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Drinen rambles about something having to do with:
Peerless Price
Introduction to these player comments
What kind of career will Peerless Price have? Here's a naive way to attempt to answer that question: find guys whose careers started like Price's, and then see how they turned out. In Price's three years in the NFL, he's posted "VBD" scores of -63, -13, and +12. That looks an awful lot like the start of Henry Ellard's career. In Ellard's first three years, his "VBD" scores were -63, -4, and +3. If Price turns out like Ellard, there'll be a lot of happy people in Buffalo. But the news isn't all good. Price's career also strongly resembles the first three years of Bo Rather's career: -72, -4, +12. Rather, who caught passes for the mid-70s Bears and Dolphins, never had another remotely successful season. So is the news mostly good or mostly bad for Price? I checked all WRs who debuted in 1970 or later (and retired before 2001) and found the 20 whose first three years most closely resemble Peerless Price's career to date. On average, those 20 WRs averaged 57 VBD points in the remainder of their careers. For a reference point, that's roughly the career total of O.J. McDuffie. To look at it another way, 57 points of VBD is about what Jimmy Smith had last season. I've got a lot of explaining to do here. Exactly what do I mean by "the 20 whose careers most closely resemble Peerless Price?" By what standard? I'll put all the gruesome details at the bottom of this comment, but all you really need to know is that I've come up with a quick and easy (and essentially arbitrary) way to size up two sets of numbers and score how closely they resemble each other. I call it a "similarity score" (yes, this is another idea stolen from Bill James). A score of 1000 indicates a perfect match, and anything less than that is an imperfect match. The further you get from 1000, the weaker the similarity is. For example, Price's first three years and Ellard's first three years get a similarity score of 988, which is pretty high. Price and Bo Rather score a 987. Here's the list of Price's comps:
Comps for Peerless Price
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
Peerless Price -63 -13 12 | 1000 | 0
Alvin Harper -65 -10 1 | 990 | 21
Henry Ellard -63 -4 3 | 988 | 329
Bo Rather -72 -4 12 | 987 | 0
Chris Burkett -71 0 15 | 983 | 0
Otto Stowe -66 -31 16 | 983 | 0
Jim Lash -68 0 0 | 979 | 0
Ron Jessie -71 0 0 | 978 | 112
Dokie Williams -46 -27 13 | 977 | 33
Ken Burrough -49 -31 10 | 976 | 275
Morris Owens -82 1 13 | 976 | 10
Ken Payne -64 5 -3 | 976 | 0
Bob Newland -44 3 11 | 975 | 0
Jim Robinson -48 -13 -10 | 975 | 0
Bobby Duckworth -81 -18 -6 | 972 | 0
Irving Fryar -81 9 15 | 970 | 253
Ike Harris -51 12 1 | 968 | 5
Michael Jackson -65 27 17 | 968 | 94
Preston Dennard -80 4 -3 | 966 | 12
Golden Richards -55 14 -1 | 966 | 0
Nate Lewis -75 -29 -9 | 966 | 0
----------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 57
----------------------------------------------------
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
Peerless Price -63 -13 12 | 1000 | 0
Frank Sanders -19 -11 10 | 968 | 10
O.J. McDuffie -86 -38 10 | 966 | 50
Sean Dawkins -57 -4 -23 | 966 | 21
The CarVBD column indicates how much VBD the player accrued after his first three years, because that's what we're interested in knowing about Price Also note that I've included the most similar active players, but because their careers aren't finished yet, they are not figured into the average. I don't want to oversell this idea. I doubt that this method of projecting Peerless Price's career is more accurate than any other semi-educated guess. But I do love this kind of exercise for a few reasons. First and foremost, it's interesting. Marty Booker's first three years were almost an exact match for Albert Connell's. Likewise, Plaxico Burress' career path so far is nearly identical to Irving Fryar's. Same for David Boston / Tony Hill, Torry Holt / Andre Rison, and Darrell Jackson / Art Monk. I consider myself richer just for knowing that. But aside from the esoteric knowledge, I think there's some wisdom to be gained here. Take a guy like Laveranues Coles. He showed a lot of improvement last year and I think there is a general sentiment that his best years are ahead of him. But six of his seven closest comps turned out to be complete zeros. By no means am I saying that Coles is doomed. But it's instructive to remember that it's not at all uncommon for someone to show Coles-like promise and then fade into obscurity without having another decent season. Compare Torry Holt and David Boston. Roughly speaking, Holt's first three seasons were: decent, great, good. Boston's were: worthless, good, great. Which of those two career paths has historically led to more success? Holt's, as it turns out. Whether those two will follow the historical trends remains to be seen, but those kinds of general historical trends are worth knowing about. Below, you'll find the comp lists for a few young WRs.
Comps for Kevin Johnson
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Johnson 25 -43 34 | 1000 | 0
Mel Gray 13 -69 34 | 974 | 247
Billy Parks 24 -35 0 | 971 | 0
Calvin Williams 5 -53 9 | 962 | 26
Vance Johnson -14 -52 27 | 962 | 54
Stephone Paige -1 -22 47 | 958 | 101
Mark Jackson -21 -44 13 | 953 | 46
Billy Johnson 2 -28 0 | 951 | 21
Jerry Butler 8 20 35 | 945 | 7
Jack Dolbin -5 -36 -9 | 945 | 0
Anthony Carter 21 10 60 | 944 | 122
James Lofton 34 20 45 | 943 | 508
Ken Burrow 45 14 42 | 943 | 0
Fred Barnett 12 14 50 | 941 | 34
Ahmad Rashad 6 -5 4 | 941 | 206
Brian Brennan -38 -52 19 | 940 | 10
Barry Pearson -15 -20 7 | 939 | 0
Bobby Johnson 19 -7 -15 | 937 | 0
Pat Tilley -30 -74 27 | 936 | 107
Ron Shanklin 20 34 20 | 934 | 77
James Scott 14 31 21 | 934 | 0
----------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 78
----------------------------------------------------
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Johnson 25 -43 34 | 1000 | 0
Darnay Scott 18 -6 -2 | 945 | 26
Terry Glenn 37 -60 -26 | 940 | 44
Keyshawn Johnson 16 11 61 | 939 | 74
Ricky Proehl -5 -15 0 | 937 | 26
Marvin Harrison 17 6 -3 | 935 | 347
Comps for Marty Booker
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
Marty Booker -79 -49 34 | 1000 | 0
Floyd Turner -74 -45 36 | 992 | 0
Walker Gillette -83 -50 0 | 974 | 2
Otto Stowe -66 -31 16 | 967 | 0
Dave Logan -72 -42 -1 | 966 | 46
Reggie Rucker -56 -66 22 | 965 | 181
Frank Grant -64 -44 66 | 964 | 44
Carlos Carson -89 -73 14 | 963 | 203
Calvin Muhammad -68 -53 -5 | 963 | 0
Brian Brennan -38 -52 19 | 961 | 10
Tim McGee -67 -57 -3 | 961 | 64
Paul Johns -78 -43 -16 | 960 | 0
John Taylor -98 -64 59 | 960 | 78
Nate Lewis -75 -29 -9 | 954 | 0
J.J. Birden -56 -45 -10 | 952 | 0
Mike Jones -80 -32 -19 | 952 | 0
Ken Burrough -49 -31 10 | 952 | 275
Eddie Bell -44 -61 8 | 951 | 0
Vance Johnson -14 -52 27 | 951 | 54
Bo Rather -72 -4 12 | 951 | 0
Mervyn Fernandez -87 -3 53 | 950 | 6
----------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 48
----------------------------------------------------
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
Marty Booker -79 -49 34 | 1000 | 0
Albert Connell -89 -66 35 | 981 | 0
O.J. McDuffie -86 -38 10 | 972 | 50
Curtis Conway -66 -39 63 | 964 | 73
Keith Poole -93 -60 -3 | 958 | 0
Bill Schroeder -107 -72 15 | 953 | 32
Muhsin Muhammad -69 -83 6 | 952 | 98
Eric Moulds -71 -80 67 | 952 | 76
Comps for Derrick Mason
1 2 3 4 5 SimScore CarVBD
----------------------------------------------------------------
Derrick Mason -97 -71 -111 9 37 | 1000 | 0
Tim Smith -98 -93 -95 64 35 | 961 | 0
Pete Mandley -98 -77 -91 33 -12 | 959 | 0
Yancey Thigpen -104 -92 -72 -30 41 | 956 | 67
Andre Hastings -101 -68 -62 1 -9 | 955 | 0
Gerald Carter -100 -96 -70 -9 10 | 954 | 0
Jim Smith -72 -63 -62 24 3 | 947 | 16
Brett Perriman -73 -74 -59 -30 12 | 942 | 105
Dwight Stone -97 -70 -94 -70 -9 | 941 | 0
Mark Ingram -114 -86 -73 -28 -3 | 940 | 1
Jon Staggers -65 -68 -56 5 -20 | 939 | 0
Ron Smith -82 -63 -96 -67 0 | 939 | 0
Reggie Langhorne -107 -29 -72 14 -19 | 938 | 16
Charles Wilson -100 -67 -92 -83 -6 | 935 | 0
Leo Lewis -89 -36 -77 5 -46 | 934 | 0
Haywood Jeffires -106 -97 -34 43 55 | 934 | 63
Leslie Shepherd -107 -46 -41 -26 11 | 933 | 0
Ray Jarvis -79 -74 -71 -62 2 | 933 | 44
Wendell Davis -86 -51 -34 26 -2 | 933 | 0
Isaac Hagins -84 -59 -77 -12 -50 | 932 | 0
Robert Clark -113 -72 -21 30 -4 | 932 | 0
--------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 16
--------------------------------------------------------------
1 2 3 4 5 SimScore CarVBD
----------------------------------------------------------------
Derrick Mason -97 -71 -111 9 37 | 1000 | 0
Jake Reed -104 -78 -99 32 50 | 975 | 93
Keenan McCardell -91 -58 -90 -24 15 | 961 | 91
James Thrash -112 -100 -112 -25 7 | 956 | 0
Amani Toomer -114 -83 -57 34 55 | 949 | 7
Jeff Graham -102 -15 -48 9 34 | 948 | 4
Joe Horn -112 -108 -97 -24 72 | 946 | 52
James Jett -11 -83 -95 -31 37 | 938 | 1
Bill Schroeder -107 -72 15 14 17 | 935 | 0
David Patten -80 -105 -105 -50 -12 | 934 | 0
Comps for James Thrash
1 2 3 4 5 SimScore CarVBD
----------------------------------------------------------------
James Thrash -112 -100 -112 -25 7 | 1000 | 0
Mark Ingram -114 -86 -73 -28 -3 | 972 | 1
Gerald Carter -100 -96 -70 -9 10 | 968 | 0
Yancey Thigpen -104 -92 -72 -30 41 | 962 | 67
JoJo Townsell -89 -100 -114 -104 0 | 954 | 0
Jeff Groth -99 -96 -50 -16 -24 | 951 | 0
Dwight Stone -97 -70 -94 -70 -9 | 949 | 0
Brett Perriman -73 -74 -59 -30 12 | 948 | 105
Leslie Shepherd -107 -46 -41 -26 11 | 946 | 0
Ron Smith -82 -63 -96 -67 0 | 946 | 0
Charles Wilson -100 -67 -92 -83 -6 | 945 | 0
Andre Hastings -101 -68 -62 1 -9 | 945 | 0
Quinn Early -40 -94 -79 -36 -6 | 945 | 42
Michael Timpson -108 -100 -45 -55 -28 | 944 | 3
Pete Mandley -98 -77 -91 33 -12 | 944 | 0
Ray Jarvis -79 -74 -71 -62 2 | 942 | 44
Billy Davis -119 -115 -112 -34 -108 | 941 | 0
Chris Calloway -90 -72 -53 -36 -22 | 939 | 18
Tim Smith -98 -93 -95 64 35 | 937 | 0
Freddie Scott -34 -82 -80 -37 -10 | 936 | 84
Alexander Wright -96 -87 -63 -36 -67 | 933 | 0
--------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 18
--------------------------------------------------------------
1 2 3 4 5 SimScore CarVBD
----------------------------------------------------------------
James Thrash -112 -100 -112 -25 7 | 1000 | 0
David Patten -80 -105 -105 -50 -12 | 964 | 0
Joe Horn -112 -108 -97 -24 72 | 964 | 52
Keenan McCardell -91 -58 -90 -24 15 | 963 | 91
Derrick Mason -97 -71 -111 9 37 | 956 | 0
James McKnight -100 -110 -108 -15 -76 | 952 | 0
Troy Brown -104 -108 -103 -93 -20 | 951 | 42
Jake Reed -104 -78 -99 32 50 | 942 | 93
Comps for Plaxico Burress
1 2 SimScore CarVBD
-------------------------------------------------
Plaxico Burress -82 7 | 1000 | 0
Irving Fryar -81 9 | 997 | 269
Preston Dennard -80 4 | 994 | 12
Morris Owens -82 1 | 994 | 23
Frank Lewis -76 10 | 991 | 107
Gordon Jones -84 -4 | 985 | 0
Mervyn Fernandez -87 -3 | 984 | 60
Chris Burkett -71 0 | 981 | 15
Ron Jessie -71 0 | 980 | 112
Steve Holden -69 0 | 980 | 0
Billy Ryckman -74 -4 | 980 | 0
Ken Payne -64 5 | 980 | 0
Jim Lash -68 0 | 978 | 0
Bob Chandler -74 21 | 978 | 196
Bo Rather -72 -4 | 977 | 12
Kelvin Edwards -88 -9 | 977 | 0
Lonzell Hill -60 4 | 975 | 0
Aundra Thompson -80 -17 | 973 | 0
Bobby Duckworth -81 -18 | 973 | 0
Stephen Baker -63 0 | 972 | 0
Stacey Bailey -80 33 | 972 | 47
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AVERAGE 43
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1 2 SimScore CarVBD
-------------------------------------------------
Plaxico Burress -82 7 | 1000 | 0
Az-zahir Hakim -83 0 | 991 | 0
Cris Carter -91 3 | 986 | 620
Ed McCaffrey -89 -1 | 983 | 141
Laveranues Coles -66 10 | 981 | 0
Qadry Ismail -77 -9 | 978 | 46
Comps for David Boston
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
David Boston -60 47 82 | 1000 | 0
Tony Hill -79 35 68 | 970 | 181
Mark Carrier -38 18 87 | 962 | 2
Dwight Clark -76 46 40 | 961 | 207
Ricky Sanders -61 -11 79 | 959 | 31
Mark Duper -95 69 76 | 958 | 181
Stacey Bailey -80 33 47 | 954 | 0
Stanley Morgan -9 28 76 | 949 | 239
Drew Pearson -14 66 67 | 946 | 151
Carl Pickens -53 -13 70 | 946 | 190
Rich Caster -20 13 87 | 946 | 121
Al Toon -23 63 51 | 944 | 31
Flipper Anderson -76 35 25 | 944 | 32
Michael Jackson -65 27 17 | 940 | 94
Wes Chandler -24 43 33 | 940 | 356
Steve Largent 22 60 80 | 935 | 593
Gary Clark 15 66 79 | 934 | 264
Andre Rison 0 71 64 | 932 | 278
Mervyn Fernandez -87 -3 53 | 929 | 6
Bruce Hill -48 48 -11 | 928 | 0
Charlie Smith -68 27 0 | 926 | 3
----------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 148
----------------------------------------------------
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
David Boston -60 47 82 | 1000 | 0
Terrell Owens -39 26 81 | 971 | 224
Antonio Freeman -103 31 82 | 960 | 162
Herman Moore -90 28 23 | 928 | 342
Comps for Torry Holt
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
Torry Holt -2 89 49 | 1000 | 0
Andre Rison 0 71 64 | 976 | 278
Al Toon -23 63 51 | 966 | 31
Sterling Sharpe -23 108 38 | 966 | 349
Drew Pearson -14 66 67 | 964 | 151
Anthony Miller -33 78 27 | 957 | 212
Gary Clark 15 66 79 | 952 | 264
Kevin House -14 75 3 | 952 | 46
Wes Chandler -24 43 33 | 944 | 356
Steve Largent 22 60 80 | 942 | 593
Lynn Swann -33 83 -4 | 940 | 157
Fred Barnett 12 14 50 | 939 | 34
Jerome Barkum -28 61 8 | 937 | 25
Stanley Morgan -9 28 76 | 936 | 239
Jerry Butler 8 20 35 | 936 | 7
Mike Quick -56 128 56 | 933 | 203
Wesley Walker 26 80 -12 | 933 | 225
Nat Moore 12 33 18 | 932 | 173
James Scott 14 31 21 | 930 | 0
Ron Shanklin 20 34 20 | 928 | 77
Cris Collinsworth 51 38 52 | 926 | 126
----------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 177
----------------------------------------------------
1 2 3 SimScore CarVBD
------------------------------------------------------
Torry Holt -2 89 49 | 1000 | 0
Rob Moore -4 24 6 | 926 | 135
Comps for Laveranues Coles
1 2 SimScore CarVBD
-------------------------------------------------
Laveranues Coles -66 10 | 1000 | 0
Ken Payne -64 5 | 993 | 0
Frank Lewis -76 10 | 989 | 107
Lonzell Hill -60 4 | 988 | 0
Jim Lash -68 0 | 987 | 0
Steve Holden -69 0 | 987 | 0
Stephen Baker -63 0 | 985 | 0
Golden Richards -55 14 | 984 | 0
Chris Burkett -71 0 | 984 | 15
Ike Harris -51 12 | 984 | 7
Ron Jessie -71 0 | 983 | 112
Irving Fryar -81 9 | 983 | 269
Michael Jackson -65 27 | 982 | 112
Henry Ellard -63 -4 | 981 | 332
Ray Rhodes -57 19 | 981 | 0
Bob Chandler -74 21 | 981 | 196
Randall Hill -48 12 | 981 | 0
Charlie Smith -68 27 | 980 | 3
David Knight -56 21 | 979 | 0
Preston Dennard -80 4 | 979 | 12
Bo Rather -72 -4 | 978 | 12
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AVERAGE 59
-----------------------------------------------
1 2 SimScore CarVBD
-------------------------------------------------
Laveranues Coles -66 10 | 1000 | 0
Plaxico Burress -82 7 | 981 | 0
Comps for Darrell Jackson
1 2 SimScore CarVBD
-------------------------------------------------
Darrell Jackson -3 27 | 1000 | 0
Art Monk -3 27 | 999 | 289
Stanley Morgan -9 28 | 992 | 316
Brian Blades 10 27 | 986 | 53
Dave Smith -18 27 | 984 | 0
Jerry Butler 8 20 | 980 | 42
James Scott 14 31 | 978 | 22
Nat Moore 12 33 | 978 | 192
Mike Siani 14 32 | 977 | 0
George Farmer -15 38 | 977 | 0
Andre Reed -15 13 | 973 | 397
Earnest Gray -21 36 | 972 | 77
Fred Barnett 12 14 | 971 | 84
Mike Pritchard -29 23 | 969 | 10
Ron Shanklin 20 34 | 968 | 98
Rich Caster -20 13 | 968 | 209
Willie Green -3 -3 | 967 | 4
Henry Marshall -1 -2 | 967 | 93
Lionel Manuel -16 7 | 966 | 22
Webster Slaughter -20 44 | 966 | 72
Wes Chandler -24 43 | 964 | 389
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AVERAGE 118
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1 2 SimScore CarVBD
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Darrell Jackson -3 27 | 1000 | 0
Rob Moore -4 24 | 995 | 141
Bert Emanuel -19 14 | 970 | 50
Gruesome details (as promised): Penalty = [ | (player1 rookie "VBD") - (player2 rookie "VBD") | + 2 * | (player1 2nd-year "VBD") - (player2 2nd-year "VBD"} | + 3 * | (player1 3rd-year "VBD") - (player2 3rd-year "VBD"} | + . . . + n * | (player1 nth-year "VBD") - (player2 nth-year "VBD"} | ] / [ 1 + 2 + 3 + ... + n ] SimScore = 1000 - Penalty
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