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Drinen rambles about something having to do with:
Darrell Jackson
Introduction to these player comments
Let's collect some basic factual data on Darrell Jackson:
Let's pretend that's all we know about him. Forget Holmgren. Forget Dilfer and Hasselbeck. Forget Shaun Alexander and Koren Robinson. Forget that Jackson isn't viewed as a guy with a tremendous amount of natural talent. Forget realignment and the schedule. Forget all that. If all you know is that he's a 24-year-old WR who was #16 last year, what should you expect him to do next year? You can probably guess how I'll answer that: by looking through recent history for all 23-year-old WRs who finished #16 and seeing how they did the next year. Well, unfortunately, that'll get you a sample size of one: Stacy Bailey 1983 -- he improved to 11th the next year. So we'll expand it a bit and include anyone who was aged 22-24, and finished between #12 and #20. That gives us a decent range, but leaves Jackson in the middle. In fact, it gives us 38 different WRs. Here they are, with a plus (+) next to the ones who improved their fantasy points per game the next year:
Name Year age G FPT rank NextYr G FPT rank ------------------------------------------+----------------------- F Anderson 1989 24 16 144 19 | 1990 16 135 12 +S Bailey 1983 23 14 123 16 | 1984 16 149 11 +F Barnett 1990 24 16 121 19 | 1991 15 118 23 +D Boston 2000 22 16 158 15 | 2001 16 211 3 B Brennan 1986 24 16 121 20 | 1987 13 96 23 E Brown 1986 24 16 123 19 | 1987 12 78 37 +M Carrier 1988 23 16 127 20 | 1989 16 196 3 +C Carson 1982 24 9 61 18 | 1983 16 187 3 +W Chandler 1980 24 16 134 13 | 1981 16 150 7 +D Clark 1981 24 16 137 14 | 1982 9 121 2 +G Clark 1985 23 16 123 19 | 1986 15 168 6 +M Clayton 1985 24 16 124 17 | 1986 15 178 4 +C Collinsworth1982 23 9 74 12 | 1983 14 143 11 C Conway 1995 24 16 183 12 | 1996 16 151 15 +A Freeman 1996 24 12 147 16 | 1997 16 197 2 J Galloway 1995 24 16 167 14 | 1996 16 153 13 W Gault 1983 23 16 134 12 | 1984 16 94 37 +E Givins 1986 22 15 145 13 | 1987 12 128 9 E Givins 1988 24 16 130 16 | 1989 15 97 35 T Glenn 1996 22 15 153 14 | 1997 9 55 66 C Hawkins 1993 24 16 123 17 | 1994 13 73 59 +M Jackson 1992 23 16 119 15 | 1993 15 123 15 M Jackson 1993 24 15 123 15 | 1994 9 42 76 B Johnson 1984 23 16 121 19 | 1985 16 101 35 K Johnson 1999 24 16 146 17 | 2000 16 66 62 V Johnson 1987 24 11 109 17 | 1988 16 119 23 E Kennison 1996 23 15 146 17 | 1997 14 41 77 +J Lofton 1978 22 16 119 12 | 1979 16 120 21 A Monk 1981 24 16 124 20 | 1982 9 52 31 H Moore 1992 23 12 120 14 | 1993 15 129 13 +H Moore 1993 24 15 129 13 | 1994 16 183 6 R Moore 1991 23 16 128 17 | 1992 16 98 28 +S Morgan 1978 23 16 113 14 | 1979 16 176 2 +T Owens 1997 24 16 141 20 | 1998 16 205 3 +M Pritchard 1992 23 16 116 17 | 1993 15 116 21 +A Reed 1987 23 12 105 19 | 1988 15 139 12 +A Reed 1988 24 15 139 12 | 1989 16 188 4 +D Turner 1984 23 16 131 15 | 1985 16 145 9 In terms of fantasy points per game, 55 percent of these guys improved and 45 percent declined. That's good news for Jackson. Their median rank the next year was 13th, which means that half of them were 13th or above and half were 13th or below. So if you believe that Jackson is a "typical" 24-year old WR coming off a #16 season (and if you're willing to assume he'll play at least 8 games next year), then you can say there's about a 55 chance that he'll improve his fantasy production this year, and that 13th is a fair over/under for his final rank among WRs. What on earth is a "'typical' 24-year-old WR coming off a #16 season"? Some of the guys on the list were working with QBs a lot better than Dilfer. Others were working with QBs worse than Dilfer. Some were in more pass-happy offenses, and some were in less pass-happy offenses. Some were working across from great WRs, and some were teamed with weak WRs. The hope, when doing a study like this, is that the subject -- Darrell Jackson in this case -- is in a situation, all things considered, that isn't too much different from the average in each of those categories (and the countless others that I didn't list). So is he? I don't know. If you're interested, you can fine-tooth comb the list by yourself. The point of this exercise is not to come up with a final projection for Darrell Jackson. Rather, the point is to come up with a starting point for your Darrell Jackson projection. The point is to figure out, roughly speaking, what the "default" projection for Jackson should be. Then you can adjust upward or downward based on your opinions about Jackson's actual situation. If you like his situation, move him up from the default position. If you think his situation is unfavorable, move him down. So the "default" ranking for Darrell Jackson is 13th. Here's the default for a few other WRs, computed the same way Jackson's was computed: Torry Holt's default is also 13th, Derrick Mason's is 21st, Peerless Price's is 24th. Chris Chambers' is 42nd. If you compute the default ranking for every WR (actually, just last year's top 50), and sort them from best to worst, you get a set of "default rankings." Here they are:
---last year--- sample "default"
Name pos age rank size rank
-----------------------------------+-------------------
D Boston wr 23 3 | 33 8
M Harrison wr 29 1 | 24 9
R Moss wr 24 5 | 60 11
T Owens wr 28 2 | 44 12
R Smith wr 31 4 | 26 12
D Jackson wr 23 16 | 38 13
T Holt wr 25 8 | 65 13
J Horn wr 29 7 | 53 15
D Mason wr 26 11 | 71 21
J Smith wr 32 6 | 25 22
C Conway wr 30 12 | 42 22
Q Ismail wr 31 18 | 29 24
P Price wr 25 21 | 65 24
M Booker wr 25 14 | 67 24
J Thrash wr 26 24 | 67 25
L Coles wr 24 23 | 56 25
K Johnson wr 26 13 | 75 26
K McCardell wr 31 19 | 29 27
T Brown wr 30 15 | 37 27
*T Brown wr 35 9 | 10 27
J Morton wr 30 22 | 38 28
P Burress wr 24 25 | 52 30
B Schroeder wr 30 20 | 40 30
H Ward wr 25 29 | 56 30
I Bruce wr 29 17 | 54 31
W Jackson wr 30 27 | 40 31
K Johnson wr 29 28 | 52 33
A Toomer wr 27 26 | 67 34
A Freeman wr 29 34 | 46 36
*C Carter wr 36 32 | 2 37
K Dyson wr 26 31 | 63 40
E Moulds wr 28 33 | 59 40
C Chambers wr 23 30 | 45 42
D Patten wr 27 35 | 51 42
R Gardner wr 24 39 | 64 42
I Hilliard wr 25 37 | 63 43
J Stokes wr 29 38 | 52 44
D Scott wr 29 41 | 51 46
J Jurevicius wr 27 45 | 59 46
M Westbrook wr 29 42 | 51 48
J McKnight wr 29 44 | 51 49
W Chrebet wr 28 49 | 46 50
T Pinkston wr 24 48 | 53 53
J Galloway wr 30 43 | 35 54
O Gadsden wr 30 47 | 32 54
*R Ismail wr 32 40 | 10 60
*J Rice wr 39 10 | 1 61
T Taylor wr 22 50 | 23 62
*J Graham wr 32 36 | 11 69
*R Proehl wr 33 46 | 9 92
The "sample size" column tells you how many comparable WRs were found. Anyone with less than 20 is marked with an asterisk (*) to alert you that small samples can wreak havoc with studies of this kind. Jerry Rice's "default" rank is based on a sample size of one, for example -- it's meaningless. If you want to investigate further, here you'll find an extremely large file containing the full list of comps for every WR listed above. Also keep in mind that this list is just a rearrangement of last year's top 50 WRs. It doesn't include rookies or guys like Ed McCaffrey and Koren Robinson who finished outside the top 50 for one reason or another. It is with great trepidation that I post a list like this, and I feel the need to point this out explicitly: this list is not my WR rankings for 2002. This list is the output from a certain procedure that I described above -- nothing more and nothing less. Essentially, it's a systematic way of taking last year's rankings and tweaking them to account for age and regression to the mean. I do believe that it can reasonably be interpreted as a starting point for a set of WR rankings for 2002. I won't go into any in-depth analysis of this list, but I will point out that this system loves Darrell Jackson. It ranks him 6th. It likes Peerless Price, Laveranues Coles, and Derrick Mason. It also likes a few older guys like Curtis Conway and Qadry Ismail. Among the guys this system doesn't like are Chris Chambers, Isaac Bruce, Eric Moulds, and Keyshawn Johnson. In most cases where this system has a player ranked very differently from the general consenus, the reason is obvious. Take Keyshawn Johnson, for instance. The system knows that he was 28th last year, but it doesn't know that Keyshawn has had seasons much better than that before, it doesn't know about Keyshawn's bizarre yards-to-TDs ratio of last year, and it certainly doesn't know about Jon Gruden taking over for Tony Dungy. There's good reason to believe that Keyshawn will significantly outperform the "typical" 30-year-old receiver coming off a 28th-ranked season. But there are some mysteries here. Why on earth is Chris Chambers ranked so low? On one level, that's an easy question to answer: he's ranked so low because, historically, players fitting his general description (age 24, ranked #30 last year) haven't, as a group, done very well. But why haven't they done well? And is Chambers different from them in a way that would allow him to buck the trend? Here is Chambers' list of comps:
Name Year age G FPT rank NextYr G FPT rank ------------------------------------------+----------------------- R Anthony 1998 22 15 117 33 | 1999 13 35 89 S Baker 1988 24 16 107 31 | 1989 15 37 78 D Bass 1979 23 16 93 33 | 1980 14 76 48 B Brooks 1987 23 12 90 27 | 1988 16 110 29 +B Brooks 1988 24 16 110 29 | 1989 16 115 26 +C Burkett 1986 24 14 101 30 | 1987 12 100 20 J Butler 1979 22 13 108 26 | 1980 16 121 22 +C Carter 1988 23 16 112 28 | 1989 16 128 24 J Chadwick 1983 23 16 85 34 | 1984 16 73 48 S Collins 1989 22 16 104 32 | 1990 16 62 65 S Dawkins 1994 23 16 104 32 | 1995 16 96 39 L Dawsey 1991 24 16 106 27 | 1992 15 83 42 P Dennard 1979 24 15 103 28 | 1980 16 97 34 F Dixon 1987 23 12 89 28 | 1988 14 55 60 T Dwight 1999 24 12 117 34 | 2000 14 59 67 H Dykes 1989 23 16 109 29 | 1990 10 66 57 K Edwards 1987 23 13 82 33 | 1988 8 9 113 +H Ellard 1984 23 16 97 32 | 1985 16 111 27 +H Ellard 1985 24 16 111 27 | 1986 9 67 54 D Gaffney 1978 23 16 86 27 | 1979 16 59 46 +R Green 1981 24 16 106 27 | 1982 9 64 16 A Hakim 1999 22 15 120 30 | 2000 16 99 40 +D Harris 1978 24 16 83 31 | 1979 15 99 30 J Hester 1986 23 13 99 31 | 1987 10 3 135 +I Hilliard 1999 23 16 119 32 | 2000 14 128 22 L Hill 1988 23 16 113 27 | 1989 16 86 42 D Howard 1994 24 16 103 33 | 1995 13 34 91 +D Jackson 2000 22 16 107 33 | 2001 16 157 16 C Johnson 1996 24 16 118 27 | 1997 13 68 57 H Jones 1988 24 16 108 30 | 1989 16 79 45 J Lewis 1998 24 13 116 34 | 1999 15 41 77 +D Logan 1978 24 16 82 32 | 1979 16 140 12 E McCaffrey 1992 24 16 91 33 | 1993 16 45 74 +T McGee 1988 24 16 104 33 | 1989 16 172 8 +A Monk 1980 23 16 97 33 | 1981 16 124 20 +R Moore 1990 22 15 104 33 | 1991 16 128 17 +R Moore 1992 24 16 98 28 | 1993 13 89 41 S Paige 1983 22 16 88 31 | 1984 16 80 44 +R Proehl 1992 24 16 92 31 | 1993 16 129 12 +A Rison 1989 22 16 107 31 | 1990 16 180 2 B Ryckman 1978 23 16 79 33 | 1979 14 17 80 C Sanders 1996 24 16 112 34 | 1997 15 67 58 +D Scott 1995 23 16 113 34 | 1996 16 113 32 D Scott 1996 24 16 113 32 | 1997 16 110 32 P Warrick 2000 23 16 110 31 | 2001 16 74 51 Knowing what we know now, it's easy to look back at this list and claim that guys like Shawn Collins and Lawrence Dawsey and Chris Sanders are bad comps for Chambers. After all, they stunk and Chambers doesn't. But don't be too blinded by a combination of hindsight (on Collins, Dawsey, et al) and expectations (for Chambers). The fact is that, objectively, these guys are reasonable comps for Chambers. It's very possible that, 5 years from now, we'll view Chambers the same way we now view Chris Sanders. Now, as I've written elsewhere, I'm in awe of Chambers' talent and am very high on him. His low standing on this list probably won't move him down my rankings. It does serve to remind me, though, that Chambers is far from a sure thing. If turns out to be a dud, no one should be terribly shocked. As I've written elsewhere, athletic young receivers like Chambers have some sort of spell on me. Studies like this help me curb my enthusiasm and keep me from reaching too far to grab Chambers. In order to help you decide whether this system is worth anything, I'll post, without commentary, last year's list. Here is how the system would have ranked the WRs one year ago today:
---last year--- sample "default"
Name pos age rank size rank
-----------------------------------+-------------------
R Moss wr 23 1 | 24 8
T Owens wr 27 3 | 57 12
M Harrison wr 28 2 | 40 12
D Boston wr 22 15 | 20 14
D Alexander wr 29 5 | 43 15
T Holt wr 24 7 | 51 15
R Smith wr 30 4 | 31 15
I Bruce wr 28 6 | 59 15
J Horn wr 28 9 | 63 19
E McCaffrey wr 32 8 | 26 20
J Smith wr 31 12 | 33 22
I Hilliard wr 24 22 | 48 23
*T Brown wr 34 11 | 14 25
D Mason wr 25 26 | 57 26
A Toomer wr 26 13 | 72 26
E Moulds wr 27 14 | 71 27
T Glenn wr 26 20 | 70 27
M Muhammad wr 27 16 | 72 29
A Freeman wr 28 18 | 63 29
W Chrebet wr 27 19 | 69 29
K Johnson wr 28 21 | 61 29
*C Carter wr 35 10 | 9 29
T Brown wr 29 24 | 52 31
B Schroeder wr 29 23 | 53 32
J Graham wr 31 27 | 31 33
K McCardell wr 30 17 | 36 33
O Gadsden wr 29 28 | 49 33
D Hayes wr 25 30 | 57 34
D Jackson wr 22 33 | 29 39
J McKnight wr 28 35 | 46 39
F Sanders wr 27 29 | 61 39
S Dawkins wr 29 37 | 44 39
M Robinson wr 25 34 | 62 40
C Johnson wr 28 32 | 59 41
P Warrick wr 23 31 | 49 41
C Conway wr 29 36 | 42 41
H Ward wr 24 44 | 51 42
A Hakim wr 23 40 | 48 43
D Ward wr 26 38 | 59 43
P Price wr 24 42 | 53 43
J Morton wr 29 39 | 48 44
A Connell wr 26 47 | 59 45
B Shaw wr 25 48 | 57 49
W Jackson wr 29 49 | 39 51
S Jefferson wr 31 46 | 22 53
Q Ismail wr 30 45 | 32 56
*T Mathis wr 33 41 | 8 62
*A Rison wr 33 43 | 7 70
NOTE: Irving Fryar and Jerry Rice were thrown out because of their sample sizes of zero and one, respectively.
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