphill battle coming off his bye week. Although the Redskins haven't played way as a team, the run defense has been phenomenal, allowing a league best 2.8 yards per carry and only 2 rushing TDs. With QB Jon Quinn and company posing no threat in the passing game, the Redskins are sure to contain Jones and keep this game close.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Warrick Dunn
Atl
RB20
30th
Warrick Dunn is off to a great start so far this year, but he runs up against a Charger defense that has shut down Fred Taylor, Chris Brown, and Quentin Griffin in its last three games (and Curtis Martin in the second half before that). The Chargers will force Michael Vick to beat them through the air.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Corey Dillon
NE
RB12
15th
Dillon will have a tough time running against the Seahawks this week, the stingiest team against the run in the league. This game could see both QBs airing it out a lot, or a very low scoring game. Either way, don't expect Seattle to give up a 100 yard game to Dillon.
Marc Levin Selects....
Thomas Jones
Chi
RB10
13th
The Redskins have been losing games, but it has not been because of their defense. The Redskins have been stifling opposing run games. Without any fear of Chicago's passing game, Jones will be struggling against 8 in the box all day long. Jones is the Bears' entire offense, but he is also the only player the Redskins need to concentrate on stopping.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
David Patten
NE
WR47
130th
Deion Branch remains doubtful, and that means David Patten again is assured of a pivotal role in the Patriots diverse passing attack. While the Seahawks aren't horrendous against the pass YTD, they were exposed last week by the Rams. Look for Patten to remain a solid start as a top 30 fantasy receiver until Branch returns.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Donte' Stallworth
NO
WR33
92nd
Stallworth is coming off a one-reception performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but should do a lot better this week against the Vikings. The Vikings' offense has been on fire, and they will probably force the Saints to play from behind in the second half. The speedy Stallworth should work his way open against the league's 27th-ranked pass defense.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Reche Caldwell
SD
WR41
113th
Caldwell is the big play threat for the Chargers, and he is primed for a good game on the fast turf in Atlanta. That game could easily turn into a shoot-out, and Caldwell should bounce back from a rough week. Teams throw a lot on Atlanta, and Caldwell should be good for five to six catches and maybe a score.
Marc Levin Selects....
Donald Driver
GB
WR43
117th
It may not seem clear to everyone else, but it seems clear to me that Driver is Favre's favorite target again. He had 10 catches for 150 yards against the Titans. He has 47 targets on the year - the same number of targets as Javon Walker. He and Favre have had a good groove, and it is Driver that Favre looks to in clutch situations. With Detroit lingering near the bottom of the fantasy defenses against receivers, Driver should be able to haul in enough passes to make him a good start this week.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Eric Moulds
Buf
WR9
32nd
Eric Moulds remains one of the league's more dangerous veteran receivers. However, he faces a Dolphins defense that has allowed a league low 602 receiving yards YTD and a league-best 9.6 yard per reception. With Buffalo's offense struggling (5th worst passing offense in the NFL) already, this could be one ugly, low scoring affair.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Eric Moulds
Buf
WR9
32nd
Moulds has been one of the Bills' few offensive bright spots this year, but he'll face a Miami Dolphin defense this week that has the corners to matchup with him physically, and the ability to pressure on QB Drew Bledsoe, who doesn't typically handle pressure very well. Expect the Bills' passing game to struggle this week.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Santana Moss
NYJ
WR18
53rd
Moss has been a big disappointment all year, and the team might not need to pass much against the 49ers. Expect a healthy dose of Curtis Martin and maybe Lamont Jordan, against a porous run defense. Moss left the Bills game early as well, so the Jets may be extra careful with him as they play the Patriots next week.
Marc Levin Selects....
Keary Colbert
Car
WR22
62nd
It is flip a coin week between Muhammad and Colbert - one of the two will be shut down by Philadelphia. While Philly's been middling against the pass, I expect the week off and the revenge home game against the team that denied them the Super Bowl last year to combine to create a hungry Philly pass defense that will shut down the Carolina deep passing game.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Chris Cooley
Was
TE17
150th
The Redskins have struggled on offense but the Bears may prove an easier foe than many realize. The Bears have allowed over 1,000 yards passing (due largely to major injuries in the secondary) and Cooley should continue to get work as an H-back/receiver for Joe Gibbs.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Stephen Alexander
Det
TE21
188th
With Roy Williams sidelined, the Lions will take advantage of Stephen Alexander's pass-catching skills. They face a Green Bay Packer defense this week that has struggled to slow down opposing offenses; so Alexander may get several red zone opportunities as well.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Desmond Clark
Chi
TE18
159th
Finally healthy, Clark may see a big boost in his numbers following the Bears bye week. With Jonathon Quinn at QB, Chicago will have to scale down their offense and focus on the intermediate routes. Clark stands a good chance of being the big beneficiary of this, and he's got very good hands and moves for a TE.
Marc Levin Selects....
Billy Miller
Hou
TE25
218th
I don't know why, but the Titans rank dead last in fantasy points given up to the tight end. While the Texans have been the Carr to Andre show, they may find the tight end open a little bit more often and may decide to use Miller, who has a history of surprisingly good pass receiving games.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Randy McMichael
Mia
TE6
68th
So little separates starting caliber fantasy TEs (beyond the elite few) and waiver wire fodder. While McMichael's athleticism and route running put him a notch above most tight ends, for fantasy purposes he's someone you may want to steer clear of this week. He faces a solid Bills' defense that has the linebacker play capable of shutting him down. Furthermore, the Dolphins may be forced to go with Sage Rosenfels at QB; someone who has been unable to beat out Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley for playing time; hardly an endorsement of his ability as a passer.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Jason Witten
Dal
TE9
96th
Witten is a talented pass-catcher who is off to a decent start this season, but he faces a Steeler defense that has been particularly stingy against opposing tight ends.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Jason Witten
Dal
TE9
96th
Witten's played pretty well, but the Steelers LBs are among the best in the league. Testaverde has been awful historically versus the Steelers 3-4 defense, so I wouldn't surprised to see him held in check. The Cowboys best chances to win this week are the running game and their speedy receivers.
Marc Levin Selects....
Jason Witten
Dal
TE9
96th
Though Jason Witten has been an excellent safety net for Vinny Testaverde and the Cowboys, he may have a more difficult time finding himself free against the Pittsburgh linebackers, who are good in coverage. The Steelers give up fewer than 4 FF points a game to opposing TEs. Unless he finds the end zone, he will probably be held under 30 yards receiving, which would place him below the baseline.
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