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Drinen rambles about something having to do with:
Hines Ward
Introduction to these player comments
Ward's 2001 season was notable for the extent to which his fantasy production depended on short passes. For the purposes of this discussion, we'll define a "short pass" to be one which is caught 10 yards (or less) from the line of scrimmage, including passes caught behind the line. On short passes, Ward had 74 catches for 635 yards and 4 scores last season. That's good for 88 fantasy points on short passes. Only Rod Smith, Jimmy Smith, Marvin Harrison, and Terrell Owens had more. Also, 66 percent of Ward's total fantasy production came from short passes, which is second only to Rod Smith. Here's the list of all WRs who ended up with at least 100 total fantasy points last year:
fantasy points on Total PCT from
Name short passes fant. points short passes
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Rod Smith 136 203 66.7
Hines Ward 88 133 66.0
Jimmy Smith 111 185 60.0
J.J. Stokes 55 101 54.9
Ike Hilliard 56 104 53.5
Keenan McCardell 78 147 52.8
Qadry Ismail 71 148 48.0
Marty Booker 78 163 47.7
Troy Brown 74 159 46.5
Jerry Rice 78 168 46.3
Tim Brown 81 174 46.3
Eric Moulds 55 121 45.5
Marvin Harrison 106 243 43.7
Kevin Johnson 71 164 43.4
Terrell Owens 97 239 40.5
Amani Toomer 54 136 39.4
Keyshawn Johnson 52 133 39.3
Joe Horn 70 181 38.9
Laveranues Coles 53 140 37.8
Jeff Graham 38 111 34.5
Bill Schroeder 47 146 32.3
Curtis Conway 52 166 31.2
Kevin Dyson 38 125 30.6
David Patten 36 117 30.3
Darrell Jackson 46 157 29.5
Randy Moss 55 188 29.4
David Boston 62 211 29.4
James Thrash 40 137 29.2
Derrick Mason 48 167 28.7
Johnnie Morton 38 140 27.2
Isaac Bruce 40 149 26.7
Torry Holt 46 178 25.9
Chris Chambers 30 129 23.4
Plaxico Burress 29 137 21.5
Peerless Price 24 141 16.8
I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing to be near the top of this list. But in Ward's case, I do. This next list, which shows each WR's yards-per-catch on short passes, is why:
SHORT PASSES ONLY Name REC Yards YPC --------------------------------------------- Bill Schroeder 31 353 11.4 Qadry Ismail 49 530 10.8 Laveranues Coles 33 348 10.5 Jeff Graham 25 263 10.5 Terrell Owens 65 669 10.3 Chris Chambers 24 242 10.1 Johnnie Morton 38 381 10.0 Isaac Bruce 28 277 9.9 Joe Horn 47 464 9.9 Rod Smith 89 875 9.8 Torry Holt 41 401 9.8 Randy Moss 51 494 9.7 Jimmy Smith 78 750 9.6 David Boston 53 501 9.5 Tim Brown 68 627 9.2 Ike Hilliard 35 316 9.0 Jerry Rice 53 477 9.0 Darrell Jackson 45 403 9.0 Derrick Mason 47 418 8.9 Keenan McCardell 68 596 8.8 Marvin Harrison 80 701 8.8 Eric Moulds 49 429 8.8 Amani Toomer 41 357 8.7 Kevin Dyson 30 261 8.7 Hines Ward 74 635 8.6 Kevin Johnson 56 470 8.4 Curtis Conway 34 278 8.2 Troy Brown 76 620 8.2 David Patten 30 235 7.8 Plaxico Burress 30 234 7.8 Keyshawn Johnson 67 521 7.8 J.J. Stokes 36 252 7.0 Marty Booker 79 539 6.8 Peerless Price 27 177 6.6 James Thrash 43 280 6.5 Note that Ward ranks near the bottom of this list. He averaged under 9 yards per catch on his short receptions, which was 27th of the 34 receivers listed here. Ward was racking up points on short passes not because he was doing a lot with his short pass opportunities, but because he was getting so many of them. In the short term, this could be good news. The fact that Ward had almost as many short passes directed his way as anyone in the league says that the Steelers seem committed to getting him the ball. I don't think it bodes well for Ward's long term prospects, though. The ability to catch a lot of short passes (and not take them very far) is useful, but it seems to me to be a relatively replaceable talent. In short, it's a lot more likely that some of Ward's short looks start going to someone else than it is that Ward starts taking someone else's longer passes. Thus, I see more downside than upside for Ward.
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