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Laveranues Coles career statistics

In Coles' rookie season, he was a complete zero for fantasy purposes. As we all know, that's not uncommon for a rookie wide receiver. Last year, in his second season, Coles finished above the baseline, thereby putting himself on the map fantasy-wise.

I won't get into the issue of whether or not Coles' 2001 season should be called a "breakout year," but I do want to focus on the fact that his second season was his first legitimate fantasy year. In particular, I want to investigate whether receivers who become legitimate fantasy starters in their second season go on to have more productive careers than those that don't develop until their third or fourth seasons (like, say, Marty Booker or Derrick Mason).

So I looked at all receivers who debuted in 1970 or later, retired before 2000, and finished above the baseline in any season during their career. Take a quick look at this chart, and we'll talk afterward.

FSAB = First season above baseline
N = number of players in this category
ASAB = average number of seasons above the baseline for players in this category
CarVBD = average career VBD for players in this category


FSAB  N   ASAB  CarVBD
-----------------------
 1   39    4.5   168
 2   49    3.6   132
 3   31    3.7   132
 4   21    2.2    82
 5+  25    2.2    54

Let's walk through the second line there. It says that there were 49 receivers in the group whose first season above the baseline, like Coles', was their second season in the league. On average, those receivers went on to average 3.6 seasons above the baseline during their careers. On average, they amassed 132 career VBD points each. We could interpret those numbers as reasonable over/unders for Coles' career.

It looks like there is a pretty strong dividing line between the third and fourth years. Late bloomers (like Troy Brown) don't, in general, go on to have careers as productive as those who develop at the more usual time for receivers. That makes sense. Also believable is the fact that WRs who were above the baseline as rookies go on to have the best careers. It's interesting to note, though, that there is no difference at all between the 2nd-year and 3rd-year groups.

Just based on this, the fact that Laveranues Coles hit the scene a year earlier than Marty Booker did doesn't say anything about which is likely to enjoy a more productive career.

Complete data set