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Drinen rambles about something having to do with:
Priest Holmes
Introduction to these player comments
Here's a list of all running backs since 1970 (besides Priest Holmes 2001 and Antowain Smith 2001) who increased their "VBD" by at least 100 points in their first year with a new team.
Name Year age TM G TotYd TotTD -------------------------------------------------- Gaston Green 1990 24 ram 15 284 1 1991 25 den 13 1115 4 1992 26 den 14 727 2 Charlie Garner 1998 26 phi 10 491 4 1999 27 sfo 16 1764 6 2000 28 sfo 16 1789 10 Jerome Bettis 1995 23 ram 15 743 3 1996 24 pit 16 1553 11 1997 25 pit 15 1775 9 Tyrone Wheatley 1998 26 nyg 4 52 0 1999 27 oak 16 1132 11 2000 28 oak 14 1202 10 Marcus Allen 1992 32 rai 16 578 3 1993 33 kan 16 1002 15 1994 34 kan 13 1058 7 Harvey Williams 1993 26 kan 7 191 0 1994 27 rai 16 1374 7 1995 28 oak 16 1489 9 Ahman Green 1999 22 sea 14 120 0 2000 23 gnb 16 1734 13 2001 24 gnb 16 1981 11 Jeff Moore 1981 25 sea 2 33 0 1982 26 sfo 9 686 8 1983 27 sfo 15 249 1 Lamar Smith 1999 29 nor 13 356 1 2000 30 mia 15 1340 16 2001 31 mia 16 1202 8 Butch Woolfolk 1984 24 nyg 15 145 1 1985 25 hou 16 1206 5 1986 26 hou 10 371 2 Craig Heyward 1993 27 chi 16 338 0 1994 28 atl 16 1114 8 1995 29 atl 16 1433 8 Most of the above players maintained their production in their second year with the new team, which would seem to indicate that "Priest was a very good back just waiting for the right situation" is at least as viable an explanation for Holmes' breakout as "Priest was playing over his head last year." I do think Holmes' numbers will decline a bit this year, simply because guys that post numbers that good almost always do. But there's no reason to expect anything more than the "normal" drop. So how much is the "normal" drop? Unfortunately, it's pretty large. Here's a list of all top-5 running backs since 1970 aged 27-29 (Holmes was 28 last year) who played 8 or more games in the following year:
Name Year age G FPT Year G FPT -------------------------------------------+----------------- Terry Allen 1996 28 16 280 | 1997 10 119 Mike Anderson 2000 27 14 256 | 2001 16 96 William Andrews 1982 27 9 149 | 1983 16 283 Albert Bentley 1987 27 12 161 | 1988 16 66 Earnest Byner 1990 28 16 191 | 1991 16 165 Roger Craig 1988 28 16 263 | 1989 16 194 Eric Dickerson 1987 27 12 181 | 1988 16 293 Eric Dickerson 1988 28 16 293 | 1989 15 200 Marshall Faulk 2000 27 14 374 | 2001 14 340 Chuck Foreman 1977 27 14 196 | 1978 14 156 Eddie George 2000 27 16 292 | 2001 16 151 Leroy Kelly 1971 29 14 183 | 1972 14 131 MacArthur Lane 1970 28 14 212 | 1971 13 107 Floyd Little 1971 29 14 174 | 1972 14 200 Lawrence McCutcheon 1977 27 14 205 | 1978 8 61 Lydell Mitchell 1976 27 14 223 | 1977 14 219 Lydell Mitchell 1977 28 14 219 | 1978 16 162 Chuck Muncie 1981 28 15 264 | 1982 9 131 Chuck Muncie 1982 29 9 131 | 1983 15 206 Christian Okoye 1989 28 15 221 | 1990 14 124 Walter Payton 1983 29 16 250 | 1984 16 271 Barry Sanders 1995 27 16 261 | 1996 16 236 Barry Sanders 1996 28 16 236 | 1997 16 319 Barry Sanders 1997 29 16 319 | 1998 16 202 Bo Scott 1970 27 13 163 | 1971 14 143 O.J. Simpson 1975 28 14 362 | 1976 14 230 Thurman Thomas 1993 27 16 206 | 1994 15 198 Wendell Tyler 1982 27 9 171 | 1983 14 150 Chris Warren 1995 27 16 255 | 1996 14 142 Ricky Watters 1996 27 16 263 | 1997 16 197 Charles White 1987 29 15 215 | 1988 12 35 Ken Willard 1970 27 14 164 | 1971 14 135 This group as a whole declined by about 23 percent in terms of fantasy points per game. If Holmes declines by the same amount, he'll likely land in the bottom half of the top 10 RBs. For reasons I can't completely justify, however, I think he'll end up better than that (barring injury, of course).
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