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Beyond the Baseline



Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Drew Brees
SD
QB23
97th
It wasn't long ago everyone was betting on when, not if rookie QB Phil Rivers would become the Chargers starter. But a fast start and heady play by Brees all but assures he'll remain the team's starter until such time as San Diego falls out of the race. With Keenan McCardell onboard; Brees has weapons can take advantage of the Raiders secondary.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Drew Brees
SD
QB23
97th
The Chargers offensive line is giving Drew Brees a surprising amount of time to throw, and Brees is playing the best football of his career. With LaDainian Tomlinson still recovering from a sore groin, the Chargers may rely on their passing game, including new weapon Keenan McCardell, to move the ball against the Raiders, who are giving up 7.76 yards per pass attempt (31st in the league). The Raiders have allowed 11 touchdown passes and have only 4 interceptions.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Kerry Collins
Oak
QB24
119th
Kerry Collins threw for 350 and two scores last week, and he's got another lackluster opponent this week. Playing in San Diego, Collins should be able to challenge for 300 yards again. The Chargers have allowed more completions than any team in the league, and are in the bottom three in passing yards allowed.
Marc Levin Selects....
Vinny Testaverde
Dal
QB25
126th
Detroit's defense is giving up a lot of fantasy points across the board. The Cowboys are at home. Vinny has put up numbers, even though he is on a short leash. The Cowboys need this victory. A lot of the other big name QBs have some tough matchups. I look for Vinny to have a good enough day to be a top-12 QB this week, especially since the Dallas run game seems to continue to be floundering. Glenn and Morgan hurting is worrisome, but that just means the more steady receivers - Richie Anderson, Keyshawn Johnson and Jason Witten - may have huge days.
Picks to finish BELOW
t
he Baseline (QB12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Chad Pennington
NYJ
QB12
74th
Just because the Dolphins are struggling mightily this year doesn't mean the Fins don't still know how to play defense. The Dolphins are allowing a sparse 12.7 PPG against opposing fantasy QBs and Pennington, while playing efficiently, hasn't been putting up monster numbers to begin with.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Chad Pennington
NYJ
QB12
74th
When Pennington faced the Dolphins four weeks ago, he threw for just 143 yards and no touchdowns. He may fare better than that this week, but he will still finish below the baseline. The Dolphins have the second-lowest yards per attempt in the league, and have given up only six passing touchdowns all season.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Brett Favre
GB
QB5
41st
Favre's going on the road to face the best pass defense in the league. The Redskins have been dominant defensively this year, ranking first in both passing yards and rushing yards allowed. At home, expect the Skins D to continue to hold opposing QBs under 200 yards, and they've only given up four TDs through the air this year.
Marc Levin Selects....
Chad Pennington
NYJ
QB12
74th
This man is becoming a frequent target of mine in the ready to disappoint category. I will be willing to place QBs facing Miami in this category until that pass D looks beatable. And with DT Tim Bowens gone for the year, the Dolphins inconsistent run D will become consistent - a consistent sieve of yardage up the middle. If Curtis Martin has a big day, Pennie will not. And with the Jets' receiving crew continuing to ache, Pennington will be in for low numbers against the Dolphins. I have picked him twice before to finish below the QB12, and I was dead on - three times is the charm.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Chester Taylor
Bal
RB37
108th
Chester Taylor has the unenviable task of replacing Jamal Lewis on a team that is without All-World T Jon Ogden and heads to Lincoln Financial Field to play the undefeated Eagles. But as potent as the Eagles are, they allow a ton of yardage to opposing RBs, and Taylor is sure to be a big part of the Ravens plan with Todd Heap still out and QB Kyle Boller struggling to produce in the passing game.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Kevin Jones
Det
RB31
84th
The Cowboys could have drafted Kevin Jones this year with the No. 22 pick in the draft instead of trading down to select Julius Jones. Kevin Jones was hurt earlier in the season, but has bounced back nicely and scored his first NFL touchdown last week. He will try to build on that performance against a Cowboy defense that is giving up a league-worst 5.10 yards per carry.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Willis McGahee
Buf
RB30
82nd
The Cardinals have allowed 4.8 yards per carry this year, and Willis McGahee should close in on 100 yards this weekend. While I don't think he deserves to be the starter, it's clear that the Bills want to see what they have in him. For fantasy owners, that means he's going to get a good deal of touches, and he's facing one of the weaker opponents he'll see this year.
Marc Levin Selects....
Willis McGahee
Buf
RB30
82nd
This one is almost a gimmee. Willis finally gets his first NFL start - he was very impressive replacing Henry in the game against the Dolphins, as he went over 100 yards and scored his first NFL TD. More of the same this week against the Cardinals, who, even though they have a surprisingly good run defense, are not the same team on the road as they are at home. In front of the home crowd, I think McGahee is a shoe-in for rising above the baseline of RB24.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (RB24)
Jason Wood Selects....
Reuben Droughns
Den
RB13
17th
Droughns has been a man possessed in his first 3 NFL starts and faces a Falcons defense that allowed an NFL record 8 rushing touchdowns last week against the Chiefs. Most owners will be salivating at the prospect of starting Droughns, but a closer look shows that the Falcons have been stout against the run in every game BUT the Chiefs contest, and there's no way HC Jim Mora and that team aren't laser focused on making the Broncos beat them via the pass after last week's embarrassment.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Reuben Droughns
Den
RB13
17th
The Falcon run defense was ranked #1 in the league before the Chiefs embarrassed them last week for 271 yards and 8 touchdowns. They will redouble their effort against the run this week to make sure that doesn't happen again. Droughns has had three 100+ yard games in a row, but expect that streak to come to a halt this Sunday as the Falcons look to smother him.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Duce Staley
Pit
RB21
35th
Going against the Patriots is always a tough challenge, as New England has one of the best defenses in football. I'm sure Belichick has some schemes in mind to harass Ben Roethlisberger, but that only works if they shut down the run game first. Expect New England to do just that, and to try and make the rookie QB beat them.
Marc Levin Selects....
Corey Dillon
NE
RB8
10th
It has to crash sometime for the Pats - it almost did last week against the Jets. This is the week. Going on the road against an extremely hostile Pittsburgh Steelers team, a team that seems to have new life this year, the Pats will find themselves facing a seriously long day. It will be the arm of Brady, not the legs of Dillon, that will be called on to save the team. The Pitt LBs in the 3-4 are annually extremely tough to run against, and Dillon has never had much success against them. He won't buck that trend this week at Heinz Field.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Keenan McCardell
SD
WR37
104th
This is probably one of the last week's McCardell will be sitting outside the top 30 in our top 200 list. Last week, just days after getting off the plane and joining the team, McCardell was the most targeted receiver for a surprising Chargers team. McCardell swore he would keep himself in game shape during his holdout, and he appears to have done so. Now, as he gets more comfortable with the offensive playbook, nothing should keep him from being a solid top 20-25 type of receiver the rest of the way.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Rod Gardner
Was
WR40
111th
The Packers' top two defensive backs -- safety Darren Sharper and cornerback Al Harris -- are hobbled with knee injuries and may miss this weekend's game. That would leave Rod Gardner to be covered primarily by either Ahmad Carroll, Joey Thomas, or Jason Horton -- all rookies -- and Gardner should be able to take advantage of the situation.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Santana Moss
NYJ
WR33
92nd
Last year at the Meadowlands, Santana Moss torched the Dolphins for 142 yards and a score. The Jets passing game has always had success against Miami, and expect Moss to be featured more heavily this week. Following a poor showing against New England, look for the Jets to reestablish their top wide receiver.
Marc Levin Selects....
Jerry Porter
Oak
WR36
101st
My favorite WR for this spot - Donald Driver - was finally elevated to where he should have been on the top-200 several weeks ago. Now I have to find another mule to ride. It was going to be Rod Smith, but consistency and a solid running game are a problem for Rod. The revitalized Jerry Porter is my man - San Diego has serious difficulties against opposing receivers, as they rank near the bottom of the league in FF points sacrificed. Moreover, the Raiders' RBs are still a hurting unit. Look for Porter to continue his climb back into your hearts, and to score near 100 yards, and maybe a TD, this weekend.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (WR30)
Jason Wood Selects....
Chris Chambers
Mia
WR25
67th
Chris Chambers appeared to break out of his funk last week but upon closer inspection you see that two of his 3 receptions were on a WR trick pass and during an all out blitz where he was uncovered. The Dolphins continue to be one of the worst offensive squads in the league and face a Jets team that's fired up after losing its first game last week versus New England.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Keary Colbert
Car
WR29
78th
I like Colbert a lot, but the Panthers' passing game is struggling so badly right now I wouldn't start anybody associated with it. The loss of RBs Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster has allowed opposing defenses to focus more on stopping the pass, and Delhomme has been inaccurate.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Chris Chambers
Mia
WR25
67th
Chambers had a great game against the Rams, but expect the entire Dolphins offense to come back to earth this week. Playing on Monday night on the road against the Jets will be a tough task, for a team that is just happy to have won a game. The Jets defense is starting to play better, and they'll be focused coming off a loss.
Marc Levin Selects....
Plaxico Burress
Pit
WR22
62nd
One thing the Patriots do VERY well is not allow the big play downfield to receivers. That is Plaxico Burress' bread and butter. Another thing the Pats do VERY well is they throw lots of different looks at the QB to confuse him - Big Ben has looked good, but he has never seen a pass D like the Pats. Now, don't get me wrong - I think the Steelers will have success passing the ball - but it will be the tough catch to Ward, not the easy deep pass to Plex, that will rule the day this Sunday.
Picks to finish ABOVE
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Mark Campbell
Buf
TE27
232nd
Campbell isn't going to be confused with Tony Gonzalez anytime soon but the Bills face off against a Cardinals defense that has allowed a ton of points to opposing tight ends. With McGahee and Henry both expected to figure heavily into the game plan, I can envision Campbell being open for a goal line TD grab at some point during the game; a nice value start if your regular starter is injured or on the bye.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Bubba Franks
GB
TE12
122nd
Brett Favre has had three straight games with at least 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Packers are moving the ball well, and Bubba Franks is always a threat in the red zone. He has three touchdowns so far this year, and will look to add another one this Sunday.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Dallas Clark
Ind
TE15
140th
Clark scored a touchdown last week, and has a great chance to score again this weekend. The Chiefs-Colts game has all the makings of a shoot-out, and the Chiefs won't be able to cover all of the Colts weapons. If you've got a Colt, they warrant a start on Sunday.
Marc Levin Selects....
Dallas Clark
Ind
TE15
140th
Shoot out in Kansas City - everyone gets some. Seriously, play every fantasy player you own on these teams. As for TEs specifically, let's call it a hunch that Manning deals with the Wayne fiasco by looking for Harrison instead of Wayne or Stokley on every pass play - and that his check-down if Harrison is covered will be Dallas Clark. And, in the red zone, at least one TD look will go Clark's way as KC's LBs won't be able to keep up with him. Finally, KC is middle of the road - 16th - in FP/game given up to the TE, but they hadn't faced a single decent TE before Crumpler last week (who they handled surprisingly well). But let's face it - Indie's clicking right now, Atlanta is not.
Picks to finish BELOW
the Baseline (TE12)
Jason Wood Selects....
Alge Crumpler
Atl
TE4
61st
Anyone that expected Crumpler to be a difference maker this year has to have noticed that Mike Vick's acclimation to the West Coast offense has been slow. This week, they face a Denver Broncos defense that has absolutely shut down opposing tight ends with a speedy and disciplined linebacking corps. Give Crumpler a rest if you have a solid TE2 option.
Maurile Tremblay Selects....
Daniel Graham
NE
TE7
71st
Graham scored five touchdowns in his first four games, but hasn't gotten into the end zone in the last two weeks. He faces a Steeler defense that has enough speed at linebacker to make life difficult for Graham. Graham will get a couple of catches -- he always does -- but I expect him to have a below-average game, and to be held without a score.
Chase Stuart Selects....
Freddie Jones
Ari
TE10
98th
Jones only sees a few catches per week anyway, but his targets should drop in Buffalo. The Bills have a strong LB corps and should be able to contain Jones. Additionally, the return on Anquan Boldin means Jones will start to see less looks each week.
Marc Levin Selects....
Eric Johnson
SF
TE3
49th
It is a weird anomaly - the Chicago Bears lead the league in fewest FP/game given up to TEs - at 1.7. Meanwhile, Rattay is hurting a bit, the team has all their receivers healthy, the Bears are not exceptionally good at stopping the run (they give up the 20th most FF points to RBs), and the 9ers are always looking to get Barlow off. Even though Eric has been a gamer in starting every game even though he is slowed by an injury, he will not make any noise this week as other players do the job for the 9ers.
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