Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Drew Brees |
SD
|
QB23
|
97th
|
It wasn't long ago everyone was betting on when, not
if rookie QB Phil Rivers would become the Chargers starter. But
a fast start and heady play by Brees all but assures he'll remain
the team's starter until such time as San Diego falls out of the
race. With Keenan McCardell onboard; Brees has weapons can take
advantage of the Raiders secondary. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Drew Brees |
SD
|
QB23
|
97th
|
The Chargers offensive line is giving Drew Brees
a surprising amount of time to throw, and Brees is playing the
best football of his career. With LaDainian Tomlinson still recovering
from a sore groin, the Chargers may rely on their passing game,
including new weapon Keenan McCardell, to move the ball against
the Raiders, who are giving up 7.76 yards per pass attempt (31st
in the league). The Raiders have allowed 11 touchdown passes and
have only 4 interceptions.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Kerry Collins |
Oak
|
QB24
|
119th
|
Kerry Collins threw for 350 and two scores last
week, and he's got another lackluster opponent this week. Playing
in San Diego, Collins should be able to challenge for 300 yards
again. The Chargers have allowed more completions than any team
in the league, and are in the bottom three in passing yards allowed.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Vinny Testaverde |
Dal
|
QB25
|
126th
|
Detroit's defense is giving up a lot of fantasy
points across the board. The Cowboys are at home. Vinny has put
up numbers, even though he is on a short leash. The Cowboys need
this victory. A lot of the other big name QBs have some tough
matchups. I look for Vinny to have a good enough day to be a top-12
QB this week, especially since the Dallas run game seems to continue
to be floundering. Glenn and Morgan hurting is worrisome, but
that just means the more steady receivers - Richie Anderson, Keyshawn
Johnson and Jason Witten - may have huge days.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (QB12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Chad Pennington |
NYJ
|
QB12
|
74th
|
Just because the Dolphins are struggling mightily
this year doesn't mean the Fins don't still know how to play defense.
The Dolphins are allowing a sparse 12.7 PPG against opposing fantasy
QBs and Pennington, while playing efficiently, hasn't been putting
up monster numbers to begin with. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Chad Pennington |
NYJ
|
QB12
|
74th
|
When Pennington faced the Dolphins four weeks
ago, he threw for just 143 yards and no touchdowns. He may fare
better than that this week, but he will still finish below the
baseline. The Dolphins have the second-lowest yards per attempt
in the league, and have given up only six passing touchdowns all
season.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Brett Favre |
GB
|
QB5
|
41st
|
Favre's going on the road to face the best pass
defense in the league. The Redskins have been dominant defensively
this year, ranking first in both passing yards and rushing yards
allowed. At home, expect the Skins D to continue to hold opposing
QBs under 200 yards, and they've only given up four TDs through
the air this year.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Chad Pennington |
NYJ
|
QB12
|
74th
|
This man is becoming a frequent target of mine
in the ready to disappoint category. I will be willing to place
QBs facing Miami in this category until that pass D looks beatable.
And with DT Tim Bowens gone for the year, the Dolphins inconsistent
run D will become consistent - a consistent sieve of yardage up
the middle. If Curtis Martin has a big day, Pennie will not. And
with the Jets' receiving crew continuing to ache, Pennington will
be in for low numbers against the Dolphins. I have picked him
twice before to finish below the QB12, and I was dead on - three
times is the charm.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Chester Taylor |
Bal
|
RB37
|
108th
|
Chester Taylor has the unenviable task of replacing
Jamal Lewis on a team that is without All-World T Jon Ogden and
heads to Lincoln Financial Field to play the undefeated Eagles.
But as potent as the Eagles are, they allow a ton of yardage to
opposing RBs, and Taylor is sure to be a big part of the Ravens
plan with Todd Heap still out and QB Kyle Boller struggling to produce
in the passing game. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Kevin Jones |
Det
|
RB31
|
84th
|
The Cowboys could have drafted Kevin Jones this
year with the No. 22 pick in the draft instead of trading down
to select Julius Jones. Kevin Jones was hurt earlier in the season,
but has bounced back nicely and scored his first NFL touchdown
last week. He will try to build on that performance against a
Cowboy defense that is giving up a league-worst 5.10 yards per
carry.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Willis McGahee |
Buf
|
RB30
|
82nd
|
The Cardinals have allowed 4.8 yards per carry
this year, and Willis McGahee should close in on 100 yards this
weekend. While I don't think he deserves to be the starter, it's
clear that the Bills want to see what they have in him. For fantasy
owners, that means he's going to get a good deal of touches, and
he's facing one of the weaker opponents he'll see this year.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Willis McGahee |
Buf
|
RB30
|
82nd
|
This one is almost a gimmee. Willis finally gets
his first NFL start - he was very impressive replacing Henry in
the game against the Dolphins, as he went over 100 yards and scored
his first NFL TD. More of the same this week against the Cardinals,
who, even though they have a surprisingly good run defense, are
not the same team on the road as they are at home. In front of
the home crowd, I think McGahee is a shoe-in for rising above
the baseline of RB24.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Reuben Droughns |
Den
|
RB13
|
17th
|
Droughns has been a man possessed in his first 3 NFL
starts and faces a Falcons defense that allowed an NFL record 8
rushing touchdowns last week against the Chiefs. Most owners will
be salivating at the prospect of starting Droughns, but a closer
look shows that the Falcons have been stout against the run in every
game BUT the Chiefs contest, and there's no way HC Jim Mora and
that team aren't laser focused on making the Broncos beat them via
the pass after last week's embarrassment. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Reuben Droughns |
Den
|
RB13
|
17th
|
The Falcon run defense was ranked #1 in the league
before the Chiefs embarrassed them last week for 271 yards and
8 touchdowns. They will redouble their effort against the run
this week to make sure that doesn't happen again. Droughns has
had three 100+ yard games in a row, but expect that streak to
come to a halt this Sunday as the Falcons look to smother him.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Duce Staley |
Pit
|
RB21
|
35th
|
Going against the Patriots is always a tough challenge,
as New England has one of the best defenses in football. I'm sure
Belichick has some schemes in mind to harass Ben Roethlisberger,
but that only works if they shut down the run game first. Expect
New England to do just that, and to try and make the rookie QB
beat them.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Corey Dillon |
NE
|
RB8
|
10th
|
It has to crash sometime for the Pats - it almost
did last week against the Jets. This is the week. Going on the
road against an extremely hostile Pittsburgh Steelers team, a
team that seems to have new life this year, the Pats will find
themselves facing a seriously long day. It will be the arm of
Brady, not the legs of Dillon, that will be called on to save
the team. The Pitt LBs in the 3-4 are annually extremely tough
to run against, and Dillon has never had much success against
them. He won't buck that trend this week at Heinz Field.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Keenan McCardell |
SD
|
WR37
|
104th
|
This is probably one of the last week's McCardell
will be sitting outside the top 30 in our top 200 list. Last week,
just days after getting off the plane and joining the team, McCardell
was the most targeted receiver for a surprising Chargers team. McCardell
swore he would keep himself in game shape during his holdout, and
he appears to have done so. Now, as he gets more comfortable with
the offensive playbook, nothing should keep him from being a solid
top 20-25 type of receiver the rest of the way. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Rod Gardner |
Was
|
WR40
|
111th
|
The Packers' top two defensive backs -- safety
Darren Sharper and cornerback Al Harris -- are hobbled with knee
injuries and may miss this weekend's game. That would leave Rod
Gardner to be covered primarily by either Ahmad Carroll, Joey
Thomas, or Jason Horton -- all rookies -- and Gardner should be
able to take advantage of the situation.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Santana Moss |
NYJ
|
WR33
|
92nd
|
Last year at the Meadowlands, Santana Moss torched
the Dolphins for 142 yards and a score. The Jets passing game
has always had success against Miami, and expect Moss to be featured
more heavily this week. Following a poor showing against New England,
look for the Jets to reestablish their top wide receiver.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Jerry Porter |
Oak
|
WR36
|
101st
|
My favorite WR for this spot - Donald Driver -
was finally elevated to where he should have been on the top-200
several weeks ago. Now I have to find another mule to ride. It
was going to be Rod Smith, but consistency and a solid running
game are a problem for Rod. The revitalized Jerry Porter is my
man - San Diego has serious difficulties against opposing receivers,
as they rank near the bottom of the league in FF points sacrificed.
Moreover, the Raiders' RBs are still a hurting unit. Look for
Porter to continue his climb back into your hearts, and to score
near 100 yards, and maybe a TD, this weekend.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Chris Chambers |
Mia
|
WR25
|
67th
|
Chris Chambers appeared to break out of his funk last
week but upon closer inspection you see that two of his 3 receptions
were on a WR trick pass and during an all out blitz where he was
uncovered. The Dolphins continue to be one of the worst offensive
squads in the league and face a Jets team that's fired up after
losing its first game last week versus New England. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Keary Colbert |
Car
|
WR29
|
78th
|
I like Colbert a lot, but the Panthers' passing
game is struggling so badly right now I wouldn't start anybody
associated with it. The loss of RBs Stephen Davis and DeShaun
Foster has allowed opposing defenses to focus more on stopping
the pass, and Delhomme has been inaccurate.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Chris Chambers |
Mia
|
WR25
|
67th
|
Chambers had a great game against the Rams, but
expect the entire Dolphins offense to come back to earth this
week. Playing on Monday night on the road against the Jets will
be a tough task, for a team that is just happy to have won a game.
The Jets defense is starting to play better, and they'll be focused
coming off a loss.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Plaxico Burress |
Pit
|
WR22
|
62nd
|
One thing the Patriots do VERY well is not allow
the big play downfield to receivers. That is Plaxico Burress'
bread and butter. Another thing the Pats do VERY well is they
throw lots of different looks at the QB to confuse him - Big Ben
has looked good, but he has never seen a pass D like the Pats.
Now, don't get me wrong - I think the Steelers will have success
passing the ball - but it will be the tough catch to Ward, not
the easy deep pass to Plex, that will rule the day this Sunday.
|
|
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Mark Campbell |
Buf
|
TE27
|
232nd
|
Campbell isn't going to be confused with Tony Gonzalez
anytime soon but the Bills face off against a Cardinals defense
that has allowed a ton of points to opposing tight ends. With McGahee
and Henry both expected to figure heavily into the game plan, I
can envision Campbell being open for a goal line TD grab at some
point during the game; a nice value start if your regular starter
is injured or on the bye. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Bubba Franks |
GB
|
TE12
|
122nd
|
Brett Favre has had three straight games with
at least 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Packers are moving the
ball well, and Bubba Franks is always a threat in the red zone.
He has three touchdowns so far this year, and will look to add
another one this Sunday.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Dallas Clark |
Ind
|
TE15
|
140th
|
Clark scored a touchdown last week, and has a
great chance to score again this weekend. The Chiefs-Colts game
has all the makings of a shoot-out, and the Chiefs won't be able
to cover all of the Colts weapons. If you've got a Colt, they
warrant a start on Sunday.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Dallas Clark |
Ind
|
TE15
|
140th
|
Shoot out in Kansas City - everyone gets some.
Seriously, play every fantasy player you own on these teams. As
for TEs specifically, let's call it a hunch that Manning deals
with the Wayne fiasco by looking for Harrison instead of Wayne
or Stokley on every pass play - and that his check-down if Harrison
is covered will be Dallas Clark. And, in the red zone, at least
one TD look will go Clark's way as KC's LBs won't be able to keep
up with him. Finally, KC is middle of the road - 16th - in FP/game
given up to the TE, but they hadn't faced a single decent TE before
Crumpler last week (who they handled surprisingly well). But let's
face it - Indie's clicking right now, Atlanta is not.
|
|
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
|
Jason Wood Selects.... |
Alge Crumpler |
Atl
|
TE4
|
61st
|
Anyone that expected Crumpler to be a difference maker
this year has to have noticed that Mike Vick's acclimation to the
West Coast offense has been slow. This week, they face a Denver
Broncos defense that has absolutely shut down opposing tight ends
with a speedy and disciplined linebacking corps. Give Crumpler a
rest if you have a solid TE2 option. |
|
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
|
Daniel Graham |
NE
|
TE7
|
71st
|
Graham scored five touchdowns in his first four
games, but hasn't gotten into the end zone in the last two weeks.
He faces a Steeler defense that has enough speed at linebacker
to make life difficult for Graham. Graham will get a couple of
catches -- he always does -- but I expect him to have a below-average
game, and to be held without a score.
|
|
Chase Stuart Selects....
|
Freddie Jones |
Ari
|
TE10
|
98th
|
Jones only sees a few catches per week anyway,
but his targets should drop in Buffalo. The Bills have a strong
LB corps and should be able to contain Jones. Additionally, the
return on Anquan Boldin means Jones will start to see less looks
each week.
|
|
Marc Levin Selects....
|
Eric Johnson |
SF
|
TE3
|
49th
|
It is a weird anomaly - the Chicago Bears lead
the league in fewest FP/game given up to TEs - at 1.7. Meanwhile,
Rattay is hurting a bit, the team has all their receivers healthy,
the Bears are not exceptionally good at stopping the run (they
give up the 20th most FF points to RBs), and the 9ers are always
looking to get Barlow off. Even though Eric has been a gamer in
starting every game even though he is slowed by an injury, he
will not make any noise this week as other players do the job
for the 9ers.
|
|