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Marvin Harrison career statistics

OK, now that we've heard the last of the "Harrison always fades down the stretch" talk, it's time to tackle the other issue that continually dominates discussion of Marvin Harrison: the lack of a decent #2 receiver. With Qadry Ismail coming to town, it does seem likely that Marvin will have the best running mate he's ever had.

But how will that affect his numbers? Common sense cannot answer this question, because it could point you in either direction. On the one hand, a better #2 takes some pressure -- and presumably some coverage -- off Marvin, leaving him open more often and thus increasing his numbers. On the other hand, a good #2 is going to be open more than a bad one is, and hence is going to draw some throws to himself -- maybe some throws that used to go to Harrison. So what's the net effect? Will a good #2 help Marvin's numbers or hurt them?

Michael Zangrilli did a study on this and found that, in general, there little or no correlation between the performances of elite #1 WRs and the performances of their #2 counterparts. Truthfully, those were the results I was expecting. But sometimes when you look at the same question, especially a slippery question like this, in a different way, you get different results. So I thought I'd narrow it down a bit, and look at it from a slightly different angle.

So here's the plan: I looked at the #1 and #2 WR of all teams from 1970-2001. I identified two-year periods where:

1. the #1 WR was the same in both years;
2. the #1 WR was among the league's top 10 receivers in the first year;
3. the #2 WR (whether it was the same guy or a different one) improved at least 12 spots from the first year to the second year;
4. the #2 WR in the second year was in the league's top 20 WRs.

Let's first take a look at the list, and then we'll talk about it below:

 TM  YR    #1 WR        Rank   #2 WR        Rank
------------------------------------------------
buf 1990 | A Reed          9 | J Lofton       38 
    1991 | A Reed          4 | J Lofton        9 

cin 1974 | I Curtis        2 | C Joiner       43 
    1975 | I Curtis        5 | C Joiner       18 

det 1994 | H Moore         6 | B Perriman     30 
    1995 | H Moore         3 | B Perriman      8 

gnb 1982 | J Lofton        4 | J Jefferson    35 
    1983 | J Lofton        4 | J Jefferson    15 

jax 1999 | J Smith         4 | K McCardell    33 
    2000 | J Smith        12 | K McCardell    17 

min 1977 | S White         3 | A Rashad       23 
    1978 | S White         8 | A Rashad        9 

min 1979 | A Rashad        3 | S White        32 
    1980 | A Rashad        6 | S White        17 

min 1993 | C Carter        5 | A Carter       26 
    1994 | C Carter       10 | J Reed         14 

phi 1974 | H Carmichael    6 | D Zimmerman    41 
    1975 | H Carmichael   16 | C Smith        20 

oak 1975 | C Branch        4 | F Biletnikoff  34 
    1976 | C Branch        1 | F Biletnikoff  17 

oak 1996 | T Brown        10 | J Jett         49 
    1997 | T Brown         8 | J Jett         14 

ram 1988 | H Ellard        1 | A Cox          39 
    1989 | H Ellard        6 | F Anderson     19 

ram 1995 | I Bruce         2 | T Kinchen      63 
    1996 | I Bruce         8 | E Kennison     17 

ram 1999 | I Bruce         6 | A Hakim        30 
    2000 | I Bruce         6 | T Holt          7 

sdg 1978 | J Jefferson     1 | C Joiner       47 
    1979 | J Jefferson     4 | C Joiner       18 

sea 1979 | S Largent       1 | S McCullum     31 
    1980 | S Largent       5 | S McCullum     19 

sea 1983 | S Largent       6 | P Johns        42 
    1984 | S Largent       4 | D Turner       15 

sfo 1988 | J Rice          2 | M Wilson       58 
    1989 | J Rice          1 | J Taylor        9 

sfo 1992 | J Rice          2 | J Taylor       58 
    1993 | J Rice          1 | J Taylor       14 

was 1973 | C Taylor        6 | R Jefferson    27 
    1974 | C Taylor        8 | R Jefferson    14 

was 1984 | A Monk          6 | C Muhammad     34 
    1985 | A Monk         13 | G Clark        19 

was 1990 | G Clark         3 | A Monk         25 
    1991 | G Clark         3 | A Monk         11 

So, the #1 WRs that added a solid #2 declined 55 percent of the time, whereas the complete set of comparable #1 WRs declined 72 percent of the time. With samples this size, there is a fairly small chance of a split like this happening due to chance, so this does look like a real effect.

But remember that this data set was selected by brainlessly searching through a database. We need to go back and look through to see if these pairs really do capture what we're trying to capture here, which is a significant improvement in the #2 WR. There are a couple of cases that clearly do not: for example, the 75-76 Raiders don't belong on this list. Biletnikoff had been there, and essentially producing the same numbers, forever. 1975 was just a slight off year for him, and it seems unlikely that defenses were altering what they were doing based on a blip in Fred's numbers. The 99-00 Jags, the 73-74 Redskins, and the 90-91 Redskins fall into the same category. The 77-78 and 79-80 Vikings probably shouldn't be included either. There are a few other borderline cases. I've provided links to career stats for each receiver, so you can decide for yourself. If you're feeling ambitious, you should also check the complete data set for cases that should have been included but weren't.

Overall, I'd say this study does support the notion that the addition of a solid #2 receiver helps the #1 receiver. Zangrilli's study supports the notion that the production of the #2 receiver has, in general, no impact on the #1 receiver. Neither study is conclusive and, on a question as tricky as this one, it's not too surprising to get conflicting results. I'm not sure there is a right answer here. If there is one, I'm sure we haven't found it yet.