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Drinen rambles about something having to do with:
Marty Booker
Introduction to these player comments
Well, you knew I wouldn't be able to make it through a whole year without writing another piece about the so-called "3rd-year rule," which states (erroneously) that wide receivers tend to break out in their third year. Yes, this horse has been beaten to death (and then shot a couple of times) but, since my database has grown considerably since my last stab at this, I figured I may as well run the numbers with the larger data set and see if anything turns up (teaser: something unexpected will turn up). This appears in Booker's comment because he was the only receiver who unquestionably and clearly did break out in 2001. And it just so happens he was in his third year. Good for him. 2001 was an odd year for WR breakouts. Aside from Booker, there were no clear cut cases, but there were lots and lots of players on the borderline: Darrell Jackson, Laveranues Coles, Peerless Price, Plaxico Burress, Troy Brown, Derrick Mason, David Boston, James Thrash. Any of those eight could, depending on how you want to define the term, be considered to have had a breakout in 2001. Now, my thoughts on this haven't changed much since I wrote this article, so I'll spare us both a re-run and instruct you to read it if you'd like a more elaborate description of my opinions on the topic. In particular, I'll be using (almost) the same definition of breakout. Here's the definition I used in my previous article. A WR is said to have a breakout season if the following three conditions hold:
I'm going to leave condition 3 as is, but I'm going to change the first two slightly. Instead of requiring 140 fantasy points, I am instead going to require that the WR finished above the baseline. The reason for the switch is that the data now extends back into the early 70s, when baselines were low, low, low. Nowadays, a typical baseline is in the vicinity of 140, which is why I chose that number originally. In the 70s, 140 fantasy points might well put you in the top 5. But that's the beauty of the baseline. It allows us to apply the same standards to receivers playing in drastically different conditions. With the new definition in place, I'll present the new numbers just as in the previous article. The new data set is all receivers who debuted in 1970 or later and finished above the baseline in any season during their career. The complete list is at the end of this comment. Here is the summary:
Year # of breakouts
----------------------
1 50
2 51
3 26
4 21
5 11
6 4
7 0
8 2
9 0
no brkout 75
The usual caveats still apply. Altering the definition a little will shift some guys from one category to another. But there is no definition that will make the third year clearly the most common year for a breakout. This is the same result as before, but this time it appears much stronger. Last time I looked at this, the 2nd and 3rd years were more or less the same, with just a slight edge to the 2nd. But with the expanded data set, the 2nd year has a huge lead on the 3rd. Rookie breakouts also appear more common. Since the added data is old data (from the 70s and early 80s), it seems that receivers were breaking out earlier in the old days than they are now. Let's check that out. First, here are the receivers who debuted between 1970 and 1989:
Year # of breakouts ---------------------- 1 38 2 39 3 15 4 13 5 4 6 3 7 0 8 1 9 0 no brkout 48 And here are the receivers who debuted between 1990 and 2001:
Year # of breakouts ---------------------- 1 12 2 12 3 11 4 8 5 7 6 1 7 0 8 1 9 0 no brkout 27 Sure enough. In the 70s and 80s, 48 percent of these receivers broke out in the first or second year. Since then, only 30 percent have. This data clearly shows that it takes WRs longer to develop now than it did in the 70s and 80s. Why is this? Offensive schemes are much more intricate today than they were back then, but the same is true in college and (I assume) high school. Is the pro passing game evolving faster than the college passing game? That seems backwards to me, but I can't figure out any other explanation. If this trend continues, maybe the 3rd-year rule will someday be correct.
DataNOTE: The season in green is the player's first season above the baseline. |
ROOKIE BREAKOUTS ---------------- Fred Barnett 121 119 143 17 143 89 74 23 Brian Blades 119 137 72 114 32 118 136 125 68 44 18 Billy Brooks 162 90 111 116 112 113 54 104 60 142 22 Charlie Brown 117 176 38 53 116 10 Eddie Brown 155 124 79 181 117 125 95 Tim Brown 114 1 45 87 111 161 185 194 168 173 155 171 180 174 Ken Burrow 111 80 100 61 44 Jerry Butler 109 121 132 58 57 89 42 Anthony Carter 130 112 134 163 132 150 103 83 109 28 0 Gary Clark 124 169 149 132 179 159 194 123 106 83 65 Cris Collinsworth 149 75 143 136 143 161 49 29 Isaac Curtis 137 130 135 116 46 92 107 79 73 40 69 14 Lawrence Dawsey 107 84 20 73 37 23 26 Jubilee Dunbar 69 7 HartLee Dykes 110 67 Derrick Gaffney 87 59 52 25 27 24 29 1 Joey Galloway 167 153 184 167 39 12 91 Willie Gault 135 95 78 120 114 52 93 117 59 75 6 Ernest Givins 145 128 130 97 158 133 146 115 58 46 Terry Glenn 153 55 97 139 136 26 Mel Gray 83 6 93 113 159 99 108 104 55 89 43 3 Marvin Harrison 133 122 120 239 225 243 John Jefferson 179 169 214 89 47 125 34 3 Alfred Jenkins 113 107 92 3 104 140 214 41 55 Billy Johnson 65 47 74 75 1 17 46 1 103 56 112 8 8 Bobby Johnson 122 101 86 Kevin Johnson 146 67 164 Keyshawn Johnson 132 126 185 166 136 133 Eddie Kennison 146 42 30 110 74 57 Steve Largent 93 124 165 178 143 187 68 174 189 165 162 143 76 58 Louis Lipps 153 193 77 16 150 148 86 79 0 James Lofton 119 121 147 177 111 182 186 141 108 118 55 35 95 155 115 18 Nat Moore 74 101 90 163 124 122 99 58 14 92 94 113 85 Randy Moss 234 212 234 188 Joel Parker 70 24 1 Billy Parks 93 36 64 39 1 Ahmad Rashad 72 59 67 85 80 125 170 140 130 23 Jerry Rice 119 260 251 201 254 228 205 192 253 249 284 187 13 170 114 122 168 Chris Sanders 134 112 67 13 40 54 7 Darnay Scott 127 113 114 110 125 144 94 James Scott 87 99 106 56 88 4 0 Ron Shanklin 93 101 85 131 38 3 Mike Sherrard 106 38 42 61 55 118 82 25 Mike Siani 80 92 9 29 29 46 21 33 23 Daryl Turner 132 145 75 51 Randy Vataha 141 49 45 76 108 25 11 Charlie Wade 73 0 0 Wesley Walker 95 165 87 44 131 98 129 104 103 174 25 98 9 Sammy White 150 130 131 96 125 118 80 66 46 8 Calvin Williams 114 51 102 133 99 89 15 2ND YEAR BREAKOUTS ------------------ Ray Alexander 19 115 14 Flipper Anderson 32 145 135 59 108 79 126 23 0 0 Stacey Bailey 8 124 150 36 5 51 56 17 4 Jerome Barkum 42 117 71 84 11 81 57 64 30 92 24 45 David Boston 59 158 211 Billy Brooks 18 101 63 27 4 Isaac Bruce 45 258 176 112 55 192 202 149 Plaxico Burress 28 137 Ray Butler 69 137 40 39 102 46 59 77 48 Mark Carrier 60 127 196 105 82 93 101 83 118 117 56 42 Cris Carter 20 112 128 60 126 106 161 168 239 176 185 173 202 181 124 Bob Chandler 6 86 59 15 111 142 99 88 0 139 70 0 Wes Chandler 60 143 134 150 160 117 107 181 111 74 3 Dwight Clark 23 147 138 121 134 124 131 91 59 Mark Clayton 26 247 125 178 120 197 156 59 177 80 51 Laveranues Coles 45 140 Germane Crowell 68 180 62 42 Preston Dennard 4 104 98 109 50 77 84 30 Glenn Doughty 6 92 47 91 94 69 57 63 Mark Duper 0 160 179 83 196 108 69 78 111 139 118 Antonio Freeman 17 147 198 227 143 146 117 Irving Fryar 21 118 118 82 80 73 109 121 104 131 169 139 185 168 72 37 86 Earnest Gray 78 138 48 67 144 65 2 Ike Harris 27 84 73 85 52 105 3 Courtney Hawkins 46 123 74 50 59 75 85 29 30 Bruce Hill 53 157 97 94 31 J.D. Hill 34 107 42 93 109 0 31 Lonzell Hill 43 113 87 4 Tony Hill 2 120 168 156 119 61 122 117 153 95 Steve Holden 3 64 32 19 0 Torry Holt 117 200 178 Kevin House 86 173 56 107 131 110 51 12 Michael Jackson 39 120 124 42 125 204 116 48 Richard Johnson 1 161 109 David Knight 14 82 0 52 13 Frank Lewis 4 76 59 63 46 45 32 116 120 101 148 56 67 Anthony Miller 75 187 137 83 148 158 141 192 101 89 Herman Moore 14 121 130 183 253 184 177 128 32 61 8 Morris Owens 0 75 83 94 38 Terrell Owens 76 142 205 99 224 239 Ken Payne 6 76 71 16 32 Drew Pearson 51 121 131 119 101 92 153 96 83 56 86 Mike Quick 22 219 159 191 148 145 75 35 20 Ray Rhodes 13 89 38 0 0 0 0 Golden Richards 15 76 71 59 41 38 17 Andre Rison 108 181 169 178 214 157 88 77 151 85 22 97 Marcus Robinson 10 194 105 39 Sterling Sharpe 85 217 148 121 225 194 221 Charlie Smith 3 96 74 72 26 46 104 81 Lynn Swann 34 145 70 122 155 118 113 81 29 Al Toon 85 165 128 137 81 112 97 43 3RD YEAR BREAKOUTS ------------------ Derrick Alexander 99 25 164 155 123 109 204 67 Marty Booker 41 61 163 Cliff Branch 5 47 187 145 184 90 77 121 128 70 83 102 40 0 Brian Brennan 64 56 121 97 64 29 69 39 25 Harold Carmichael 29 40 170 112 107 80 109 157 153 136 139 78 70 1 Roger Carr 41 64 177 26 99 46 122 76 39 4 Albert Connell 26 57 156 94 32 Curtis Conway 40 70 183 152 55 96 66 104 166 Bobby Engram 75 52 129 120 11 40 Mervyn Fernandez 24 105 163 115 75 12 Frank Grant 7 25 130 112 65 20 Roy Green 2 0 107 64 212 227 100 87 101 152 112 105 36 11 O.J. McDuffie 19 70 131 141 100 148 64 14 0 Willie Miller 6 0 106 18 84 15 41 Eric Moulds 44 35 191 142 165 121 Muhsin Muhammad 47 32 130 173 156 65 Stephone Paige 89 80 156 149 95 132 88 132 11 Carl Pickens 39 93 179 226 190 99 133 110 24 Reggie Rucker 26 13 87 92 68 95 119 69 139 111 101 59 Ricky Sanders 41 81 188 140 92 99 88 89 66 Bill Schroeder 8 51 135 125 146 Rod Smith 21 36 192 165 126 224 203 John Taylor 15 45 168 117 155 62 126 83 52 Pat Tilley 47 6 111 130 133 122 59 99 106 109 5 Floyd Turner 35 64 141 4 22 95 67 59 81 Steve Watson 8 15 203 67 145 159 122 88 23 4TH YEAR BREAKOUTS ------------------ Robert Brooks 20 20 89 230 59 145 60 5 Robert Clark 4 37 87 139 100 6 Wendell Davis 22 58 75 131 90 13 2 Andre Hastings 4 40 58 117 106 67 63 Michael Haynes 47 96 45 178 141 102 133 84 103 21 Michael Irvin 96 50 71 200 181 176 160 220 108 172 112 35 Patrick Jeffers 0 2 45 182 13 Haywood Jeffires 9 11 74 153 160 145 111 114 116 40 Leo Lewis 7 33 13 108 62 70 50 20 22 1 4 Dave Logan 10 34 83 140 106 74 47 75 0 Pete Mandley 4 32 11 114 96 54 10 Derrick Mason 18 51 9 120 167 Derrick Mayes 17 29 57 143 32 Tim McGee 35 46 105 173 80 104 59 68 22 Jake Reed 0 14 7 142 171 174 150 71 76 21 37 Jim Smith 8 20 38 125 101 63 9 Jimmy Smith 0 0 47 166 156 166 200 169 185 Tim Smith 2 4 0 155 138 78 7 Jon Staggers 18 11 18 69 45 32 John Stallworth 32 66 34 125 134 166 26 142 87 10 206 124 53 64 Amani Toomer 1 32 66 155 166 136 5TH+ YEAR BREAKOUTS ------------------ Joe Horn 4 7 26 96 183 181 Ray Jarvis 1 2 1 9 74 112 41 1 9 James Jett 95 25 24 84 152 125 67 48 2 Tony Martin 52 55 67 53 130 158 201 126 154 133 39 73 Terance Mathis 25 41 58 43 200 158 119 120 179 138 97 68 Johnny Perkins 28 70 58 37 122 55 0 Freddie Solomon 55 69 28 71 137 119 149 50 91 147 32 Yancey Thigpen 0 0 33 79 161 36 182 67 89 41 James Thrash 2 22 8 86 137 Rick Upchurch 71 53 44 30 137 83 79 58 78 Michael Westbrook 76 57 73 111 177 10 91 Matt Bouza 0 41 39 27 50 114 81 58 0 Drew Hill 15 54 55 9 63 171 141 135 174 142 132 135 80 38 Raghib Ismail 41 84 70 35 57 155 163 48 99 Freddie Scott 33 0 4 39 74 125 122 135 29 13 Ed McCaffrey 15 91 46 25 60 97 107 165 144 186 15 Mike Renfro 47 44 53 51 48 44 70 144 51 90 DID NOT BREAK OUT ----------------- Eddie Bell 36 17 74 44 19 58 0 Vincent Brisby 75 120 115 0 40 22 27 6 Troy Brown 2 0 16 22 95 41 53 123 159 Chris Burkett 37 102 101 41 35 20 57 78 77 Ken Burrough 32 43 76 80 61 154 137 131 73 111 9 109 Chris Calloway 18 31 40 69 86 97 98 133 117 37 10 Carlos Carson 11 24 61 187 131 111 74 146 89 15 Gerald Carter 0 1 14 81 113 75 76 89 Rich Caster 57 82 144 82 117 106 52 25 65 32 52 18 0 Jeff Chadwick 86 73 66 130 41 48 10 72 44 54 Wayne Chrebet 97 109 98 156 81 140 81 Willie Davis 0 93 133 112 83 84 80 64 Sean Dawkins 49 104 96 81 92 88 141 103 23 Floyd Dixon 80 90 56 45 64 21 4 Curtis Duncan 54 36 91 85 83 101 64 Quinn Early 68 15 30 67 87 106 114 156 108 115 28 8 Henry Ellard 28 98 112 67 98 202 187 156 123 91 108 175 131 113 73 12 Bert Emanuel 89 134 128 153 77 30 19 25 George Farmer 62 105 49 29 5 12 Ricky Feacher 4 0 8 16 48 83 59 40 44 Wally Francis 0 0 52 2 46 86 149 128 75 Byron Franklin 2 70 110 12 67 1 Oronde Gadsden 113 116 115 85 Reuben Gant 0 23 44 77 72 37 24 Walker Gillette 2 27 67 30 65 72 38 Jeff Graham 2 77 58 118 154 115 66 72 109 115 111 Willie Green 101 89 58 15 124 80 36 25 Alvin Harper 39 82 108 130 75 35 7 Duriel Harris 43 90 83 100 70 103 40 32 64 2 Jessie Hester 98 99 3 18 129 105 85 90 85 58 Randall Hill 56 105 76 54 26 65 89 Ike Hilliard 4 84 119 129 104 Mark Ingram 3 22 35 80 100 47 107 87 65 3 Qadry Ismail 29 100 78 53 0 0 147 96 148 Darrell Jackson 107 157 Mark Jackson 80 56 122 58 125 68 122 97 16 Willie Jackson 0 89 67 34 17 49 88 135 Ron Jessie 9 66 64 102 74 118 14 99 29 11 20 Charles Johnson 76 42 119 69 124 47 108 17 Vance Johnson 94 50 110 120 152 93 39 41 82 17 Ernie Jones 68 104 100 122 80 18 Hassan Jones 82 31 109 79 122 44 56 9 Lam Jones 67 52 42 98 53 Reggie Langhorne 1 73 35 123 89 71 63 86 122 Lionel Manuel 86 116 39 90 130 60 17 Henry Marshall 72 70 55 49 118 93 75 115 115 45 71 13 Eric Martin 76 98 120 152 157 121 104 134 113 37 Kelvin Martin 10 80 76 73 24 55 110 74 21 44 Keenan McCardell 1 47 18 95 131 146 125 119 151 147 Sam McCullum 32 3 75 26 71 98 123 75 13 43 Art Monk 98 125 53 103 181 140 134 91 129 167 113 155 87 52 76 11 Rob Moore 105 129 99 90 137 121 126 206 128 92 0 Stanley Morgan 63 113 176 139 141 77 100 101 106 209 85 74 67 66 Johnnie Morton 10 110 111 145 116 143 99 140 Bob Newland 32 70 74 61 Steve Odom 44 59 65 74 12 0 Barry Pearson 50 45 79 0 Brett Perriman 35 35 50 74 105 63 109 208 133 45 Peerless Price 57 97 141 Mike Pritchard 74 116 116 33 64 40 98 94 50 Ricky Proehl 104 89 92 130 95 3 43 117 97 35 68 87 Bo Rather 0 59 83 4 42 6 Andre Reed 94 115 105 139 188 145 185 116 124 187 54 142 119 110 60 16 Frank Sanders 100 105 126 133 101 111 74 Leslie Shepherd 1 73 74 89 134 28 69 Webster Slaughter 82 123 64 160 112 109 75 120 97 75 55 9 Dave Smith 58 95 32 2 JT Smith 0 62 78 97 23 9 7 68 137 160 130 110 35 Darryl Stingley 52 32 54 66 105 J.J. Stokes 76 25 97 125 61 71 101 Otto Stowe 13 40 78 7 Leonard Thompson 0 5 19 41 60 75 87 58 106 113 104 62 Michael Timpson 0 9 59 38 77 112 41 80 60 Hines Ward 26 106 97 133 Dokie Williams 44 75 123 135 63