|
Drinen rambles about something having to do with:
Jerry Rice
Introduction to these player comments
Rice's records are astonishing. The difference between Jerry and #2 (currently Cris Carter) in career receiving TDs is greater than the distance between Carter and #20. The difference between Jerry and #2 in career receiving yards is greater than the distance between #2 and #50. Except for Payton and Emmitt, he's got more receiving yards than anyone else has yards from scrimmage. Are Jerry Rice's records unbreakable? Definitely not. Arguments that they are usually follow roughly along these lines: "to break Rice's record for TD receptions, someone would need to catch 12 TD passes a year for 16 years." Well, he wouldn't need to do exactly that, because he'd be allowed to throw some 15- or 17-TD seasons in there too. But the reason that argument doesn't fly is because, impressive as that feat is, we know it's not impossible. In fact, the very existence of Jerry Rice is all the proof you need that Jerry Rice's records are not unbreakable. There's no reason why someone couldn't come along who is just like Jerry Rice except a tiny bit better. But you don't even need that. All you need is someone who's just like Jerry Rice, but who didn't tear his ACL at the age of 35 or someone who's just like Jerry Rice but had a Moss-like rookie year or someone who's just like Jerry Rice but didn't miss a few games because of a strike. Or someone who's just like Jerry Rice, but plays in an era where the rules favor the passing game a little more. That's not to say that people like Jerry Rice are easy to come by. They're obviously not. But they do exist. As proof, I give you Jerry Rice. The only records that are truly safe are the ones that were set in dramatically different conditions. Whoever holds the various records for drop-kicks can rest easy. George Blanda probably holds various records for most field goals kicked by a QB or some such nonsense. Those are safe because QBs don't kick field goals anymore, and I'm pretty confident that they never will again. So, assuming no unforeseen drastic changes in the way the game is played, I do think Rice will probably live to see most or all of his records broken. But I don't think anyone currently playing will do it. Randy Moss is obviously the man with the best shot, and in fact he's ahead of Rice's pace in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs.
First 4 years:Receptions Rec. Yards Rec. TDs ------------------------------------------------------------ M Harrison 311 R Moss 5396 R Moss 53 A Rison 308 J Rice 4881 J Rice 49 R Moss 308 J Lofton 4306 J Jefferson 40 K Johnson 305 S Sharpe 4280 A Rison 37 A Toon 292 I Bruce 4206 A Freeman 36 F Sanders 285 G Clark 4149 J Galloway 36 W Chrebet 283 M Harrison 4141 D Turner 36 S Sharpe 281 A Rison 4123 C Pickens 35 I Bruce 280 J Galloway 4122 M Quick 34 J Rice 264 K Johnson 4108 M Clayton 33 Fantasy Points VBD points --------------------------------------- R Moss 867 J Rice 477 J Rice 831 R Moss 384 J Galloway 672 I Curtis 279 J Jefferson 650 J Jefferson 276 A Rison 635 M Quick 266 M Harrison 613 S Largent 240 K Johnson 609 M Clayton 237 I Bruce 590 C Branch 225 M Quick 589 A Rison 221 A Freeman 588 A Freeman 217 NOTE: these lists include all players (and only players) whose careers started in 1970 or later. Note that, despite the better raw numbers, Rice's VBD through four years is quite a bit better than Moss', which indicates that Rice stood out from his peers more. But that's beside the point. We're talking about Rice's receiving yards and receiving TDs records. In his next four years, Rice had 5392 yards and 54 TDs. Wow. Look how close those figures are to Moss' first four years: 5396 yards and 53 TDs. So if Moss exactly duplicates his last four years, he'll still have a slim edge on Rice. In the next four years, Rice had 6104 yards and 51 TDs. So if Moss maintains his exact current pace for 8 more years, he'll be about even with Rice (a little behind on yards and a little ahead on TDs). And then when he's done with that, he needs to pile on another 4000+ yards and 30+ TDs plus whatever Rice gets between now and retirement. But now I'm falling into the trap I warned about in the opening paragraphs of this comment. What Moss needs to do is doable. I just don't happen to think Moss is the guy who'll do it. Even if he's capable of it, I don't see him sticking around. Randy sometimes has the air of a man who thinks that being an NFL superstar is more trouble than it's worth (and I don't mean that as an insult -- just an observation).
|