Introduction to these player comments
Index of player comments
Glossary of terms
Donte Stallworth career statistics

If you read a lot of fantasy football articles, you'll probably read four or five this year that instruct you to never ever draft a rookie wide receiver in a non-keeper league.

I hate advice like this.

Now, I'm not going to dispute the fact that rookie wide receivers very rarely post big numbers. They rarely even post decent numbers. But I bristle at the thought of using that as an excuse to cross all rookie wideouts off my list. If I hear that, say, only 10 percent of all WRs drafted in the first round have good rookie years, I don't think, "forget rookie WRs." I think, "OK, let's roll up our sleeves and figure out which ones are going to be in the 10 percent."

Last year, I tried to find some common threads that tied the successful rookie wideouts together. I was unsuccessful. I looked at the issue pretty hard and failed to find any clues that might point us toward the gems. The few successful rookie WRs from the past have come from good teams, bad teams, teams with good QBs, teams with bad QBs, teams with good running games, team with bad running games, teams with an established star receiver, teams with no other receivers, and so on. You just never know where they're going to strike. 2001 provided further evidence of this, as the top rookie wideout, Chris Chambers, was the 9th receiver drafted, and he was drafted by a team with a notorious inability to produce decent fantasy receivers. With the full aid of hindsight, it's easy to say that Chambers succeeded because he has amazing talent, but it's not like David Terrell and Koren Robinson don't.

So where does that leave us? About all we have to go on are the dozens and dozens of scouting reports that pop up around draft time. Personally, I don't see how these are of any use. Essentially, they all look like this:

Rookie Receiver X has great speed and size, but his attitude may be a problem. Still, most scouts feel he will succeed in the NFL.

Rookie Receiver Y has only average speed and size, but he has had success at every level. Most scouts feel he will succeed in the NFL.

Rookie Receiver Z has only average speed, but he has great hands and runs great routes. Most scouts feel he will succeed in the NFL.

And even if you're a religious watcher of college football, you're only seeing the receivers for a few plays a game. I just don't see any possible way to predict whether this year's rookie sensation will be Stallworth or Walker or Bryant or Gaffney or someone else or no one at all.

Now, maybe you can read the scouting reports better than I can. Maybe you can see things there that I don't. Maybe you can detect who will fit into which system better than I can. If so, go ahead and pay your money and take your chances, but I honestly believe that -- as much as I hate to say this -- I will never ever draft a rookie wide receiver in a non-keeper league.

One more thing. For those of you who still want to try and beat the odds, consider this:

             # of rookie WRs      # of rookie WRs
Decade     above the baseline      in the top 10
-------------------------------------------------
 70s               22                   5
 80s               17                   4
 90s               12                   1

No rookie WR was above the baseline in 2000. Last year, Chris Chambers was the baseline.

Not only is the situation bad, it looks to be getting worse.