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Drinen rambles about something having to do with:
Donovan McNabb
Introduction to these player comments
Fantasy-wise, I don't have a lot to say about McNabb. He's young. He's good. Here are the QBs that collected the most VBD in their first three years (as usual, the list includes all players whose career started in 1970 or later):
------- VBD -----------
Name First3yrs RestofCareer
-----------------------------------------------
Dan Marino 335 813
Jeff Garcia 291 0
Peyton Manning 200 63
Boomer Esiason 179 267
Kurt Warner 179 120
Daunte Culpepper 170 0
Donovan McNabb 169 0
Ken O'Brien 159 0
Randall Cunningham 151 677
Steve Grogan 146 156
Bernie Kosar 141 66
Bert Jones 131 256
Don Majkowski 126 0
Jim Kelly 120 288
Jim Plunkett 117 61
Mark Brunell 106 77
Jim Everett 102 268
Joe Ferguson 98 60
Terry Bradshaw 94 359
Tony Eason 91 59
Kordell Stewart 90 30
Jim Zorn 70 57
Archie Manning 67 96
Jay Schroeder 66 3
Doug Williams 60 65
Brett Favre 59 832
Aaron Brooks 56 0
Ken Anderson 53 551
Drew Bledsoe 53 164
Now what I want to talk about is Donovan McNabb the real NFL quarterback.... When I'm looking at a QB's stats, the first thing I look at is yards per attempt. This is a little counterintuitive, but yards per attempt -- unlike completion percentage, yards per completion, and yardage and TD totals -- is largely independent of the team's offensive system. You can get a high yards-per-attempt by throwing lots of short passes with a high completion rate. Or you can get a high yards-per-attempt by throwing lots of deep balls and completing just a few. High YPA figures come from all different sorts of offenses. In 2000, his first year as a starter, McNabb had an atrocious yards-per-attempt of 5.91, which was 32nd out of 37 QBs that attempted 200 or more passes. Last year, it was up a little bit to 6.56, which was 22nd of the 31 QBs that attempted 200 or more passes. Of course, McNabb has some obvious excuses.
Plenty of conservative offenses generate high YPA figures, so I don't buy the last one, but the first two are certainly legitimate. Even granting those extenuating circumstances, however, I claim McNabb's YPA is still very poor. Since 1970, there have been 89 QBs who attempted 500 or more passes in their first three years. Of those 89, McNabb's YPA (compared to the league average) ranks 79th. Here's the list:
AdjYPA = 100 * (YPA / League Average YPA)
(e.g. 134.4 means "34.3 percent better than league average."
80.5 means "19.5 percent below league average")
NOTE: this list only includes the first three years of each player's career
Name First 3 Yrs ATT Yard AdjYPA
------------------------------------+------------+-------
1. Kurt Warner 1998-2000 | 857 7821 | 134.3
2. Daunte Culpepper 1999-2001 | 840 6549 | 115.0
3. Boomer Esiason 1984-1986 | 1002 7932 | 112.6
4. Dan Marino 1983-1985 | 1427 11431 | 112.3
5. Ken O'Brien 1984-1986 | 1173 8980 | 108.6
6. Mark Rypien 1988-1990 | 988 7568 | 108.2
7. Peyton Manning 1998-2000 | 1679 12287 | 107.3
8. Pat Haden 1976-1978 | 765 5442 | 106.8
9. Brian Griese 1998-2000 | 791 5722 | 106.5
10. Jeff Garcia 1999-2001 | 1440 10360 | 106.0
11. Mark Brunell 1994-1996 | 930 6630 | 105.8
12. Jim McMahon 1982-1984 | 648 4831 | 104.7
13. Joe Ferguson 1973-1975 | 717 4953 | 104.7
14. Jim Everett 1986-1988 | 966 7046 | 104.4
15. Jay Schroeder 1985-1987 | 1017 7445 | 104.3
16. Gus Frerotte 1994-1996 | 966 6804 | 104.3
17. Steve Grogan 1975-1977 | 881 6041 | 103.6
18. Jim Kelly 1986-1988 | 1351 9771 | 103.4
19. Dan Fouts 1973-1975 | 626 4254 | 103.4
20. Bill Kenney 1980-1982 | 512 3717 | 103.3
21. Rodney Peete 1989-1991 | 660 4792 | 103.3
22. Steve McNair 1995-1997 | 638 4431 | 103.3
23. Bernie Kosar 1985-1987 | 1168 8465 | 103.2
24. Warren Moon 1984-1986 | 1315 9536 | 102.5
25. Craig Erickson 1992-1994 | 882 6094 | 102.3
26. Dennis Shaw 1970-1972 | 870 5986 | 102.0
27. Richard Todd 1976-1978 | 534 3582 | 101.5
28. Tony Eason 1983-1985 | 825 5941 | 101.0
29. Jon Kitna 1997-1999 | 712 4894 | 100.9
30. Neil O'Donnell 1991-1993 | 1085 7454 | 100.7
31. Ken Anderson 1971-1973 | 761 5123 | 100.7
32. Jim Zorn 1976-1978 | 1133 7541 | 100.0
33. Bob Avellini 1975-1977 | 690 4526 | 99.3
34. Joe Montana 1979-1981 | 784 5456 | 99.0
35. Neil Lomax 1981-1983 | 795 5578 | 98.8
36. Charlie Batch 1998-2000 | 985 6624 | 98.6
37. Bobby Hebert 1985-1987 | 554 3825 | 98.1
38. Trent Green 1997-1999 | 510 3441 | 98.1
39. Tony Banks 1996-1998 | 1263 8333 | 97.6
40. David Whitehurst 1977-1979 | 755 4974 | 97.4
41. Jim Plunkett 1971-1973 | 1059 6904 | 97.3
42. Bert Jones 1973-1975 | 722 4632 | 97.2
43. Don Majkowski 1987-1989 | 1062 7312 | 97.1
44. Randall Cunningham 1985-1987 | 696 4725 | 96.6
45. Jake Plummer 1997-1999 | 1224 8051 | 96.6
46. Tim Couch 1999-2001 | 1068 6970 | 96.2
47. Brett Favre 1991-1993 | 998 6530 | 96.1
48. Troy Aikman 1989-1991 | 1055 7082 | 95.8
49. David Archer 1984-1986 | 624 4180 | 95.3
50. Vinny Testaverde 1987-1989 | 1111 7454 | 95.1
51. Steve Young 1985-1987 | 570 3787 | 94.7
52. Shaun King 1999-2001 | 605 3854 | 93.8
53. Brian Sipe 1974-1976 | 508 3143 | 93.5
54. Randy Wright 1984-1986 | 628 4109 | 93.2
55. Mike Pagel 1982-1984 | 761 5060 | 93.2
56. Archie Manning 1971-1973 | 892 5587 | 93.2
57. Steve Fuller 1979-1981 | 724 4668 | 92.5
58. Steve Bartkowski 1975-1977 | 511 3135 | 92.4
59. Todd Collins 1995-1997 | 519 3218 | 92.3
60. John Elway 1983-1985 | 1244 8152 | 92.1
61. Kerry Collins 1995-1997 | 1177 7295 | 91.9
62. Trent Dilfer 1994-1996 | 979 6066 | 91.7
63. Joe Pisarcik 1977-1979 | 650 3979 | 91.7
64. Terry Bradshaw 1970-1972 | 899 5556 | 91.5
65. Doug Williams 1978-1980 | 1112 7014 | 91.3
66. Jeff George 1990-1992 | 1125 7025 | 90.0
67. Chris Miller 1987-1989 | 969 6144 | 89.5
68. Cade McNown 1999-2001 | 515 3111 | 88.9
69. Phil Simms 1979-1981 | 983 6095 | 88.8
70. Tommy Kramer 1977-1979 | 639 3872 | 88.8
71. Drew Bledsoe 1993-1995 | 1756 10556 | 88.7
72. Rick Mirer 1993-1995 | 1258 7548 | 88.7
73. Todd Blackledge 1983-1985 | 500 3156 | 88.6
74. Chuck Long 1986-1988 | 597 3701 | 88.4
75. Steve Walsh 1989-1991 | 810 5019 | 88.3
76. David Woodley 1980-1982 | 872 5400 | 88.2
77. Billy Joe Tolliver 1989-1991 | 677 4202 | 88.1
78. Steve Deberg 1978-1980 | 1201 7220 | 87.5
79. Donovan McNabb 1999-2001 | 1278 7546 | 87.1
80. Scott Brunner 1980-1982 | 600 3605 | 85.7
81. John Friesz 1990-1992 | 509 2994 | 85.2
82. Dan Pastorini 1971-1973 | 859 4895 | 84.9
83. David Klingler 1992-1994 | 672 3792 | 83.4
84. Craig Whelihan 1997-1999 | 557 3160 | 83.3
85. Jack Trudeau 1986-1988 | 680 3970 | 83.3
86. Mike Boryla 1974-1976 | 514 2823 | 82.9
87. Ryan Leaf 1998-2000 | 567 3172 | 81.9
88. Gary Huff 1973-1975 | 614 3271 | 81.2
89. Danny Kanell 1996-1998 | 653 3570 | 80.5
Now, since we're only looking at the first three years of everyone's career, McNabb's youth can't be used to explain away his low ranking on this list. So his lone remaining excuse is the poor receivers. That's unquestionably a factor, but you can find plenty of guys ahead of him on this list who also had some pretty poor pass-catchers to work with in their formative years -- Kerry Collins and Jeff Geoge, to name a couple. But hold on, Philly phaithful. Put those batteries down. There's more to the story. The other stat I look at when evaluating a QB statistically is his TD-to-interception ratio. Here's where McNabb shines. His first three years have featured 54 TDs and only 32 picks. That's darn good. Of those 89 QBs from the prior list, McNabb's TD-INT ratio (compared to league average) ranks 16th. Here's the list:
AdjTD/INT = 100 * ((TD/INT ratio) / (League Average TD/INT ratio))
NOTE: this list only includes the first three years of each player's career
Name First 3 Yrs TD INT AdjTD/INT
------------------------------------+---------+---------
1. Dan Marino 1983-1985 | 98 44 | 228.2
2. Brian Griese 1998-2000 | 33 19 | 212.0
3. Jeff Garcia 1999-2001 | 74 33 | 200.5
4. Ken O'Brien 1984-1986 | 56 35 | 195.7
5. Kurt Warner 1998-2000 | 62 31 | 192.2
6. Boomer Esiason 1984-1986 | 54 32 | 172.4
7. Bert Jones 1973-1975 | 30 32 | 170.4
8. Bernie Kosar 1985-1987 | 47 26 | 169.8
9. Jim McMahon 1982-1984 | 29 22 | 167.2
10. Tony Eason 1983-1985 | 35 30 | 162.9
11. Joe Montana 1979-1981 | 35 21 | 159.3
12. Pat Haden 1976-1978 | 32 29 | 159.3
13. Neil O'Donnell 1991-1993 | 38 23 | 158.4
14. Trent Green 1997-1999 | 23 11 | 158.3
15. Ken Anderson 1971-1973 | 30 23 | 157.5
16. Donovan McNabb 1999-2001 | 54 32 | 143.9
17. Mark Rypien 1988-1990 | 56 37 | 140.9
18. Daunte Culpepper 1999-2001 | 47 29 | 135.1
19. Joe Ferguson 1973-1975 | 41 39 | 134.3
20. Neil Lomax 1981-1983 | 33 27 | 132.1
21. Peyton Manning 1998-2000 | 85 58 | 131.1
22. Randall Cunningham 1985-1987 | 32 27 | 130.2
23. Jim Everett 1986-1988 | 49 39 | 123.2
24. Bobby Hebert 1985-1987 | 22 21 | 119.9
25. Jim Kelly 1986-1988 | 56 45 | 118.9
26. Shaun King 1999-2001 | 25 18 | 115.1
27. Charlie Batch 1998-2000 | 37 28 | 114.9
28. Chris Miller 1987-1989 | 28 31 | 114.1
29. Don Majkowski 1987-1989 | 41 34 | 113.1
30. Doug Williams 1978-1980 | 45 48 | 110.2
31. Tommy Kramer 1977-1979 | 28 29 | 109.6
32. Mark Brunell 1994-1996 | 34 27 | 109.0
33. Steve McNair 1995-1997 | 23 18 | 108.7
34. Bill Kenney 1980-1982 | 21 24 | 106.6
35. Jon Kitna 1997-1999 | 31 26 | 102.1
36. Phil Simms 1979-1981 | 39 42 | 100.5
37. Archie Manning 1971-1973 | 34 42 | 100.4
38. Brett Favre 1991-1993 | 37 39 | 100.0
39. Jay Schroeder 1985-1987 | 39 37 | 100.0
40. Steve Walsh 1989-1991 | 28 28 | 99.2
41. Steve Grogan 1975-1977 | 46 59 | 99.2
42. Jim Plunkett 1971-1973 | 40 58 | 97.8
43. Mike Boryla 1974-1976 | 20 29 | 97.7
44. Craig Erickson 1992-1994 | 34 31 | 97.6
45. Brian Sipe 1974-1976 | 19 24 | 95.9
46. John Elway 1983-1985 | 47 52 | 90.9
47. Billy Joe Tolliver 1989-1991 | 25 26 | 88.1
48. Scott Brunner 1980-1982 | 19 26 | 86.8
49. Danny Kanell 1996-1998 | 23 20 | 86.6
50. Jim Zorn 1976-1978 | 43 66 | 85.7
51. Rodney Peete 1989-1991 | 23 26 | 85.2
52. Gus Frerotte 1994-1996 | 30 29 | 84.9
53. David Woodley 1980-1982 | 31 38 | 84.8
54. Terry Bradshaw 1970-1972 | 31 58 | 81.9
55. Tim Couch 1999-2001 | 39 43 | 78.5
56. Mike Pagel 1982-1984 | 25 32 | 78.1
57. Rick Mirer 1993-1995 | 36 44 | 77.6
58. Jeff George 1990-1992 | 33 40 | 75.7
59. David Archer 1984-1986 | 18 27 | 75.1
60. John Friesz 1990-1992 | 13 16 | 74.9
61. Steve Deberg 1978-1980 | 37 60 | 74.5
62. Kerry Collins 1995-1997 | 39 49 | 74.2
63. Steve Bartkowski 1975-1977 | 20 37 | 74.0
64. Bob Avellini 1975-1977 | 25 44 | 73.8
65. Drew Bledsoe 1993-1995 | 53 58 | 73.1
66. Richard Todd 1976-1978 | 20 39 | 71.3
67. Dennis Shaw 1970-1972 | 35 63 | 70.5
68. Cade McNown 1999-2001 | 16 19 | 69.9
69. David Klingler 1992-1994 | 15 20 | 69.8
70. Steve Fuller 1979-1981 | 19 30 | 69.6
71. Warren Moon 1984-1986 | 40 59 | 67.9
72. Tony Banks 1996-1998 | 36 42 | 67.8
73. Troy Aikman 1989-1991 | 31 46 | 67.2
74. Randy Wright 1984-1986 | 21 33 | 66.0
75. Todd Collins 1995-1997 | 16 19 | 64.3
76. David Whitehurst 1977-1979 | 21 42 | 62.9
77. Vinny Testaverde 1987-1989 | 38 63 | 62.2
78. Chuck Long 1986-1988 | 19 28 | 61.6
79. Jake Plummer 1997-1999 | 41 59 | 56.4
80. Dan Fouts 1973-1975 | 16 36 | 55.6
81. Jack Trudeau 1986-1988 | 14 27 | 55.4
82. Joe Pisarcik 1977-1979 | 18 43 | 53.6
83. Dan Pastorini 1971-1973 | 19 50 | 51.0
84. Steve Young 1985-1987 | 21 21 | 47.8
85. Gary Huff 1973-1975 | 12 34 | 44.3
86. Todd Blackledge 1983-1985 | 15 25 | 44.1
87. Craig Whelihan 1997-1999 | 14 29 | 37.1
88. Trent Dilfer 1994-1996 | 17 43 | 35.0
89. Ryan Leaf 1998-2000 | 13 33 | 32.6
For the most part, guys with high YPAs also have good TD-INT ratios and guys with low YPAs have bad TD-INT ratios. McNabb has an extremely good TD-INT ratio and an extremely poor YPA. Interestingly, he's the opposite of Dan Fouts, who in his first three years had a good YPA (ranked 19th) but a terrible TD-INT ratio (80th). Aside from Fouts, no young passer in the last 30 years has sent signals as drastically contradictory as McNabb, and quite frankly I have no idea what to make of him. And when I watch the guy, I don't get any better idea. I've seen him thread the needle on some tough 20-yard passes, and I've seen him badly miss wide open receivers from close range. He's a real riddle, and I'll be watching with interest as his career unfolds.
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