As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

"You've got to know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold'em"
…Kenny Rogers

The NFL is an unforgiving game. Players and coaches have just 16 chances to prove themselves on the field. Even a few subpar showings can be the difference between a dream season and Super Bowl appearance, and missing out on the playoffs.

The same can be said for fantasy football managers. Most leagues use 13- or 14-week regular seasons to whittle down the league for playoff contention. With four weeks of the NFL season in the books, it's time to take a very hard look at your rosters because time is running short on making those savvy moves to reshape your team from pretender into contender (or to ensure your team continues apace if you started off well).

One of the most difficult things for any fantasy owner is to objectively identify which players are simply "getting off to slow starts" versus becoming season-long disappointments. It's particularly difficult for many of us to be rational about players on our own rosters, because admitting that your "can't miss sleeper" is now better suited to the waiver wire is a de facto admission that you were wrong. Nevertheless, the savvy football owner is able to recognize when changes need to be made; or when it's better to stay the course.

Without further ado, here are a selection of players that have either gotten off to impressive or problematic starts and whether it makes sense to stay the course or consider other options.

Sell High (Guys to Trade Away)
Players whose performance YTD may not reflect their value through the remainder of the season

Quarterbacks

1. Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets
   Pennington is off to a hot start completing 70% of his passes and leading his team to a convincing 3-0 start out of the gate. However, this is a situation where real-life NFL success may help you unload Pennington for more than his actual fantasy value dictates. Remember, we warned against betting on Pennington as your QB1 this preseason because the Jets are a running team first and foremost. While Pennington is capable of 4,000 yards and 30 TDs based on talent, the offensive system won't make that possible. Three games into the NFL season and our prediction appears spot on.
   
   Pennington is on pace for:
   • 299 completions
   • 427 pass attempts
   • 3,333 passing yards
   • 21 touchdowns
   • 5 interceptions
   
   Those numbers are just what the Jets need to keep winning provided Curtis Martin remains healthy, but they're not good enough for your fantasy team. Offer Pennington up in trade talks based on the perception that he's become an elite QB before people in your league realize what his full season totals project out to.
   
   
2. Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis Rams
   Bulger has certainly lived up to preseason expectations thus far, ranking 6th in fantasy points among QBs. However, a closer look at the Rams situation suggests that you would be better off trading Bulger if you can get representative value in return. Bulger has only thrown for 4 touchdowns through 4 weeks, and the team's uneven play casts doubt on whether the Rams remain the "Greatest Show on Turf."
   
   Importantly, Bulger faces one of the more difficult schedules the rest of the way. In the remaining 12 games, Bulger faces 6 of the league's 8 stingiest fantasy defenses (against the pass) and only gets two "easy" matchups (i.e., one of the 8 team allowing the most points to fantasy passers).

Running Backs

1. Kevan Barlow, RB, San Francisco 49ers
   Nothing is more infuriating to a fantasy owner than seeing your otherwise healthy player standing on the sidelines where the only points he can rack up are for drinking Gatorade. Kevan Barlow used to be on the sidelines quite a bit because he split time with Garrison Hearst. This year, with Hearst gone and Barlow signed to a new deal, he was supposed to be the workhorse for an otherwise modestly talented 49ers offense. Yet, Barlow has been noticeably absent from the game for major chunks of the last few weeks. The problem is partly due to the 49ers ineptitude, forcing the team into obvious passing situations as they try to catch up while trailing. But that doesn't tell the whole story.
   
   Through four games Barlow is on pace for:
   • 256 rushes
   • 1,016 yards
   • 44 receptions
   • 344 yards receiving
   • 8 touchdowns
   
   These aren't the kind of numbers you can hang your hat on week in, week out especially when you consider that both of his touchdowns YTD came in one game. When you consider that San Francisco has a difficult schedule versus the run the rest of the way (3 hard games, only 1 easy game) it's time to consider trading Barlow while most of the league still views him as a marginal RB1, solid RB2.
   
   
2. Quentin Griffin, RB, Denver Broncos
   If you drafted Griffin chances are you a) got him as your RB3 or RB4 and b) felt like a genius after Week 1 (156 yards rushing, 3 touchdowns). However, the last three weeks have cast what I believe to be a permanent shadow on Griffin's prospects.
   
   Since his Week 1 showing, Griffin has averaged:
   • 19 carries
   • 46 yards rushing
   • 2.4 YPC
   • 3 receptions
   • 22 receiving yards
   • 0 touchdowns
   • 1 fumble
   
   As depressing as the rushing output may be, it's that final metric - the fumbles - which is the greatest cause for concern. Denver simply isn't dynamic enough on offense to turn the ball over frequently and expect to win games; and Shanahan won't continue to give the rock to someone who puts it on the ground (in the most inopportune times). This week against Carolina is a HUGE week, in my view. If Griffin fails to rebound this week and/or if Shanahan gives Bell or Droughns major touches, Griffin's trade value could collapse. If you've got decent RB depth and have a need elsewhere, throw some feelers out there for Griffin and see if anyone is willing to value him as a RB2/RB1 with upside.

Wide Receivers

1. Peerless Price, WR, Atlanta Falcons
   Peerless Price was drafted as a WR2 in 10- and 12-team leagues and, needless to say, his production season-to-date has hardly justified the selection.
   
   Price is on pace for:
   • 40 receptions
   • 472 yards
   • 0 touchdowns
   
   However, the mystique behind Michael Vick and the perception that Vick will continue to magically evolve into a polished West Coast passer continue to inflate Price's value far above where his production dictates. Use that to your advantage and package Price (who some will still bet on as a WR2/WR3) to upgrade at another position.
   
   Not only will Atlanta likely be among the league's worst passing teams this year (on pace for 2,420 yards passing and 8 touchdowns) but Price has not shown the physical skills to gain separation and beat double coverage that he sees as the de facto "number one" receiver for Atlanta. The critics who maintained that Price's strong 2002 season in Buffalo was a result of Eric Moulds lining up opposite him appear completely right, and it's high time you moved Price to another owner who has yet to realize that.
   
   
2. Marvin Harrison, WR, Indianapolis Colts
   Let me be VERY clear about this, I'm not suggesting for a second that Marvin Harrison isn't still one of the best receivers in the game or that he's not going to put up WR1 numbers the remainder of the season. However, Harrison sits in rarefied air among WRs and is one of the few pass catchers that could arguably land you an elite QB or RB in return via trade. So, if you've got good depth at the WR position but have a need for a major upgrade elsewhere, it may behoove you to solicit some trade offers.
   
   Through four games, Harrison is on pace for:
   • 104 receptions
   • 1,008 yards
   • 12 touchdowns
   
   Very solid numbers to be sure, so why even entertain the prospect of dealing Harrison? Because the Colts are no longer a one-trick pony thanks to the emergence of Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley. Through the first month, Wayne and Stokley are actually having BETTER fantasy seasons than Harrison:
   • R. Wayne - 84 receptions, 1,460 yards, 8 touchdowns
   • B. Stokley - 88 receptions, 1,244 yards, 12 touchdowns
   
   I'm not saying that Wayne or Stokley will finish the year with better stats than Harrison, but they don't have to in order to justify dealing Marvin right now. With both WRs being viable threats week in, week out; Harrison is in the position of having the occasional off week. In other words, Harrison is now mortal and that means if you can replace him with a 1st round RB or elite QB straight up, it wouldn't be the worst idea.
   
   
3. Reche Caldwell, WR, San Diego Chargers
   Caldwell has come out of nowhere to sit among the top 10 fantasy WRs through the first four weeks. The great news for Caldwell owners is that you got him cheaply (either a very late draft pick or more likely off waivers) and can now parlay the newfound perception of his being an emerging WR1 into excellent trade value. I'm not convinced that Caldwell is the real deal, certainly not enough to pass up on a chance of trading him to someone who views him as a WR1/WR2.
   
   To be clear, you shouldn't hand over Caldwell for nothing, but using him as a bargaining chip to sweeten the pot on a deal that improves another position makes sense to me for several reasons.
   
   One, Caldwell's fantasy value season-to-date is largely tied into his 3 touchdowns. His production equates to:
   • 56 receptions
   • 1,125 yards
   • 12 touchdowns
   
   TD production is unpredictable and the Chargers are far from an offensive juggernaut. The likelihood is that the TD production is the anomaly while the receptions totals are more in line with Caldwell's expected level of performance.
   
   Two, the Chargers have one of the most difficult schedules against the pass over the final 13 weeks of the season.

Buy Low (Guys to Trade For)
Players whose performance YTD inaccurately depresses their value for the remainder of the season

Quarterbacks

1. Tim Rattay, QB, San Francisco 49ers
   The fact that Tim Rattay has missed time already and that the 49ers are winless make Rattay very inexpensive to acquire via trade; yet he's someone you should consider looking at as a solid QB2 on the cheap. The 49ers, despite having Kevan Barlow at tailback, are on pace to throw the ball more than 600 times this year. More importantly, Rattay has been productive in the 2 games he's played.
   
   Projecting his stats over a 16 game season equates to:
   • 392 completions
   • 624 passing attempts
   • 3,792 yards passing
   • 32 touchdowns
   • 16 interceptions
   
   While I'm not suggesting that Rattay will end up maintaining such a prolific TD pace, it's a very good bet he'll put up better than 20+ touchdowns and 3,500+ passing yards given how often the team is throwing the ball. That's decent QB2 production from someone that can be had as a throw-in part of a multi-player trade.
   
   
2. Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay Packers
   With the Packers sitting at 1-3 and Favre playing only part of last week's game due to a bum shoulder, now is the time to make a move to acquire him relatively cheaply. Chances are that Favre's owner isn't married to him and is unsure of whether he's an "every week" start at this stage of his career. Acquire him now before Favre proves the critics wrong in the coming few weeks. Remember, Favre led the league in touchdown passes last year, and this season is off to another strong start.
   
   If you pro rate Favre's YTD totals over 3.5 games played and project them over the full season, it equates to:
   • 370 completions
   • 576 attempts
   • 3,954 yards
   • 32 touchdowns
   • 14 interceptions
   
   Also note that Favre has one of the easiest schedules left among fantasy quarterbacks; in his final 12 games, he faces six "easy" defenses (i.e., the worst 8 defenses versus fantasy QBs) and only one "hard" matchup. That's easily the best ratio in the league and ensures that he'll have every opportunity to put up another top-10 season provided he stays healthy. You can acquire Favre for less than QB1 prices right now, but not for long.

Running Backs

1. Michael Pittman, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   I've not been the staunchest supporter of Michael Pittman in the past, mainly because he failed to score more than 2 touchdowns last year despite touching the ball 262 times. However, Pittman can (and should) be a virtual lock to finish among the top 20 RBs the rest of the way, and you can almost assuredly trade for him without paying that high a price. Pittman sat out the first three games of the year and went undrafted in many 10- and 12-team leagues because of the presence of Charlie Garner. But with Garner gone, the Bucs 0-4 and in desperate need of playmakers and youngster Chris Simms taking over at QB, the writing is on the wall for Pittman to contribute heavily.
   
   On one hand, HC Jon Gruden will want to run the ball in order to keep the pressure off Simms in the early going. Second, Simms is likely to use Pittman as a safety valve; he caught 75 passes a year ago and is better than most as a receiver out of the backfield.
   
   When you consider that Tampa Bay has one of the easiest remaining schedules against the run (six easy matchups), making a trade for Pittman (soon) makes a ton of sense.
   
   
2. Duce Staley, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
   Duce Staley has run with power and vision behind a Steelers line that's held up better than most predicted. Oddly, Staley has historically been known as an excellent receiver but not someone that's going to run the ball 20-25 times per game, yet that hasn't been the case so far in Pittsburgh; as Staley is on pace for:
   • 348 carries
   • 1,488 yards
   • 4.3 YPC
   • 8 receptions
   • 48 yards receiving
   • 0 touchdowns
   
   Despite not being a factor as a receiver OR at the goal line through four games, Staley's yardage has still made him a decent RB2. Yet, with rookie Ben Roethlisberger taking over for Tommy Maddox, you can be sure that Staley's receiving skills will be a welcome safety net. Additionally, Staley will have chances to score, regardless of whether the team uses Jerome Bettis as the goal line option. Don't hesitate to acquire Staley in the next week or two as your RB2, he won't disappoint.

Wide Receivers

1. Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
   Chad Johnson ranks 20th among fantasy WRs through the first month, hardly justifying the price most paid on draft day (when he was a consensus top 6 WR selection). More than a few owners are likely panicked over Johnson's lack of production season-to-date and looking to get "fair" value in return. I've personally seen Johnson traded for marginal RB2s in several leagues in the last two weeks.
   
   First let's start with the obvious; Chad Johnson is an excellent wide receiver. Few receivers in the game prepare are voraciously as CJ does. When you combine that with the combination of speed, route discipline, hands and body positioning that Johnson offers, there's no way he's going to continue to play at this level.
   
   Through four games, Johnson is on pace for:
   • 80 receptions
   • 1,188 yards
   • 4 touchdowns
   
   Carson Palmer's play is the key to this trade idea. Most Johnson owners are acutely aware that Carson Palmer has not lived up to preseason expectations or justified the benching of Jon Kitna, 2003's Comeback Player of the Year. Here's the key: either Carson Palmer will show improvement (which will translate to Johnson getting more production) OR Jon Kitna will get the job back. There's no way this Bengals team will be content to ride Palmer to a big-time losing season after going 8-8 last year. If Kitna gets his job back, you know what Johnson can do (90 receptions, 1,355 yards and 10 TDs a season ago).
   
   
2. Derrick Mason, WR, Tennessee Titans
   Derrick Mason is off to a slow start, as is the entire Titans passing attack. After the Titans threw for 4,031 yards (5th in the NFL) and 30 touchdowns (3rd in the NFL) a season ago, the Titans are on pace for a paltry:
   • 3,084 yards (22nd in the NFL)
   • 12 TDs (25th)
   • 5.55 yards-per-attempt (31st)
   
   Part of the reason to like Derrick Mason is that OC Mike Heimerdinger won't accept the current pace of passing production. The Titans win with a balanced attack, so for as good as RB Chris Brown has been, this team needs a healthy Steve McNair to make plays with his arm if they plan on going deep into the playoffs.
   
   The good news is that Mason came alive last week catching 12 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. With a healthy Billy Volek throwing him the ball, Mason showed he's still among the league's most reliable receivers. One can assume that Steve McNair will be back to MVP form upon his return, and that bodes well for Mason; not to mention the team has a very favorable schedule against the pass in the final 12 games. Use the Titans slow start to your advantage, and try to acquire Mason from someone who no longer views him as an every week starter; you'll be happy you did.
   
   
3. Johnnie Morton, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
   Johnnie Morton was rumored to be on the cutting block this preseason depending on how the other Chiefs receivers progressed. However, what a difference a month makes. With Eddie Kennison hobbled and TE Kris Wilson injured, Morton has worked himself back into the mix. In fact, Morton is on pace for nearly 70 receptions and 900 yards; yet his fantasy ranking YTD is an off-the-radar 46th mainly because he's yet to score a touchdown. However, Morton, when healthy has never had a problem scoring touchdowns and the Chiefs offense still has the ability to put points on the board in bunches. Target Morton as an acquisition (best as a "throw in" in 2 for 2s) in the next week or two and don't be surprised if you end up with a viable fantasy WR2/WR3 for a much cheaper trade price.

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 25 yards passing
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
• 4 points per passing TD
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues