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Plaxico Burress career statistics

There was never any doubt that Plaxico had the physical skills to excel as an NFL wide receiver. There was considerable doubt about whether he'd ever be able to get his head aligned properly.

I think most people agree that Burress quieted those doubts last season. He'll be in almost everyone's top 20 WRs this season and might even sneak into a few top 10s. He'd probably be viewed as a definite top 10 receiver if he weren't saddled with the twin fantasy evils of a conservative coach and a quarterback that's not exactly Peyton Manning. But he is saddled with those two things. Assuming that's not going to change any time soon, what is a reasonable projection for Burress?

Last season, he accounted for about 32 percent of the Steelers' receiving fantasy points, and that's a fairly typical number for a number one WR. Here is a list of each team's top WR and what percentage of his team's receiving fantasy points he accounted for:

FPT = fantasy points (receiving only)
TmFPT = team total fantasy points (receiving only)
PCT = 100 * (FPT / TmFPT)


Name                  TM  Year   FPT  TmFPT   PCT
-------------------------------------------------
David Boston         ari  2001   211   473   43.9
Terrell Owens        sfo  2001   239   547   43.3
Rod Smith            den  2001   203   476   42.0
Marvin Harrison      ind  2001   242   584   41.5
Kevin Johnson        cle  2001   163   423   38.7
Darrell Jackson      sea  2001   157   406   38.4
Jimmy Smith          jax  2001   185   487   38.0
Marty Booker         chi  2001   163   427   36.3
Randy Moss           min  2001   188   523   35.0
Laveranues Coles     nyj  2001   139   389   33.1
Joe Horn             nor  2001   180   546   33.0
Troy Brown           nwe  2001   159   458   32.7
Plaxico Burress      pit  2001   136   425   32.2
Curtis Conway        sdg  2001   166   464   32.0
Derrick Mason        ten  2001   166   524   31.8
Qadry Ismail         bal  2001   147   467   31.6
Tim Brown            oak  2001   174   548   31.1
Keyshawn Johnson     tam  2001   132   440   30.1
Raghib Ismail        dal  2001    98   324   29.4
Chris Chambers       mia  2001   129   453   28.7
Rod Gardner          was  2001    99   349   28.1
Amani Toomer         nyg  2001   136   490   27.6
Johnnie Morton       det  2001   140   504   27.6
Peerless Price       buf  2001   141   480   27.4
James Thrash         phi  2001   137   504   26.0
Torry Holt           ram  2001   178   712   25.0
Bill Schroeder       gnb  2001   146   584   25.0
Darnay Scott         cin  2001    93   401   23.4
Donald Hayes         car  2001    71   381   18.8
Tony Martin          atl  2001    72   483   15.1
Derrick Alexander    kan  2001    66   488   13.3

Now, in the Kordell Stewart era, the Steelers' passing game has produced receiving fantasy point totals of 425, 345, 425, 356, and 453, which averages out to right about 400. Thirty-two percent of 400 is 128, which would put Burress as just barely adequate as your fantasy squad's third WR. So, if you think Burress is a typical #1 WR and you think the Steeler offense will be about what it has been over the past few years, then what he did last season is about what you should expect from him.

But you may think Plaxico is better than a typical #1 WR, and you may think that the Steeler O will improve. Let's say they get it up to 450 receiving fantasy points, and let's say Burress gets 40 percent of those. That's 180 fantasy points for Burress, which would put him somewhere in the vicinity of #10. At least for now, I view that as his ceiling.

The guy is such a physical specimen. Every time I look at him, I want to move him 10 spots up my draft board. Exercises like this one help me reign myself in a bit.